• A Transportation Compromise Still in the Cards?

    Following the apparent defeat of the GOP transportation package in the Senate Finance Committee, Gov. Timothy M. Kaine appealed to the fractious General Assembly leadership yesterday to keep working on a transportation compromise. “We need everyone to stay at the table. I’m not taking my marbles and going home,” said the Governor, as quoted by Michael Hardy and Jeff E. Schapiro in the Times-Dispatch.

    No additional work would have been necessary if the Governor had exercised some restraint over his fellow Democrats in the Senate who joined with Sen. John J. Chichester, R-Northumberland, to back a competing proposal and scuttle the GOP package in the process. Kaine has done a lot of posturing in front of the microphones, but if he has done anything constructive to negotiate a compromise, no evidence of it has surfaced in press reports.

    Not that I’m looking for a deal at this point. Anything resulting from a union of the Chichester/Democrat faction and the Senate/House GOP faction would be too atrocious to contemplate.


  • The Empire Strikes Back

    The GOP compromise package for transportation collapsed yesterday when the Axis of Taxes… er, I meant the Senate Finance Committee… endorsed a competing road-funding mechanism that is certain to get voted down in the House of Delegates. Working with Senate Democrats, Senate Finance Chair John H. Chichester, R-Northumberland, engineered a statewide gasoline tax instead.

    Writing in the Washington Post, Amy Gardner and Tim Craig summed up the Senate logic with this quote from Sen. Janet D. Howell, D-Fairfax:

    A reasonable plan does not take money from public education, higher education, health care and public safety. Especially, it doesn’t take money from our sick and our disabled neighbors.

    Yeah, it’s really tragic how the state has been starving Virginia’s widows and orphans. The state budget is only 20 percent higher this biennium than the previous one. Pardon me while I barf.

    Although the Senate acted for entirely wrong reasons — the idea that taking surplus General Fund revenues would rip off the sick and disable is ludicrous — the end result will be positive if it collapses the road-funding compromise crafted by Senate-House Republicans. Here’s the real reason why that dog’s breakfast of tax increases and General Fund revenues was so bad: It would, in effect, subsidize the most profligate drivers and punish those who walk, bicycle, carpool, telecommute, take the bus or ride the rails. Virginia can never solve traffic congestion if it makes the cost of building more roads cost-free to the drivers!

    Here’s what worries me. The GOP compromise does contain other very useful pieces of legislation for reforming VDOT and land use. These bills represent a good start on the long march toward meaningful reform of our broken transportation system. It would be a darn shame if the Senate kills these too. We shall see…


  • New Questions about the Cloverleaf Deal

    A week ago I praised plans to redevelop Cloverleaf Mall, a failing mall in a declining district of Chesterfield County. As an alternative to subsidizing growth and development on the metropolitan periphery, I argued, state and local governments need to be more aggressive about in-fill development and redevelopment in areas already served by road networks and other infrastructure. A proposal to convert the old mall into a mixed-use project with more than 500 homes seemed like exactly the kind of development the Richmond region needs.

    Now comes Style Magazine with some tough questions: “How many millions in financial incentives is the county willing to kick in? If pushed to the wall, is Chesterfield willing to use eminent domain to gain control of the remaining land?”

    It turns out that the Richmond Christian Center, an African-American church, is willing to pay $7 million to acquire 15 acres of the proposed 83-acre site. Crosland Inc., the developer favored by the County, has agreed to pay $9.25 million for the mall buildings, but that price tag does not include the land the mall actually sits on. And that’s just where the story starts to get complicated. Read the Style article.

    While infill and redevelopment are critical strategies for creating viable New Urban Regions, they must follow the same guidelines as all other development: It needs to pay its own way. Considering that the land is often undervalued and much of the infrastructure is already in place, that shouldn’t be a high hurdle. Let’s hope that the bean counters in Chesterfield County are keeping a sharp eye on this deal.


  • Virginia Tech Research up 11 Percent

    Virginia Tech has reported research expenditures of $321.7 million to the National Science Foundation for fiscal year 2006, an 11 percent increase over 2005. That’s up from $289.99 million the previous year, which garnered Virginia Tech a 56th ranking among the 630 universities that conduct R&D in the United States.

