Bacon's Rebellion

Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result – for example, building more roadways and expecting traffic congestion to go away – is often cited as a threshold test for insanity.

There is a second test that is useful to apply in the Blogosphere. This test is:

Attempting to describe, discuss or arrive at a well-considered public judgement on complex topics in cases where:

1. Key words / phrases are known to have different meanings to different people, or

2. A person or group of persons uses the same word / phrase to describe different places, actions or conditions

According to Lewis Carroll, Humpty Dumpty, when challenged on the confusing use of Vocabulary stated: “That word means exactly what I want it to mean, nothing more, nothing less.” In fact, Alice’s Wonderland is the only place such use of Vocabulary is appropriate.

Failure of the Vocabulary test of mental capacity is especially prevalent in discussion of human settlement patterns. Why is this failure to understand the need for a functional Vocabulary so prevalent in the realm of human settlement patterns?

First, and most obvious, the offending participants do not want to “understand.” Often this is because they fear an understanding will require abandonment of ideas and theories with which they have organized their lives.

The unfounded actions were often thought to have been taken in pursuit of the actors best interest. No one likes to find out that they have been acting in ways which turns out to harm their long-term self-interest and those of their Household.

Adherents of The Big Yard Myth and The Private Vehicle Mobility Myth are often in this category. Believers defend their pet Myths with religious tenacity.

Second, most of the commentators deem themselves to be experts “because they live there.” They apply their observations and experience in the context of the Myths they so want to believe.

Third, there are those who do not want to understand because they profit (or hope to profit) directly or indirectly from continuing confusion, debate and failure to reach a consensus on the most intelligent course of action for the majority.

This class of Humpty Dumpty adherents often know their statements are at best uninformed opinion and at worst deceptive.

Finally there are those who are offended that someone – anyone – would suggest they need to change their Vocabulary in the consideration of topics that they believe they understand as well as anyone.

Doctrinaire defense of “simple” language with respect to human settlement pattern discussion is a sure-fire way to identify Humpty Dumpties.

A great Holiday pastime is to see how many Humpty Dumpties you can identify at the gatherings you attend.

Happy Holidays.

EMR

The escalating war of words between GOP legislators and Gov. Timothy M. Kaine over Kaine’s proposed budget is getting some attention in the press. Garren Shipley at the Northern Virginia Daily and the editorial writers at Washington Examiner focus on the $180 million in transportation spending that Kaine wants to defer. The issues don’t appear to have evolved much since we covered them in this blog, but the differences are getting aired.

Meanwhile, Chelyen Davis at the Free Lance-Star gives ink to the unease that GOP legislators have with Kaine’s two-year revenue forecasts.

In a letter to the govenror, House Speaker William J. Howell, R-Stafford, and House Appropriations Chairman Del. Lacey Putney expressed concern that the Governor’s revenue forecasts are not based on the most current expectations of economic performance. Since the November 19 meeting of the Governor’s Advisory Council on Revenue Estimates (GACRE), “the national economy has continued to see wild swings,” while “the sustained decline in the housing and subprime mortgage markets further affect consumer and financial confidence.” The lawmakers continue:

Subsequently, the Commonwealth’s economic and forecasting consultant Global Insight has updated their forecast based on more recent economic data, including assumed GDP growth of less than 1 percent over the next three quarters. In turn, these financial experts have raised the probability of a recession from 30 percent to 40 percent.

Howell and Putney called upon the Governor to reconvene a meeting of the Advisory Council in January to update the budget projections on the basis of the most current data.

According to Davis, Kaine spokesperson Delacey Skinner responded that GACRE met in November, and agreed then to stick with the revenue forecast from August, which reflected the weakening economy. The governor’s office has a regularly scheduled review of the forecast in mid-February, and that it wouldn’t be prudent to call another meeting of GACRE just a month beforehand. Said Skinner: “Calling a special meeting would send a message to the public that we’re panicked, and that would be an unwise message to send.”

Bacon’s bottom line: So, Skinner doesn’t want to send a message that, “We’re panicked.” Personally, I think it would send a message that, “We’re prudent.” Instead, Skinner prefers to send a message that the Kaine administration is content for budgetary deliberations to rely upon what will be, by January, five-month-old data. Given the volatility of the economy, I think the Howell/Putney proposal makes sense.

We wonder why this Blog was overrun with folks praising the citizens of Oregon for passing Measure 37 in 2004, but

Not a peep when Measure 49 rolled back most of the provisions in 2007?

Turns out Measure 37 was in fact paid for by speculative owners outside the logical location of the Clear Edge.

And they were the majority of those who filed claims under Measure 37.

It was never about elderly ladies who lost their retirement savings.

As I recall that was our point at the time.

EMR

Mayor L. Douglas Wilder may have little nice to say about the Richmond School Board or educational bureaucracy, but he is fulsome in his praise of individual educators. In his recent newsletter he lauds Dr. Irene L. Williams, principal of the Fairfield Court Elementary School, located in one of Richmond’s most notorious, poverty- and crime-ridden neighborhoods.

You can’t accuse Donald P. Morgan and Michael R. Strain of being on the payroll of the payday lending industry. They are staff economists of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. That’s why we need to pay attention when they conclude in a November report, “Payday Holiday: How Households Fare after Payday Credit Bans,” that payday lending is less burdensome on the poor than cutting off their credit.

Do Gooders have trashed the payday lending industry for usurious terms and conditions that allegedly mire poor and working-class citizens in a “debt trap.” Buying that logic, the state of Georgia permanently closed all payday lending in 2004, and North Carolina followed in 2005. (Virginia is still debating the issue.)

Morgan and Strain ask the question: Are poor/working class people better off as a result? The answer: No. In both states, the economists documented that the number of bounced checks, complaints against debt collectors and personal bankruptcies increased in Georgia and North Carolina relative to other states.

The main beneficiaries of the ban, it turns out, are conventional banks. Write Morgan and Strain: “On average, the Federal Reserve check processing center in Atlanta returned 1.2 million more checks per year after the ban. At $30 per item, depositors paid an extra $36 million per year in bounced check fees after the ban.”

Bacon’s bottom line: Poor people don’t need Do Gooders meddling in their affairs to pursue their own economic self interest. Let the payday lenders stay in business. The only legitimate role of government is to ensure transparency — to make sure borrowers understand the terms and conditions of the loans — and to prevent fraud. Otherwise, government meddling doesn’t help the poor, it hurts them.

(Hat tip: Chris Saxman. Photo credit of Advance America: Andrew Bain.)