Neck And Neck And Near the Wire.

I’ll pass on any close commentary on the most recent Rasmussen Poll. I’ll read it more closely with the rest of you. The comfortable lead Kilgore showed in a recent Washington Post poll (of the most likely voters) has yet to be confirmed in any other published poll. Mason Dixon will be out again, soon.

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  1. Anonymous Avatar

    It’s a dead heat. The October debate will liklely decide the election.

    We have all asked ourselves, why would Kaine debate Potts? I guess there is a method to his madness – he is simply refining his message and getting used to getting it across in a debate setting. It’s no different than a boxer prepping for a championship match.

    If this was a boxing match Kilgore is the equivalent of Mike Tyson. He hits the speed bag like a champ and looks good sparring but in reality he can’t go past three rounds.

    Kaine will win the debate and the election because he is in better shape.

  2. Anonymous Avatar

    How will Kaine reward Potts for spoiling Kilgore’s chances? How about Secretary of Education? Remember, you saw it here first!

  3. Anonymous Avatar

    Anon 9:53-

    the key thing you overlook is that no one except for the folks who are truly junkies about this stuff will watch the debate. And they all already know who they are going to vote for.

    It will be the absolutely lowest rated show in that slot. “Let’s see I can watch the end of the afternoon NFL game, the Simpsons or 60 Minutes (depending which network has the late game), or anything else on my 125 channel cable system. I could also go to church or do anything else constructive with my time. Instead, I think I’ll watch a couple of white guy politicians bicker and not answer the questions they are asked.” If it wasn’t for the deliciously attractive Larry Sabato with his porn star mustache, no one would watch at all.

    Tv will decided this thing, but it will be the nasty ads over then next month, not the debate.

  4. Anonymous Avatar

    Potts isn’t spoiling anything. I don’t see any evidence that he’s really drawing away real votes for Kilgore.

    The method to Kaine’s madness is simply that he’ll take all comers. This isn’t just about debates.

    Compare Kaine at events to Kilgore. When Kaine was here in VA Beach last, I saw him walking around by himself, buying his own coffee, talking to everybody, taking questions right off the street from random folks. Kilgore, on the other hand, either pulls in and out of everywhere in a black SUV with the window cracked or is surrounded by staff at all times to screen out anything other than handshakes and thumbs up.

    To be fair, Kaine cannot win without finding crossover votes, and Kilgore can just ride the base to a win. But it does explain the difference in debate style.

  5. Anonymous Avatar

    This is a pretty big shift in this poll and its methodology (Kilgore’s comfortable lead has entirely evaporated mostly based on movement by Kaine), though a big shift is common the final month when everyone actually starts paying real attention.

    Potts clearly isn’t going anywhere. I wonder what wacky last ditch effort he’ll try? He has to know that to have any chance of competing, he now has to yank votes away from a candidate (and then make a bid for them himself). I wonder how he’ll try to do that? Pot banging won’t do it.

  6. Anonymous Avatar

    With Creigh Deeds picking up the NRA endorsement and essentially a win for the AG spot, I wonder what impact it’ll have on the Governor’s race.

  7. Anonymous Avatar

    Deeds gains make up for Leslie’s losses. Leslie is a drag on the Democrat’s ticket. Imagine if Russell was running in that slot today? That would have been a strong ticket for the dems statewide.

  8. Steve Haner Avatar
    Steve Haner

    What is the advice they gave Leo on West Wing? Don’t accept the premise in the question? Don’t accept the premise behind the previous two posts. The NRA endorsement was certainly a good thing for Creigh Deeds, but Bob McDonnell has a consistent A/A- ranking with NRA and many of its members know that. Bob’s recent endorsement from the FOP is of equally significant value. Both guys wanted both endorsements and they split them down the middle.

    I know that hunting and fishing constitutional amendment was a brilliant piece of political theater on Deed’s part, but in a Dillon Rule state like Virginia it was about as necessary as a constitutional amendment on sunrise.

  9. Anonymous Avatar

    Al of this gets us back to point A. What is the job of the Atty General and who has the best skills for it?

    The AG is essentially an elected department head in state government. They don’t get to write law or make policy. They do get to advise and they do get the represent the state in court. So, which of the candidates running has the best administrative skills? Who will be able to hire, retain, and recruit the best lawyers possible? Who has enough of a brain to avoid silly political fights and protect the taxpayers’ money from frivilous lawsuits? And who will save us the most money by NOT going on issue hunting initiatives to set up a run for the Governor’s office in four years? In other words, which of these two wants to be an attorney general and not a gubernatorial candidate in training?

