Building Connectivity in Suburbia

Building Connectivity in Suburbia

Sunnyvale, Calif., wants to reinvent a 60's-era industrial office park as an innovation district. It's making progress but suburban sprawl is not an easy habit to break.

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The Great U.S. 460 Swamp

The Great U.S. 460 Swamp

VDOT had loads of warning that wetlands could kill the U.S. 460 project but the state charged ahead with a design-build contract that everyone knew could explode.

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Coming up: Car-Lite Burbs

Coming up: Car-Lite Burbs

A California developer is teaming with Daimler AG to bring buses, shuttles and ride sharing to an Orange County community -- with no government subsidies.

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Putting the “Garden” in Rain Garden

Putting the Garden in Rain Garden

Soon Virginians will start spending billions to meet tough storm-water regs. Lewis Ginter Botanical Garden wants to show how we can save the bay – and look really good doing it.

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Tech Insurrection

Tech Insurrection

Smart cities, says Anthony Townsend, will be forged by geeks, activists and civic hackers through bottom-up technological innovation.

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Genius-Free Virginia

geniuses

by James A. Bacon

Economic development has become a game not just of recruiting corporate capital but of developing, recruiting and retaining human capital. Much has been written about the desirability of recruiting members of the “creative class,” the entrepreneurs, scientists, artists and educators who contribute disproportionately to entrepreneurship and economic growth. But how about the super creatives — the 1%, so to speak, of creativity? No one has tracked them…. until now.

The MacArthur Foundation has released data showing the origins and present whereabouts of 897 exceptionally creative individuals in the arts, sciences, humanities and public policy sphere recognized by the Foundation and bestowed with a no-strings-attached $625,000 stipend. The data show two things: (1) MacArthur geniuses are born disproportionately in California and the Northeastern U.S., and (2) they gravitate in huge numbers to California and, to a lesser extent, a sub-set of Northeastern states: New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts.

creativity_on_moveIt is discouraging to see that Virginia is arid ground for producing geniuses. We’ve fallen a long way since the days of the Founding Fathers! Only three MacArthur fellows were born in the state. The silver lining is that the state has enjoyed a net gain of 10 MacArthur fellows due to in-migration. We may not be producing geniuses but at least we’re attracting them. Still, the number residing here still is meager compared to many other states.

The MacArthur Foundation provided little analysis of what accounts for the birthing and migration of geniuses. Perhaps the paucity of super-creative people in Virginia and the South generally reflects a lower quality education system. One wonders, for example, if Virginia’s emphasis on Standards of Learning — elevating the academic performance of the entire student body to minimum standards, which puts the focus on weaker students — will do much of anything to elevate the number of super-achievers.

One also might ask what factors impel geniuses to move. They are far more likely (79%) to move from their state of birth than the general population (30%) or the college-educated population (40%). More than one-fifth of MacArthur geniuses came to the United States from abroad. Scientific geniuses migrate to centers of research excellence. Artistic geniuses migrate to cultural centers. Geniuses in the humanities migrate to communities with top universities. That explains the concentrations in California, New York and, to a lesser extent, Boston, and the exodus of geniuses from Pennsylvania, which creates geniuses aplenty but has trouble hanging onto them.

The handful of geniuses who live in Virginia, I suspect, are found mostly in Northern Virginia, in the orbit of Washington, D.C. Who knows, there may be one or two in Charlottesville. (If someone has the time, they can peruse the list of MacArthur fellows here to see where Virginia’s geniuses are located.) Among the MacArthur Foundation’s main areas of focus, one is “public issues.” Presumably, many of grantees in this field are located in Washington, D.C. (home to 32 geniuses) and the outlying regions of Maryland (15 geniuses) and Virginia (13 geniuses).

What hasn’t been demonstrated is whether the geography of geniuses impacts the economy. Richard Florida demonstrated a clear connection between the creative class and economic prosperity but no one yet has shown a connection between concentrations of MacArthur fellows and economic vitality. Perhaps that’s because no one has studied the issue.

There’s also one other possibility: Maybe the types of people recognized for creative genius reflect the values and worldview of the civic elite in Chicago, where the MacArthur Foundation is located. Are any of MacArthur’s fellows champions of traditional values, fiscal conservatism and free markets favored by the genius-free heartland? It’s worth a study.

