|
Got
to Pick a Pocket or Two
Central
characters from the musical adaptation of a
Dickens novel may have the best advice for budget
conferees in Richmond.
Lines
from the 1968 hit musical Oliver!
keep echoing in my head as the General Assembly enters budget crunching time.
Based on the Charles Dickens novel Oliver
Twist, the musical won six Academy Awards that
year, including Best Picture.
Many
will remember the central characters that include
the young orphan Oliver, workhouse overseer Mr.
Bumble, a lovable villain named Fagin and
pick-pocketing specialist The Artful Dodger. As
the General Assembly moves steadily toward its
scheduled March 13th adjournment date,
members may find the lines of these characters in
their own mouths.
Early
on in the show, for example, Mr. Bumble sings
“More? Never before has a boy wanted more!”
when the still-
hungry
Oliver approaches head down and bowl out. Later,
it’s “Boy for sale” as Mr. Bumble tries to
unload his charge for a fee. When faced with a
dilemma, the adoptive Fagin uses the chorus
“I’m reviewing the situation” to work
through his options and identify the best course
of action. Finally, Fagin concludes with The
Artful Dodger that the only solution to make ends
meet is “Got to pick a pocket or two.”
These
lines suggest the classic nature, not to mention
the potential entertainment value ahead, in the
discussions now underway in earnest in Richmond. More resources, differences of opinion, fees
for service, reviewing the situation and picking a
pocket or two are as good a summary of the
questions facing House and Senate budget conferees
as any.
The
great hits of the musical, including “Consider
Yourself (One of Us)” and “Where is Love?”
also could be adapted to reflect difficult
financial circumstances, the naming of two
first-time House conferees and the challenges of
solving the budget problem, holding Republican
leadership together and favorably impressing
voters at home.
There
also is another example of the three degrees of
separation phenomenon. You know the process that
actor Kevin Bacon has the same last name as
Jim Bacon
, who publishes Bacon's Rebellion, which has
commentary on taxes and spending every week, etc.
Fagin on stage and in the movie Oliver!
was played by British actor Ron Moody. And while
the actor was not a founding member of Moody’s
Investor Services,
Moody’s is now readying its credit opinion and
commentary on Virginia
for more than 3,000
institutions and 20,000 subscribers around the
globe.
In
dramatic fashion on February 11, Steven Kantor,
President of Arimax Financial Advisors Inc.,
reviewed for a joint meeting of the House
Appropriations and Finance Committees how the bond
rating process works, why the rating is important
to Virginians and what options were available to
legislators seeking to keep Moody’s Aaa rating.
Arimax is an independent financial advisor to
states and currently is under contract to the
Commonwealth’s Treasury Board.
Moody’s,
along with Standard & Poor’s and
FitchRatings, Kantor said, analyzes the ability of
a bond issuer to pay, the condition of the state
economy, the amount and types of deft issue and
the financial performance and management abilities
of a state in making recommendations. As was well
publicized in 2003, Moody’s placed Virginia
on its watch list in
recognition of some difficulties and shortcomings
in these areas.
Now
Moody’s is almost an ex-officio member of the
House Finance, House Appropriations and Senate
Finance committees as legislators piece together a
Virginia budget for the two fiscal years that
begin July 1, 2004. Moody’s is, as Ron Moody’s
Fagin suggests, “reviewing the situation” with
an eye toward future action.
Specific
in its review thus far has been suggestions for Virginia
to address its revenue
shortfall, restore a structural balance in
accounts and restore the revenue stabilization
fund. Moody’s suggestions seem to preclude a
reliance on one-time revenue increases and
one-time reductions in spending. The House of
Delegates, as a result, has joined with the Senate
and Gov. Mark R. Warner in acknowledging the need
for more revenue that would be collected under the
existing tax and fee regime in the Commonwealth.
Still, some legislators sound a little like Mr.
Bumble, with a “never before has the Assembly
needed more” refrain and there remains huge
chasm between a Senate plan that might produce
$1.8 billion more annually and a House plan.
Warner’s original plans about halfway in
between.
The
question is whether now is time when a creative
cast of conferees can deliver an Academy
Award-winning performance for the Commonwealth.
There are veterans on all sides starting with
Senate Finance Committee Chairman John Chichester,
R-Stafford, and House Appropriations Committee
Chairman Vince Callahan, R-Fairfax. But there also
are new actors Delegates Kirk Cox, R-Colonial
Heights, and Johnny Joannou, D-Portsmouth.
“Picking
a pocket or two” inevitably will be a part of
the solution. Really organized pocket-picking is
required, in fact, or Moody’s (and other rating
agencies) almost certainly will downgrade
Virginia’s bond rating, thereby taking the
Commonwealth out of the short list of seven states
still rated at AAA by all three rating agencies
(Delaware, Georgia, Maryland, Missouri, South
Carolina and Utah are the others). But the movie
business also shows that increased box office
receipts can presage good reviews at awards time.
Most
importantly in the case of a successful ending,
Virginians can avoid scripting two other Dickens
classics into something both discouraging and
disappointing. (Not So) Great
Expectations or A
Tale of (Lots More Than) Two
(Underfunded) Cities
certainly aren’t award winners in any year.
Ask recently downgraded Michigan, Minnesota
and North Carolina.
--
March 1, 2004
|
