Bacon's Rebellion

Does anyone know what’s going on with Reporterette? She hasn’t posted since February 27th–her views from Afton Mountain are missed.

The 4 March post on Kilgore’s words (“Blow Right Over” – Isn’t That…) has become swamped by irrelevancies and non-sequiturs but the importance of discussing these words has not diminished.

Kilgore’s quote comes from an interview with Times Community Newspapers editors and reporters. If one reads the story, Kilgore is saying if elected he would support the “Techway” not one of the other two Potomac crossings that the Road Gang supports. Many of the posts in the last thread addressed these corridors.

The Eastern Bypass in theory relieves congestion on I-95 from South of Fredericksburg to North of Baltimore. VDOT and MDOT studies show a roadway in this location would not meet this goal. Scattered urban land-use would generate traffic in eastern Virginia, southern Maryland and in the DelMarVa Urban Support Region that would swamp the new roadway. As is the case with I-81, moving freight to rail (plus an Auto-Train that would carry cars and RVs from North of the Susquehanna to Florida) would be far more efficient.

The Western Bypass (aka, Western Transportation Corridor) would carry traffic from North of Fredericksburg to I-70 in Maryland. In theory this would serve Washington-Dulles Airport and the “fast growing” urban agglomerations west of VA Route 28 in Virginia and cross the Potomac to connect with I-70. Again the data does not support this roadway for the same reasons.

The Techway is a different roadway. It is a Potomac river bridge and access roads to get folks who live in Maryland and want to work in the northern part of Virginia or fly out of Dulles from the I-270 corridor to the Dulles Toll Road/Greenway corridor. For yet a third time, the numbers do not support the idea. Frank Wolf who sponsored a study of the Techway found out how strongly citizens felt and dropped it like a hot potato.

For 30 years Maryland (at the state, county and community levels) has been adamantly opposed to any and all of these roadways. Given the leanings of the current Governor, he may support one or more until he reads the pole results and considers the impact of voter views on his next election. That reversal is just what has happened land week to the Western Transportation Corridor in Loudoun County. Even the Build Everywhere board elected in 2003 can not ignore the lack of support.

Some roadway improvements in all three of these corridors may be needed. On the other hand PRT or some other technology may be better. It is very clear that Balanced Communities both inside and outside the Clear Edge will greatly reduce the demand for any new infrastructure.

What is the solution here? It is to have region-wide agreement on a future settlement pattern and on a mobility system to provide mobility. That means Balanced Communities. Sorry there is no alternative regardless of the length of filibusters and the number of non-sequiturs. For another view on this see Roger Lewis’ column in the Saturday TWP Real Estate section. The solution is not a badly informed comment by Kilgore which was our original post.

We will address some of the overarching issues in our next two columns including an easy to apply definition of Geographic Illiteracy.

EMR

We haven’t heard much here from our friend Barnie lately … could he be busy preparing for a Senate run in 2006? Jeff Schapiro, has Barnie been whispering in your ear or is this another Russ Potts-like fantasy for you?

Update: Norm over at One Man’s Trash is all over Schapiro and Commonwealth Conservative has a few choice words, too.

In a speech delivered Feb. 28, Republican Attorney General candidate Steve Baril raised the issues of gang violence, the crystal meth epidemic and convicted criminals getting off without jail time. They strike me as entirely legitimate topics for debate. I just wonder how they resonate with the public right now. Said Baril:

As I look across the landscape of Virginia, I am struck by the outbreak of gang violence in Northern Virginia, which is insidiously seeping down the Shenandoah Valley.

Violent crime is on the rise.

Is violent crime on the rise? I thought it was continuing to decline. What are the latest stats?

Baril wants to hire 100 more state troopers who could be deployed to “hot spots” around the state as needed. He also calls for reforming criminal sentencing guidelines, which “have degenerated to where a defendant is convicted and all too often serves little or no active jail time. … Sentencing guidelines should be grounded in common sense, justice and public safety,” he said in his speech. “Criminal sentencing should not be a tool for prison management.”

As a tough-on-crime kind of guy myself, I share Baril’s concerns and appreciate his tough-on-crime outlook. I’m just not sure how intensely I care about these issues. My perception is that crime is on the decline. Sure, it’s a problem. But it’s not top of mind.

