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Commonwealth
voters didn’t exactly storm the polling places
on November 8. Their judgments about policy
and leadership in Virginia involved ballots, not
burning cars. But emotions did run high in most
places.
Try
looking the mother of a candidate for delegate in
the eye, for example, refusing the literature she
offers on behalf of her son and saying “No, I
will not vote for him.”
Try
convincing voters that a long-time incumbent and
decorated veteran should be turned out of office
for conduct unbecoming.
Try
answering Tim Russert on some of the hypotheticals
that result from watching too many political ads.
What if transportation improvements just make it
easier for sexual predators to move around? Are
those kids who may get the chance to start
pre-school at age four less likely to hire illegal
immigrants? How does the death penalty deter those
strapping on suicide bombs? Can we ever again look
at our sports bobble-heads with innocent
amusement? Is Matt Santos the last liberal?
Voter
turnout was robust enough that Lt. Gov. Tim Kaine
joined the “Million Vote Club” in his
successful bid to be Virginia’s next governor.
That’s a pretty exclusive group that includes
only six other Virginians.
One,
somewhat ironically, was Kaine’s opponent in
this election, former Attorney General Jerry
Kilgore, who amassed over a million votes in his
successful bid for AG in 2001. That level of
support didn’t carry over for Kilgore in 2005.
It didn’t help Mary Sue Terry either in her run
for governor in 1993 after she won over a million
votes in her AG race in 1989.
It
turns out that only one other candidate for
governor, George Allen in 1993, has won over a
million votes from Virginians. So, Tim Kaine
already has a leg up on incumbent Gov. Mark R.
Warner (and from Gov. Warner). Mark Warner did
garner over a million votes of his own in his loss
to United States Senator John Warner in 1996, of
course. So did Senator John Warner (and then some)
in winning, but those totals came in a
high-turnout presidential election year. Sen.
Warner also gained over a million votes in his
reelection in 2002.
Chuck
Robb was the first Virginian to get over a million
votes in his successful run for the U.S. Senate in
1988 and he did it again in 2000 (another
presidential election year) when he lost to George
Allen. But Sen. Allen remains the only Virginian
to win over a million votes in both gubernatorial
and senatorial elections.
Kaine’s
win also seemed to reaffirm that first rule of
politics -- incumbents win -- by successfully
turning the election into a referendum on the
performance of the Mark Warner-Tim Kaine
administration. Continuity, not turning around,
was the Kaine campaign message that morphed in the
final days into some tortured grammar: “If
it’s broke, fix it, but if it’s fixed, don’t
break it again.” Voters seemed to understand
that even if their English teachers could not
bring themselves to do so.
Incumbency,
whether virtual or real, also powered the races
for the House of Delegates. Despite a significant
amount of hand-wringing by Republicans, only two
incumbent Republican Delegates were defeated
November 8, along with only one Democratic
incumbent. None of the three were the favorites of
their colleagues, nor do they drive wheels of
governance.
Even
more importantly, 51 incumbents of both parties
had no general election opposition at all.
Thirty-one others won with over 60 percent of the
vote. Only 18 delegate races were truly
competitive.
Democrats
won six of the ten open seats, Republicans, four.
One less Republican, one more Democrat and one
more Independent are the net changes for the House
in 2006. How this may change committee ratios
between the parties is probably the most important
consequence for those who were not candidates.
In
the longer term, however, Republican leaders
rightly are worried about the results from
Northern Virginia, where Tim Kaine carried not
only Democratic strongholds in Alexandria and
Arlington, but also Fairfax, Prince William and
Loudoun Counties. Democrats won all four open
House seats in Northern Virginia, beat a
Republican incumbent and came within a couple of
percentage points of beating two others. Being
more responsive to transportation, education and
other needs of the Commonwealth’s most
populated, prosperous region might help Republican
office-holders in the future, but also could
require Republicans in the General Assembly to,
gulp, tax and spend or continue to whittle on
ancient funding formulas.
More
elections are just ahead. There will be a special
election to replace state Sen. William Bolling,
who was elected Lieutenant Governor. Del. Ryan T.
McDougle, R-Mechanicsville, is the favorite to
win. Should McDougle succeed, a special election
to fill his House seat would be in order.
And
then there is the recount of ballots cast for
Attorney General. Days after the polls closed,
former Del. Robert McDonnell had 970,385 votes and
state Senator Creigh Deeds had 969,481. The
virtual tie guarantees a recount before the
results of this closest statewide race in Virginia
history are finalized. The seat of Del. McDonnell
already has been filled, but a special election
would follow if Sen. Deeds is the eventual winner
and if that seat is won by a sitting delegate,
another House election.
In
addition to those hypothetical questions,
political observers might keep in mind a couple of
children’s stories as they mull over this
election and those immediately ahead. The next
time voters hear a Chicken Little cackle, they may
ask whether the sky really is falling or just the
candidate’s poll numbers. And if they hear more
“Who will help me spend the tax money?”
campaign promises, they might remember the Little
Red Hens who drove the compromises that raised the
revenues that makes any spending possible. Simple
lessons seem to message best.
--
November 14, 2005
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