Koelemay's Kosmos

Doug Koelemay

Gonna Win

Northern Virginia's half-cent sales tax for transportation is running in the mainstream. Finally, the region will be able to jump start road, rail and transit solutions.

In the heart of what was supposed to be opposition territory, the Loudoun County Chamber of Commerce just threw a love-in for the Northern Virginia transportation referendum that regional voters will approve November 5. The Democratic Governor headlined the luncheon meeting. Prominent Republican legislators were front and center. Executives from businesses large (AOL) and small (Hinge) in a locality, where very few things have been certain over the last decade, praised the initiative and workability of the referendum proposal.

Why the growing confidence that the proposal to raise the sales tax by one-half cent in the region and devote the proceeds to transportation will pass? Because the chamber lunch showed just how deep and wide the pro-referendum forces now run. Unlike many political questions invented by politicians, for politicians, transportation is a problem Northern Virginians climb into every morning and every evening Most days they live the aggravations that gridlock causes – missed appointments, missed family activities, frustration, anger, dangerous driving, accidents.

Social scientists know that negatives and frustrations are critical parts of any change equation but that they, alone, cannot provoke remedial action. Change requires an expectation that things can get better. And that key ingredient – the belief that things can get better, that Northern Virginians have the power to affect a better transportation future – is what’s making a difference for referendum champions. The sales tax is positioned in the mainstream as a workable alternative to endless gridlock in Virginia's most prosperous region – even in schizophrenic Loudoun County, which, as it ponders the benefits and drawbacks of rapid growth in population, incomes, property values and automobiles, appears stuck in a replay of the laboratory scene of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde

Gov. Mark R. Warner led the Loudoun charge with a succinct explanation of how and why the referendum proposal got on the ballot, including how 32 of the 35 regional delegates and senators voted to put it there. He pitched its value to businesses and employees as an essential piece of the region's economic future. He fielded questions about why a sales tax increase was preferable to a hike in the gasoline tax and how state government could guarantee that none of the money would be siphoned to other regions or to other types of projects. These were the same kinds of questions that alternately boosted or broke other regional referendum proposals over the last few years in the General Assembly.

Sorry to disappoint the paranoid, but it turns out there really isn't a conspiracy and the answers are pretty straightforward. A small, half-cent sales tax increase in Northern Virginia produces more money that a huge increase in the gasoline tax. It would take an increase in the state gasoline tax from 17.5 cents to 50 cents a gallon to produce the same amount of revenue. Polls as long as four years ago showed citizens preferences for a sales tax increase over a gasoline or an income tax increase.

On guarantees that the Northern Virginia sales tax increases would stay dedicated in Northern Virginia to transportation projects, Warner made clear first that these assurances are in the law. The proceeds will go to projects identified and administered by the Northern Virginia Transportation Authority, which is made up of Northern Virginians. He added that an audit committee or comparable mechanism would ensure there is no diversion or dilution of other transportation monies the region would otherwise be entitled to. Furthermore, he noted, that neither he, as governor, nor the Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads General Assembly delegations, who make up a near majority in the General Assembly, would not allow regional transportation funds to be diverted.

Sen. Bill Mims, R-Leesburg, who delicately managed General Assembly approval of the Northern Virginia Transportation Authority over the last three years, spoke firmly of the need for Loudoun voters to seize "one of the solutions" needed. And he praised the leadership and determination of a governor from another political party. "After seven p.m. on election day, we all have to turn down the partisanship to get things done," Mims said. Del. Joe May, R-Leesburg, nodded agreement.

But as veterans of State Capitol proceedings will understand, no speaker out performed State Senator Russ Potts, R-Winchester, whose district now includes western Loudoun. Potts made clear he saw the referendum as a challenge for Virginia, not just one region or one political leader. "Virginia is the 12^th largest state in the union," he thundered, "and the 12^th richest state in the union and it's time we started acting like it in solving our problems.

"We're gonna win," Potts concluded, "because this referendum gives us a chance to show what we are for. What people stand for is what people remember. Opponents of this initiative can never explain what they are for, just that they are against."

Actually, opponents do trot out a list of things they are for. They just don't do a very convincing job of why that works for the region in this case. Some environmental groups, for example, claim they are for controlling growth. Fine. Unfortunately, Northern Virginia already has two million people trying to move around on a transportation system engineered for half that many. Not improving transportation didn't stop growth. This referendum for the first time will put dollars for transportation in the same hands, the local government-dominated Northern Virginia Transportation Authority, that control land-use decisions.

Some good-government advocates claim they are for a more rational tax system statewide first. Sorry, we all stopped holding our breath on that one. Some want to hold the line on taxes. Of course, they are the same people who created the need for this referendum by pushing state tax cuts so large that the Commonwealth has no hope of marshalling any dramatic new resources for transportation. Virginia just took $3 billion worth of their phantom transportation projects supported by their phantom revenues off the books. Enough of that comic strip. Finally, some lament the regressive nature of the sales tax. Wake up, the whole state tax structure in Virginia is regressive.

The severity of the facts – third worst congestion in America – and the viability of a solution right here, right now have combined to forge a coalition of informed, determined, realistic voters in Northern Virginia. Most do not appear to have been misled by convoluted arguments against the referendum, although arguments such as, "This is just a Trojan horse being dangled in front of local governments," could still catch fire with voters – well, maybe in bizarro world.

Here is the bottom line: The one-half cent sales tax increase to the average family in Northern Virginia amounts to 25 cents a day. Half of us throw that into the tip jar at Starbuck's every morning and the other half waste more than that in gasoline every day as we idle in traffic. Along with flex time, telework, public-private partnership projects -- such as special taxing district and privately financed projects on Dulles Route 28 -- and everything else Virginians can muster, the sales tax increase is part of the Northern Virginia transportation solution.

So you heard it here: The Northern Virginia sales tax referendum for transportation will pass on November 5^th. And all of Virginia should cheer. Hand-wringers in the General Assembly or in local governments who don't have a referendum question this fall can stop worrying. You gave people in the two most transportation-challenged regions of the Commonwealth the chance to marshal their own resources to help their economies and their quality of life. They're going to make a good choice and their regional authorities are going to improve transportation. That's a pretty good day at the office and another example of how regions and local governments are determined to solve problems.

-- Oct. 7, 2002