by James A. Bacon
The good news for Virginians from late last week is that Republicans and Democrats in the Senate Finance Committee broke their deadlock over the state budget. The bad news is… Senate Republicans and Democrats broke their deadlock. The only way to paper over the divide between the two parties, of course, was to spread around more pork.
Funding for transportation and schools lay at the heart of the budgetary disagreement between the Rs and Ds. On the transportation front, the Dems held out for a new deal that would delay implementation of tolls on the Midtown and Downtown tunnels linking Norfolk and Portsmouth, and and provide $300 million extra to finance the Rail-to-Dulles project. The GOP caved. Assuming the full Senate passes the agreement brokered in committee — it is scheduled to vote this afternoon — the budget then will be await reconciliation with the House of Delegates version, which includes none of those provisions.
The first measure noted above would ask the state to re-open negotiations with Elizabeth River Crossings to “develop a strategy” to delay the imposition of tolls on Hampton Roadsters until 2014. That is entirely reasonable, as it is grotesquely unfair to ask commuters to pay for a facility that has not yet been built.
The second measure would add $300 million more in state contributions for the Rail-to-Dulles project on top of $150 million already promised to help buy down toll increases on Dulles Roll Road users, the main piggy bank for Phase 2. Thus, the Senate would blindly dump nearly a half billion dollars into the project, no strings attached.
Meanwhile, Gov. Bob McDonnell has yet to sign the Comstock bill, which would nix state funds for the heavy rail project if open-shop (non-union) companies are discriminated against in the Phase 2 construction. The governor’s inaction has prompted speculation that he has backed off from his insistence that the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority (MWAA), which is managing the Rail-to-Dulles construction, reverse its preference treatment of union Project Labor Agreements.
Adding to the jury-rigged nature of the Rail-to-Dulles bail-out, the Senate budget would borrow the extra $300 million and use the funds to defray the debt service on the Dulles Toll Road Revenue Bonds.
But the worst of it is that so many questions about the Metro Silver Line project to Dulles airport still fester.
- No one yet knows how much Phase 2 will cost. While Phase 1 is running close to budget, the Project Labor Agreement issue creates a huge uncertainty for Phase 2, which is estimated at $2.8 billion. MWAA’s preferential policy may discourage non-union companies from submitting bids, increasing the likelihood that the winning bid will exceed $2.8 billion.
- No one has firm numbers on how much it will cost Loudoun and Fairfax counties to subsidize the operation of the Silver Line on a year-to-year basis. Official estimates suggest the deficits could run $40 million to $75 million annually, but that could be low if the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA), which will run the Silver line once it’s built, maintains its low-fare structure.
- Long-term, ridership could be considerably lower than assumed. The recession and impending slowdown in federal government spending have reduced population growth projections for Loudoun and Fairfax, and Loudoun has downzoned much of its land, effectively capping population growth there in any case.
- WMATA remains a financial cripple. The organization has projected 10-year capital replacement costs of $13.3 billion, including $6.5 billion for which no source has been identified. Will Fairfax, Loudoun and the state of Virginia end up assuming a portion of that liability? Or will MWATA simply let service deteriorate? No one knows.
- Who will pay for the $3 billion in transportation improvements required to serve the anticipated traffic growth in Tysons Corner resulting from the increased density granted landowners there? The upzoning was justified on the grounds that, combined with heavy rail access, landowners would have the incentive to transform Tysons into a more walkable, mixed-use better functioning urban district.
Virginia’s political class lurches from decision point to decision point, patching up the current crisis while failing to consider entirely foreseeable problems down the road. Taxpayers and toll road users are gouged while landowners, unions, project contractors and other private interests are enriched. Citizens know they are getting hosed but the process is so opaque, accountability so diffused and the Mainstream Media so neutered that they don’t understand how.
Note: This post has been edited to reflect more up-to-date information provided by readers.
