Jared
Diamond, the author of the Pulitzer Prize
winning book "Guns, Germs and Steel,"
published a new book in January 2005. In the
terms that booksellers like to use, "Guns,
Germs and Steel" was a BLOCKBUSTER in
sales and in content. A rare combination.
Diamonds’ new book is titled "Collapse,
How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed."
"Collapse" is every bit as
important as "Guns."
Full
disclosure: This is not a “book review” in
the usual meaning of the term. If you want to
read a thoughtful review of "Collapse,"
check out the one by Robert D. Kaplan in The
Washington Post “Book World,” Jan. 9,
2005.
This
column is an introduction to the book by one who
was prone to be sympathetic to the author’s
perspectives because of his previous work. While
we read "Collapse" with a
critical eye, it would not be fair to put this
off as an unbiased “review.” On the other
hand, this is not a paean of unabashed praise.
We cite a significant flaw of the book and note
what some readers are likely to say is wrong
with the book. We hope the net result will be
that each of you will read the book and come to
your own conclusions about the book and the
future. We expect you will learn a good deal.
Few
potential readers would be more prone than I to
find "Collapse" a great book.
"Guns, Germs and Steel" is
sometimes referred to as presenting a Unified
Field Theory of
Geography/History/Archeology/Anthropology. Those
who have read my book, "The Shape of the
Future," know that Diamond’s insights
on the evolution of contemporary civilization
articulated in "Guns, Germs and Steel"
are extremely useful in understanding human
settlement patterns and in creating sustainable
New Urban Regions. (See End
Note One.)
Two
Parts of an Enormous Canvas Depicting the
Evolution and Future Prospects of Civilization
"Guns,
Germs and Steel" outlines how over the
last 13,000 years contemporary global society
came to be distributed and organized. (It is not
a coincidence that this is the same 13,000-year
time period over which urban settlement patterns
emerged and evolved.) The book,
which won the Pulitzer prize, represents a
massive intellectual effort. It should be
among the important volumes one masters on the
way to being able to say one has an
“education.”
It
is unfair to try to summarize "Guns,
Germs and Steel," but here is an
attempt: The book explains why people speak
Spanish in the Andes and not “Incan” on the
Iberian Peninsula. It is often cited as the
most expansive documentation of the importance
of location and spacial distribution in human
activity. (See End Note Two.)
"Guns,
Germs and Steel" focused on events long
ago and far away. That is one of the reasons
Diamond’s first major work has had such an
impact. It is clear, powerful and deals with
times, places and relationships that few had
considered and even fewer could dispute.
"Collapse"
is about where contemporary global society is
headed if we do not change our ways in
fundamental ways. It primarily examines the last
1,500 years and assesses the trajectory of
contemporary society.
"Collapse"
documents what citizens need to understand and do
“today” if society in anything like its
current form is to be around “tomorrow.” For
this reason the book will engender debate,
unease and, unfortunately, denial.
In spite of
the 575 pages, the book is not exhaustive.
Diamond’s examples are selective. He does not
start with the first urban culture in the
Western Hemisphere–the 5,000 year old
“cities” in the Norte Chico region of
Peru–but with more recent societies such as
the classic Maya urban centers on the Yucatan
Peninsula and the smaller Anasazi settlements in
the South Western United States. These are
societies where most of the evidence has not
been erased by later human activities.
Diamond
focuses on places where there is good science
from which to draw well vetted conclusions. One
can determine if, for instance, cannibalism was
a factor in the final collapse–it often was as
in the Anasazi and the Greenland Norse
societies. As you might guess, Diamond rejects
the silly “noble and gentle savage, guardian
of the environment” stereotype.
Comparative
insular studies in the Southwestern Pacific
provide a wealth of solid information. Where
there is disagreement among scientists, Diamond
states the major contentions and outlines why he
supports one or another conclusion. In many
cases the point Diamond wants to make is as
valid for either theory.
"Collapse,"
while documenting historical societies on remote
Pacific islands and in Norse Greenland, also
focuses on places that are more easily
understandable, such as 16th Century Germany and
17th century Japan as well as contemporary Australia,
Montana, Iceland, the New Guinea Highlands
(where he spent many years doing research) and
places like Haiti, Rwanda. But the focus is
always on what these places and events mean for
contemporary, First World, urban
societies–that means you and me.
