COVID-19 Update: Don’t Panic!!

Graph source: John Butcher, based on Virginia Department of Health data

The number of COVID-19 confirmed new cases and hospitalizations spiked higher yesterday, based on the latest Virginia Department of Health data. New cases marked a record for Virginia at 601, while one-day hospitalizations also hit a high. But these numbers are volatile, often due to reporting delays, and yesterday’s jump was not sufficient to change the conclusion, as shown in John Butcher’s graph above, that Virginia is at or near the peak spread of the virus under the current social-distancing regime. 

In the key measure I look at to gauge the strain on the health care system, 107 COVID-19 patients were admitted to Virginia hospitals, while 159 were discharged.

A parallel data set from the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association showed little day-to-day difference in hospital utilization. The number of confirmed COVID-19 patients currently hospitalized increased modestly, from 800 to 809  the day before, while the number in ICUs  fell 27 to 400, and the number of ventilators in use declined from 238 to 224.

Here is our daily data digest:

COVID-19 spread

Total tests: 49,997, up 3,553
Total confirmed cases: 7,491, up 602 from the previous day
% tests positive: 16.9% yesterday
Total hospitalizations: 1,221, up 107 from the previous day
Total deaths: 231, up 23
Total hospital discharges: 1,110, up 159

Hospital capacity

Available beds: 5,587, up 44
Currently hospitalized for COVID-19: 
809, up nine
ICUs in use:
400, down 27
Ventilators in use: 224, down 14

— JAB