Tag Archives: Coronavirus

Northam Declares State of Emergency

Posted on March 13, 2020 by | 7 comments

Photo credit: Patch (McLean)

by DJ Rippert

Danger! Danger! Yesterday, Governor Ralph Northam declared that the Old Dominion was in a state of emergency due to the Coronavirus. Northam exercised these emergency powers five days after the first Coronavirus case was confirmed in the state. The online Patch newspaper from McLean reports that “a statement from the governor says the declaration gives the state flexibility to east [SIC] regulatory requirements and procurement rules, continue federal and multi-state coordination and continue access to critical services.” Northam also announced plans for state employees to work from home.

Northam’s declaration of emergency was considerably slower than in many other states. In Maryland, for example, Republican Governor Larry Hogan declared a state of emergency on the same day that the first cases of Coronavirus were confirmed. Yesterday, Maryland detected the first case of Coronavirus caused by community spread. Continue reading →

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Posted in General Assembly, Governance, Health Care

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More Bad News on Coronavirus

Posted on March 12, 2020 by | 15 comments

All I need is the air that I breathe. Recent research indicates that the coronavirus can live in air for 3 hours post aerosolization. The Hill reports that, “A study awaiting peer review from scientists at Princeton University, the University of California-Los Angeles and the National Institutes of Health (NIH) posted online Wednesday indicated that the COVID-19 virus could remain viable in the air up to 3 hours post aerosolization, while remaining alive on plastic and other surfaces for up to three days.” Previous media reports maintained that the Coronavirus required direct human contact in order to be transmitted. To be clear, this research has not been peer reviewed. However, public policy decisions would seem to be impacted if the Coronavirus can survive for hours suspended in air.

Overstaying your welcome. Researchers have evidence that people infected with the Coronavirus will remain infectious longer than previously believed. The Hill reports on a study by The Lancet, a British medical journal, indicating that people suffering from COVID-19 may be able to spread the disease for up to 37 days. If true, this finding calls into question the previously held expert opinion that recommended an isolation period of 14 days after infection.

Cancel culture. Cancellations of anything and almost everything continue to pile up. Examples include Ireland closing its schools and colleges, the NCAA Men’s National Basketball Tournament being held without fans in the audience, Italy closing almost all shops (other than grocery stores and pharmacies) and the NBA suspending its season starting today.

Implications for Virginia. Virginia’s response to the COVID-19 breakout remains sporadic at best. Continue reading →

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Posted in Disasters and disaster preparedness, General Assembly, Governance, Health Care, Planning

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Another Critical Coronavirus Graph

Posted on March 11, 2020 by | 38 comments

By DJ Rippert

Timing. As Jim Bacon wrote, “Now comes COVID-19. Everyone is in a blind panic. The concern may be overwrought, whipped up by the media. Or maybe things could get worse than anyone could imagine. Nobody knows. Uncertainty reigns.” Jim is right. Uncertainty does reign. But what are the costs of indecision if things do get worse than anybody can imagine? The graph at the left qualitatively describes how early action can change the shape of the infection curve and avoid a peak that overwhelms our health care system. Do Virginia’s leaders understand this?

Continue reading →

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Posted in Governance, Health Care, Regulation

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A Critical Coronavirus Graph

Posted on March 10, 2020 by | 22 comments

By DJ Rippert

OK, Boomer. A study conducted last month from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention provides statistics about the lethality of COVID-19.  Those statistics were analyzed by Business Insider.  You can see those statistics in the graph on the left. Younger people have a one in 10,000 (0.01%) chance of dying from the flu and a one in 500 (0.2%) chance of dying from COVID-19. So, COVID-19 is 20 times more lethal for a 15 year old than the flu. That mortality rate rises quickly as the victims get older. Between one and two 55 year olds out of 100 who contract COVID-19 will die of the disease. That’s 22 times the mortality rate of the flu. However, the real jump occurs in those who are 60 and above. Almost 15% of those aged 80+ will die if they contract the coronavirus.

Old Dominion. The average age of a Virginia resident is 38.1 years. There are 142,300 Virginians over the age of 80, 518,900 between 70 and 79 and 934,400 between 60 and 69. That’s 1,595,600 Virginians (19% of the population) with more than a 3.5% chance of dying if they develop COVID-19.

Hysteria? There is no vaccine against COVID-19. There is no cure. The only way for a 60+ year old Virginian to avoid a 3.6% – 14.8% chance of dying is to avoid the disease. The real odds of dying are the infection rate multiplied by the mortality rate. But once you contract the disease you are far more likely to die than if you contracted the flu. Is there any activity on Earth that a rational person would undertake with a 3.6% – 14.8% chance of dying? For comparison purposes an American sent to fight in Vietnam had about a 0.5% chance of dying. Given those odds, is it really “hysteria” to cancel fan participation at sporting events or to insist that people in contact with the public wear gloves? Our only defense is containment and containment comes with a fair amount of inconvenience. What is the alternative? Hope, as they say, is not a strategy.

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Posted in Demographics, Disasters and disaster preparedness, Health Care, Planning

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Running the Numbers on Coronavirus in America

Posted on March 7, 2020 by | 38 comments

Health care workers in protective suits, Wuhan China. Photo credit: China Daily / Reuters

By DJ Rippert

Sprichst du panik? Liz Specht is an biologist and engineer. She is currently the Associate Director of Science and Technology at The Good Food Institute. On Friday Dr. Specht (who holds a Ph.D. from UCSD) posted a long series of tweets regarding the spread of Coronavirus and the limitations of America’s healthcare system. You can read her tweets here.

Dr. Specht is vitally concerned about COVID-19 and the supply of hospital beds and protective masks in the U.S. She calculates that by May 8 all the hospital beds in the U.S. will be filled. That’s just over two months from now. She further believes that America’s low inventory of N-95 and surgical masks required for healthcare workers will only make matters worse. As those tending to COVID19 patients get sick we may run out of healthcare workers as well as hospital beds.

This may differentially impact Virginia. As Bacon’s Rebellion guest commentator James C Sherlock noted, Virginia has a shortage of docs and nurses. In addition, experience in Italy shows that up to 10% of cases which tested positive required mechanical ventilators as part of the treatment. Whether Virginia’s very questionable COPN practices have held down the number of hospital beds and / or mechanical ventilators is an open question. Meanwhile, as Jim Bacon notes, our state government’s reaction to COVID-19 is somewhere between “just trust us” and “what, me worry?”

Very important note — Dr. Specht is a trained biologist who certainly holds some strong opinions as to the public health severity of COVID-19 in the United States. However, she is not an epidemiologist. Other equally expert people, including some epidemiologists, do not share her pessimism. The crux of Specht’s argument is that the number of Coronavirus cases will double every six days. I have no idea whether Dr. Specht will be proven right or wrong on that count. I do know that if she is right, Virginia is in a world of trouble. Continue reading →

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Posted in Disasters and disaster preparedness, Health Care

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