The latest numbers from the Virginia Department of Health are heartening. The COVID-19 epidemic in Virginia has not peaked, or come anywhere near peaking. But maybe, just maybe, the rate of acceleration is slowing. Another way to put it: It may take a bit longer than we thought for things to go all to hell.
First, let’s recapitulate today’s new numbers, published today based on yesterday’s data collection:
Total COVID-19 cases: 2,878, up 241 from the previous day
Total hospitalizations: 487, up 66 from the previous day
Total deaths: 54, up three
Total tests: 25,521, up 884
% tests positive: 27.3%
Doubling rates for key metrics (thank you, John Butcher):
Case count: 3.5 days
Hospitalizations: 3.7 days
Deaths: 4.6 days
The best news is that the number of deaths in Virginia so far (emphasis on so far) has been almost trivial compared to (a) the normal number of influenza deaths in the state and (b) the number of deaths in New York City, a municipality with roughly the same population as the state of Virginia, which now stands at 3,048. We have a long, long way to go before it gets Big Apple bad.
When John began calculating the doubling rate for key metrics (and I first published the numbers March 29), the numbers were scary: Cases doubling every 3.1 days, hospitalizations every 3.7 days, and deaths every 2.6 days. Hospitalizations are still following the same trajectory, but the rate for new cases has stretched out to 3.5 days and deaths to 4.6 days.
Now for the no-so-good news. It’s hard to know what weight to give today’s numbers. The number of tests fell to a mere 884 — down precipitously from the 2,085 tests administered the previous day and a peak of 2.547 test two days previously. The low level of testing could have biased the results for confirmed cases?
What the heck is going on? On the national level, the volume of testing is increasingly rapidly. What caused such a reversal in Virginia? Hopefully, the number is an anomaly, not a sign of dysfunction in Virginia’s fight against the virus.
— JAB