    We should all cheer to see the headway at Virginia Tech, Virginia’s largest research university. Of course, these rankings are like running on a treadmill — every other university is bidding furiously to increase their R&D expenditures and improve their rankings, too. Despite gains in R&D expenditures, Virginia Tech had actually fallen in the national rankings in recent years. Hopefully, an 11 percent gain will prove sufficient to move it up a couple of notches in the prestige sweepstakes.


  • A New and Improved Slavery Apology

    The General Assembly would express “profound regret” for Virginia’s role in slavery and for “historic wrongs visited upon native peoples” in the latest version of a proposed apology that cleared the House Rules Committee yesterday, reports Pamela Stallsmith with the Times-Dispatch. The revised version of an apology originally authored by Del. A. Donald McEachin, D-Henrico, passed unanimously.

    The new verbiage sounds like an improvement over the original, in which McEachin had called upon the General Assembly “to atone for the involuntary servitude of Africans and call for reconciliation among all Virginians.”

    The substitude, submitted by Del. John M. O’Bannon III, R-Henrico, would express the General Assembly’s “profound regret for the commonwealth’s role in sanctioning the immoral institution of human slavery, in the historic wrongs visited upon native peoples, and in all other forms of discrimination and injustice that have been rooted in racial and cultural bias and misunderstanding.”

    I can live with that. I’m still concerned about other language in McEachin’s bill that attributes the social ills of African-Americans today to past injustices like slavery and Jim Crow while skipping over the impact of the modern welfare estate. I can’t find the revised bill online. Can someone point me to the revised apology?

    Update: Jim Bowden has posted the text of the revised apology, HJR 728, on his website, Deo Vindice. The language does not sugar coat the injustices of slavery or Jim Crow in the least, yet avoids the pitfalls of McEachin’s original.


  • Intellectual Diversity on College Campuses: An Oxymoron?

    I don’t know how practical his idea is, but you’ve got to admire Del. Steve Landes, R-Augusta, for his moxie. Reports Hugh Lessig with the Daily Press:

    [Landes] wanted higher education institutions to report back on policies that would ensure academic freedom in support of intellectual diversity. The reports were optional, and Landes said he wanted to tread carefully because the issue was controversial.

    Committee members voted to table the bill after considering it for nearly an hour, hearing from a list of supporters and critics.

    It’s a litany of political conservatives that U.S. colleges and universities are dominated by liberals and leftists. Political opinion polls of college professors tend to confirm the stereotype. (As a one-time graduate student in history at the Johns Hopkins University, I lived the bias — that’s why I bailed out with a Master’s Degree instead of Ph.D.)

    It wouldn’t surprise me to find that professors in public Virginia colleges lean left as well. But it’s my impression that there is more intellectual diversity in our college campuses than in other public systems. Conservatives and free-marketeers may be a minority, but they’re not an endangered species. Conservative students can find intellectual mentors if they seek them out.

    As for the history profs I was closest to at the University of Virginia, two were avowed Marxists and two were mainstream liberal. But they were superb teachers who instilled a love of learning and taught me how to think logically and rigorously for myself. Not much of their politics rubbed off, but their teaching did.

    Update: This issue is of more than “academic” interest. To quote from today’s Petersburg Progress-Index:

    Last week, Dr. Jean R. Cobbs, a former sociology professor, received a $600,000 settlement from the university. Cobbs, who filed a complaint in U.S. District Court in 2005, claimed she was discriminated against due to her conservative political beliefs. Cobbs has open relations with the Republican Party. In a report from the American Association of University Professors, Cobbs began reporting โ€œrepeated acts of โ€˜professional, political and personal harassmentโ€™โ€ in the early 1990s.


