• Brain Gain: Building Human Capital

    In the ongoing saga of the “Economy 4.0” series, I have arrived at the topic of building human capital — an issue that barely registers on the public-policy radar screen here in Virginia. Oh, sure, there’s lots of debate about education and training, which are components of the larger task of upgrading the level of skills and education in Virginia’s population, but discussions are narrow and institution focused. And there is next-to-no discussion about recruitment and retention — recruiting economically productive people to Virginia, and then ensuring that they want to stay here.

    What Virginia and its regions need, I argue, are comprehensive plans for (1) developing human capital (educating and training the people already here), (2) recruiting human capital, and (3) retaining human capital. No one leg of this trifecta can do the job alone.

    As an example of what can happen when only the first aspect is addressed, I cite the example of Massachusetts. Public education in the Bay State is consistently ranked as the best, or among the best, systems in the country. And no state can compare to the concentration of higher education — from Harvard and MIT on down. Massachusetts does, in fact, have among the best educated populations in the country. But between 2000 and 2004, an net average of 42,000 native-born migrants left the state. Folks, that’s called a brain drain.

    Currently, Virginia is a net beneficiary of migration patterns. We’re experiencing a modest Brain Gain. That’s an economic positive because the newcomers are more highly educated and make more money than the natives. Insofar as the newcomers are members of the creative class, they contribute disproportionately to artistic, scientific and entrepreneurial innovation as well.

    The United States is reaching a new era of chronic labor shortages as Baby Boomers retire and the ranks of younger generations are too frew in number to replace all of them. The battle for economically productive talent will intensify. Inevitably, states and regions will begin competing for top talent, just as they now compete for capital investment. Those regions that start thinking about how to win the migration wars will enjoy a significant competitive advantage over their rivals. Although some Virginia regions have been talking about the “creative class,” the discussion hasn’t gotten very profound or led to anything concrete. We need to get started.

    As awareness increases that human capital is the critical driver of economic prosperity, political, business and civic leaders will start paying more attention to creating more livable and sustainable communities as a way to attract and keep economically productive employees. Thus, economic development will morph into community development. As this set of issues comes to the fore, Virginia regions will be compelled to address the dysfunctional human settlement patterns that detract so much from sustainability and quality of life.

    I develop this line of argument in more detail in “Brain Gain,” supplemented with some cool internal-migration statistics. For your wonkish pleasure, I have made that data accessible for both the United States and Virginia. I think I’ve drawn some interesting and counter-intuitive conclusions. Perhaps readers can mine this data for more refined insights.

    Gray Matter Migration. A chart ranking the 50 states by net in-migration.

    Virginia Migration Winners and Losers. A spreadsheet ranking Virginia localities by net in-migration.

    (Cut-line: Homer Simpson lives in Springfield. Could he be a Virginian? Image credit: Asymptopia.)


  • Another Year, Another Rebellion

    The New Year has blown in a breath of fresh air: The January 14, 2008, edition of the Bacon’s Rebellion e-zine. If you don’t visit this blog regularly, subscriber for a free subscription to make sure you never miss an issue. Click here.

    Here is our line-up of commentary:

    Building Human Capital
    Human capital is the driving force of prosperity in a globally competitive economy. Soon, regions will vie for it like they compete for investment capital. Will Virginia be prepared?
    by James A. Bacon

    Gray Matter Migration. A Web chart ranking the 50 states by net in-migration.

    Virginia Migration Winners and Losers. A spreadsheet ranking Virginia localities by net in-migration.

    Hypercompetition
    Here’s the sub-text of Tim Kaine’s state of the commonwealth speech: Invest in Virginia’s economic future. We can afford it. Our economy is still out-performing the nation’s.
    by Doug Koelemay

    The Road Ahead
    As the MainStream Media fails to provide information citizens need to function as voters and consumers, a citizen-driven media will emerge to fill the void. It’s not yet clear what that new media will look like.
    by EM Risse

    Unleash the Private Sector
    Many localities are too financially strapped to execute Tim Kaine’s pre-K initiative for at-risk tots. He could bypass that bottleneck by engaging private daycare providers.
    by Chris Braunlich

