by James A. Bacon
Has the wave of illegal immigration into the United States crested? Is the flood of undocumented workers one of those problems that, if you wait long enough, just fades away? Michael Barone with the Washington Examiner makes a fascinating case that maybe, just maybe, this contentious matter has run its course.
Consider… The great American job machine is sputtering, which lessens demand for unskilled labor from across the border. Even if it picks back up, spreading use of the federal e-Verify system is cutting down on the hiring of undocumented workers. Meanwhile, the birth rate in Mexico has fallen from seven children per woman on average in 1971 to two in 2010, and living standards in Mexico are rapidly improving. Both trends tend to dry up supply.
Another factor, not noted in Barone’s article, is the increasing cost associated with crossing the Mexico-U.S. border. As violent criminal syndicates take over the business of smuggling workers across the border, Mexicans and Central Americans passing through Mexico run increasing risk of being robbed, kidnapped, extorted or even killed. The criminals create a fear factor that the U.S. Border Patrol never could.
It is entirely possible that more illegals are leaving the U.S. than entering it. The Pew Hispanic Center estimates the 2010 illegal population at 11.2 million, down from 12 million at the peak in 2007.
Legal Hispanic migration to the U.S. undoubtedly will continue, and that’s just fine. Hopefully, the declining number of illegals will ease the financial strain on schools, health care facilities and social services. Even better, a shifting supply-and-demand nexus for labor will open up more job opportunities, and perhaps even higher wages, for unskilled Americans.
