By Steve Haner
If the overall case fatality rate for COVID-19 is 4 tenths of one percent, as the Centers for Disease Control just estimated, then perhaps 300,000 Virginians have or have had the disease. That’s working the math backwards from the 1,200 Virginia deaths reported so far.
The chart below snipped from the CDC’s report shows four possible scenarios and the fifth column is marked “most likely” case fatality rate. As we all now know, age is the key factor, and the death rate for persons 65+ is the highest, perhaps as high as 3.2%. But the CDC thinks most likely it is 1.3% in that group, and as low as 0.05% for those under 50 (5 deaths in 10,000 infections).
Source: CDC. The right hand column is marked as the most likely case fatality rates, with other four columns showing the range. Click for larger view.
Here’s the similar chart from a recently-released antibody study in Spain, with a random sample of around 70,000 individuals. The Fear Mongers point to the conclusion that only 5% of the country’s population shows antibodies, although it is far higher where the disease was more common. But the first column is the calculated infection fatality rate, IFR, very similar to the CDC study.
These current estimates fit with what some experts were predicting months ago, and you still don’t want to get sick if you can avoid it, those of us in the higher age bracket in particular.
But the real risk estimates explain the photo above. Our doctor-governor, not being 65 yet, had no problem wandering around the Virginia Beach boardwalk yesterday, sans mask and standing socially near to various happy beach-going voters. One photo shows an outstretched hand, but perhaps it was not for a handshake.
It gets better. On Friday at his news conference the Governor reminded everybody that since Richmond was still under the stay at home order, residents of that fair city should not travel unless it is essential. The same applies to Northern Virginia and Accomack.
“Unless it’s essential, we don’t expect people to be traveling in those particular areas,” Northam said. “They are still under the stay-at-home order, so we would encourage them to abide by those guidelines.” (Emphasis added.) It’s from this Richmond Times-Dispatch story, but I also heard him say it.
I’m sorry, where does he live? Oh, yeah — Pirate’s Cove on the Outer Banks! Follow the link and read all about it! Richmond is just his weekday place.
Do this little thought experiment: Imagine those photos were of Donald J. Trump. Those you would see constantly. CNN would be in hysterics.
The CDC and Spanish serology study results will never, ever get deeply reported. Most stories on the Spanish data I saw focused on how only 5% of the country had antibodies so far and said that’s bad news. If that is also true in Virginia (425,000 people), I think it great news.