    Rooting for Hillary
    Hillary Clinton has friends in strange places. Among the millions of Americans who reveled in her New Hampshire primary comeback, there were quite a few in Virginia’s Republican Party.
    by Norm Leahy

    Hot Air or Cold Logic?
    The Governor’s Commission on Climate Change could guide Virginia’s energy and environmental policy for years to come. One option it needs to consider: geo-engineering.
    by David Schnare

    Nice & Curious Questions
    Birdies, Bogies and the Back Nine: Golfing in the Old Dominion
    by Edwin S. Clay III and Patricia Bangs


  • Mo’ Money for Schools — to Honor the Civil Rights Movement

    So, this is what the Civil Rights movement has come to 50 years after Brown v. Board of Education: There’s nothing wrong with Virginia’s failing public school systems that showering them with more money won’t solve. In a nutshell that’s the message conveyed by Oliver Hill, Jr., and Andrew Block in an op-ed piece in today’s Times-Dispatch.

    Hill and Block construct a rickety argument that leans upon nearly every prop of liberal thinking about schools in common currency today. They start their column by hijacking the moral authority of the 1960s civil rights movement. “Our political leaders,” they write, “should continue to honor Virginia’s civil rights legacy by funding an educational system that meets the needs of all of our students, including those same children of color for whom so many fought so hard.”

    The Standards of Quality, which redistributes billions of dollars in state aid from affluent school districts to poor ones, is not enough to “ensure equality of educational opportunity,” they continue. Neither is the $354 million in “at risk” funding that supports special programs for poor children. Low-income students, they assert, need “additional resources to be successful.”

    Nowhere in their column do Hill and Block allude to the fact that many minority-dominated school districts spend significantly more per pupil than neighboring suburban school districts. Nowhere do they mention the scandalous bureaucracy and waste in many of those school districts — a bureaucracy that Mayor L. Douglas Wilder, incidentally, has targeted in his ongoing battle with the Richmond School Board.

    The thrust of the Hill-Block column is to absolve minorities from making any financial sacrifice themselves, restructuring educational bureaucracies or altering their own cultural values or attitudes towards education. More money is the solution, and the onus falls squarely upon the taxpayers of Virginia to dig deeper into their pockets — or dishonor the civil rights movement.

    This is the same old, minorities-as-victims ideology that has fostered passivity among poor African-Americans and kept them them dependent upon the largesse of whites. While Hill and Block purport to honor the heroes of the Civil Rights movement of 50 years ago, their antiquated thinking keeps poor African-Americans mired in the role of supplicants. Virginia would do far better to emulate the example of those hundreds of thousands of African-Americans who have escaped poverty and joined the economic mainstream of society. What was their secret? How can their success be replicated?


  • Oh… My… God…

    That’s my reaction to the news that Pat Robertson, chairman of the Christian Broadcasting Network, is a potential bidder for the Virginian-Pilot newspaper, which the Batten family has put up for sale. According to an Associated Press story:

    โ€œAlthough the price for The Weather Channel is a little rich for my blood, I am considering a potential bid for The Pilot and have asked my attorneys to look into it,โ€ Robertson said in an e-mail statement provided Friday by his assistant, G.G. Conklin.


  • Kalahari, Central Park and Fredericksburg Tax Revenues

    Outside of the Rail-to-Tysons heavy rail debate, the most fascinating development battle taking place in Virginia at the moment is in the Fredericksburg region. The City of Fredericksburg, which is experiencing major fiscal stress at the moment, is pushing development of the Celebrate Virginia project just off Interstate 95 as a way to expand the tax base.

    The developer, the Silver Companies, is touting the project as a net plus to the region because attractions like the National Slavery Museum and the Kalahari waterpark would bring in thousands upon thousands of visitors, who will fill city coffers with sales and lodging taxes. Critics contend that the project will incur millions of dollars in tax breaks, public subsidies and other costs — many of them hidden — and could never stand on its own.

    Today in the Free Lance-Star, reporter Emily Battle underlines City Council’s motivation for backing the project. Revenue from the sales tax, the city’s second largest source of taxes, is down. In November sales tax revenue fell short of $900,000 — the first time November revenues had dipped below $1 million since 2003 before Central Park, a massive retail project at the intersection of I-95 and Rt. 3, opened. That project, ironically, also was developed by the Silver Companies amidst considerable controversy and billed as the city’s financial savior.