Using Big Data to Put Veterans Back to Work

veteransby James A. Bacon

Unemployment among veterans in the United States is higher than that for the population at large. The problem is particularly acute among post 9/11 veterans, for whom the unemployment rate ran 9.0% in 2013 — nearly 50% higher than the 6.2% rate for all Americans, according to data from the U.S. Congress’ Joint Economic Commitee.

The silver lining for Virginians is that the unemployment rate for young vets in the Old Dominion was actually lower than the statewide average — only 4% compared to 5.4%.

Those figures alone are grounds for thinking that Virginia is more committed than many other states to promote veteran employment. In one example of that state’s commitment, the commonwealth helped pioneer a public-private open data collaborative, Veteran Talent, to shed light on veteran employment issues. The Virginia Employment Commission contributed data on unemployed veterans in each county by age, education attainment and the occupation code for the job they seek.

Veteran Talent, a project funded by the Duffield Family Foundation, mashed up data from numerous public and private sources, including U.S. Census data and job sites like Monster.com, to create a detailed national picture of how many unemployed veterans there are, where they are located, what job skills they possess and what skills employers are looking for. Not only will the searchable database suggest where veterans could be focusing their job searches geographically and where employers can identify pockets of potential employees, but it allows researchers to plumb the data for insight into the nature of the challenge.

“We need a clear understanding of the problem,” says Aneesh Chopra, co-founder of big-data and predictive-analytics firm Hunch Analytics and former chief technology officer in the Obama administration, who spear-headed the effort. We’ve had the data all along, he says, but it resided in numerous unconnected databases. By mashing up the data and making it accessible to the public, Veteran Talent allows people to spot patterns and make connections that would have been impossible before.

The Corporate Executive Board Talent Neuron used the database to examine how many veterans would qualify for entry-level technology jobs. In Virginia, for example, Talent Neuron found 681 technology jobs posted by employers committed to hiring veteran talent. Of those, about 190 are entry-level. The analysis also identified about 275 trainable, unemployed veterans in Virginia alone.

While unemployed veterans may not possess all the technology requirements needed to match those job requirements, they may meet some criteria. In other words, they have a shorter training bridge to cross than someone from the general population in order to qualify for an entry tech job. Says Chopra: “The current workforce system isn’t doing that.”

Research by John Parman, a College of William & Mary economics professor, found that unemployment rates for veterans varies in Virginia from below 2% in Alexandria and Stafford County to more than 11% in Bedford County and the City of Roanoke. Jurisdictions with more dynamic economies that experience more income mobility show lower veteran unemployment rates, while jurisdictions with less mobility show higher veteran unemployment rates. But veterans don’t seem to benefit as much from higher-mobility economies than the general population does.

“These findings … lead to important considerations when crafting policies targeted at solving veteran unemployment issues,” writes Parman. “Using non-veteran data to predict the experiences of veterans can be misleading and policies targeting reductions in general unemployment rates may have the unintended consequence of widening gaps between veteran and non-veteran outcomes.”

Changing the Culture of Reading

carolyn_boone

Carolyn Boone reading with patient. Photo credit:

by James A. Bacon

Dr. Carolyn Boone is a pediatrician who serves a largely African-American patient base in Northside Richmond. In addition to providing check-ups and vaccinations, she participates in the Virginia “Reach Out and Read” program, the goal of which is to teach the joy of reading to young children — and maybe to their parents as well.

Participating doctors dispense books to children and advise parents on the importance of reading out loud. Even if babies just put the book in their mouth, that’s OK, says Boone in a Reach Out and Read video. Pretty soon, they notice the faces in the book. And then they want to be read to.

“You see the children come in. They run to the bookcase, and they want a book. And they want you to read the book, and they’re pulling their mothers to read a book,” says Boone. “In my office, I don’t hear the screaming anymore. It’s quiet.” Instead of yelling at the child to sit down, “momma may be sitting down with them and reading a book.”

Lower-income Virginians tend not to place a high value upon reading (although there are always exceptions). In many cases the parents may be barely literate themselves, and they rarely have the money, even if so inclined, to buy books for their children. The middle-class ritual of reading to children at bed-time is a foreign concept. Little wonder, then, that so many poor children are ill-prepared when they enter kindergarten.

