COVID-19 Update: March 19


The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Virginia continued its upward trajectory, increasing to 94, according to data just published by the Virginia Department of Health (VDH). That represents an increase of 17 cases from the day before, which in turn had represented an increase of 10 from the previous day.

Does the “increase in the increase” suggest that COVID-19 cases now are surging at an continually accelerating rate — the nightmare scenario? That’s possible. However, it’s also possible that the numbers reflect the larger number of tests administered. The number of people tested yesterday was 645, the highest total yet. If more people are being tested, more cases of the coronavirus will be identified.

The VDH data display now includes the number of hospitalizations and fatalities, making it far more useful for analyzing trends. Hospitalizations have increased to 19, a very manageable number at this point in time. No immediate strain on Virginia hospitals. Two fatalities have been attributed to the virus. I don’t know if it’s possible to collect it or not, but one more data set would be incredibly useful as we track COVID-19 over the long term — the number of patients released from hospitals. VDH, if you’re listening, that would help us better gauge patient load compared to hospital capacity.

— JAB