    Noting that the City has spent $30.2 million so far this year but has brought in only $25.5 million so far, the Fredericksburg City Manager is implementing a hiring freeze. Under the circumstances, some councilmen argue that the City needs the Kalahari waterpark all the more.

    Before betting the farm on Kalahari, however, City Council might be well advised to revisit the deal they cut with the Silver Companies to develop Central Park. Back when the deal was being inked, what sales tax revenues did the City expect Central Park to yield in fiscal 2008? How do those forecasts compare to reality? If Central Park tax revenues are falling short of expectations, what assurance is there that Celebrate Virginia projections can be relied upon?

    Just asking.


  • SOQs Out of Control

    As the General Assembly works on its budget, the “rebenchmarking” of the educational Standards of Quality looms large. This Constitutionally mandated process recalculates how much Virginia school districts receive in some $6.2 billion in Direct Aid to Public Education dollars distributed by the state.

    As I’ve often observed before, this rebenchmarking process represents one of the greatest inter-regional transfers of wealth in the state. By a complicated process, it punishes municipalities that choose to spend more local tax dollars on tax education. Each time the SOLs are rebenchmarked, the more dramatic the redistribution gets. Accordingly, it is instructive to see what happened when the SOLs were last rebenchmarked, in 2006. Many Virginia cities and counties enjoyed such a windfall of state revenue that they could cut their contributions of local tax dollars.

    Chris Braunlich, a Fairfax resident and regular contributor to Bacon’s Rebellion, has documented this perverse effect. You can view the full document here. Here are some highlights:

    In 2006, the City of Lexington received $1,139 in additional state funds per pupil — and cut their own contribution by $446 per pupil.

    The City of Covington received $796 per pupil more from the state, and cut its local contribution by $644.

    My home county, Henrico, an affluent suburban jurisdiction, received $423 more per pupil and cut its local contribution by $53.

    Chesterfield County, the fourth most populous jurisdiction in Virginia, received $415 more per pupil and cut its own contribution by $239.

    If Northern Virginia taxpayers want to know how they’re getting shafted in Richmond, this is where they ought to be looking. As a Henrico resident, I’m a beneficiary of the funding formula. But that doesn’t make it right. This formula is broken. Lil Tuttle with the Clare Booth Luce Policy Institute has suggested a formula that makes far more sense. If lawmakers sincerely want to fix public education — as opposed to perpetuate the current boondoggle — they could start here.

    (Hat tip: The blogger known as Too Many Taxes.)


  • Empowering NIMBYs, Accelerating Sprawl

    Here’s an idea I never would have expected to see coming from a Republican lawmaker: Lt. Governor Bill Bolling is backing legislation that would make it easier for citizens to appeal land use decisions they don’t like. In a recent e-mail, he writes:

    Under current Virginia law, citizens can appeal an adverse land use decision by a local governing body to the Board of Zoning Appeals, and ultimately to the Circuit Court. However, if the citizen prevails in such appeals there is no mechanism for them to recover the costs they incur as a result of the appeal. Because these appeals can be very expensive, the lack of a cost recovery process serves as a deterrent to citizens in appealing adverse zoning decisions, even if those decisions adversely impact their private property rights.

    To correct this, I will support legislation to enable citizens to recover the costs associated with such appeals from the local government if their decision is reversed by either the Board of Zoning Appeals or the court.

    Superficially, it sounds appealing to empower individuals in their David-vs.-Goliath battles with big developers. On the other hand, Goliath isn’t always the bad guy. I’m not persuaded that we need to strengthen the hand of NIMBYs in Virginia.

    If enacted into law, this proposal would make it exceedingly risky for anyone who wants to vary from the approved development template codified in municipal zoning codes and comprehensive plans. Rather than invest time and resources into creating more livable communities that require special zoning variances, developers will be more likely to pursue by-right development. In most municipalities, by-right development will lead to more scatteration, more low densities, and less connectivity between development pods. In effect, this proposal will perpetuate — nay, accelerate — the inefficient human settlement patterns that ruin quality of life and drive up the cost of government.