The
direct and indirect impact of deforestation and
loss of top soil play a key roll in many
collapse scenarios. Diamond could have revisited
the extensive historical work on North Africa
and the Near East but instead addresses the
issues in Haiti and the Dominican Republic where
maps and public records document the impact of
differing policies and where air photos make the
current status painfully evident.
Deforestation,
top soil loss and failure to adjust to climate
change are recurrent themes. In most cases
population pressure was a key factor. After a
period of growth and prosperity, the natural
systems could no longer support an expanded
population.
As
the subtitle suggests the book details how past
societies “choose” to fail or succeed,
collapse or to avoid collapse–not how outside
forces cause collapses.
Diamond
does not go over the ground covered by "Guns,
Germs and Steel," which described
societies overwhelmed not by choices they made but by
outside forces. The Inca and Aztec empires were
wiped out, for instance, by disease and superior
military technology of the Spanish invaders.
Starting
at Home
Diamond
provides details on the current status of places
on the edge like Rwanda and Somalia but also
seemingly stable and safe places like my home
subregion in western Montana. It came as a
surprise that the author would start a worldwide
survey of the collapse of societies with a
detailed look at the place where I grew up and
went to college.
His
first long chapter focuses on the Bitterroot
Valley of Montana where my aunt and uncle farmed
after World War II. This it the place my father,
literary on the back of an 4x9 business
envelope, figured out he could not make a living
farming. (See End Note
Three.)
Diamond’s
first experience in Montana was a few years
after we moved there. In his first chapter there
is hardly a page that does not mention people
and places I know and conditions with which I am
familiar. (See “Fire
and Flood,” Nov. 3, 2003.)
Living in
California, Montana, Hawaii, Georgia,
Massachusetts, North Carolina, New York,
Maryland and Virginia, working in all those
places and many more, plus travel in
Scandinavia, Europe and the Caribbean, I have
crossed Diamond’s path many times. There
is even Greenland sketch in "The Shape of
the Future." (See End
Note Four.)
As a person who has done things,
built places and traveled to learn, I find that
Diamond’s perceptions and perspectives ring
true.
I
am sure that there are those who study specific
things in depth who will say: “Based on 30
years of study of the Xerkel Peoples of West
Nowhere my findings differ ....” That is not
the point. The point is the big picture.
Covering as much territory as he does, Diamond
will miss some things and misstate some facts.
The majority who will disagree with Diamond make
their living from Business As Usual. They hope
that Diamond goes away like Vance Packard and
that few citizens come to see the future of
contemporary global society as he does. That way
they can continue to make money from Business As
Usual.
One
of the phrases that readers of our columns have
become familiar with is The Fallacy of
Composition: What is good for one, may not be
good for all. This is a term that has currency
in the field of economics (and in the field of
exonomics). Diamond examines the same
individual/society relationship–private
interests and public responsibilities–with the
use of the term “Rational Thinking.” This is
a oxymoronish phrase from the field of
psychology. (If one can benefit from an action
at the expense of others and not get caught in
the short run, it is “rational” to make that
choice.) Diamond also uses the phrase “The
Tragedy of the Commons,” which is familiar in
resource conservation circles.
All
these approaches mean that maximizing
individual interests in the short term does not
yield long-term sustainability for the society.
Diamond documents that those who took advantage
of their position of control and leverage at the
top of the economic chain to the detriment of
society as a whole have had the privilege of
being the last to die after seeing their
children and parents die and be eaten in the
last phases of collapse.
A
Few Highlights
The
views of several Western Montana “come heres”
quoted in the first chapter captures in their
own words the clash of values and priorities
that afflict doomed historic societies when
resources became scarce. The same logic can be heard at land-use control public
hearings and in the posts on the Bacons
Rebellion blog.
Diamond
points out that if one lists the world's
political trouble spots -- a map identifies
Haiti, Rwanda, Burundi, Madagascar, Somalia,
Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh,
Mongolia, Philippines, Indonesia, Solomon
Islands and we might add Kenya, Sudan, Ethiopia,
Niger and others -- they also are the
environmental trouble spots as well. Since
Diamond completed writing "Collapse,"
the media have provided a steady diet of
“further examples.”
The
author’s population prospect is frightening.