A study just published by the National Bureau of Economic Research confirms what a mountain of previous studies have already concluded. Head Start pre-school enrichment programs can help poor children make dramatic cognitive gains, but the gains fade away in elementary school. Head Start can’t make up for an entire childhood raised in a cognitively poor environment. It can’t make up for parents who either don’t care, don’t know how, or don’t have the means to encourage their children to read.

There is nothing intrinsic to being poor that discourages reading. Raised in a log cabin, Abraham Lincoln famously read by firelight. Anyone, no matter how destitute, can check out books from the public library or school library. Reach Out and Read tries to change the culture of poverty not just by handing out books to children who can’t read them yet but by enlisting parents, usually mothers, to participate. For a young child, half the pleasure of reading is snuggling into a parent’s lap or cozying up in bed with mom or dad at night. The bonding experience reinforces the positive associations with reading.

Reach Out and Read, which distributes more than 215,000 books annually to more than 121,000 children across Virginia, claims that participating children enter kindergarten with better vocabularies, stronger language skills and a six-month developmental advantage over their peers.

School teachers can help teach a love of reading but they can’t do it by themselves. Reading has to take place at home. Parents have to get involved. If we, as a society, want poor children to acquire the reading skills needed to participate in a 21-century knowledge economy, we can’t expect the schools to do it all. We have to reach the parents, too. We have to change the culture of reading, which means changing the culture of poverty.

Seeking a Clear Way Forward

school_kidsby James A. Bacon

Only 68% of Virginia’s public schools met state accreditation standards based on Standards of Learning (SOL) test scores, the Virginia Department of Education reported yesterday, down from 93% two years ago. I suppose one could describe that as bad news. But I would contend DOE is telling us what we all knew anyway: that we still have a lot of work ahead of us. Everyone understands that the decline resulted from higher standards, not worse performance. And everyone seems to agree that the higher standards are worth striving for. I actually find it reassuring that Virginia’s educrats are confronting the problem honestly rather than sugar-coating the system’s failures.

Board of Education President Christian Braunlich said it well: “The SOL tests students began taking 16 years ago established a uniform floor across the state. Now the floor is being raised so all students — regardless of where they live, who they are, or their family’s income — will have a foundation for success in an increasingly competitive economy. These new tests represent higher expectations for our students and schools and meeting them will be a multiyear process.”

We all agree there’s a huge problem. As the economy becomes progressively more knowledge intensive, children who fail at school relegate themselves to the economic margins for their lifetimes — creating an immense human tragedy and economic burden. Across the philosophical spectrum, we all agree this is a fundamental issue that must be dealt with.

Unfortunately, we are nowhere near a consensus on knowing how to move forward. The reason is that the factors affecting educational performance are so extraordinarily complex, as recent posts on this blog and the responses to those posts make clear. How much of Virginia’s sub-standard educational performance relate to the stresses and pathologies of poverty? How much is tied to cultural values and priorities of different racial, ethnic and socioeconomic groups? How much can be blamed on broad cultural trends, such as the proliferation of video games or decline in the work ethic? How much can be attributed to the inequitable distribution of educational resources? How much can be pinned on teachers, principals and school teachers? And that hardly begins to exhaust the list of questions.

There are no clear-cut answers. The Virginia Department of Education makes more data available in searchable format than ever before. Yet the data is ambiguous enough that all of us can find support for our ideological prejudices. We debate endlessly. Thus, there is no clear way forward.

How do we achieve a clear path forward? Perhaps we need to ask that question before we start spouting remedies based upon ideological preconceptions. I would suggest two broad strategies.

First, experiment more. We learn from experimentation. Our public school system, governed by overlapping federal, state and local bureaucracies, is not what anyone would describe as nimble or willing to take risks.  We need to create an environment in which we take more small risks, which, if successful, we can replicate and, if failures, we can shut down.

Second, measure more. We can’t learn from experimentation unless we measure the results.