  • Bragging Rights

    As a rebel by temperament, I tend to be highly critical of the way we Virginians conduct our business. But it’s OK to remind ourselves occasionally that we do a few things right. In his State of the Commonwealth speech yesterday, Gov. Timothy M. Kaine listed a number of accomplishments that Virginia can be proud of.

    As our Department of Health prepares to celebrate its 100th year of service, they have helped Virginia capture one of the highest rankings in the nation for preparedness for public health emergencies.

    Virginia was named the best state for business in the nation this year by Forbes.com, CNBC, and other business publications. We have one of the lowest unemployment rates in the nation, our average wages are among the highest, and with your support for the Governorโ€™s Opportunity Fund, we announced the creation of over 15,500 new jobs in 2007. Just yesterday, we started 2008 off with a great economic development victoryโ€”RTI will invest $100 million and bring 150 high-paying
    titanium processing jobs to the Martinsville/Henry County region.

    Virginia’s per capita state and local tax burden as a percent of income ranks 43rd โ€“ one of the lowest in the nation โ€“ and our per capita income is the 9th highest in America. Our fiscal stewardship has been rewarded with rare Triple A ratings by all three major bonding agencies.

    According to Education Week, children born in Virginia have the best chance of life success of any children in the nation. Ten Virginia high schools made Newsweekโ€™s top 100 high schools list, and three of Virginiaโ€™s public universities are ranked in US News and World Reportโ€™s top 100.

    For more information about that $100 million investment in Martinsville, which will create 150 jobs, click here.


  • Space Hogs

    The Urban Richmond blog provides a great visual on how much space cars take up compared to buses and bicycles. Truly a case where a picture (or, in this case, three pictures) are worth a thousand words.


  • Fredericksburg’s $61 Million Waterpark Subsidy

    When last we visited the Kalahari water park project in Fredericksburg (see “Kalahari and the Politics of Interstate Interchanges“), the all-consuming issue was who would pay to build an interchange at Interstate 95 to serve the water park and the rest of the massive Celebrate Virginia project.

    Now controversy is focusing on the enormous tax breaks the City of Fredericksburg has granted Kalahari developer. Emily Battle at the Free Lance-Star has the details:

    Fredericksburg would give back nearly half of the local taxes paid by Kalahari Resorts as part of a 20-year, $61 million incentives package that helped convince the Wisconsin-based company to build a water park hotel and convention center in the Celebrate Virginia tourism complex.

    The agreement calls for the city to waive $3.35 million in up-front development fees for the project. The bulk of that is a waiver of the roughly $3.2 million in water and sewer availability fees Kalahari would have to pay to connect to the city’s utility system. In addition to fee waivers, the deal calls for the city to return 47.5 percent of the local tax revenues that Kalahari generates to the resort on a quarterly basis for 20 years.

    In return, Kalahari will promote Fredericksburg in its marketing, and it will set up 500 square feet of space in its main lobby to promote other attractions in the city. Finally, Kalahari promises that it won’t build any other facilities in Virginia. Ooooo. Water park promotions will drive a lot of traffic to historic downtown, I’m sure. Plus the exclusive Virginia franchise for Kalahari concept. Who knows what that’s worth. Fredericksburg knows how to drive a hard bargain.

    Celebrate Virginia and its developer, the Silver Companies, keep popping up on my radar screen. Let’s see… First, there is the matter of those $61 million in tax concessions from the City of Fredericksburg. Then they want the state and feds to pay for a new Interstate interchange to provide access to their property. There’s also those $28 million in tax credits that Silver Companies claimed for putting riverfront land under conservation easements — now disputed by the Department of Taxation.

    Questions: Would Celebrate Virginia ever happen in a free-market economy where developers competed on a level playing field? What are the implications of this project for downtown Fredericksburg and all the other interchange-centered development in the Fredericksburg/Stafford/Spotsylvania corridor? While the tax revenues may net out positive for Fredericksburg, what happens to the tax base of neighboring Stafford and Spotsylvania?
    (Image credit: Kalahari Resorts.)