  • Business As Usual in Health Care

    Bills that would begin to dismantle the state’s innovation-stifling process for approving and regulating health-care facilities died in the House Health, Welfare and Institutions Committee yesterday, reports Tammie Smith with the Times-Dispatch. Del. John M. O’Bannon III, R-Henrico, a physician, asked that his deregulation bill be stricken after a key stipulation was removed during a hearing. Smith provides some of the background:

    Lobbyists for hospitals, nursing homes, physician specialties and other groups spoke for and against aspects of O’Bannon’s bill, which would have made several significant changes. For instance, projects would no longer need approval from regional planning agencies. Also, equipment valued at less than $500,000 would be exempt from the regulatory process.

    As it stands, proposals for new medical facilities or costly pieces of equipment must go through a regulatory process, with local planning agencies considering how the service or equipment will affect the health-care market and recommending for or against approval. The state health commissioner ultimately signs off on regulated
    projects.

    Critics have charged that this regulatory process protects existing health care providers by restricting the entry of new players into the marketplace. Some say the future of health care is to evolve from a system of general hospitals, whcih provide a wide range of services, to medical “factories” specializing and excelling in particular disciplines and procedures. The specialists tend to have higher productivity, lower costs and better patient outcomes. But hospitals, which dominate Virginia’s health care industry, claim that such competition would “skim the cream,” and make them less profitable. As a consequence, Virginia has very few focused medical enterprises.

    The health care system is so complex, of course, that no one set of changes will bring health care inflation under control. But a good starting point would be to encourage new business models in a sector where such innovation is conspicuously lacking.

    Does anyone seriously think that an economic sector regulated by state government and policed by the established health care constituencies can build a better mousetrap? As O’Bannon put it: “The question is how tightly are we going to control health care in Virginia? Are we going to control it down to every blood pressure cuff?”


  • FAIRFAX JOB NUMBERS

    Alec McGillis reported on the status of jobs in today’s WaPo.

    Here is a note we sent Alec:

    Nice story on jobs!

    Two additions to the coverage would put these facts in geographic context:

    1. A map with radial distances out to R=50 miles from the Centroid of the Core graphically showing the location of jobs in 1990 and the growth in jobs from 1990 to 2005.

    2. A scaled summary quantification of the total land necessary to support those jobs (Jobs / Housing / Services / Recreation / Amenity Balance) at 10 persons per acre at the Community scale.

    Hint: There is room in Fairfax County for all the development necessary to support all these jobs within the County if they were distributed in Balanced Communities, and there still would be 50 percent open space in the County. All that is necessary is to let the market work down the vast vacant and underutilized land.

    Fairfax has played the hand that was dealt to them by federal and state programs, regulations and laws so it is not all their fault. However, the County has taken advantage of its location to generate employment “tax base” but has failed to evolve the Balanced Communities necessary to curb traffic congestion, energy consumption and other results of dysfunctional settlement patterns.

    A lot of folks will read the coverage on job growth and Subregional job distribution and assume that the jobs are scattering to the fringe of the National Capital Subregion. They well also assume that there is no alternative to scattering urban dwellings by the unit, Dooryard, cluster and neighborhood across the Countryside via orphan subdivisions.

    There is an alternative.

    Keep up the good work…

    EMR


  • Three Questions about Dominion’s NoVa Transmission Line

    You know that Dominion must be getting nervous when it runs full-page ads in the Richmond newspaper about a controversy in Northern Virginia. But the high-voltage transmission line that the electric power company wants to run through the northern Virginia piedmont is running into some serious flack. Here are the arguments (quoted verbatim) that Dominion published today in the Richmond Times-Dispatch:

    Fact 1: The need for additional electricity supplies for Northern Virginia is undeniable. … The number of households in the region is projected to have growth by 27% between 2000 and 2010. As a result, demand for electricity in Northern Virginia has grown by a staggering 40% over the last 10 years. …

    Fact 2: Dominion is working hard to find a route that minimizes the impact of the new line. …

    Fact 3: Energy conservation is important, but it can’t replace the need for a new transmission line. Dominion has examined all viable alternatives. Even the best energy conservation programs in place in the United States would not come close to reducing demand enough to fill the gap. …

    Fact 4: The proposed tranmission line is being built to ensure a reliable source of electric power for Northern Virginia. …

    Fact 5: The new transmission line will improve access to low-cost power. …

    Fact 6: Adding enough new generation capacity in Northern Virginia is not feasible. Dominion is working on places for new generating facilities in the state, but adding enough generation in Northern Virginia to eliminate the need for the new transmission line is not financially or operationally practical.