What should we experiment and measure? Everything! Test and measure new pedagogies, especially those that integrate computer and online technologies. Test and measure charter schools. Test and measure the impact of smaller or bigger classrooms. Test and measure different programs for rewarding teachers. Test and measure pre-school programs and the impact they have academic performance in later years. Test and measure the impact of programs like Communities in Schools, an organization that puts staff in schools to help kids at risk by finding matching resources among the multitude of government and not-for-profit programs.

If we don’t experiment and measure, we’ll continue as we have: arguing much and settling little. Applying the social scientific method can tell us what works and what doesn’t. We’ll still argue over the validity of the tests and the meaning of the results, but we’ll be waging debates within much narrower parameters more closely tethered to the real world. The alternative, to continue as we have been, will yield us more of the same — and that’s one thing, we all agree, we don’t want.

The Huge Controversy Over Gas Pipelines

atlantic coast pipeline demonstratorsBy Peter Galuszka

Just a few years ago, Gov. Terry McAuliffe seemed to be a reasonable advocate of a healthy mix of energy sources. He boosted renewables and opposed offshore oil and gas drilling. He was suspicious of dangerous, dirty coal.

Then he started to change. During the campaign last year, he suddenly found offshore drilling OK, which got the green community worried. But there’s no doubt about his shifts with his wholehearted approval of the 550-mile Atlantic Coast Pipeline proposed by Duke Energy, Piedmont Natural Gas and AGL Resources, along with Richmond-based Dominion, one of McAuliffe’s biggest campaign donors.

The $5 billion Atlantic Coast Pipeline is part of a new phenomenon – bringing natural gas from the booming Marcellus Shale fields of Pennsylvania, Ohio and northern West Virginia towards busy utility markets in the Upper South states of Virginia, North Carolina and parts ones even farther south. Utilities like gas because it is cheap, easy to use, releases about half the carbon dioxide as coal, which is notorious for labor fatalities, disease, injuries and global warming.

The Atlantic Coast Pipeline would originate at Clarksburg, W.Va. (one of my home towns) and shoot southeast over the Appalachians, reaching heights of 4,000 feet among rare mountain plants in the George Washington National Forest, and then scoot through Nelson, Buckingham Nottoway Counties to North Carolina. At the border, one leg would move east to Portsmouth and the Tidewater port complex perhaps for export (although no one has mentioned that yet). The main line would then jog into Carolina roughly following the path of Interstate 95.

It’s not the only pipeline McAuliffe likes. An even newer proposal is the Mountain Valley Pipeline that would originate in southern West Virginia and move south of Roanoke to Chatham County. It also faces strong local opposition.

atlantic_coast_pipeline mapThe proposals have blindsided many in the environmental community who have shifted some of their efforts from opposing coal and mountaintop removal to going after hydraulic fracking which uses chemicals under high pressure and horizontal drilling to get previously inaccessible gas from shale formations. The Marcellus formation in Pennsylvania, New York, Ohio and West Virginia, the birthplace of the American oil and gas industry, has been a treasure trove of new gas.

The fracked gas boom has been a huge benefit to the U.S. economy. It is making the country energy independent and has jump started older industries in steel, pipe making and the like. By replacing coal, it is making coal’s contribution to the national energy mix drop from about 50 percent to less than 40 percent and is cutting carbon dioxide emissions that help make for climate change.

That at least, is what the industry proponents will tell you and much of it is accurate. But there are big problems with natural gas (I’ll get to the pipelines later). Here’s Bill McKibben, a Middlebury College professor and nationally known environmentalist writing in Mother Jones:

Methane—CH4—is a rarer gas, but it’s even more effective at trapping heat. And methane is another word for natural gas. So: When you frack, some of that gas leaks out into the atmosphere. If enough of it leaks out before you can get it to a power plant and burn it, then it’s no better, in climate terms, than burning coal. If enough of it leaks, America’s substitution of gas for coal is in fact not slowing global warming.

Howarth’s (He is a biogeochemist) question, then, was: How much methane does escape? ‘It’s a hard physical task to keep it from leaking—that was my starting point,’ he says. ‘Gas is inherently slippery stuff. I’ve done a lot of gas chromatography over the years, where we compress hydrogen and other gases to run the equipment, and it’s just plain impossible to suppress all the leaks. And my wife, who was the supervisor of our little town here, figured out that 20 percent of the town’s water was leaking away through various holes. It turns out that’s true of most towns. That’s because fluids are hard to keep under control, and gases are leakier than water by a large margin.