  • The Push for Greater Transparency

    Rick Sincere has an excellent post (compete with video!) of the press conference yesterday at which a proposal to create greater budget transparency was introduced.

    It’s a good step forward — Virginians deserve to know where their money is being spent and, perhaps, legislators and others will feel a greater degree of responsibility for ensuring that those funds are spend wisely.

    Well I can dream, can’t I?

    Politically, the measure has an interesting number of supporters. Sens. Cuccinelli and Petersen were on hand to give their backing for it, and they were joined, either in person or by proxy, LTG Bill Bolling, AG Bob McDonnell and a number of Delegates. Where is the Governor in all this? Discussions have taken place with his policy people, so he’s at least being kept in the loop, if not yet on board.

    I suggest he does. While transparency alone is no guarantee that the worthies will become better stewards of our money, it does create a means through which (some) taxpayers will be able to track spending, question priorities and perhaps even offer constructive feedback. (I can still dream, right?)

    Rick pulled this editorial from the Free Lance-Star, which I think frames the matter extremely well:

    A couple of existent programs nibble around the edges of what the senator and his co-patrons hope to accomplish. Virginia Performs, an administration creation, rates the progress of state agencies in pursuing quality-of-life goals. The state Auditor of Public Accounts’ Commonwealth Data Point, a Web site, paints a broad-brush portrait of how state government operates, including in the budgetary realm. But both programs are deficient in the all-important “fine print” category.

    Mr. Kaine should support this transparency initiative, not because it would make his life easier operationally–the measure, for example, would expose to the cyberized world the practice of some state agencies to shift funds among program accounts–but because in principle it’s the right and progressive thing to do. The money with which the legislative cardinalate and administration nabobs play government is the people’s money. They should be able to see what becomes of it, quickly and easily, every step of the way.

    I think the measure’s backers had an editorial board with the RTD, too. I couldn’t find any mention of it in the online paper today (though Robert Frost manages to get a couple of inches…yeesh).


  • Electric Regulation: Should California Be a Model for Virginia?

    We can argue in endless circles whether Dominion and other Virginia power companies need to build major new power plants, or whether conservation and renewable energy sources can meet Virginia’s energy needs for the foreseeable future. What is not up for argument is that Virginia can do far more than it currently does to encourage conservation.

    All you have to do is look at California. According to today’s Wall Street Journal, California regulators use a carrot-and-stick approach to incentivize power companies to conserve. The regulatory scheme rewards electric utilities cash equal to 12 percent of the costs they avoid if they meet or exceed conservation targets, but punishes them if they fall far short.

    Thus incented, PG&E, which serves northern California, has subsidized the sale of 7.6 million compact fluorescent lightbulbs so far, and expects to raise the total to as many as 20 million — enough to fill 10 percent of the light sockets in northern California homes. The CFLs use only a quarter of the electricity of regular bulbs. And the CFL subsidies are just the most visible program. PG&E has some 85 programs in all, employing 462 people, to help customers cut energy use: from helping Safeway Inc. choose more efficient chicken rotisseries to paying computer manufacturers to supply more efficient power-supply units.

    PG&E has one big advantage over Dominion in encouraging conservation: It’s electric rates are so much higher that consumers get a much higher payback on their investments in energy efficiency. Dominion can hardly be criticized for keeping its electric rates low. Indeed, I say, thank you very much. But low rates are no excuse for Virginia’s failure so far to put into place regulatory incentives and rate structures that encourage conservation where it makes sense. Give us the option, please. Let us make the decision ourselves.

    Update: Dominion has just issued a press release noting that sales of CFL bulbs have reached 558,000 in the first three months of its light bulb initiative. Dominion provides a $1.50 discount on single bulbs and $3 for multi-packs. The company’s goals now are to sell 5 million over three years.


  • How Biased Numbers Could Kill Mass Transit in Richmond

    It’s not often that you see someone seriously arguing for mass transit in the Richmond area, but Ford Weber, director of the Virginia Local Initiatives Support Corporation, makes the case on the Richmond Times-Dispatch op-ed page today.