    Fact 7. Without a new transmission line, the prospect of rolling blackouts by 2001 is very real. …

    Let us concede that the threat is very real and that rolling blackouts in Northern Virginia is a prospect altogether be avoided. Power outages would bring economic expansion in Virginia’s economic dynamo to a screeching halt. An uninterrupted supply is perhaps the single-most critical piece of criteria for Information Technology companies. Any IT company would seriously think twice before expanding in a blackout-prone region.

    However, I would ask several sets of questions.

    Question 1: electricity consumption is increasing considerably faster than the population. Why? Are households using more electricity, perhaps to provide HVAC to bigger houses? Or are businesses consuming more? If the increase is coming from businesses, to what extent can an emerging generation of energy-efficient microchips offset future increases within the next three to five years? The ad doesn’t say.

    Question 2: What energy conservation alternatives has Dominion examined? Has it looked at the possibility of incentivizing businesses and homeowners to conserve energy by creating rate structures that shift demand to off-peak seasons and off-peak periods of the day? Has it examined the option of expanding “net metering,” which allows micro power producers to sell surplus electricity back into the grid? The ad is silent.

    Question 3: In what way is adding new capacity within Northern Virginia “not feasible?” Is there a lack of appropriate sites? Are the fuel costs too high? Does Dominion anticipate an intense Not-In-My-Back-Yard response to any proposal to build a major facility in the region? The ad offers no clue.

    Dominion may have perfectly reasonable answers to these questions — and if I can uncover them, I will post them on this blog. But right now Dominion is asking us to take their word on blind faith. And given the lack of specitivity to their arguments, that’s hard to do.


  • Don’t Blame It on the Junk Food — Blame It on the Sprawl

    Is there a connection between the shape of our cities and the shape of our bodies? That’s the question posited by Ben Harder in Science News Online. Harder describes the debate this way:

    …Researchers have evidence that associates health problems with urban sprawl, a loose term for humanmade landscapes characterized by a low density of buildings, dependence on automobiles, and a separation of residential and commercial areas. [University of British Columbia professor Lawrence] Frank proposes that sprawl discourages physical activity, but some researchers suggest that people who don’t care to exercise choose suburban life. Besides working to settle that disagreement, researchers are looking at facets of urban design that may shortchange health.

    Frank’s research team estimates that a typical white male living in a compact, mixed-use community weighs about 10 pounds less than a similar man in a diffuse subdivision containing nothing but homes.

    University of Toronto economist Matthew Turner also has studied the sprawl-obesity connection, comparing the weights of people before and after moving to “sprawl”-style neighborhoods, but finds nearly zero correlation.

    Speaking from my personal experience, I am convinced that there is a connection. I know for a fact that I walked a lot more when I worked in downtown Richmond and lived in the Fan than I do now living in the Henrico suburbs. Why? Because there were destinations that could be reached on foot. In the Fan, my wife and I walked to restaurants, walked to neighbors’ houses, walked to the wine shop, walked to the corner store to pick up a can of tomato paste needed for dinner. Needless to say, we drive everywhere now — even to neighborhood parties an eight-minute walk away!

    I also know that I packed on about 10 pounds after four years living in the ‘burbs. It’s only when I found that I had high blood pressure that I embarked upon a nutrition and exercise regimen that enabled me to lose that ten pounds and more. The academic studies demonstrating the sprawl-obesity connection may not yet meet the standards of scientific proof, but I don’t need proof. I’ve lived the before and after. I know.

    (Hat tip to Jon Baliles for referring me to John Sarvay’s post at Buttermilk and Molasses, “Getting the Fat out of Urban Design.”)


