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Paint-by-the-numbers
kits used to be a staple in dime stores. For a
child, parents who bought them thought, what could
be more fun than filling in pre-numbered spaces with
pre-numbered colors of paint to produce the Mona
Lisa or the
Hudson
River
Valley? Creating
art and, not incidentally, being praised for
becoming an artist in the process seemed like fun.
And it wasn't that hard to clean up.
But
as we've grown up, we've come to know painting by
the numbers really isn't art. The technique
inevitably produces ugly pictures that bear little
resemblance to known works. Art, instead, requires
real vision and understanding, real instincts about
the essence of life and real skills in capturing and
translating those things with brush, sculpting
tools, soaring melody, the right words or a camera.
Neither space on a canvas, nor colors have
pre-assigned numbers.
Yet,
paint-by-the-numbers seems to be the way Virginia's
elected leaders expect its citizens to think about
the future for education, public safety, health care
and other services delivered by government. Some of
the numbers seem positive. Consumer spending is
strong, the housing market is strong and
unemployment is holding at four percent. Virginia's
unemployment rate, for example, is a fraction of the
7.8 percent rate in Silicon
Valley. Budget
specialists in the General Assembly and in the
administration acknowledge the state's economy seems
to be past the trough, that the worst is past, that
leading indicators are improving.
As
a result both the House Appropriations and Senate
Finance Committees this week heard reports that
sales tax receipts are up a little more than
forecast and so are insurance payments, recordation
tax receipts and lottery proceeds. Income tax
withholding payments are holding steady. So if these
money committees cut $3.8 billion in spending
earlier in 2002 and Governor Mark R. Warner has
reduced spending by another $858 million since then,
what could be the problem now?
It
turns out some of the numbers are negative. The
Commonwealth
of
Virginia
has a
large structural imbalance in its fiscal affairs.
What is a structural imbalance? For a family, not
having the money to pay the mortgage one month could
be a management problem. Not having the money to pay
the mortgage for twenty years would be a structural
imbalance, particularly if your family expects to
keep living in the house.
For
the Commonwealth, the structural imbalance means
that general fund revenues are not large enough to
cover core state government responsibilities –
education, public safety, health services and tax
cuts. Part of the problem is
Virginia
's arcane
tax system, whose shortfalls are well-documented but
remain unchanged. The structural imbalance means
that even an improving economy will not boost state
revenues as fast as demographics (more older
Virginians consuming more health care, more younger
Virginians consuming education) and expectations
(standards of quality, more protection from
criminals and terrorists, cut my taxes) will boost
spending obligations.
That
structural imbalance means for all the budget
adjustments made to date in 2002, there are still
another $1 billion or more to be made next year.
3,500 more K-12 students in the state require $36
million more. Car tax relief jumps $128 million more
than forecast as those zero percent financing deals
close. Obligations under Medicaid grow by $159
million more than forecast and the list goes on.
Unfortunately,
Virginia's budget
leaders don't seem to be able to get past a
paint-by-the-numbers approach to meet these
challenges. As House Appropriations Committee staff
made clear in briefings earlier this month, 70
percent of the actions taken in the 2002 General
Assembly session were one-time adjustments to
spending or new fees that will be impossible to
replicate annually. Twenty percent of the total
savings, for example, came from cutting higher
education operational funds, which along with
further reductions, has prompted 40 percent plus
tuition increases at most public colleges and
universities for 2003.
Revelations
this week that both the House Appropriations and
Senate Finance Committees will be content to cut
state government programs, personnel and operations
by another billion dollars in 2003 means more of the
same short-term thinking about a long-term problem.
Without a fundamental restructuring of both
government spending and government revenues, such
actions will be another set of one-time adjustments
which neither solve the fiscal problem, nor advance
larger goals and objectives. Just as filling in
pre-numbered spaces with pre-numbered colors isn't
art, trying to manage the Commonwealth's structural
imbalance with one-time budget cuts isn't fiscal
responsibility.
Some
leaders in the Commonwealth argue that voters do not
want tax increases, therefore, legislators are not
at liberty to consider them. By definition in a
representative democracy, the choices voters make
are the correct ones. But the correctness of the
choice also is predicated on the questions being put
squarely.
What
is responsible is helping citizens understand that a
structural imbalance is not a temporary situation
the Commonwealth can just "get through."
What is responsible is helping citizens understand
the imbalance is deep and enduring enough to
threaten long-term achievement of Standards of
Learning and Standards of Quality in public schools.
The imbalance will limit our capability to fight
crime, prosecute criminals and respond to
terrorists. The imbalance will cut economic
development initiatives for communities with high
unemployment. The imbalance will leave tens of
thousands of elderly and indigent parents and
grandparents weaker and sicker.
If
the budget goal is to get the pre-numbered colors in
the pre-numbered spaces, it might look responsible
for the Commonwealth to keep cutting learning,
safety, opportunity and health. An approach that
places public education, public safety and health
care lower on the list of state priorities than
cutting taxes or avoiding new revenues,
unfortunately, leaves the Commonwealth with its
structurally ugly picture. Something with a little
more vision, understanding, instinct, essence and
skill -- a skilled artistic approach that
accomplishes Virginia's real
goals – learning, safety, opportunity and health
– produces a much better picture for the future.
And maybe even some artists.
--
November 25, 2002
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