    The Richmond metropolitan planning organization is conducting a major study evaluating the region’s mass transit needs over the next 25 years. Trouble is, writes Weber, that study is basing its conclusions on Virginia Employment Commission’s projections of future population and employment growth. “The VEC projections … call for unending suburban sprawl over the next 25 years.”

    The VEC numbers do not take into account significant shifts in development patterns, especially the increasing popularity of New Urbanism projects in the region, rising fuel prices or demographic changes. “Nor,” Weber writes, “do the VEC’s projections reflect mass transit’s ability to proactively shape growth by channeling high-density development into targeted transit corridors.”

    Ironically, it appears that the decision to use VEC numbers will create a self-fulfilling prophecy. The fact that scattered, disconnected low-density development makes mass transit uneconomical will bias the study to conclude that the region cannot afford the mass transit option. Such a conclusion will undermine political support for funding mass transit. The lack of a politically viable mass transit option will relieve municipalities from the necessity of planning for nodes of denser development capable of supporting light rail and buses. Thus, sprawl will continue and the VEC will be proved right.

    What a mess. As readers of this blog know, I don’t believe in dumping money blindly into mass transit projects. Indeed, I think that mass transit should be required to pay its own way, just as roads should. In “Midlothian Leviathan,” I’ve shown conceptually how this can be done by redeveloping land around the train stations and capturing some of the increased property value to pay for the up-front capital costs.

    Still, it would be a shame to kill off the mass transit option simply through unintentional biases in the selection of data used in the study. Ruling out a major transportation alternative on the basis of a flawed methodology would be a grievous mistake.


  • Frank Hall’s Brush with Insight

    Del. Franklin P. Hall, R-Richmond, takes to the pages of the Richmond Times-Dispatch today to explain why he wants to create a Richmond regional transportation authority. He comes dangerously close to making some insightful observations — then backs off to embrace the wisdom of Business As Usual.

    Writes Hall:

    All you need do is get in your car and drive; and whether you head north, south, east or west, you will enounter signs of growth. … From 1990 to 2000 our region grew by 17 percent — 122,708 people; and we’re projected to see another 164,000 join our ranks by 2010. If these population trends continue, the region will need to add more than 125,000 new housing units by the year 2030.

    Because of land-use patterns that have historically separated residences, retail, and jobs, our region has the highest driving rate of any major metro area in the state. … Given our current driving patterns and our projected population growth, it doesn’t take a crystal ball to see that while we do not have the traffic gridlock that plagues Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads, it can happen here in Central Virginia — and far sooner than we think.

    At some level, Hall understands the connection between human settlement patterns and transportation demand. But he ignores the implications of his own logic. His bill to establish a regional transportation authority would do nothing to alter human settlement patterns. Indeed, it would enable local boards of supervisors to perpetuate the status quo while fobbing off the transportation consequences to someone else.

    The Richmond region is careening down a dead end road — without any brakes. Frank Hall’s plan would just jam down the accelerator so we reach our collision with reality even faster.


  • Payday Lenders or Goondas — You Decide

    If you thought Virginia’s payday lenders were bad, things could be a lot worse! India, with its growing economy, is experiencing a bank-led consumer lending boom. As in the United States, some borrowers fall behind in their repayments. Even in India, it appears, some people get caught on a treadmill of indebtedness. But in India, banks have a quaint way of collecting their debts: They beat people.

    Today’s Wall Street Journal describes the fate that befell Vinod Kumar, a 21-year-old college student who was sitting in a friend’s car listening to the radio. A stranger suddenly pulled him out of the car, beat him with an iron bar and left him with 12 stitches and a 10-day hospital stay. Writes the Journal: “Mr. Kumar’s attacker was a goonda — a thug — working on behalf of one of India’s largest banks.”

    India’s lawmakers may well put the goondas out of business. Here in Virginia, we may well give them a new lease on life. If we abolish payday lending in Virginia, where will poor people raise emergency cash? From Rocko and Guido (or their ethnic counterparts here in the Old Dominion) who operate outside the rule of law. Don’t be surprised if Virginia emergency rooms see a sudden rise in patients with broken kneecaps.

    (Photo cutline: Poster art from the Hindi movie, “Goonda.” Photo credit: Vendithera Pay Per View.)