  • The Chichester Gambit

    Sen. John H. Chichester, R-Northumberland, is floating the idea of imposing a 5 percent tax on gasoline as an alternative to the grab-bag of taxes proposed in the GOP Senate-House compromise plan. If Chichester’s gambit gets traction — and it has some support in the Senate, especially among Hampton Roads Democrats — it could unravel the compromise, report Michael Shear at the Washington Post and Christina Nuckols and Warren Fiske at the Virginian Pilot.

    Chichester’s gas-tax idea does have its virtues. First, it is simple and transparent; taxpayers would see the tax — an extra $1.25 per $25 fill-up — at the pump. Second, because it is transparent, the added expense will induce motorists to drive less. In that regard, the gas tax contrasts favorably to the “dog’s breakfast” (as Bart Hinkle describes it in his column today) called for by the GOP compromise. The GOP taxes are spread over so many sources of income, including General Fund surpluses, they are entirely opaque to the motorist. The end result: They would subsidize driving, not discourage it.

    On the other hand, Chichester’s idea would represent an entirely new tax, raising about $600 million a year. That’s significantly more than the new revenue raised through the GOP compromise, which makes it a deal killer in the House. I have to agree with the House GOP sentiment on this: There is no justification to raise taxes while the state is running chronic budget surpluses.

    Ultimately, the only viable long-term solution is to move to a transportation-funding system based upon a mileage fee to pay for maintenance and congestion tolls to raise funds for highway improvements. Nobody likes paying fees, but the idea can be sold politically because (a) the concept is simple and transparent and (b) people get something (access to roadways) in exchange for what they pay. There would be minimal disintermediation by the state political class.


  • Zoning Laws Discriminate Against Bacon

    Bill Turque tackles the tough stories for The Washington Post, including this one about Herndon’s blatantly discriminatory zoning regulations.

    As you’d discover if you read deeply enough into the story, Bacon (pictured at left), hails originally from the Richmond area.

    Be forewarned, town officials of Herndon. We’re paying close attention to this one.


  • Intel’s New Microchip and Dominion’s New Transmission Line

    Intel has overcome one of the great technical hurdles to designing faster, more energy-efficient computer chips: the tendency of computer chips to leak electric current and generate excess heat. Intel was planning to make its announcement today, according to the New York Times, and IBM, close behind, says it plans to introduce a new energy-efficient chip in early 2008. Writes the NYT:

    Many executives in the industry say that Intel is still recovering from a strategic wrong turn it made when the company pushed its chips to extremely high clock speeds โ€” the ability of a processor to calculate more quickly. That obsession with speed at any cost left the company behind its competitors in shifting to low-power alternatives.

    The ramifications of a new generation of high-powered, low-energy computer chips will be far reaching. Analysts suggested that it could become possible, for example, for cell phones to play video at length with less battery drain.

    There could be implications for Virginia as well. The expanding Northern Virginia economy is running short of electric capacity, and Dominion is predicting that the region will see rolling blackouts as soon as 2011 unless it can build a new high-voltage electric line to import cheap Midwest electricity. Electricity demand has increased 40 percent in the region over the past decade, says Dominion, and “even the most aggressive conservation programs would not alleviate the need for new power stations or transmission lines.”

    About two-thirds of that increase occurred as a result of population growth (13.7 percent between 2000 and 2005 alone, according to the Weldon Cooper Center.) I don’t know for a fact, but I would conjecture that the balance in the surge of electricity consumption came from the proliferation of computers in Northern Virginia’s Information Technology-intensive economy, in particular of energy-hogging “server farms.” As a global center of Internet traffic, Northern Virginia is home to a large number of these facilities which consume as much electricity as small cities. Literally. According to a 2001 C/Net news article:

    U.S. Dataport, a company in San Jose, Calif., that planned a $1.2 billion server farm that would be the world’s largest data center. It called for 10 huge air-conditioned warehouses on 174 acres that would constantly draw 180 megawatts of electricity–about enough to provide energy for all the homes in a city the size of Honolulu.

    And this, from WorldChanging.com (dated November 2006):

    Here’s just one amazing factoid: According to a study last year by Lawrence Berkeley National Lab (download – PDF): “A single high-powered rack of servers consumes enough energy in a single year to power a hybrid car across the United States 337 times.”

