COVID-19 Update: Are We Leveling Off?

The latest data from the Virginia Department of Health, reported this morning, is consistent with the notion that the spread of the COVID-19 virus in Virginia is nearing a peak. The graph above, produced by John Butcher, does a much better job of showing the trend than any of the graphics I’ve been creating. So, as much as I love rendering infographics with kittens, puppies and babies in them, I will henceforward publish John’s graph atop this daily update.

It’s too early to say that the number of COVID-19 infections is leveling out, but it seems pretty clear that the rate of increase is no longer exponential. My main reservation is the quality of data. Results for only 1,362 tests were reported from yesterday. Why so few? That’s down from more than 2,000 tests daily last week. Is Virginia’s health system running fewer tests as time goes by? Or does this puny number reflect delays in the collection and reporting of the numbers?

Whatever the case, here is today’s roundup of the disease spread and hospital capacity from the Virginia Department of Health and the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association COVID-19 dashboards.

COVID-19 spread

Total tests: 42,763, up 1,362
Total confirmed cases: 6,171, up 424 from the previous day
% tests positive: 31.1% yesterday
Total hospitalizations: 978, up 75 from the previous day
Total deaths: 154, up six
Total hospital discharges: 721, up 264


Hospital capacity

Available beds: 5,991, up 21
Currently hospitalized: 
813, up 48
ICUs in use:
422, down six
Ventilators in use: 276, down 26

Assuming the current trends hold true, Virginia hospitals won’t come close to maxxing out their capacity for beds, ICUs or ventilators. The primary bottleneck remains the availability of testing kits and personal protective equipment.

— JAB