The Party Realignment Accelerates

by James A. Bacon

Brandon Jarvis, author of the Virginia Political Newsletter, sums up the latest Emerson College/Nexstar Media poll of the Virginia gubernatorial election. Democrat Terry McAuliffe leads Republican Glenn Youngkin by one percentage point, with two percentage points undecided. Yes, it’s a tight race, but the demographic breakdown is what’s most interesting.

McAuliffe leads with women 51% to 45%, while Youngkin leads with men 50% to 46%. McAuliffe also leads among Black voters (72% to 25%), while Youngkin leads among White voters (53% to 45%) and Hispanic voters (55% to 45%).

Wait, what? Youngkin garners 25% support from Blacks? He gets 55%, an outright majority, among Hispanics? But his lead among White voters has shriveled. When was the last time a Republican candidate got such numbers?

It looks like a major political realignment is going on. Despite Democrats’ fervent efforts to portray Republicans as the party of racists, it is apparent that a lot of minorities are not buying the message.

What is the new fault line in Virginia politics? I’ll have more to say about that tomorrow.


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26 responses to “The Party Realignment Accelerates”

  1. LarrytheG Avatar

    If the GOP gets elected, and they might – will they revert to what they often do and cater to their hard right base or will they try to do the things that will further pull-in blacks, Hispanics and Asians?

    I got a prediction.

    If the GOP wins , and yes they might, will they HOLD onto power by embracing more than just their hard right base or will they blow it – …again?

    1. Stephen Haner Avatar
      Stephen Haner

      What you’ve “got” is prejudice. As in, to pre-judge. I can just as easily predict (with more basis) that a Democratic victory will lead to higher taxes, the end of Right to Work, and a doubling down on our rush over the cliff to unreliable and much more expensive energy. This fellow reminds many of us of Bob McDonnell, and on a policy basis his term had a fair amount of success. Even a transportation tax bill that angered many in his own party. McDonnell was a great delegate, great AG, and then a great governor, who needlessly blotted his own copybook. I was a fan from his first year in the House.

      To the extent more black or Hispanic voters are considering Youngkin, it will be on the basis of policy. Many are pro-life. They too want low taxes, effective schools, a growing economy, reliable and cheap energy….That is WHY the whole Democratic focus now is racism, division and victimhood. They can’t run on actual success (dropping SOLs, VEC, DMV, etc.) Deliver success and the GOP can hold a while. ‘Tis a great pendulum…

      1. LarrytheG Avatar

        Naw. What I got is a clear historic memory of how the GOP governs when it gets power.

        Here’s the problem and you already know it because it’s been ongoing and a bit of a miracle that Youngkin managed to be the GOP choice.

        When/If he gets in office, the hard right will jump on him and demand he do things and it will include the Amanda Chase and Trumpeters.

        And yes, McDonnell did the RIGHT THING on Transportation and look at who attacked him relentlessly..

        ” Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell Signs Largest Tax Hike in Virginia History into Law”

        and worse, what Gilmore did which is an abomination… to this day!

        1. Stephen Haner Avatar
          Stephen Haner

          Not even close to the largest tax hike. 🙂 I’ve never tried to adjust for inflation, but that might still be Mark Warner’s, and guess who helped push that one over the top? (Ahem, yep, me.) He will be under no more pressure from the far end of the spectrum than McAuliffe will. TMac has already flipped more often than the dolphins and seals at Sea World. Look at what Biden is going through now. That’s TMac in six months if he wins.

          1. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
            James Wyatt Whitehead

            New campaign ad for Terri. I used to love to watch the reruns of this show.

          2. LarrytheG Avatar

            the point was the Conservatives went after McDonnell and castigated him for the “largest tax increase”, RIght?

            Biden, to the Dems credit is having to deal with the Dem moderates who are not going to go for the hard left idiocy on budget.

            Can we trust the Trump-loving GOP to stand for fiscal conservatism and doing what is right?

            Do I trust the Trump-loving GOP?


            And I bet you are having doubts also….

  2. Eric the half a troll Avatar
    Eric the half a troll

    Hmmm…I missed the BR posts on the prior eight consecutive polls that had McAuliffe up between 3 and 9 points…. including the Monmouth poll where “McAuliffe continues to have an advantage among voters of color – 83% to 3% among Black voters and 53% to 28% among Latinos, Asians, and multiracial voters”. Missed those reports, JAB…

    1. LarrytheG Avatar

      Well, let’s put it this way. Youngin has a better chance than Corey Stewart or Amanda Chase and that’s got some GOP on the verge of orgasms…

    2. Fair point. Could reflect wishful thinking on my part.

    3. DJRippert Avatar

      Feel free to write up a post and submit it to Jim Bacon for publication if you believe one side is being underrepresented.

      1. Eric the half a troll Avatar
        Eric the half a troll

        I only work in run-on sentences…

  3. tmtfairfax Avatar

    The obsession by the Democrats on illegal immigrants without enforcement and Biden “just come on in” policy turns off a lot of people.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar

      Well a lot of GOP like George Bush also wanted immigrants – right? A lot of the GOP used to be that way.


