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Policy Wonk Alert: The Virginia Energy Plan Is Now Online
Well, here it is, the long-awaited Virginia Energy Plan. There’s so much material that it will take a while for me to absorb. I hope to blog several posts over the next few days. Meanwhile, just to whet your appetite, I’m displaying one of the many interesting graphs in the report. Please note how “transportation” has outpaced all other categories as a driver of energy growth in the state.Update: I’ve been plowing through the plan. Wowie, zowie! It is such a rich source of data and ideas that I can assure you that any newspaper summary you read will be totally inadequate. It humbles me to say this, but not even Bacon’s Rebellion is prepared to do the plan justice. My complements to the authors. Although I may disagree with some of their priorities and proposals, they are to be commended for the comprehensive scope of coverage and the immense amount of research they conducted.
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FUNDMENTAL CHANGE
Europe is an “old” place.
As we see in Richard Thornton’s current Column “Berkeley the Butcher” and in Jim Bacon’s “Nathaniel Bacon Vindicated, Gov. Berkeley Shamed” post and comments of 4 September, “old” Europe fundamentally reshaped Africa, Asia, North and South Ameria and shaped the future of Virginia.
Now it is reshaping itself. It is not just the European Union and the Fundamental Change in the governace structure below in nation-state level in “western” Europe, that is changing, it is all of Europe.
Thirty-seven percent (3 of the 8) of the national teams in the Quarter Final of EuroBasket 2007 represent places that were not on any map of nation-states in 1980.
If we are going to talk about “change” it needs to be Fundamental Change.
EMR
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Anybody Seen My Old Friend John?
Yesterday’s Tuesday Morning Group meeting in downtown Richmond featured Paul Goldman, who discussed the legal issues, and much more, surrounding the 2007 transportation bill. Paul did a fine job and provided a refreshing look inside the sausage factory that produced the final bill. Interesting highlight: It seems the idea that it would be too hard or too expensive to collect abusive driver fees from out of state residents doesn’t mesh with existing practice among the several states to collect traffic fines. In other words, when Bacon gets a speeding ticket in North Carolina, and decides not to pay it, the next time he tries to renew his Virginia license, that out of state fine will be on his record — and he won’t be able to renew his license until that ticket is cleared. Presumably, the same system would flag any out of state driver who earns a Virginia abuser fee, but decides to ignore it.
Also scheduled to speak was RPV chairman John Hager on the topic of “what he hopes to accomplish as chair โ both before and after this Novemberโs election.”
Unfortunately, Hager withdrew from the schedule. After some discussion as to the reason why, it seem that the Speaker’s office was upset that Hager intended to appear before a group that includes members who vehemently disagree with the GOP leadership on the structure, and in some cases the constitutionality, of the transportation bill.
Interestingly, Hager will be appearing, supposedly with the Speaker’s prior approval, before the Sorensen Institutes’s reunion gala in October, where Hager will share the dais with DPVA chairman Dickie Cranwell. It is safe to assume Mr. Cranwell does not exactly believe in the wisdom of the GOP leadership’s policy proposals on transportation, the budget, education, or much else.
John Hager is a good man and an indefatigable supporter of the GOP. He’s taken over a party that is in the midst of a tough election season, made more difficult by the hub-bub over the transportation bill. That he was willing to enter a potential lion’s den at TMG shows that he’s confident in his ability to make a strong case for the party and his vision for it. That the Speaker does not share Hager’s confidence says a lot. And while I can understand the Speaker’s unwillingness to provide even a modicum of support to those who are so vocally opposing his signature initiative, I cannot understand why he is allowed to dictate the party chairman’s schedule.
But I do know that this high-handedness has already paid some rather nasty dividends for the party. And more may be on the way.
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More Sound Thinking about Transportation Financing — in Washington, Alas, Not Richmond
The National Transportation Infrastructure Financing Commission is leading the way in re-thinking federal highway funding strategies. There is a consensus among the commissioners that the status quo is not sustainable, reports Ken Orski, publisher of Innovation Briefs, a transportation policy newsletter. The federal gasoline tax served well to fund construction of Interstate highways, but now that the highway system is complete, the United States needs a financing model responsive to new priorities. Writes Orski:
Specifically, the new financial model must allow the nation to compensate for years of underinvestment and deferred maintenance, modernize existing highway facilities, improve system performance, relieve highway congestion and expand road capacity in high growth areas and critical commerce corridors. …
The Commissioners appear prepared to recommend reducing future reliance on petroleum-based fuel taxes in favor of a more diversified revenue model involving road user fees, tolls, private capital, congestion pricing, public-private partnerships and the use of new revenue collection technology. There is also a sentiment among the Commissioners that fees paid by road users should reflect more closely the costs they impose.