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Values, Income and Academic Performance

Douglas Freeman High School

Douglas Freeman High School

by James A. Bacon

Last night my wife and I engaged in an annual ritual of the school calendar. We went to Douglas Freeman High School to meet our son’s teachers and learn about the classes he’s taking. This was not a social event. We know very few Freeman families. Our motives were pragmatic. We wanted to arm ourselves with the information we need to be good parents. What is expected of our child academically? How much homework will he have? How can we keep track of his grades? How can we communicate our concerns, if we have any? We want our son to succeed academically because we want him to get into a good college. We also want him to develop the habits of self discipline and iniative that will stand him in good stead as an adult.

Many other parents there last night undoubtedly were thinking the same things. Here’s what surprised me, though. I’d guess that parents of only half the students showed up. Assuming the average class has about 25 kids, one would expect twenty-five parents (or even more, if both father and mother attended, as my wife and I did) to come meet each teacher. But few of the classes we visited were more than half full. While a few parents might have been working late, or were traveling out of town on business, or didn’t have access to a car, or had some other practical reason for missing parent’s night, it’s also likely that some of them didn’t care enough to bother.

And that brings me back to one of the big themes I’ve been hammering on the past couple of weeks in my analysis of Virginia Standard of Learning scores: the role of culture and the role of socio-economic status in influencing the pass rates for SOL tests. I made a huge mistake in the beginning of the analysis. Correlating the performance of Virginia school divisions with the percentage of students classified as “disadvantaged,” I found that 57% of the variability in SOL scores from division to division could be attributed to socioeconomic status. I then proceeded to slice and dice the other 43% in an effort to determine how much of the variability could be attributed to “cultural” factors, as opposed to inequitable distribution of resources or even to the quality of local school leadership.

What parent’s night reminded me is that social-economic status and culture are entwined. Typically, embedded in the truism that academic success in K-12 school is highly correlated with socio-economic status is the assumption that greater household income is what makes the difference. I don’t deny that income is a factor. Affluent parents can buy their kids more books. They can send their kids to summer enrichment programs. They can hire tutors. They can seek help if their child has mental health issues. Without question, all those things make a difference. But they’re trivial compared to the day-in, day-out discipline of going to class, paying attention and doing the homework.

The correlation between academic success and socioeconomic status is complex. The fact is, some people value education more than others do. Some people are willing to make bigger financial sacrifices, spend more of their own personal time and undergo more stress and angst to ensure that their children maximize their educational opportunities.

Anyone who has been a parent to an adolescent male knows exactly what I’m talking about. Parenting takes a lot of effort. It’s easy to let your kid skate by with Cs. By contrast, it can be exhausting to bird-dog your kid every day to enforce rules about watching TV and playing on the computer — basically, banning them from doing the things that adolescent males like to do — and cracking the books instead. Kids argue. They throw tantrums. They sneak behind their parents’ backs. If moral suasion and positive reinforcement don’t work — and frankly, they’re pretty weak compared to the allure of Call of Duty or Halo, or the party culture of sex, alcohol and drugs -- the only recourse is running a household police state of constant surveillance.

In the liberal/progressive worldview, it’s the money, or lack of it, that explains a child’s socioeconomic success later in life. If a kid grows up in an affluent household, odds are he or she will be an affluent adult. If a kid grows up in a poor household, odds are that he or she will be poor. As I acknowledged before, access to money can ease stress and lack of it can increase stress. But it’s not the money they have growing up that makes upper middle-class kids successful in life. It’s the values they are raised with. It’s the time and effort their parents put into raising them. Indeed, spoiling a kid with too much material wealth — big allowances, a new car on their 16th birthday, trips to Europe — can breed a sense of entitlement and destroy their initiative. Conversely, a kid who grows up poor and hungry but with the right values, is far more likely to succeed financially.

Socio-economic status is associated with higher academic achievement in significant part because the values and character traits that contribute to successful careers and the accumulation of wealth also contribute to higher academic performance. The values come first, the money follows. That’s why some kids raised in poverty succeed in rising above their circumstances. That’s why some affluent kids become spoiled, find no sense of purpose and fall below their potential. Parenting is hard — that’s why kids from stable, two-parent households have an advantage over kids from broken homes, or kids whose fathers play no role in their life.

