COVID’s Baaaaack! (Not Really)

by James A. Bacon

July is the hottest month of the year in Virginia, and Virginia public health officials are warning that a tendency for people to seek cooler temperatures indoors will boost their exposure to the COVID-19 virus.

“We went through a period where we really saw great decline,” Heather Harmon-Sloan, chief of the Virginia Department of Health’s COVID-19 unit, told WRIC-TV. “And now, we’re starting to see those diagnosed cases of COVID-19 start to creep back up slowly.”

Public health officials don’t sound terribly worried, though, and you shouldn’t be either. The uptick in COVID cases is what you might call a dead cat bounce. The rate of COVID incidence in the population, according to the state’s COVID tracker, is less than one in 100,000, way down from this winter.

And infections and deaths this winter were waaaaay down since the peak of the COVID epidemic, as can be seen in this graph showing Virginia COVID-related mortality.

Obviously, the numbers for infections and hospitalizations are much higher than the mortality numbers showed here. But the virus is less deadly and the healthcare sector much better at treating it than early in the epidemic.

Indeed, we may be in a zone where the side effects of COVID vaccinations pose a greater risk than the virus itself. Sadly, the Virginia Health Department doesn’t track vaccination side effects, so state-level data won’t help us draw a firm conclusion.

For the perennial worry warts out there, here’s another epidemiological question: What are the comparative risks of staying outdoors on the 4th of July and getting heat stroke versus staying inside and contracting COVID?

Oh, no!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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9 responses to “COVID’s Baaaaack! (Not Really)”

  1. Lefty665 Avatar
    Lefty665

    For those of us with other health issues covid is still an issue, a death threat really, and the vaccines lessening of symptoms if infected is worth the risk of side effects. Likewise being outside greatly attenuates the likelihood of catching it, so that beats the risk of heat stroke and provides opportunities to socialize and celebrate Independence.

    For everyone else, go for it, but don't set your fireworks off indoors, that's a risk too.:)

    1. Eric the half a troll Avatar
      Eric the half a troll

      My brother who is immune-compromised and his wife (recovering from lung cancer) said yesterday that they have had 8 vaccines rounds and take Covid very seriously. I am not as worried but will likely re-boost when I am due.

      Have a friend (Kennedy supporter) who told me to watch out for the tetanus vaccine… smh… JAB should stop flirting with the anti-vax crowd.

  2. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    ah, but the grand question is, “Will it SARS-1, or mutate and come back, really come back?”

  3. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    One of the interesting things about vaccines is how records are kept or not.

    Is there one place you can go to that lists all the shots you have received, when, where, specifics about the vaccine itself?

    How many folks have a complete list of all the vaccines they have received?

    When you receive a vaccine, is there a law that requires the provider to provide any entity with that data?

    1. Stephen Haner Avatar
      Stephen Haner

      You have a record at the Virginia Department of Health, probably. I've seen mine and it has more than just the Covid jabs, but includes flu shots, pneumonia, etc. If you get the shots at CVS, for example, I'm pretty sure it gets to VDH and recorded. At your GP's I think, too. A complete list back to my early days? All those shots going overseas with my Dad? Long forgotten.

      My GP tests the antibody levels once a year. More than two years since the last shot they haven't moved a tick. If five shots and the natural immunity from two cases don't do it, nothing will. At this point COVID is only a danger to those truly vulnerable to just about any viral infection (and there are certainly those people.) As I wrote years ago, viral infections and heart symptoms have a well established link. Did my two COVID cases in 2022 (post vax!) lead to my heart issues in 2022 and early 2023? Probably. But it exploited existing weaknesses, didn't "cause" anything new.

    2. Stephen Haner Avatar
      Stephen Haner

      You have a record at the Virginia Department of Health, probably. I've seen mine and it has more than just the Covid jabs, but includes flu shots, pneumonia, etc. If you get the shots at CVS, for example, I'm pretty sure it gets to VDH and recorded. At your GP's I think, too. A complete list back to my early days? All those shots going overseas with my Dad? Long forgotten.

      My GP tests the antibody levels once a year. More than two years since the last shot they haven't moved a tick. If five shots and the natural immunity from two cases don't do it, nothing will. At this point COVID is only a danger to those truly vulnerable to just about any viral infection (and there are certainly those people.) As I wrote years ago, viral infections and heart symptoms have a well established link. Did my two COVID cases in 2022 (post vax!) lead to my heart issues in 2022 and early 2023? Probably. But it exploited existing weaknesses, didn't "cause" anything new. I was heading for a pacemaker already.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        I did get a list. It’s not all of them., including some done recently. When I asked for them, there was no directly online access… had to go through someone on email. So.. it’s missing older info as you say but if it was supposed to have the new ones.. there must be a significant lag period… I’m not sure there is a an immediate update capability such that a provider gets online and updates your record on the day/week of your shot.

        Interesting what you say about your own situation. So a question. Do you think others might have had similar issues and some of them did lose their lives after COVID pushed them over the edge? Sort of a dumb question I guess but with respect to the millions of deaths listed that were “due” to COVID? As opposed to deaths to people without any known pre-existing conditions? Do you think it really matters whether an newly emerging disease kills primarily those with existing conditions – IF we don’t have some kind of restrictions because even in only the healthy people go out, and some point, some of them get it and then bring it home or to work where it then infects someone who does have a condition?

        Not looking to cause an argument here. Just trying to understand the thinking. For myself, I just don’t see how you can bascially say the healthy people can go out and the compromise should not and “herd immunity” will then “work” or is the thinking that there is no way that the compromised will not get infected anyhow and it’s just the way life – and death is? Appreciate your thoughts.

      2. Eric the half a troll Avatar
        Eric the half a troll

        Given the number of elderly and pre-conditioned that were killed, it clearly poses a bigger danger than “any viral infection”.

  4. Thomas Dixon Avatar
    Thomas Dixon

    Sorry folks, but if you think Covid is the cause of your problems and not that the shots are, then you at this point are intentionally burying your heads in the sand. Maybe it's denial. The shots are destroying your immunity and put you at tremendous risk for strokes, heart attacks, advanced cancer and many more terrible things. I don't say this to be argumentative, I say it because it is true and you and your love ones will be significantly damaged if you continue to believe what the department of health is feeding you.

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