July Mason Dixon and Other 20-20 Hindsight

Sorry: One more post on the election. Last week both of the campaigns mentioned the July Mason-Dixon poll showing Kaine up by one as a turning point in the campaign. Just for giggles here is the long string of comments it produced on this blog at the time. We should all read it and reflect on the genius or foolishness we displayed (Day was the genius, of course). If any of you want to come out from behind the “anonymous” tag, now’s your chance. Did the blog echo chamber add to its impact?

Reviewing some of my own comments on polls this cycle one of my major screwups was reading the final Washington Post poll. Once they posted the full results I read it as a sample error that was too Democratic. What is showed, and I’m sure smarter folks than me saw, was an increased level of Democratic intensity among likely voters (and/or a drop off of intensity among Republicans, who were getting less and less likely to vote.) The tip off — the higher percentage of respondents listed as “pro-choice” than in the earlier poll. I read that as a sign the poll was in error, but in reality it was an indicator of who was planning to come to vote and who was scheduling a dental appointment on that day.

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5 responses to “July Mason Dixon and Other 20-20 Hindsight”

  1. James Atticus Bowden Avatar
    James Atticus Bowden

    Steve: IMHO, my words from Aug still hold up. My personal guestimate on election day was screwed up – I was off by 4 points total (or a two point shift from Jerry to Tim). The post was a nice mirror to our words.

  2. Barnie Day Avatar

    Steve, thanks, but it wasn’t me. My cat, Sammy, was ghosting for me on that one.

  3. Steve Haner Avatar
    Steve Haner

    Well, Sammy should send a bill to the Kaine campaign or get a cabinet seat (Secretary of Mouse Control). I do think your post help multiply the impact of the poll.

  4. Rtwng Extrmst Avatar
    Rtwng Extrmst

    FYI, I was the anon posting a number of the comments about Potts’ reason for being in the race to get Kilgore. While he did not fair well at 2%, I believe he was one of the determining factors against Kilgore. His being the “attack dog” for Kaine was supported in the MSM and it hurt Kilgore. Kilgore had no independent to do his attacking, and therefore he had to do it himself. This also worked against Kaine. We will see yet whether Kaine rewards Potts for his due service to his campaign.

  5. Rtwng Extrmst Avatar
    Rtwng Extrmst

    “This also worked against Kaine.”

    Sorry that was meant to read “This also worked against Kilgore.”

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