While the threat of wild population growth is
dimming, the cohort of young men with nothing to
do in those trouble spots is growing rapidly due
to the baby boom of a decade ago. Further,
if those in the Third World were to achieve
current First World consumption levels, the
demand for resources would be the equivalent of
a 12X increase in world population. And it is
hard to keep them “down on the farm” –
witness China to which Diamond devotes a
chapter.
Diamond
does a very good job of evaluating the reasons
why some resource industries are becoming better
citizens and others worse. His portrait of the
mining, oil, timber and fishing industries is
worth the price of the book.
The
One Shortcoming
The
one shortcoming of the book is not its content
but its the presentation. It is hard to
understand how a book that 16 people read all or
part of (including three named editors and two
agents) could have signed off on such a poorly
organized and presented volume. The maps are
useful but simple. The photos are instructive
but are all in one place, not related to the
text. More and better images could have been
selected. This is a world-class book, how about
some color?
The
real problem, however, is that the text is a
typographical wasteland. There are headings
listed at the start of the 16 long chapters but
there is no graphic help in navigating the
pages, subsections, or sections within the
chapters. The only guide is that the small print
at the top of the right page changes as one goes
from section to section. But that is not
helpful when the section changes on the left
hand page. Our copy is now adorned with hand-written
headings in addition to the usual marginal
notes.
There
is a longish introductory description of the
structure of the book with a “pig in the
python” analogy that only becomes
understandable after reading the book. Perhaps
the worst problem is that important concluding
observations on the roles an individual can play
is buried in the “further reading” appendage
at the back of the book. There is, thankfully,
an index.
Someone
may have warned Diamond about some of these
problems. A few are “explained” in the text.
It would have been better for an editor to add
typographical interest and guideposts throughout
the book. We have a theory on how this happens
but that is another story. (See End
Note 5.)
The
Core Value of Diamond's Work
There
are many important and useful observations in
Diamond's work but two seem especially relevant
to the readers of Bacons Rebellion.
After:
-
rroviding a five point framework for evaluating
the success and collapse of societies,
-
previewing
the fate of 20 past societies in detail with
reference to many others,
-
reviewing
the current status of about the same number of
contemporary subregions, regions and
nation-states,
-
outlining in detail the twelve
critical issues facing contemporary global
society,
-
dissecting
the 11 sound-bite responses by Business As Usual
advocates to the potential of collapse of First
World societies,
-
and documenting that global
interconnectedness leverages collapse, making
the First World “well-to-dos” not much
different from the Greenland Norse with the
privilege of being the last to die after
watching their parents and children,
Diamond comes down to two choices
that have been critical in tipping the outcome
towards success or failure:
long-term planning
and willingness
to reconsider core values. Both
of these should be of interest to readers of
Bacons Rebellion.
Long
Term Planning
The
failure to plan for the long term and to provide
a wide margin for unexpected events seems like a
reasonable thing for a society to do. Diamond
documents that time after time a problem was
noted but the future was not planned for, the
result was collapse. When we recently pointed
out on the Bacons Rebellion blog that it
would be in the best interest of the military to
plan for the consequences of moving employees to
Ft. Belvoir so the impact would not damage their
own interests at Fort A.P. Hill, a civilian
employee of the military suggested that
long-term planning for sustainable human
settlement patterns was “a joke.”
Reconsidering
Core Values
The
willingness to reconsider core values in the
light of changing circumstances, including what
is best for society as whole for the long term,
also seems like an easy call. Those
who follow the media coverage of the recent
national election and of the current election
campaign in Virginia know that to even question
“core values” makes one a public enemy
suspected of terrorism.
The
issues central to the “Culture Wars” (aka,
guns, gays, god) are the ones that candidates
focus on. The death penalty, stem cell research,
the right to bear arms under any circumstances
and the uncritical acceptance of the prevailing
pattern of growth are favorite themes. The
Greenland Norse would understand the importance
of upholding core values, but they are not
around anymore.
Where
to From Here?
You
need to read all 575 pages for yourself. A brief
overview does not convey the power of
Diamond’s evidence. Even his 12 core measures
of contemporary societies health require at
least a paragraph to explain why each is
critical to fat, self-satisfied First World
citizens. Remarkably, Diamond makes a clear
connection between the shaman on Easter Island,
the kings on the Mayan Peninsula and the Norse
on Greenland and the “come-heres” in Western
Montana who say about the same things as those
who did not like our column on West Virginia. (See
“Take Me Home
Congested, Non-urban Roads,” April 11,
2005.)