    That’s not all. Additional power is needed to remove the huge quantity of heat generated by these newer machines. If the machines aren’t cooled sufficiently, they can shut down, with potentially devastating consequences to affected businesses, agencies, or other organizations. All told, server farms consume many times more energy than office facilities of equivalent size.

    The Gartner Group has projected that energy costs, which represent less than 10 percent of a typical company’s Information Technology budget, could rise to more than 50 percent in the next few years. No wonder Dominion is worried about rolling blackouts in Northern Virginia!

    The implication, however, is that Dominion needs to build the transmission line as much to meet the needs of Northern Virginia’s computers as of its people. Northern Virginia localities love server farms because they generate huge tax revenues. Of course, Northern Virginia localities don’t incur the cost of transmitting electricity to their region. No, the residents of Virginia’s piedmont pay those costs : Their land gets condemned to make way for the transmission towers.

    But Intel’s announcement scrambles the forecasts. Intel now can configure its computer chips to maximize speed or to minimize power. The mix will depend, undoubtedly, on market forces, especially the cost and availability of electricity. If electricity is scarce and/or expensive, businesses will demand more low-power chips. That line of reasoning suggests that the potential for energy conservation in Northern Virginia is far greater than anyone had assumed.

    In light of this news, Dominion needs to revisit its power forecasts for Northern Virginia, and it needs to revisit its assumption that conservation “can’t alleviate the need for new power plants and transmission lines.”


  • Inside the Times-Dispatch Newsroom

    The American Journalism Review has published a balanced overview of the “Culture Clash” in the newsroom of the Richmond Times-Dispatch as a new publisher, Tom Silvestri, and executive editor, Glenn Proctor, endeavor to reinvent the august family newspaper in an era of declining circulation and stagnant revenue.

    Here’s the summary graph:

    Some have bristled at the brusqueness of those moves and a harsh management style. But the angst at the Times-Dispatch–which is not shared by everyone in the newsroom–is less about the new sheriff in town than it is about concerns that have shaken newsrooms nationwide: the evolution of family-run newspapers into corporate entities, the delicate balance between public service journalism and financial pressures in a rapidly evolving and brutally competitive media environment. Together, Silvestri and Proctor, very much on the same page, have sped up a reader-friendly revolution that had been creeping through this rather comfortable paper for a few years. The moves are familiar: a mainly–or often solely–local front page; a focus on presentation; a push for localizing national stories; a growing emphasis on multimedia. Among the staff, there is praise for a livelier paper, greater diversity in hiring and in the news pages, a higher energy level in the newsroom. But for some, that energy is more like anxiety. The Times-Dispatch is divided among those who support stabs at creating a 21st-century business model and those who question whether the changes will alter the very foundation of journalism.

    If the AJR feature whets your appetite for more inside-the-newsroom, gossip, don’t miss this piece in Style Weekly on the farewell address of Mark Holmberg, one of the T-D’s more popular writers. From Holmberg’s final post on the T-D’s internal forum, the “Water Cooler”:

    In the past year weโ€™ve seen all kinds of walls come down: The wall between news and editorial, the wall between news and marketing, news and circulation, news and advertising. News and HR. Not good. Does this mean we have news for sale or rent? Perhaps not yet. But the walls coming down make it more likely. Itโ€™s all happening bit by bit. Death by a thousand cuts. We put up with each little affront, thinking that will be it, wondering if our paychecks are more important than one little slap at the Fourth Estate.

    Update: John Sarvay gives the AJR story extended treatment on his Buttermilk & Molasses blog. I love his description of Glenn Proctor, based on material in the article, as “an executive editor with the empathy of a Sith Lord. A Sith Lord with a gold stud earring…”


  • Software Upgrade

    Bacon’s Rebellion has upgraded its Blogger software.

    The main change that should be visible to readers is the “label” for each story. If there is a particular editorial theme that you want to follow, click on the label link at the bottom of each post. You will be taken to a page where only posts on that topic are listed.

    Please let me know if you encounter any problems.