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As
we slide, stumble, waltz (you pick the word)
mercifully out of August, this one, with debate
quarrels, base closings, ipods and Pat Robertson, an
oddity beyond most, let us refocus for a moment on
the governor’s race and the two determinants of
what happens in November. Let us speak of these
determinants as M&M—read that “Math
and Mark.”
If
I were writing this column in mid-October, I think
I’d begin by saying that you could recreate the
heat and passion of the campaigns that are just
behind us simply by touching a lit match to a bowl
of oatmeal. That’s about how explosive
they’ve been.
That’s
about how they’ve fired our imaginations.
No
matter. This one has never been about ideas and
passion.
If
I were writing this column in mid-October, I think
I’d say the election is over—sure, we’ve still
got to go through the process, but that’s a
formality. Tim Kaine is going to be the next
governor of Virginia (and Creigh Deeds is going to
be the next attorney general.)
And
I think I’d say in mid-October that most of the
players in both camps know this—they’re just not
letting on that they do. They may even know it now.
The
Math: Virginia is a 10 point Republican state. If it
were just Kilgore and Kaine, the numbers, at the
beginning, at least among the ‘decideds,’ should
look like this: Kilgore 55 percent, Kaine 45
percent. But campaigns are never about the ‘decideds.’
Campaigns
are about the ‘undecideds,’ and how to move
them.
That’s
where the Kilgore campaign is in trouble. I see no
evidence that he is moving—or is going to
move—the ‘undecideds.’ Neither is Kaine. But
here’s the clincher: Kaine doesn’t have to move
them to win—Russ Potts and Mark Warner are going
to move them for him.
That’s
going to be the difference in November. Russ Potts
is going to get a lot of votes in this election.
Where will they come from? There are only two
places—either from Kilgore or Kaine. My sense is
that he’s taking them from both, but by a factor
of two to one more from Kilgore than from Kaine.
I
see Potts pulling 20 to 21 percent of the total vote
on election day.
Scream,
“That won’t happen!” as loud as you want to,
but at least consider what that scenario does to the
math, if, in fact, he’s pulling two to one more
from Kilgore than from Kaine. Kilgore’s 55 percent
goes to 41 percent. Kaine’s 45 percent goes to 38
percent.
The
Mark: Enter Mark Warner, the ‘closer,’ the
800-lb gorilla in the room of this election.
Anybody
who doesn’t think Mark Warner’s good for a two
to four percent premium to the Kaine side of the
equation on election day is not in touch with
reality.
Take
three percent from Kilgore’s 41 percent and add it
to Kaine’s 38 percent and what you get is going to
be close, in my opinion, to what happens: Kaine 41
percent, Kilgore 38 percent and Potts 21 percent.
Of
course, I might be wrong. Of course, it is still
early. But I’m not way, way wrong, and it’s not
way, way early.
This
election comes down to Potts-driven math and Mark
Warner—a difficult riddle for the Kilgore camp.
The Kilgore folks have, to date, not solved it, and
there is no evidence that they will. I’m not sure
that anyone could solve this one.
Kilgore
can’t run with Warner and hold his base; he
can’t run against Warner and win. After a year and
a half, Kilgore has, quite simply, failed to make a
credible case for throwing Mark Warner out of
office—and that’s what this election is about.
Tim
Kaine will be the ultimate beneficiary of this
M&M dilemma. And so will Virginia, in that
common sense government—Mark Warner’s
centrism—will continue to be the governing order
of the day.
--
September 5, 2005
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