Email from a Roanoke gay activist/attorney: “John Edwards has announced today that he is not running for Attorney General this year. It seems reasonable to assume that, among other things, he could foresee a tremendous, brutal, battle over his heroic consistent record of voting for LGBT rights, including against all versions of the evil State constitutional amendment.”

Roanoke Times, “Roanoke senator drops statewide nomination bid”
http://www.roanoke.com/news/roanoke%5C19578.html

Blue Dog:

Here’s the real story … the State Senator John Edwards was lagging behind in contributions to Democrat AG candidate, State Senator Deeds (but Creigh is not looking good financially – by any means).

But more to the point, Mr. Edwards has never been known for campaigning in the trenches.

It’s not his style.

Back in 1992, John Edwards blew his big chance to run for the 6th District Congressional seat because he did not organize the local Democratic caucuses.

The straw that broke his back? Rockingham County Democrats and locals who resided next to Skyline Drive Parkway voted for Steve Musslewhite in the county caucus due to a bogus “property rights” issue involving the state park. These folks arrived in vans and buses from the west side of the mountain to vote against “environmentalist” Edwards.

Hmm …

If Democrat John Edwards won the party nomination, he might have possibly beat GOP candidate Bob Goodlatte in the November election. After all, the seat was occupied by Roanoke-based Democrat, Congressman Jim Olin, for 12-years.

In 2001, Edwards lost the Democrat primary for AG to Delegate Donald McEachin by 4-percentage points. He should have won that race as well. Democratic AG candidate Donald McEachin boasted about his NRA F-rating and lost big to Kilgore that year in rural Virginia.

Now, State Senator Creigh Deeds, who patron the hunting & fishing constitutional amendment, will become the lone AG Democrat candidate in 2005.

And local valley ‘Pubs say small town attorney, Creigh Deeds, could possibly win the statewide race.

Thoughts, comments?

But I think we’re headed for a Kaine-Baskerville-Deeds ticket for the Dems.

If there’s a bigger boondoggle than spending billions on new roads and highways, it’s building billions on mass transit where it is economically infeasible. Ken Reid (an advocate of more roads) has sent out an e-mail communique justifiably blasting the wastefulness of the Virginia Railway Express (VRE). Says he:

According to the latest data from the Northern Virginia Transportation Commission — which is supposed to oversee VRE and WMATA costs, but spends more time on pro-transit propaganda — VRE is only carrying about 14,529 average trips a day. This equates to about 7,500 actual physical passengers. 7,000 is about what four lanes of I-66 heading eastbound can carry in ONE hour. For this, taxpayers in the affected jurisdictions where VRE operates will have to pay $28 million a year.

$28 million a year could build ONE diamond interchange, thus providing true congestion relief. If we allow rail into the Dulles Corridor and Loudoun County, Loudoun residents, like those of Spotsylvania county, will be asked to fork out money to subsidize the select few and there will be less money for other needs.

But why stop our examination of the alternatives there? Imagine if we invested $28 million in, oh, say, promoting telework and hotelling programs, or traffic light sequencing, or better GIS tools to analyze the impact of land use decisions on the regional transportation network.

The Virginia Progressive thinks Jerry Kilgore has “gone crazy” for saying this in defense of his support for a third Potomac River crossing to relieve I-95 congestion:

“We’re coming through. It’s necessary to this region. If you don’t want an exit ramp in your locality, fine. We’ll blow right over you, but we’ve got to move people that are just going north-south through this region more quickly. “

Inartful as his phasing may be, don’t we want new roads to be limited access so as to move existing traffic, not spawn development and more traffic around interchanges?

Radford University had three choices when it set out to choose a new president: hire from within, hire a credentialed academic from another institution, or hire an unconventional candidate with a compelling skill set.

In choosing Penelope Kyle of the Virginia Lottery, Radford took the unconventional option.

Only time will tell if Ms. Kyle was the right choice, but I applaud Radford’s Board of Visitors for its willingness to take a risk on a candidate from outside of academia. Most institutions would benefit from the different perspective someone from outside the “club” brings.

From what I have read, my alma mater, William and Mary, is only considering conventional candidates for its presidency.

