Post Poll Shows Kilgore at 51

Today’s Washington Post is first out of the box with a post Labor Day poll and it shows Jerry Kilgore up by 7, with 51 percent, among likely voters. When all the registered voters they talked to (self-reported) are included the lead was 4, with Kilgore at 45 and Tim Kaine at 41. Potts was at 4-5 percent in both samples. You have to do a bit of digging to find that 51 percent number, because Shear concentrates on the smaller 45-41 lead among “all” registered voters. Some of us kind of doubt there will be a 100 percent turnout, Mike. Not everyone who tells a pollster they are registered really is.

Among the most engaged likely voters the “undecided” is down to 2 percent, leaving little room for Kaine or Potts to grow without taking votes away from Kilgore or each other. Strap on your body armor — here come the attacks.

The Post also included a summary of the results, which is where you can find the 51 percent figure in question 4. It does not report any of the demographics on its sample or the crosstabs. In the past the Post has weighted parts of its sample to force the demographics to fit what it expects the electorate to look like on Election Day. But it would be interesting to see just what the breakdown is among the various voting blocks.

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  1. Not Larry Sabato Avatar
    Not Larry Sabato

    Steve, every pollster changes results based on demographics.

  2. Steve Haner Avatar
    Steve Haner

    I don’t think that is true of all the media polls. Whatver. I’ve been off the front line for years. The point is, show me the crosstabs so I can examine those assumptions. Don’t tell me in the news story that Kilgore is doing well with certain groups, but fail to provide the actual numbers.

  3. Not Larry Sabato Avatar
    Not Larry Sabato


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