Without new resources for transportation, Virginia in 2005 will be stuck on a familiar road.

Virginia just isn’t going to be able to manage transportation demand by juicing unemployment.

Job growth creates transportation demand and new tax revenues. But transportation tax and user fees aren’t set in relation to actual needs in Virginia and they provide only a fraction of the public resources needed to meet demand. The price paid by Virginians trying to exist on half rations of transportation resources include everything from more accidents by frustrated drivers to time wasted in traffic or waiting for mass transit. For all its mass transit successes, for example, even Metrorail that serves Northern Virginia has no dedicated revenue source to meet capital and operating needs generated by a record growth in riders. Virginia can’t handle its success!

Neither is land use policy going to be a panacea. By definition, transportation demand grows faster than land use reform, although Fairfax County now is joining other Northern Virginia jurisdictions in approving higher density, mixed use development around Metrorail stations. Land use reform runs on a generational clock and political timetable. Time is measured in decades as researchers and policymakers add up how millions of Virginians have been traveling and philosophize on policies that could have them do it more efficiently. Land use reform always will lag transportation demand in a growing Virginia economy, because new points-of-policy-view evolve slowly regardless how fast Virginians are making new connections on the road, rail or online.

So what is a soon-to-reconvene General Assembly to do after it concludes yet another round of speeches and committee meetings that earnestly express concern?  

The most traditional response is to raise the tax on gasoline and other fuels that long have been seen as “user fees” that finance transportation. Unfortunately, the increase would have to be huge--say another quarter or fifty cents a gallon--to produce revenues of significance. Gov. Mark R. Warner won’t propose such an increase and leading members of the General Assembly, who have watched gasoline at the pump bump past $2.00 a gallon in recent months, indicate this is no time to approve a larger transportation user fee.

A second possible response is to appropriate new general fund dollars to transportation. Senate Finance Committee Chairman John Chichester among others, however, has made it clear that he will never support such a course. To do so would pit the bow wave of transportation demands against every other state government spending priority, including higher education, public education and public safety. The withering of the so-called “Priority Transportation Fund” begun in the years of former Gov. James Gilmore is more than a sign of winter. 

A third proposal would dedicate some new “surplus” dollars as backing for the Commonwealth to issue new transportation bonds. Budget experts, however, admit that there actually is no surplus after considering growth in education, Medicaid and other core state obligations. The number of Virginia students, prisoners and seniors just keep growing faster than tax revenues. There are also questions about the prudence of borrowing billions more, which for many override a clear advantage of borrowing money: Bond covenants act as a “lock box” on dedicated bond proceeds that cannot be raided.

Gov. Warner has proposed a modest set of initiatives, ranging from restoring transportation trust fund dollars used to balance the general fund budget in past years to establishing funds to encourage more initiatives by the private sector and local governments. He acknowledged in his December 17 budget speech that additional revenues were required, but he didn’t ask for them.

So constructing a consensus among General Assembly members on the nature of the problem and on the urgency of a solution remain critical first steps. Meanwhile, transportation inadequacies and delays continue to hurt the economy by raising costs for goods and services. Committing to a solution now is a second step. Those 3.8+ million employed Virginians might just value getting lots of time back more than a little more tax cut. In any event, both steps have to be taken before policymakers can sit down to negotiate the actual shape of a solution. The tail cannot wag the dog.

Perhaps it’s time for Virginians to consider something far beyond good intentions and the wistful hope that 2005 will bring a long overdue federal highway bill with billions of dollars more for Virginia airports, rail and highways.

Might the Commonwealth borrow some of the Iraqi reconstruction funds, which aren’t being committed in Fallujah or Tikrit until security improves? After all, it’s “our” money. Security is pretty good here and Virginia is now executing most transportation projects on time and on budget. We can justify the transportation improvements needed in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads on homeland security grounds. We can honor our troops by not only giving their families in-state tuition at Virginia community colleges and universities, but also timely and safe transportation alternatives to and from class.

Maybe that’s a commitment we can build on even if it does involve new investments.

-- January 4, 2005