All Politics Is Local: HD 91

Stuck on the Left Coast for a weekend of work, I am blogging about my home HD without the benefit of checking my facts at 7-11 or Farm Fresh.

Del. Tom Gear won 60:40 over faux Independent Randy Gilliland. Some bloggers predicted otherwise. Oops, they were wrong.

Let’s look at the numbers in a microcosm. My town, Poquoson, with 12,000 Virginians, is one sixth of the 91st HD. Tom Gear won 60:40 in my home. Based on our voiting demographics, he should have won 70:30 minimum and 80:20 tops.

The delta from 60:40 to 75:25(an appropriate number) in this election was 500 votes. If 500 more ‘Bull Islanders’ had voted for Gear, he would have been what is ‘expected’ (75:25).

Two Democrat city councilmen worked against Gear. One is a native and one is a retired USAF ‘move in’. If both men changed 250 votes based on their personal influence, that explains the whole deal. The home grown guy could do that if just his cousins voted with him.

Let’s say one fellow moved 150 votes and the other 100 votes – that means only 200 voters bought the dirt slinging by Gilliland.

So, the difference between 60:40 and 75:25 can be explained with names and faces in local politics. Looks like, as usual, our MSM – the Daily Press’s shrill attacks and bias was meaningless at the polls.

The big story is how our vote turnout was so low. Poquoson usually is in the top 3 of 134 counties and cities for vote turn out. Many reliable ‘R’ voters were too disgusted with Republicans in office to vote at all. I’d like to see more real analysis of the low turnout.

Oh, by the way, Gilliland never called to concede the election. Not gentlemanly, like his campaign.


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Comments

4 responses to “All Politics Is Local: HD 91”

  1. JamesRiverGOP Avatar
    JamesRiverGOP

    If the vote turnout was down, perhaps it was because voters felt they had awful options for delegate — one guy who can’t manage his own affiars or pay his taxes and who’s debunked by his own House GOP colleagues and another who’s got a DUI record.

    Sheesh … what’s a voter to do?

  2. James Atticus Bowden Avatar
    James Atticus Bowden

    JamesRiver: Your Democrat candidate had more than a DUI going against him. Lying about it mattered. And then there was that whole thing about him being a Democrat, tax and spend guy.

    It’s amusing that someone would think the voters care much what ‘colleagues’, especially RINOs, in the GA think about their delegate. That is almost like having the Daily Press against you – it’s a badge of honor.

  3. Sounds like we needed None of the Above on the ballot.

  4. Anonymous Avatar

    DUI is not cool, I think we can all agree. However, my question for your Atticus, is what is your position on adultery? Does Delegate Gear get a pass on that one?

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