With Congress addicted to pork barrel politics and transportation earmarks, there’s no assurance that NTIFC ideas will ever be implemented at the national level. But the Commission’s logic applies equally well to the financing of state road programs. The user-pays financing principles articulated by the NTIFC would have been vastly preferable to Virginia’s recently enacted hodge-podge of taxes, levies, fees and General Fund surpluses by drivers are subsidized by non-drivers.
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The Anti-Illegal Brush Fire Spreads
I missed this story when it first took place, but it appears that the Culpeper County board of supervisors has extended an invitation to nine Virginia counties, three towns and two cities to join a “coalition” of jurisdictions dedicated to confronting illegal immigration. The municipalities will brainstorm and then submit recommendations for legislation to the General Assembly, reports Dan Telvock in the Fredericksburg Free Lance-Star.
The news update is that Spotsylvania County is the first jurisdiction accepting the invitation to join, which it did along with passing a resolution to recognize English as the county’s official language. (The measure is purely symbolic because English is already the official state language.)
The town of Culpeper has declined to join the coalition, reports the Culpeper Star Exponent, but council did consider a measure that would restrict illegal immigrants from trespssing on the parking lot of a local mall. Meanwhile, the town of Leesburg has deferred action, adopting a wait-and-see attitude, according to the Loudoun Times-Mirror.
In related matters, the Winchester City Council yesterday adopted a policy statement regarding illegal immigrants, asking federal officials to “step up” and address the problem. According to the Winchester Star, the statement includes phrases such as “the ever-growing segment of illegal Hispanic immigrants is at the heart of many of the cityโs biggest problems” and “many illegal aliens engage in criminal activity.”The cost of instructing non-English-speaking students emerged as a major issue. “I think weโre prepared to handle that burden,” said council President Charles T. Gaynor, “but the aspect we find most detestable is that weโre required to educate them to standards, and at the same success rate, as English-speaking students, and if we do not, weโre criticized by the same people.”
In other developments, Corey Stewart, chairman of the Prince William County board of supervisors, testified before a Congressional subcommittee yesterday on illegal immigration. According to the Manassas Journal Messenger, he said he wants wants to be able to arrest people on immigration charges if police determine they’re here illegally during traffic stops which don’t necessarily call for an arrest. “This isn’t about going out and hunting illegal immigrants,” Stewart said.
Stewart also asked Congress to pass laws that would allow local authorities to fine landlords who rent to illegal immigrants and to fine employers who hire illegal immigrants.
The anti-illegal backlash appears to be strongest along the fringe of the Washington New Urban Region. Rightly or wrongly, concern about illegal immigration runs deep in these mostly Republican-leaning communities. When GOP legislators introduced a raft of legislation aimed at illegal immigrants, they were not trying to “distract” the public from the poorly conceived Abuser Fees they sponsored effect this year, as some commenters on this blog have argued, they were responding to a grass roots movement.
The wave of legal and illegal immigration, the changing demographic make-up of Virginia, the strain placed on public services, the political backlash among whites and the increased assertiveness of Hispanic groups is arguably the most significant story of 2007 in Virginia — well, the second most important, after my bread and butter, transportation and land use. The Mainstream Media has been reporting on the anti-illegal backlash on an episodic basis, but all we have gotten so far is fragmented images and sound bites. These issues are too important to be resolved in an atmosphere of ignorance and emotion.
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Go Gators!
Alligators have been spotted in the waters of Virginia Beach. Is this a sign of global warming – or are pet gators slipping the proverbial leash?I like to think that wild gators are making a comeback in the Old Dominion. Think of how much livelier the local news will be when dogs and small children start mysteriously disappearing!
