by James A. Bacon
Holy smokes! The latest data suggests that COVID-19 epidemic has not only peaked in Virginia but has begun receding. The contagion is not over by a long shot — we could even get a bounce back later in the year — but the trends are moving in a positive direction right now.
New hospitalizations have stabilized, the number of COVID-19 patients in hospitals is declining and the number of patients receiving intensive treatment by being placed in ICUs or on ventilators is steadily going down.
Although a record 1,055 new cases of COVID-19 were confirmed in the numbers compiled yesterday (and reported this morning), that’s only because a massive number of tests — almost three time larger than in any previous day — were reported to the Virginia Department of Health (VDH). The good news is that the 14,805 tests yielded only a 7.1% positive rate, the lowest rate since the end of March.
Governor Ralph Northam has set a goal of a minimum of 10,000 tests per day as a pre-condition for relaxing emergency restrictions on social and economic activity. If the surge in testing indicated in today’s results published by the VDH is sustained, the lifting of some measures may not be far off.
Here are the numbers you’ve all been hoping for. From the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association:
Total COVID-19 patients hospitalized (confirmed and pending test results): 1,432, down 119
COVID-19 patients in the ICU: 366, down six
COVID-19 patients on ventilators: 193, down 15
Hospitals expecting difficulty replenishing PPEs: two
I previously rejected the VDH’s COVID-19 “confirmed” cases count as a meaningful metric for the spread of the virus (a) because it represents only a small fraction of all COVID cases, and (b) it reflects the volume of testing and protocols used rather than the actual incidence of the disease. The data reported today totally validates my approach. The number of new cases jumped by more than 1,000, but only because a flood of test results were reported to VDH. The percentage of positive tests declined precipitously to 7.1%. Clearly, a large volume of tests from commercial labs, which test a wider cross-section of the population, are flowing into the VDH now.
It’s a beautiful day here in Henrico County. Go outside and get some fresh air and sunshine. Ultra violet rays are a great COVID-19 killer. Just be sure to continue maintaining a respectful social distance!
Update: John Butcher provides this graph from the IMHE model developed by the University of Washington. Many have been critical of the model for overstating the severity of the COVID-19 spread. Whatever. Today, it agrees with me, and that’s all that matters!
