COVID-19 Update: The Data Takes a Nap

It’s the weekend, and the Virginia Department of Health’s compilation of COVID-19 statistics is subject to reporting delays, so the number of new confirmed cases and hospitalizations is likely incomplete. So, be not deceived by the low numbers. As occurred with last weekend’s data, we’ll see a huge rebound Tuesday.

Even I, as eager as I am to spot some new trend in the statistical noise, am reluctant to draw any conclusions from today’s report. But for the data junkies among you, here’s the latest re-cap for Virginia.

Total COVID-19 cases: 5,274 up 197 from the previous day
Total hospitalizations: 872, up 35 from the previous day
ICUs in use: 440, up 14
Ventilators in use: 294, up 11
Total deaths
: 141, up eleven
Total tests: 39,985, up 1,9896
% tests positive: 9.9% yesterday

My advice on a Sunday morning: Go back to bed.

Update: But wait! John Butcher is boldly going where I once went but now fear to tread: He thinks he espies a bending of the logarithmic curve! Continue reading to see his graph based on new COVID-19 cases reported to the VDH.

“The Health Dept. data may be problematic but they appear to be internally consistent, and they’re most of what we have,” John writes. “One caveat: The VHHA number of hospital patients with test results pending has dropped, suggesting that the increasing number of tests may be boosting the hospital counts and, perhaps, the case totals.”