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What
Happened Tuesday?
Virginia’s
primary elections June 10 produced individual
triumphs and disappointments, but no real
surprises.
The
most important things in state politics usually
are laying around in plain view. There aren’t
many secrets for very long. What mysteries do
arise, such as how
Virginia
business interests and Republican legislators got
so at odds over pro-business rankings of Virginia
FREE, usually can be unraveled
fairly quickly.
That
means the headlines Virginians have been reading
since the June 10 primary elections, such as
“Moderate Senators Win” and “GOP Sends
Rollison Packing” and “Locke Captures
Nomination” accurately reflect the election
results. But while the primaries produced
individual triumphs and disappointments, often on
margins of a few hundred votes, there were no real
surprises. The results, in fact, reinforce some
basic rules of politics.
One
rule is that using reapportionment of population
and realignment of districts once every 10 years
to pack Republican and Democratic voters into more
highly partisan legislative districts encourages
intra-party competition. Add a healthy number of
open seats from retirements of incumbents, and
both the Republican and Democratic Parties staged
a relatively high number of primary, firehouse
primary or mass-meeting selection processes for
delegate and senate seats.
A
second rule is that voters re-elect incumbents,
regardless of electoral environment, issues,
campaign brilliance, money, weather or any other
factor. The exception that proves this rule was
the primary loss of Del. John A. “Jack”
Rollison, R-Woodbridge, in southern Prince William
County’s House District 52. Rollison had served
in the House since 1985 and risen to chair the
House Transportation Committee and to the sixth
ranking seat on the House Appropriations
Committee. How a handful of Prince William County
voters could toss such seniority and power away at
the same time transportation is at the top of
their problems list can only be explained by rule
number three.
A
third, and the most ironclad, rule is that all
politics is local. That means it involves
circumstances and characteristics that remain
cloudy to those who do not “live there.” How
novice Jeff Frederick could best Rollison by a
1,443 to 1,089 vote or how Adam Ebbin could win a
five-person Democratic primary in Arlington with
29.65 percent of the vote (Ebbin got 771 votes) or
how Mamie Locke (48 percent) edged former judge
Verbena Askew (46 percent) involve explanations
beyond the tax issues, party dynamics, yadda yadda
offered up by state political commentators.
With
those three rules in mind, answers to the question
“What really happened in primary elections on
Tuesday?” are pretty straight forward. Sen. John
H. Chichester, R-Stafford, the Senate Finance
Committee chairman, beat the socks off his
challenger by taking over 70 percent of the vote.
Finance Committee colleague and Republican floor
leader Sen. Thomas K. “Tommy” Norment, Jr.
turned back a well-funded, relentless attacker
with over 62 percent of the vote. Sen. H. Russell
“Russ” Potts, Jr., Chairman of the Senate
Education & Health Committee, eased past his
challenger with just over 50 percent of the vote.
And Del. Jeannemarie Devolites, R-Vienna, easily
won the Republican nomination for the state senate
with over 73 percent of the vote.
Combined with
the failure of the Democratic Party to attract a
couple more heavyweight Senate challengers, former
delegates C. Richard Cranwell and W.W. “Ted”
Bennett, Jr. being foremost among those mentioned
in public, the Republican primary results mean
those in charge still will be in charge in 2004.
Remember, though a seat or two might change hands,
incumbents win.
Incumbents
won despite opponents whose main message is “I
am not him.” Challengers Mike Rothfeld and Paul
Jost respectively (actually, disrespectfully)
asked for referendums on the performances of senators
Chichester and Norment. Rothfeld and Jost got
smoked. Forrest Ward used an “I don’t like
him” message in an attempt to upset Del. Thomas
D. Gear in Hampton’s 91st District.
Gear won with 62 percent, like it or not.
Highly
partisan legislative districts also produce
another phenomenon – primary candidates who run
unopposed in the November elections. Adam Ebbin,
for example, just has to wait for his pro
forma November ballot endorsement to become
the new delegate from Arlington’s District 49.
Neighbor Al Eisenberg wasn’t even opposed for
the Democratic nomination to fill a seat in
Arlington’s District 47 and has no Republican
opponent. Democrat Onzlee Ware gets the nod in
Roanoke’s District 11 without further
opposition. So does Republican Edward T. Scott in
Culpepper’s District 30.
Whether
more districts without real inter-party challenges
in November is a good thing for voters never has
been much of a consideration in redistricting
exercises. Modern scorched-earth politics actually
leaves little room for considerations of anything
other than partisan electoral advantage. Even
governance can get short shrift.
Certainly
future transportation needs along Route 1 or I-66
didn’t dissuade Prince William County
Republicans from throwing out their own
transportation and appropriations leader. Having
rejected the sales tax referendum idea for
transportation solutions in 2002, this very small
number didn’t even want to be reminded that
there is a problem. Nor did the prospect of
Verbena Askew taking some revenge in the Senate on
those who sat in judgment of her judgeship earlier
this year carry the day in Hampton. Politics just
looks like a soap opera sometimes.
Instead,
voters again endorsed candidates with at least a
little sense, a little experience, a little
leadership and a little approachability.
Virginians who voted seem to have stiff-armed the
most obnoxious and least thoughtful. At least
voters can hope they did. But they did confirm
again the bottom line truth about electoral
politics: Someone is going to win, even if no one
is any good; only one will win, even if several
are good; and more always trumps how many.
--
June
16, 2003
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