Economic determinism doesn’t get us very far in understanding why some kids excel in school and others fail. We have to dig deeper if we want to figure out what it takes to give every child a chance in life to succeed.

Storm Water Regs? What Storm Water Regs?

silver_line_construction

Silver Line construction

Officials at the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority (MWAA) have revealed that they will have to redesign portions of Phase II of the Rail-to-Dulles project to accommodate new storm-water regulations. MWAA offered no estimate as to how much the changes would add to the estimated $5.6 billion total price tag for both phases of the project.

According to the Washington Post, MWAA has already dipped into a $551 million contingency fund for $700,000 to cover a change in storm-water treatment required by the state. That’s a trivial amount of money for a project this size. The question is, how pervasive are the problems and how much more could the remedies cost?

The distressing part of this is that it’s not as if the state popped these storm water regs on MWAA by surprise. There has been a literally decade-long build-up to the new requirements, which went into effect in July. Hopefully, the problem announced by MWAA reflects an anecdotal oversight, not a systemwide goof-up. But that anything of this nature happened at all does not exactly inspire confidence.

– JAB

BRT to Nowhere?

West Broad Street: not exactly pedestrian friendly

West Broad Street: not exactly pedestrian friendly

by James A. Bacon

There’s a whole lot of fuzzy thinking going on. People in the Richmond area are so enamored with the prospect of building a Bus Rapid Transit route through the city that they are saying the most astonishing things.

Bus Rapid Transit can be a great idea if done correctly. But it must be done correctly, or it will create a long-term drain on public resources in the City of Richmond and, to a lesser extent, in Henrico County that neither locality can afford.

In the company of Governor Terry McAuliffe, Mayor Dwight Jones and other local luminaries, U.S. Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx announced Saturday that Uncle Sam will provide a $24.9 million grant toward the cost of the $54 million project, which would run along Broad Street from Rocketts Landing to Willow Lawn. (See the Times-Dispatch story here.) Virginia, flush with transportation tax revenue from former Governor Bob McDonnell’s tax increase, will kick in $16.8 million toward the project, while Richmond and Henrico will contribute a total of $8 million. (If that adds up to $49.7 million on your calculator like it does on mine, that leaves more than $4 million unaccounted for.)

Local officials touted BRT as a jobs project. “We’re going to make jobs available to people,” said Jones. The bus would shave a quarter hour travel time along the 7.6-mile route, said Foxx. For a person in poverty or without a car, that could mean “the difference between getting a job or not.” Then came this from Rep. Bobby Scott, D-3rd: “BRT will allow thousands of people in the East End of Richmond to apply for jobs in the West End they wouldn’t even think about applying for before.”

Really? At the eastern terminus, the BRT system will be anchored in Rocketts Landing, an upscale, New Urbanist development along the James River — across the railroad tracks from Fulton Hill, home to thousands of poor and working-class African-Americans. Is this some kind of cruel joke? The lawyers, investment bankers and advertising executives living in Rocketts Landing are not the ones who need access to minimum-wage retail jobs in the Broad Street corridor west of town. For the people who need the jobs, it will be a long, long walk to the BRT station.

Moving west along the proposed route, there aren’t many poor people living in Shockoe Bottom, a commercial area lined by the upscale Tobacco Row condos and apartments on the one side and yuppified apartments for the creative class on the other. As the bus route proceeds through downtown, it does pass through the traditional African-American Jackson Ward neighborhood, but that is rapidly gentrifying as more affluent Richmonders seek proximity to the jobs and amenities of downtown. Further west, the route passes through VCU, but college students hardly constitute a downtrodden class (until they have to start paying back their student loans).

West of downtown, the BRT route skirts past the Carver neighborhood with a couple thousand African-Americans. BRT could provide them better access. But the route then passes Scott’s Addition, an old industrial park that traditionally has had little residential, although it is gentrifying now with the addition of apartments and condos designed for middle-class tastes. Near the western terminus at Willow Lawn, the neighborhoods are middle-class.

For the most part, the only working poor of Richmond’s East End whom the BRT will benefit are those who take a local bus downtown and then change routes. That shaving 15 minutes off their travel time makes the difference between those people having jobs and not having jobs, however, is not a proposition that BRT backers have proved.

