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Wake
Up Call for Virginia GOP
Paula
Miller's victory in last month's special
Congressional election demonstrated Democratic Party
unity and organizational strength. Republicans
better get their act together.
The
contrast was striking.
On December 13, Republicans celebrated as Virginia’s electors cast their ballots for George Bush.
The next day was a big downer for the GOP as
a Democrat was elected to the Virginia House of
Delegates in a special election in Norfolk
to replace Republican Thelma Drake, who was recently
elected to replace U.S. Representative Ed Schrock.
Each
party raised the stakes in the December 14 special
election. Gov.
Mark R. Warner, a Democrat, campaigned for his
party’s candidate, Paula Miller.
The GOP candidate, Michael Ball, was boosted
by high profile support from U.S. Senator George
Allen, Attorney General
Jerry Kilgore
and U.S. Representative Drake.
Turnout
was light despite the participation of prominent
statewide politicians and the substantial amount of
campaign contributions that poured in to both
campaigns. Miller
appears to have outspent Ball during the brief race
in this highly competitive district.
Although
Drake prevailed over a strong Democratic opponent in
last month’s congressional contest, the voters in
her former legislative district supported John Kerry
by almost 62 percent.
The election between Miller and Ball appeared
to be a toss-up.
Two
things about the election must give Republicans
great concern. First,
the Democrats showed organizational strength, which
is an important factor in a low-turnout election.
Second, some moderate Republicans
supported Miller
over Ball in part because of Ball’s opposition to
higher taxes.
Ball
reopened wounds from the bitter tax battle earlier
this year in the General Assembly.
He announced he would have voted against
increasing state taxes, as Drake had done.
This activated supporters of the $1.4 billion
biennial state tax increase, who contributed heavily
to Miller’s campaign.
Because
of Warner’s obvious political aspirations, he had
much at stake in the special election. A
victory for anti-tax forces in this Democrat-leaning
district would have been a severe political blow to
the governor.
This
election has larger meaning than the pick-up of a
single House seat for the Democrats because of its
implication for elections next year.
The Democrats’ 2005 playbook will obviously
include the tactic of labeling GOP anti-tax
candidates as reckless ideologues bent on cutting
back popular government programs and unwilling to
take on pressing problems.
Republicans can anticipate an effort in 2005
to ally pro-tax Republican and independent voters
with a newly energized Democratic base.
If
the GOP remains a house divided, it will lose
control of one or both chambers of the General
Assembly during this decade.
Yet, there is no sign that Republican leaders
are prepared to take the steps required to reverse
course.
It
will take more than simply papering over the deep
division within the GOP. The party and its
candidates must construct a common vision. That
vision must appeal to the traditional Republican
base in order to succeed.
The electoral math won’t work otherwise.
The
current GOP leadership in the State Senate and the
17 House Republicans who supported the huge tax
increase earlier this year refuse to acknowledge
this political reality.
If both parties embrace a pro-tax agenda,
voters will ultimately gravitate to the party that
is more comfortable pursuing that agenda – the
Democratic Party.
The
GOP and its candidates must endorse a spending
reform agenda to recapture forward momentum and
cohesion. Warner
himself has handed the GOP all it needs — his
promise to cut $1 billion a year.
When will Republicans wake up?
--
January 4 2005
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