So you think transportation funds are tight? According to this Washington Post story,

[Metro] wants to find out if trading seats for space will help people get on and off the subway quicker.

Board members are considering whether to approve a pilot study to redesign 16 cars. The proposed designs would remove between 8 and 24 seats, while adding bars to aid standing passengers.

Cost of the pilot study? $750,000. That’s chump change when you’re talking $4 billion for rail to Dulles, the project E. M. Risse discusses below.

Still–read the story and make the call. A project worthy of funding? (I guess no other rail system in the world has ever tested this brilliant idea.)

Today’s The Washington Post reports that the METRO extension to Dulles has passed another hurdle. A week ago a blogger noted that the Federal Transit Administration gave the METRO extension to Dulles low marks in its evaluation of proposed new projects seeking federal funding. The current plan ranked “Medium” or “Medium-Low” in 7 of the 9 categories.

Two points:

1. The scores were probably fair for the current plan. However, the evaluations in at least categories of Overall Project Justification, Cost Effectiveness, Land Use, Mobility Improvement and Operating Finance would have been far higher if there was solid state/municipal/private commitment to have supporting land uses in the station areas. [See our column at db4.dev.baconsrebellion.com “Rail-To-Dulles Realities” 4 January 2004.]

2. According to the summary of the status of the federal transportation reauthorization we have seen, the chances of getting federal funding from the current administration with grades like that are slim to none.

It is hard to understand how intelligent people can continue to propose new transport facilities without relating them to the distribution of travel demand.

In the case of METRO that means the station areas settlement pattern. In the 80s S/PI started capsulizing the problem with the distribution of travel demand and METRO’s capacity this way:

“Most of the METRO trains, leave most of the METRO stations, most of the time essentially empty.”

This is not a condemnation of the idea to build a METRO system in the National Capital Subregion or of management of the system (there is plenty of grounds for condemnation in other areas of operation), it is a condemnation of the municipal, state and federal failure to create supportive land uses in the METRO station areas.

To make METRO function well it will take more than balanced development at each village-scale station area. It will require a balance travel demand among all stations so there is healthy ridership on every train all day and into the night.

Until there is a plan that does creates balanced ridership and Balanced Communities, extending METRO is a waste of money, just as the FTA analysis suggests.

EMR

I saw a casting call in today’s Richmond Times-Dispatch “Weekend” magazine–they’re looking for 1,000 extras for a Touchstone Television pilot called “Commander-in-Chief,” starring Geena Davis as the first female president. The open casting call will be held Saturday, 10-6, at The Shops at Willow Lawn in Richmond.

The Virginia Film Office must be doing cartwheels. Drudge is leading with the story, using a huge picture of Ms. Davis.

Numerous bloggers commented last week on Marc Fisher’s column in the Washington Post about the Kaine-Kilgore match-up. That’s supposed to be Virginia Pundit Watch shtick, but, hey, I thrive on competition.

Mr. Fisher was just online and I asked him several questions, including these:

Manassas Park, Va.: Enjoyed your column on Kaine and Kilgore. Any chance you will meet with George Fitch, Kilgore’s challenger, and/or Russ Potts, the independent?
Marc Fisher: I never pass on a chance to hear the wit and wisdom of Russ Potts. You may know him as a Virginia state senator, but he was also an executive in the Chicago White Sox organization and has one of the most interesting life stories of any politician in the region.
I don’t know Fitch, but I’ll be out on the campaign trail and will see how he’s doing.
Fairfax, Va.: Russ Potts wants to restore the car tax. Do you think that’s the ticket to the Virginia governor’s mansion?
Marc Fisher: Well, he’s not about to put that on a bumper sticker. But his central point–that Virginia needs to pay the price for its massive growth, and that budget gimmickry is not the answer–is one that many voters do take seriously. On the other hand, Walter Mondale could give us a nice talk about the electoral effectiveness of lecturing us on the need for higher taxes.

I recommend reading the whole chat for comments on NVA secession, Ten Commandment yahoos in Virginia, and the notion that the Virginia tax surplus could be returned to taxpayers.

