The Party Realignment Accelerates

by James A. Bacon

Brandon Jarvis, author of the Virginia Political Newsletter, sums up the latest Emerson College/Nexstar Media poll of the Virginia gubernatorial election. Democrat Terry McAuliffe leads Republican Glenn Youngkin by one percentage point, with two percentage points undecided. Yes, it’s a tight race, but the demographic breakdown is what’s most interesting.

McAuliffe leads with women 51% to 45%, while Youngkin leads with men 50% to 46%. McAuliffe also leads among Black voters (72% to 25%), while Youngkin leads among White voters (53% to 45%) and Hispanic voters (55% to 45%).

Wait, what? Youngkin garners 25% support from Blacks? He gets 55%, an outright majority, among Hispanics? But his lead among White voters has shriveled. When was the last time a Republican candidate got such numbers?

It looks like a major political realignment is going on. Despite Democrats’ fervent efforts to portray Republicans as the party of racists, it is apparent that a lot of minorities are not buying the message.

What is the new fault line in Virginia politics? I’ll have more to say about that tomorrow.