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Six Years Later…
Today is a day to remember the fallen and to thank those who have sailed half way around the world to defend us. Whatever we may think of the war in Iraq, we can express gratitude for the dedication of our soldiers and sailors who are sent there. In this photo, the Norfolk-based amphibious assault ship USS Kearsarge, now stationed in the Arabian Sea, pays tribute to those who perished on 9/11 and to those who have fought in defense of freedom since then.(Photo credit: Lt. J.R. Hoeft, Kearsarge Strike Group.)
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Don’t Touch the Rainy Day Fund
Is Virginia’s FY 2008 budget picture bleak enough to justify dipping into the state’s $1.3 billion rainy day fund? Apparently, Gov. Timothy M. Kaine wants to keep that option on the table. Last month the Governor announced that Virginia was facing a cash shortfall of $641 million and ordered state agencies to cut their administrative budgets by five percent. The General Assembly leadership of both houses is urging Kaine not to touch the Rainy Day Fund, which was set up to weather major emergencies like the recession of 2002.
In the letter to the Governor, four senior Republican legislators wrote:
Key economic indicators such as employment and wage and salary growth, while softening, appear to be in line with long-term-trend growth of a maturing economy. Unlike the recession of earlier this decade, when the state actually collected less revenue, the updated revenue forecast presented by [Finance] Secretary [Jody] Wagner indicates Virginia revenues are still experiencing growth.
“We remain concerned that utilizing the state’s Rainy Day Fund during a non-recessionary period establishes a bad and undesirable precedent that suggests we can overspend taxpayer resources without consequence,” the legislators wrote. They offered few specifics on where Kaine should implement his spending cuts, but did urge him not to reduce state support for higher education while expanding the pre-K program, which would be “tantamount to raising tuitions on middle-class Virginians in order to launch a new initiative.”
Kaine spokesman Kevin Hall called the letter a political stunt, reports Pamela Stallsmith with the Times-Dispatch. “While they play political games in an election year, the governor and his team are busy making difficult choices about painful cuts in services Virginians rely on.”
Perhaps Hall didn’t like the legislators’ insinuation that the budget crunch was partly of the Kaine administration’s own making. Half the shortfall, they wrote, could be attributed to underestimating payments for the Land Preservation Tax Credit and miscalculating interest payments to the General Fund. On the other hand, Kaine deserves credit for seeking spending cuts early in the fiscal year, when cost-cutting decisions can be spread over 10 months.
Politics aside, the legislators are right: There is no justification for tapping the Rainy Day Fund during a period of economic expansion.
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Hey, WaPo, Try Addressing the Issues
The Washington Post editorial page was in fine form Sunday, beaming with moral superiority as it criticized House Speaker William J. Howell for his stance on illegal immigrants. Illegal immigration is a complex issue that cuts many ways and the WaPo is more than entitled to point out flaws in Howell’s proposals. But there is no justification for accusing the Speaker and Republicans generally of “immigrant bashing,” “bigotry mongering,” and “sticking it to the culturally distinct ‘other.’”I don’t know the Speaker on a personal level that well, but I know others who know him, and of one thing I am certain, Bill Howell is not a bigot and he does not pander to bigots. Let’s turn the tables and show the Washington Post what it’s like to conduct an argument by ad hominem attack.
WaPo editorial writers are so desperate for liberals and democrats to cling to power, they’ll say anything, do anything, including undermine the sovereign boundaries of the nation. Seizing the illegal immigration issue, WaPo scribblers hurl accusations of racism and bigotry against those who would uphold the rule of law, cynically goading Hispanics into the liberal/democratic camp — just as they shamefully play the race card to keep African-Americans on the liberal plantation. It’s all race-and-oppression with those hypocrites, who live in their expensive, all-white neighborhoods and work in their lily-white office complexes amidst the poverty of Washington, D.C. It’s easy to love minorities and champion their causes — as long as the riff raff doesn’t get too close.
See how easy it is? Just impugn the other guy with the worst motives in the world. Change the subject and ignore his arguments. If that’s the way the WaPo wants to conduct the illegal immigration debate, let’s get going. Digital ink in the blogosphere is a lot cheaper than printer’s ink. But there is an alternative: Let’s all back off, take a deep breath, give our opponents the benefit of assuming they aren’t evil incarnate, and address the issues civilly.
(Rapid dog image: The official Bacon’s Rebellion icon for the Washington Post editorial page.)
