George
Allen, Virginia’s
junior U.S. Senator, enjoyed a dramatic boost
several days ago when the National Journal
published the results of its survey of 215 political
insiders about likely presidential candidates in
2008. Allen
emerged as the leader among Republicans.
Meanwhile,
Gov. Mark R. Warner finished in third place behind
U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton and former U.S. Senator
John Edwards when the same insiders were queried
about potential Democratic presidential candidates
in the next nomination contest.
Some
observers expect Warner to challenge Allen for the
Senate seat when Allen runs for reelection in 2006.
If that happens, the loser of that contest is
almost certain to fall off the 2008 presidential
radar screen.
Although
neither Warner nor Allen is on the ballot this
November, their future campaigns will be profoundly
affected by the outcome of the 2005 elections in
Virginia,
particularly the gubernatorial election.
Former Virginia Attorney General Jerry
Kilgore, a candidate for the GOP nomination, is
viewed as Allen’s man, while Lieutenant Governor
Timothy Kaine, who is running unopposed for the
Democratic nomination, has Warner’s strong
backing.
Assuming
Kilgore wins the Republican gubernatorial nomination
on June 14, political pundits will surely treat the
Kaine-Kilgore match-up as a test of strength of
Warner and Allen. A
decisive victory in November will give the
victor’s political champion enormous momentum in
the presidential nomination contest.
Should
Kilgore win, Allen might avoid a challenge from
Warner in the 2006 Senate election.
Warner might be forced to reassess his run
for the White House in 2008.
But a Kaine victory in November will
undermine Allen’s prospects of winning the
Republican nomination in 2008 and leave him
vulnerable to a challenge in his 2006 reelection
campaign.
It
is obvious that much is at stake in 2005.
The
independent candidacy of Senator Russell Potts
can’t be anything but a headache for Allen.
Potts was an early Allen supporter in the
1993 gubernatorial nomination fight.
His decision to run for governor as an
independent this year was a stunning rebuke to
Allen.
If
Potts draws enough votes that would otherwise go to
Kilgore to deny Kilgore the election, he will
simultaneously deliver a punishing blow to Allen’s
future political aspirations.
A narrow Kilgore defeat in such a three-way
election might not be an automatic disqualification
of Allen from the 2008 presidential race, but it
would cause considerable damage.
Party
nomination contests are driven by perceptions.
Any apparent loss of momentum dampens
fundraising and public opinion.
The very kind of survey that boosted Allen
and Warner just days ago can also be their undoing
months from now.
The
Potts candidacy is a constant reminder of the
division among Virginia Republicans.
With Potts in the race, Kilgore has a choice.
He can play to moderate and liberal voters in
an effort to keep them from moving to Potts or he
can galvanize Republican loyalists and conservative
voters with a strong message.
He can’t do both.
To
the dismay of conservatives, Kilgore has failed to
lay out a genuine conservative vision and has
embraced moderate-to-liberal politicians in an
apparent effort to avoid being depicted as a right
wing candidate. As
George W. Bush showed in the 2004 presidential
campaign, a candidate can win with a conservative
message if he energizes his base rather than
following the traditional course of focusing on
undecided and moderate voters.
George
Allen understands the lesson of the 2004 election.
It remains to be seen whether Kilgore does.
--
May 9,
2005
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