  10. Steve Haner Avatar
    Steve Haner

    As to your last question, which one wouldn’t be interested in running for governor, I’d suspect…neither.

    It is very true that the campaign for the job has little to do with the job. Both Creigh and Bob are good legislators, and seem to be good lawyers. Bob is probably better prepared according to his experience to manage a law firm of that size, with a good background in business, the military and practice in a larger firm than Creigh. Philosophy does matter quite a bit, and I prefer Bob’s conservatism in that job, although the AG is bound by the law and his or her duty to the client (which despite the rhetoric is NOT “the people” but the state government.) You are electing in effect a general counsel for a giant Fortune 50 corporation, who has to work well with the CEO (the guv) and the Board of Directors (the GA).

  11. true country boy Avatar
    true country boy

    I don’t usually post on these but I have to correct a misstatement by Steve.

    The hunting and fishing amendment was plainly not “theater.” Fact is, Vic Thomas (the godfather of all Virginia pro-sportsmen legislators) looked to Creigh Deeds to get that passed. McDonnell opposed it, and I assume it is not because his law firm represents PETA, as some have suggested, but he never really gave a credible answer.

  12. Steve Haner Avatar
    Steve Haner

    You know, “true country boy,” that dog won’t hunt. The “your law firm represented PETA” canard was pulled on Mark Earley as well, and since Mark and Bob worked for different law firms, it is kind of hard to sell a second time. But you can say anything behind anonymity, can’t you?

    And Vic Thomas didn’t need to turn to anybody to get a bill passed. He was a legislative star long before Creigh came to Richmond. If Vic handed it off it was to someone with their eye on a … future election. I didn’t deny it was GOOD political theater.

  13. SoccerMoms Avatar

    I predict that Kilgore’s attack ads on Kaine concerning Richmond Public Schools are going to backfire. By attacking Kaine and using data from 10 years ago, Kilgore opens himself to “blow-back” concerning where he was and what he was doing from 1994-1996 as George Allen’s Secretary of Public Safety.

    The whole mess surrounding Juvenile Detention Centers — can anybody say “BEAUMONT” — is a huge Pandora’s Box that Kilgore’s people did not realize they were opening when they tried to kick Kaine around on the schools.

    At least Kaine can legitimately claim that he helped create infrastructure as Mayor in Richmond and as Lt. Gov. continued to work for improvement not only in Richmond, but across the Commonwealth.

    George Allen may have started the SOL ball rolling, but Warner and Kaine have implemented it and brought significant progress to public education in Virginia.

    Kilgore can make no similar claim about anything he did as Secretary of Public Safety.

  14. true country boy Avatar
    true country boy

    Steve, I had to look up “canard” (it means “goose” in French) but I think I am smart enough to know that this means McDonnell’s law firm represents PETA:

    “People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals is represented by David Neil Ventker of Huff, Poole & Mahoney in Virginia Beach, Va”

    Here is the link:

    Am I wrong?

  15. Anonymous Avatar

    Both Creigh and Bob are 10 times better for the position than Kilgore was. What a waste of… 3 years.

  16. Anonymous Avatar

    This is what’s bizarre.

    This gov. election comes down to one thing and one thing only:

    Kilgore’s voice.

    You guys can talk about the issues from here until eternity, but when Northern Virginians hear Kilgore whining at that ’03 debate, they’re going to laugh all the way to the polls.

    And THAT is THAT.

  17. Steve Haner Avatar
    Steve Haner

    Okay Country Boy, I bit and went to the web link. For the benefit of the other three people still watching this string:

    1) The case involves some cybersquatters wrestling with the organzation over the use of the web address. I suspect even the NRA would concede PETA has rights to protect itself against defamation and unfair use of its trade name.

    2)It would be a bit more accurate to say one of Bob’s partners or a lawyer in his firm represents PETA, but in a traditional firm setting such a situation does extend to the partners. It is however VERY different than saying, for example, Huff Poole is the general counsel for the organization.

    3)What would you say about a potential attorney general who asked his partners to refuse a legitimate case because the plaintiff was controversial and unpopular?

    4) Bob’s partner WON the case at the federal district level.

    Your implication that case influenced Bob’s position (which I don’t even know) on the hunting amendment remains a “canard.” It is also “guilt by association” and “politics as usual.”

  18. Hitting Bob on PETA is dumb.

    Hitting Bob on being a gun rationer is legit.

  19. Anonymous Avatar

    “Kilgore’s voice.”

    Is it Mr. Garrison or Mr. Mackey that people think he sounds like: they can never seem to make up their minds. M’kay!

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