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I-495 HOT Lane Construction Begins in Early 2008
Construction of HOT lanes on Interstate 495, the Washington Beltway, will begin early next year and last five years, reports Karen Brulliard with the Washington Post. The $1.7 billion project will stretch 14 miles and include nine dedicated interchanges with the Beltway, including three new access points to Tysons Corner.
The congestion tolls, which will vary by time of day, will be geared to keeping traffic flowing at optimal speeds and maximize capacity. The average trip during rush hour is expected to cost $5 to $6. Given the premium that many Northern Virginians put on their time, that’s a bargain. The four new lanes will continue to be free for buses and cars with three or more riders.
With HOT lanes planned for Interstate 95 as well, the beginnings of a free-flowing network are coming into place. Said Pierce R. Homer, secretary of transportation: “The Capital Beltway is the busiest and most congested highway in Virginia, and we believe we have come up with an affordable solution that brings transit and HOV services to that corridor for the first time. This means that a resident, say, from Aquia Harbour in Stafford who works in Tysons Corner can pick up two neighbors and drive on a congestion-free facility all the way, or that same person can ride a bus to that location. . . . It’s a brand-new travel option.”
But Stewart Schwartz, executive director of the Coalition for Smarter Growth, contended that the state should not have relinquished operation of the HOT lanes to a private firm. Said Schwartz: “I would argue that there really is no real private cash on the table that comes from these deals. All these contractors are doing is serving as a sort of bond agent for the state.”
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Frosty Landon, Champion of Open Government, Retires
Forrest “Frosty” Landon has retired… again. He first stepped down as executive editor of the Roanoke Times (where, among his other misdeeds, he helped shape me into a journalist), only to join in launching the Virginia Coalition for Open Government in 1996. There, in the words of the Sunday Roanoke Times, he “led a crusade against government secrecy on behalf of all Virginians for a decade.”Transparency in government once was the concern mainly of journalists and first amendment lawyers. But the rise of the blogosphere, which engages hundreds of citizen-reporters, has created a new constituency for openness. Unknown to many bloggers, Frosty and the Coalition labored tirelessly behind the scenes to halt the erosion of the Freedom of Information Act, making it one of those indispensable organizations, like the Virginia Public Access Project, that keep government honest and accountable in Virginia. (Please note who supports the Coalition — the mainstream media. We bloggers depend upon the MSM for more than news reporting.)
Those who know Frosty will always appreciate his good cheer, his self-deprecating humor, his dedication to his craft and his zeal for transparency. Those who don’t know him would miss him, too, if they knew all that he has contributed. Frosty, thank you for a job well done. We will miss you, and hope you don’t stray too far when you enjoy a well-deserved retirement.
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WEEKEND READING AND WRITING
A lot of unsettling “news” as we approach 11 September but there is a WaPo item some may miss in the Travel section. “Operation Vacation” is a stinging condemnation of the US of A health care system masquerading as a way to mix surgery with sightseeing.
Also here on Baconโs Rebellion Blog the 4 Sept post “Nathaniel Bacon Vindicated, Gov. Berkeley Shamed” is not just a teaser for Richard Thorntonโs column, it has accumulated further insights from Thornton and Jim Bacon.
It looks like there is material here for a sequel here to Jared Diamondโs “Guns Germs and Steel” featuring the slave trade impact on Africa, and the slave trade / demise of agricultural / trading settlements in the Southeastern USA.
Add some details from what the English, French and Spanish did on small Caribbean Islands and the impact of Spanish horses on the Native Americans from around our home town and you have another layer of guns and germs and steel insights that rewrites what we thought we knew about European “settlement” and the “diffusion of knowledge” / civilization.
EMR
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Saxman the Axman: Chop Spending
The liberal Commonwealth Institute for Fiscal Analysis projects a $1.2 billion shortfall in the state budget in the upcoming 2008-2010 state budget. The problem, according to authors Michael Cassidy and Cory Kaufman in a Times-Dispatch column today, is not excessive spending but insufficient revenue. Despite Gov. Mark R. Warner’s 2004 tax increases, they write, “Virginia never fully replaced the resources consumed by the car-tax relief effort” of the Gilmore administration.