    2. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
      Dick Hall-Sizemore

      I don’t think the thousands of expat Haitians put on planes to be taken to Haiti, a country they had fled many years ago, would agree with you about “without enforcement”.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar

        The thing I don’t understand about the would-be Haitian immigrants is that more than a few of them left Haiti years ago and immigrated to South American countries where they had jobs, cars, homes and their kids in public school and apparently they tossed all that away to “walk” from places like Chili to Mexico because they “heard” that Biden would let them in.

        These folks have kids and that trek is a dangerous one full of danger and peril.

        I just don’t get it.

        Where are these folks going to go if the US won’t take them? Back to Chili? Is that where the US should fly them back to instead of Haiti?

      2. Stephen Haner Avatar
        Stephen Haner

        Even Biden’s thought-slaves in the national media have reported that the vast majority from Del Rio got into the U.S. If we know that, surely the one’s waiting to try again know that.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar

          so this is a lie:

          ” Most of the migrants in Del Rio, Tex., camp have been sent to Haiti or turned back to Mexico, DHS figures show”

        2. “Thought slaves” — great term.

      3. tmtfairfax Avatar

        A new poll by the often-cited Quinnipiac University polling group shows that 695 of Hispanic polled don’t approve of Biden’s immigration policies and 68% of Hispanics polled don’t approve of how Biden is handling the situation at the Mexican border.

        This suggests to me that many working people understand that the availability of people not eligible to work in the U.S. in the U.S. job market represses wages and job opportunities. Likewise, the presence of illegal immigrants push up the need for more government services and higher taxes, especially at the local government level.

        Biden’s open arms messages to people not eligible to enter the U.S., made to please the woke, has made the illegal immigration situation much worse. Is it surprising that Hispanic Americans would not find Biden’s performance unacceptable?

        Economic problems at home is not a reason under U.S. law to be able to enter the U.S. Biden’s approach insults every immigrant who followed the rules to join us in the U.S.

        If a compromise on immigration is to be forthcoming, such that people who have come here illegally but have generally followed the rules and are willing to pay any back taxes, depends on including aggressive enforcement of the immigration laws most especially on employers.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar

          The “compromise” has been on the table for some time and it was supported by many GOP before Trump infected the party.

          Most folks support a path to citizenship.

          Most folks want employers to be sanctioned when they do not abide by E-Verify.

          But right now, MOST Republicans oppose it and it’s hard to figure out exactly what a majority of GOP actually does support because a good number of GOP on the hard right are staunchly opposed to immigration – period.

          Don’t blame the Dems or WaPo for this – it’s totally on the GOP.

          1. tmtfairfax Avatar

            Give me a break. The Democrats won’t support enforcement. Enforcement means you stop people from entering the United States when they are not authorized. It means not allowing people to use economic hardship as a way to get asylum. It means forcing employers to use E-Verify. It means ending catch and release. It means requiring people to stay in Mexico pending processing their asylum claims. It means fining businesses that violate the immigration laws. It means deporting felons.

            Enact and implement strong enforcement laws and give illegal immigrants who have stayed clean and pay back taxes a right to stay. Citizenship gives incentives for more people to come illegally.

          2. LarrytheG Avatar

            I think you’re wrong. If there is a legitimate path to citizenship then not doing it right will get no sympathy.

            Truth is when you have no real legitimate path, it’s pretty much Katy bar the door.

            And liberals are opposed to immigrants being preyed on by employers who want to pay them less and essentially enslave them AND use them to lower wages for citizens jobs.

            I think you’ll find that there are folks in your tent (Conservatives) that are totally opposed to ANY path to citizenship AND want to deport “Dreamers” also.

            THere is no compromise proposal from Conservatives because Conservatives themselves cannot agree on a path.

            How and why Hispanics, many of whom probably have relatives wanting to emigrate -actually support Conservatives and their hard-right wing is beyond me.

            The GOP is essentially hostage to their hard right wing.

            Anyone in the GOP that proposes a compromise gets hammered by the hard right. Look at who Trump had in charge – Stephen Miller so most Trumpers are at all in favor of compromise – just deport.

          3. tmtfairfax Avatar

            Why a path to citizenship, except for the Dreamers? Giving lawbreakers a reward sends a message to others to do the same thing. Do you really think the Democrats will enforce an immigration law that prevents illegal immigrants from staying when the President wants to do catch and release? A path to citizenship, as opposed to a permanent right to live in the United States, is like telling the guy who steals your car that you just put him in your Will.

          4. LarrytheG Avatar

            I think there DOES NEED TO BE a path to citizenship – YES – and that used to be a fairly standard position of most GOP and Conservatives not that long ago.

            And there are a LOT of DEMs who are OPPOSED to unscrupulous employers preying on the undocumented.

            Canada has a very effective Guest Worker program and they do BOOT those who are truly illegals.

            We should do this but again the problem is in your tent , TMT – there are folks who will oppose any/all of this because they oppose immigration in general.

            You guys evade the issue by trying to distract to the Dems. The Dems don’t have hard no-compromise positions – they’re willing to find middle ground but much of the right these days wants none of it.

            That’s the basic problem, not the DEms.

  4. Stephen Haner Avatar
    Stephen Haner

    Let’s see what actually happens. Polls are, in the end, just models. All models are wrong. Some models are useful. Four weeks is a loooooonnngggg time in a campaign. But with so much early voting locking in the partisans, the remaining “persuadables” will really dominate the election day vote.

  5. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    Dems meander, GOP goosesteps.

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