Another Assault on Mason-Dixon’s Line

The Kilgore Camp is circulating another media poll, this one sponsored by WSLS in Roanoke, showing a 5 point lead. This one from Survey USA comes with the crosstabs, and they are instructive. In the firm’s own summary notes that the last survey with the same methodology showed a 10 point gap so Kaine has picked up a bit. It shows Kilgore with slightly less than the 60 percent of the white vote that most observers consider a bellweather for Republicans in Virginia elections, and it shows Kaine with a slight lead among self-described independents. Potts has the same 3 percent that other polls have shown, but oddly this one also gives respondents a fourth choice of “other” when there will be just three names on the ballot. By election day you’ve got to think Potts will be “other.” Looks like fodder for both camps to stuff in their artillery.


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  1. Like Steve, I agree that it’s not the lead but the internal numbers that were most interesting in the SurveyUSA poll.

    See my commentary on the poll on http://changeservant.blogspot.com.

    Excerpts:
    “Kaine has two issues to confront … he needs to move up from less than 40% of the white vote, and, at the same time, he needs to drive turnout among black voters (to Warner levels, 15%) and reduce the percentage of black voters who intend to vote for Kilgore (from 17% in this poll to 10% or below).

    An interesting challenge to say the least.

    ***
    He needs to talk more about issues women care about (like the pre-school initiative he’s advocating this week), and continue to try to find ways to appeal to men (although the pugilistic style he’s adopted may help with men, it may turn women off).

    Another conundrum.

    But, the good news is that it’s August and the election’s still close. That wasn’t the case in 1993 or 1997 where the deal was sealed before Labor Day.”

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