When
you are done, however, you will be left with a
question: What can I do? All of the big-picture
issues are nice, but what it comes down to what
is in your head. There are a lot of
things you can do to make the world a better
place:
-
Work
to fundamentally change governance structure
(e.g. PROPERTY DYNAMICS)
-
Support
the evolution of functional human settlement
patterns (e.g. PROPERTY DYNAMICS)
-
Support
the creation of affordable and accessible
housing
-
Start
a resource and energy conservation awareness
program in your neighborhood elementary
school
-
Start
a reforestation project
-
Participate
in a roadside or stream valley cleanup
These
are good but what is most important is what goes
on inside your head and the heads of your family
members. You must overcome the siren call to
consumption and understand the Fallacy of
Composition and avoid the “Rational
Thinking” that leads to the Tragedy of the
Commons. A careful reading of "Collapse"
is a good start.
--
August 8, 2005
End
Notes
(1)
It is obvious from the text and end notes in our
book the impact "Guns, Germs and
Steel" had on our own effort to
articulate a Unified Field Theory of Human
Settlement Patterns. Of the 146 books listed in
APPENDIX THREE – READINGS, no book other than
perhaps "Consilience: The Unity of
Knowledge" by Edward O. Wilson had more
influence on the formation of the ideas
presented in The Shape of the Future. In spite
of the detail and overlap of Diamond's new book,
we did not identify a need to revise what we say
in "The Shape of the Future."
(2)
"Guns, Germs and Steel"
explains why the east-west orientation of
Eurasia led to the establishment and advance of
what we call civilization. It examines the
transition from hunter-gatherer bands to the
domestication of plants and animals
(agriculture), the rise of barter, trade and
commerce, the evolution of governance, the
agglomeration of urban places and the transition
from craft to technology and science. It
documents why the north-south orientation of
Africa where homo sapiens first walked upright
and the Americas where homo sapiens arrived
50,000 years ago and built the first “city”
5,000 years ago where overridden by Europeans in
the 15th through 20th centuries. The recent
National Geographic/PBS series on "Guns,
Germs and Steel" has gotten very good
reviews.
(3)
After selling a farm in the Santa Ynez Valley
near Santa Barbara, Calif., and working for Boeing during the
Second World War, my aunt and uncle traveled
across the country from the valleys of
western Oregon to the Piedmont of Virginia
looking for a place to invest their war-time
savings and the proceeds from the sale of their
California land. They choose the Bitterroot
Valley in western Montana. After the war my
father and mother were forced to sell their farm
in the same California Valley and, following a
less thorough search, made the same decision on
the best location to farm. However, the numbers
did not work for the very reason I found when
working on Agricultural Preservation in New York
State two decades later. Simply stated the
problem was (and is) this: Scattered urban land
uses had driven up the price of attractive land
to the point it was not profitable to start a
farm. Ironically, one of the places my family
bid on near Darby in the Bitterroot Valley was
purchased by the Ford dealer from Santa Barbara
for a summer farm.
Our family settled
just outside of Glacier National Park which
turned out to be a much better choice for us.
After a decade, my aunt and uncle move back to
the Puget Sound New Urban Region and put in
another long stint at Boeing.
(4)
Experience stabilizing a sugar-mill ruin with
local labor over a 20-year period on a small
Caribbean island and traveling extensively in
the Caribbean, including Haiti during the last
years of Papa Doc’s rule, provides insight
into a number of issues raised by Diamond. Haiti
and the Dominican Republic ,which share the
island of Hispaniola, are places where we
photographed environmental degradation. We
observed the of logging of old growth forests in
Dominica and the long-term impact of
clear-cutting whole islands for sugar cane,
cotton and indigo, as well as natural and
planned reforestation process on islands from
Trinidad to Hispaniola.
(5)
The theory is that if someone wins a Pulitzer
and makes a lot of money on a book, no one will
point out the problems. We found a similar
problem in the later books of the revered
scholar and Librarian of Congress Daniel J.
Boorstin. There is an inverse problem for the
fledgling author: Everyone thinks they are an
editor and they want the work reworked in the
style they like and for the book to focus on the
issues that they understand.
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