On the A QUESTION FOR VDOT string Groveton said:
“Long recession / depression?
“Do any of you guys watch any of the stock market indices?
“All US stock indices have been surging since March. They have been rocking for 6 ½ months.”
EMR thought that it was uniformly agreed that stock and commodity markets were gambling venues, NOT indicators of economic health or investment intelligence.
“Do you guys really see a long recession / depression? If so, we can make a fortune right now. And I mean a real fortune.”
IT is not about making money, IT is about achieving a sustainable trajectory for civilization.
“Any chance this is a real recovery? You know … like the last 35 recessions and recoveries. Or, is this really The Great Depression II?”
Of course there is a ‘chance’ of a short term recovery – that is Option One of the three scenarios spelled out in the earlier post.
The point of the “QUESTION FOR VDOT” post was that what ever happens, Large, Private vehicles and the roadway systems to support Autocentric settlement patterns are dinosaurs. Those who do not yet understand this probably think the Dow going over 10,000 is a good thing.
The larger point is that NO ‘recovery’ can be sustained so long as ‘the REAL fundamentals’ – settlement patterns, per capita consumption, wealth distribution, public and private debt, population and most key resources that support human life (potable water, top soil, total energy, marine food chains, mission critical elements, etc.), ALL have unsustainable trajectories.
Of the three scenarios outlined in the earlier post, EMR would bet on the “Modest Recovery” model but if not that, then The Long Depression model is more likely than The Great Depression model. This is because at the end of The Great Depression there were still abundant key resources available AND there was a population that was willing to work as opposed to one that now believes that they are owed a consumptive life style (and unsustainable individual ‘freedoms’) and that technological miracles will solve any problems that pandering political Clans cannot patch over until after the next election.
Was it not Groveton himself that pointed out that during The Great Depression there were four stock market rallies? EMR’s maternal grandfather lost ‘a fortune’ in every on of those ‘panic booms.’
Neither irrational exuberance nor short selling will solve any known problem for society.
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