“I saw the Gene McCarthy campaign, and Bobby Kennedy in ’68. I saw the early days of Ross Perot in ’92, and then John McCain’s ‘Straight Talk Express.’ Russ Potts’ campaign was just like them, only different.”

R. Butler Cadware III has analyzed politics for over 50 years. At a Bacon’s Rebellion symposium on the 2005 election, he, like other pundits and political observers, struggled to explain the Russ Potts phenomenon. “He just came out of nowhere and made mincemeat of Kaine and Kilgore. We had no idea there was such a groundswell behind his candidacy. He was getting hundreds of letters a week to his Senate office, begging him to run. Who knew?”

Tia Diddy traced Potts’ success in winning the race to his dramatic announcement that he was a candidate. “The room was packed with cheering supporters. Teachers had called in sick to attend. Highway construction contractors left job sites and stood in the back, wearing hard hats with “Potts ’08” stickers on them. When Potts declared that he would bring back the car tax, he elecrified the crowd and turned Virginia politics on its head.”

Before Russ Potts, it had been an article of faith that Virginians hated the car tax and wanted it abolished. From Mark Warner through Tim Kaine to Jerry Kilgore, every major Virginia politican had at least paid lip service to completing Jim Gilmore’s promise to end the supposedly unpopular tax. Potts showed that the conventional wisdom was wrong. Not only did Virginians long for a return to the car tax, they responded with enthusiasm to other Potts initiatives to raise taxes.

Potts attracted adoring throngs at his every campaign appearance. Metro trains were held up on the Orange line whenever Potts greeted rush hour commuters and promised “more trains with televisions showing ESPN.” Citizens lined VRE tracks when Potts made “whistlestop” tours. Reporter Jess Shapro found Potts’ “Build a Road” and “Add a Lane” events the most heavily attended. “Potts would drive out to the countryside and point to a large open space. He’d tell folks their gas tax increase would go to a sorely needed new road, ‘right through there.’ His words would be drowned out by cheers. He’d stop on Rt. 66, get up on top of an SUV, and declare a new lane was needed. The honking from cars stuck in traffic was deafening.”

Potts cemented his victory at the first debate when he stared into the camera and declared, “Mr. Warner, tear down this tax cut.”

Kilgore tried to counter Potts by supporting a car tax on every vehicle except 4 x 4s with gun racks. Kaine called for a car tax on everything except mini-vans used to transport children to Sunday School. None of these proposals could stop the Potts juggernaut.

Attendees of the conference would not predict how Gov. Potts would govern and whether he would be able to push through his tax increases. They were impressed, however with the talented Connecticut consultants he placed in cabinet positions and were not suprised that his first executive order was to endorse Mark Warner for President in 2008.

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball analyzing the potential GOP candidates for president in 2008 is out. He had previously reviewed the Democratic field. Claiming the mind “boggles” at all the possibilities, the UVA Professor is not bullish on our junior Senator: “Senator George Allen of Virginia has a sunny disposition and a successful record in the Old Dominion, but does he have the stature and talent to make a credible presidential nominee?”

Many Republicans will revel in one juicy scenario that the “most quoted man in America” presents. How about Dick Cheney resigning for health reasons, being replaced by Condi Rice, and then having VP Rice getting the nomination in ’08?

If there are three in the race for governor it takes 33.4% to win. If there are four does it take 25.1% to win?

If so, what about this scenario? George Fitch does not smoke out Kilgore and Kilgore gets the Republican nomination in spite of his tax and spend hidden agenda. Then Fitch runs as an independent. Fitch has nothing to lose having alienated the party regulars.

This provides a true conservative (Fitch) and a true old timey Business-As-Usual (Potts) for the voters to choose between. Potts gets the money from the Road Gang, Fitch gets energy and grass roots support from those who want fundamental change. Either one could get over 25.1%

Kilgore and Kaine are left with the party regulars. This is a problem because as the two “major” parties have fine tuned their ability to win two-way races by 51% they become more vulnerable to attacks from someone outside the club.

By avoiding the issues that will cause them to lose rather than stressing what they stand for, the “major” parties have shrunk their tent and have fewer active members as a percentage of eligible voters. In fact both are minority parties, especially if you count those who do not bother to vote.

Could be interesting.

EMR