COVID-19 Update: Plague Still Intensifying

The COVID-19 epidemic is intensifying in Virginia. Twelve more people died from the virus yesterday, bringing the statewide total 121 yesterday, according to data published this morning by the Virginia Department of Health. Meanwhile, the number of new cases, 467, hit a new daily high, and so did the number of new hospitalizations at 87.

Here are the key metrics based on VDH and Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association (VHHA) data:

Total COVID-19 cases: 4,509, up 467 from the previous day
Total hospitalizations: 772, up 87 from the previous day
ICUs in use: 457, down eight
Ventilators in use: 287, up two
Total deaths
: 121, up nine
Total tests: 35,459, up 2,433
% tests positive: 19.2%

And here are other indices crucial to understanding the spread of the epidemic, John Butcher’s calculation of the “doubling” rate for key metrics based on the past four days of data:

Confirmed cases: doubling every 6.9 days
Hospitalizations: doubling every 6.6 days
Deaths: doubling every 3.0 days

Ventilator capacity well in hand. On a side note, according to national news reports, many physicians are concluding that intubation may not be the most effective way to treat patients suffering from advanced symptoms of COVID-19. Indeed, some are saying that ventilation is the wrong prescription and can be harmful. While Virginia hospitals are still scrounging for personal protective equipment — eight reported to the VHHA that they are experiencing difficulty with their supplies — they have an ample inventory of ventilators: 2,797 versus 686 in use, a utilization rate of only 25%.

Apparently, the ventilator supply is well in hand.


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5 responses to “COVID-19 Update: Plague Still Intensifying”

  1. Nancy_Naive Avatar

    Don’t worry, the high rates of False Negative tests coming from the emergency use of unapproved assay kits will drive these charts numbers down and save lives.

    BTW, if you take the thigh bone from a KFC regular recipe meal, place it on your head, and it falls off in 15 minutes, you don’t have SARS-COV-2

    Since early February, the FDA has granted roughly two dozen emergency authorizations for clinical tests to detect the virus. The tests were developed by governments ― including the CDC and the New York state public health lab — and multiple private companies such as LabCorp, Quest Diagnostics, Roche Diagnostics and Thermo Fisher Scientific.

    Yet providers have reported rampant problems with COVID-19 tests giving false negatives, in which the virus is not detected even in an infected person.

    Few medical tests are 100% accurate. Any test can have false negatives or false positives. The problem isn’t unique to COVID-19 tests.

    “False-negative test results — tests that indicate you are not infected, when you are — seem to be uncomfortably common,” Dr. Harlan Krumholz, director of the Yale New Haven Hospital Center for Outcomes Research and Evaluation, wrote in a New York Times piece April 1. “Increasingly, and disturbingly, I hear a growing number of anecdotal stories from my fellow doctors of patients testing negative for coronavirus and then testing positive — or people who are almost certainly infected who are testing negative.”

    1. Thank you! I needed that dose of thigh-bone humor.

  2. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    The DOC update:
    25 offenders testing positive, 22 staff. This is an increase of 4 offenders and 1 staff member from yesterday’s report. That number includes 5 offenders in hospitals, no increase.

    The major development is the spread of the virus to the offender population in a fourth correctional center–Haynesville Correctional Center, near Warsay on the Northern Neck. Two inmates have tested positive in that facility.

    1. Nancy_Naive Avatar

      Yesterday, when it was 22 and 22, I must confess I raised raised an eyebrow.

  3. Good concise article from a respected source, here: Scientific American, “When Can We Lift the Coronavirus Pandemic Restrictions? Not Before Taking These Steps” — obtain it here:

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