That’s one point of view. Then there’s the perspective laid out by Del. Chris Saxman, R-Staunton, in a counterpoint column: “Revenues to the commonwealth have increased by more than 50 percent in just three budget cycles — one of which included a recession where revenues were flat-lining to declining.”
Perhaps Virginians should be seeking ways to curtail spending, Saxman says — not by cutting programs but “challenging ourselves to find ways to improve efficiency, thus better serving Virginia’s citizens in a more cost-effective manner.”
Saxman suggests fully implementing the recommendations of the Wilder Commission from earlier in the decade, implementing findings of the Cost Cutting Caucus and the Kaine administration’s operational review teams, making the state budget more transparent to the public, and focusing on the drivers of state spending: Medicaid and K-12 education.
Concludes Saxman: “Virginia’s place in the world’s dynamic economy must not be set by two-year mindsets with statist, linear and short-term thinking.”
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Repaired Bridges: 810 since 2004, and Counting
In the aftermath of the disastrous Minnesota bridge collapse, David Ekern, the commissioner of the Virginia Department of Transportation, weighs in on plans to upgrade the condition of state bridges. Virginia, which has always put roadway maintenance ahead of funding new projects, seems to have its priorities in the right place. In today’s Times-Dispatch Ekern writes:
Virginia’s 2004-09 Six-Year Transportation Improvement Program allocated more than $350 million in fiscal year 2004 to projects involving bridges. More than $600 million was allocated to bridge-related projects for fiscal years 2005-09 in that program. This trend has continued and has allowed us to build or rehabilitate 810 structures. …
In the current 2008-13 Six-Year Improvement Program, more than $2.1 billion is scheduled for projects that include bridge work.
Of course, Ekern warns, the state’s 20,823 bridges get older and the cost to repair and replace them “increase every day.”
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Beware the Nerdocalypse
In the course of human evolution, first came hunting-gathering, then the agricultural revolution and then the industrial revolution. Arguably, the United States has evolved into a post-industrial society, though no one seems quite sure what to call it — perhaps the knowledge economy. But what comes after that?The Singularity, according to entrepreneur-author Ray Kurzweil and a band of like-minded futurists. And what, pray tell, is the Singularity? Read this Associated Press article for a glimpse of what it’s all about. (I noticed this article because I just happen be reading Kurzweil’s book, “The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology.”)The Singularity is, like the analogous point in the gravitational well of black holes, a point of no return: a point when society changes dramatically and irreversibly. The changes are driven by the massive increases in computing power that will pack the power of today’s supercomputers onto a single chip, along with progress in reverse-engineering the human brain, the development of Artificial Intelligence, and incredible progress in the fields of genetics, nanotechnology and robotics.Kurzweil talks of an age of accelerating rates of return, turning traditional economics topsy turvy, as greater computational ability enables mankind to make new technological breakthroughs at an ever accelerating rate. In the singularity, which Kurzweil foresees taking place in the late 2020s, or about 20 years from now, we can expect to see the following: robots that surpass human beings in intelligence, incredibly lengthened human life spans, and robotic/nanotechnology-driven manufacturing processes that dramatically drive down the cost of producing material goods, inexhaustible supplies of cheap, clean energy.Kurzweil is an optimist. He is aware that there is a dark side to every beneficial advance in technology, but he is confident we can control nightmare scenarios of robots taking over the world or swarms of self-replicating nanobots consuming the face of the earth like Pharoah’s locusts. Kurzweil may well be correct that we will be seeing smart robots and 150-year life spans in my lifetime (I’m 54). But, as another futurist, Alvin Toffler observes, different human institutions evolve at different rates. The realm of science is evolving faster than any other, the world of business is close behind. But the spheres of governance, politics and law lag way behind. Indeed, at times our capacity for collective action seems almost paralyzed by gridlock. Instead of creating a world of infinite blessings, skeptics suggest, the Singularity may bring the “nerd-ocalypse.”What will the world be like when technology gives us super-intelligent robots, genetically altered designer babies and Methuselah lifespans but the human species remains stuck in its primate-driven lust for status and power? Talk about a social security crisis! Talk about the implications of wealth, class and differential access to resources!If Bacon’s Rebellion lasts that long, you can rest assured that we will be examining the consequences of the Singularity for Virginia.(Photo credit of Ray Kurzweil: AFB Access World.)




