Looks Like Tim Kaine Weather

All those negative campaigns ads may have disgusted the electorate — but they didn’t dissuade people from heading to the polls today in large numbers. There was a steady stream of people running through the voting booths in Henrico County’s Tuckahoe precinct around 9 a.m. this morning. I asked one of the volunteers who checked off the voting rolls how the numbers were running.

“We can hardly breathe,” she said.

“It’s like a presidential election,” said another.

Henrico County is reliably Republican, which will help Jerry Kilgore locally, but high turn-around across the state, according to the conventional wisdom, will help Tim Kaine.

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25 responses to “Looks Like Tim Kaine Weather”

  1. Anonymous Avatar

    Short story – turnout in the Roanoke suburbs was high this morning and turnout in Roanoke City precincts was low.

    Did the R’s get their base out better than the D’s?

  2. At 10 am, I was the 82nd voter at my precinct in Richmond’s fifth ward.

    Weather is good, but enough?

    See, Reading the Cross Tabs

  3. Ranger03 Avatar

    That would follow the expectation, but does anyone have NOVA numbers? Williamsburg had 2% turnout in the first hour.

  4. Riley, Not O'Reilly Avatar
    Riley, Not O’Reilly

    Reports from up here in NOVA are that it is low turnout, especially in Arlington and Fairfax.

  5. Anonymous Avatar

    I just came from NOVA and it is high turnout. Its not looking pretty.

  6. Anonymous Avatar

    You can’t say Henrico is reliably Republican anymore. George Allen just carried it in 2000, Mark Warner won it in 2001. However, Tuckahoe precinct is reliably Republican. A large turnout there (it is one of Henrico’s largest) is only good for Kilgore.

  7. Anonymous Avatar

    I am hearing that turnout is low everywhere and also high everywhere. This can’t be good for Jerry Kilgore/Tim Kaine!

  8. In Richmond, I’ve been told that precinct 503 on the Northside (Tim’s neighborhood) was at 302 voters at 9:30am compared to 677 voters in 2001.

  9. Anonymous Avatar

    I have friends in the Kilgore campaign who are saying that exit polls are looking very bad. It is early, but very bad.

  10. Anonymous Avatar

    I have a friend in reality who is saying that there aren’t any exit polls being done in this race and your friend is crazy.

  11. Anonymous Avatar

    Eek! Any idea when we will know the ACTUAL results? I voted in Arlington today. There were few people, but I did go at 11 am to avoid the morning rush.

  12. Anonymous Avatar

    I am hearing no statewide exit polls as well — from either campaign. No info on whether Dr Larry Sabato or some independent outfit is, however.

  13. Anonymous Avatar

    You must really know what you are talking about to call my friend a liar (whom I’m sure you have never met), or you are coming to the conclusion that your man is going to lose.

  14. Anonymous Avatar

    It is clear no one on this string has any real info, me included. I did talk to a Democratic operative watching one Peninsula House race very closely who says turnout is close to the 2001 level, maybe a little down, and that is a contested House race (guess which one.) His statewide projection is 1-2 percent lower than 2001. But in about 5 hours we’ll actually know some of this stuff.

    I haven’t heard of any real exit polls, certainly not by the news media (it is very expensive.) What the campaigns all have is projections based on the turnouts in key sample precincts, and where the R’s are not working outside the polls, they do have observers inside the polls checking off names. If more known D’s are showing up than known R’s, they can tell that from those 10 am and early PM samples. The perfect weather means the voting patterns (AM vs.PM) will stick to form. SDH

  15. Jeremy Hinton Avatar
    Jeremy Hinton

    I was voter 155 around 10:30 this morning, Sedgefield precent of Newport News (Glen Oder’s territory). I’ll leave interpreatation of that to the eggheads :).

  16. Short Pump Shorty Avatar
    Short Pump Shorty

    I was one of those inside GOP workers checking off names. We were to keep a running tally and report in at 10AM and other intervals. While everyone bemoans the lack of enthusiasm, the negativity, etc., this checking off names is a great back-to-basics technique. I did this for Dalton in ’77. I don’t know if the sentiment is there today, but the mechanics are in place for the GOP to maximize its vote and potentially outperform the public opinion polls.

    As for exit polls, etc., take no offense, but I call this time of day every year the time for “sharing ignorance.” We used to call each other on the phone. Now we just blog.

  17. Anonymous Avatar

    I don’t usually check blogs (I am employed and have otherwise useful things to do) but on a whim, I checked this one.

    Wow! Geeks on Parade!

  18. Anonymous Avatar

    Apparantly not useful enough to visit the site and leave derogatory comments (esteem issues). Thanks for the contribution. Are you even aware of today’s election?

  19. Anonymous Avatar

    Geeks on parade? I’m not insulted. Sharing ignorance? I’ll buy that. One reason I’ve always liked working outside the polls on election day is to just get the day done.

    Yes, the potential mechanics for good vote production are there. But I just got another “robocall” GOTV reminder and my wife, daughter and I all voted early so it is clear they are just phoning (and spending money) blindly. SDH

  20. Got my numbers jumbled in my last post…. there were 254 votes cast in the 302nd precinct as of 9:30am. In 2001 there were a total of 677 votes cast in the precinct.

  21. Ray Hyde Avatar

    So how much longer before someone calls this for Kilgore?

  22. Anonymous Avatar

    Kaine in a landslide

  23. Anonymous Avatar

    Katherine Waddell has won in the 68th!!!!

  24. Anonymous Avatar

    Let us not let Jim Bacon off for free. Remember this quote:

    “Henrico County is reliably Republican, which will help Jerry Kilgore locally”


  25. Jim Bacon Avatar

    Anonymous 9:30 a.m. Thanks for keeping me humble. My wife usually does a pretty good job of it, but she can always use some help.

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