The other question that no one seems willing to address — at least not in public speeches — is what happens when the poor East Enders get off the bus on the West side of town. On the plus side, they can walk to their destination on sidewalks — yes, there are sidewalks on this part of Broad Street, unlike farther west. On the downside, the sidewalks are not the kind that actually invite people to walk on them, as can be see in the Google Street View atop this post. The Broad Street stroad is designed for cars, not walking. The sidewalks abut right up to streets with cars traveling 35 miles per hour or faster. Crossing the street can be challenging. Visually, the landscape is barren and inhospitable.

Even more grievous is the fact that Richmond and Henrico need to zone for higher-density, mixed-use, pedestrian-friendly development along the corridor. Zoning for greater density is the easy part. The hard part is coaxing property owners not to build a new generation of the same old low-rise schlock that aligns the corridor. Another issue that neither jurisdiction has answered — not in public statements, at least — how much it will cost to build “complete street” streetscapes that accommodate people and bicycles as well as cars and BRT buses.

I hope I’m wrong, but I can’t escape the feeling that the state, the feds and the localities have gotten ahead of themselves. They’ve got the money, so they’re going to build the project, regardless of whether they have put other elements of a corridor-revitalization plan in place. Current estimates say the BRT will cost $2.7 million a year in ongoing subsidies to operate. That could be a modest price to pay if the project stimulates a transformation of the Broad Street Corridor along the lines of Cleveland’s Healthline Bus Rapid Transit system, which has been cited as an example of what Richmond can accomplish. But that transformation will not occur in a vacuum. The job does not end with construction of the BRT line. It will take decades of follow-up to the community that arises along it.

The Simple, Lovable Sidewalk

sidewalk By Peter Galuszka

Forever humble, the simple sidewalk is becoming an issue in land planning and transportation.

In densely-populated populated urban areas, sidewalks have been a staple of living since the time of the Ancient Greeks. They were classics in the familiar grid plans that marked most American towns in the 19th and early 20th centuries.

It all changed after World War II when thousands of veterans came home with access to cars and cheap mortgages and builders started constructing car-centric neighborhoods. The cookie-cutter plan included big subdivisions with only one or two access points, lots of cul de sacs and long streets and wound around until they emptied into the few access roads.

You couldn’t walk anywhere. The feeling was, with the complicity of such car-centric bodies as the Virginia Department of Transportation, that you didn’t need sidewalks because the kids could play in the cul de sacs and anyone could drive.

This started to change a decade or so ago as pe0ple wanted to walk more to the library, the store or to visit a neighbor. Suburban planners are taking this into consideration and are “encouraging” developers to put in sidewalks.

A couple problems here:

First, although the Tim Kaine administration changed VDOT policy to advocate more intersecting streets in new developments along with sidewalks, the policy has been watered down under pressure from the development industry.

The other problem is that while it is a simple matter to put sidewalks in new projects, retrofitting them in older ones is tough. It is expensive, there are rights of way issues and sometimes the terrain doesn’t lend itself to them. And, when sidewalks are put in, they merely connect with gigantic feeder roads where one might have to walk a half a mile to a stoplight just cross safely, as is the case in one instance in Chesterfield County.

For more, read my recent pieces in the Chesterfield Monthly and Henrico Monthly.

Now VSU Is in Trouble

VSUby James A. Bacon

Enrollment at Virginia State University in Petersburg is down by 550 students this year, and the historically black university is facing a $5.3 million shortfall, including a $2.4 million reduction in state support. “I think Virginia State is in trouble,” Terone B. Green, who serves on the board of visitors told the Times-Dispatch yesterday.

Norfolk State University, Virginia’s other public, historically black university , is facing difficulties as well, while St. Paul’s College, a private college, closed last year.

Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HCBUs), created to educate blacks in an era when they were denied admittance to white institutions, are struggling to redefine themselves in an era of multi-culturalism. Few have significant endowments to fall back on. And they face the same challenges as higher education generally: soaring tuitions that are pricing more and more students out of the market. As an institution that serves blacks, whose incomes have been especially hard hit in recent years, VSU is in an perilous predicament.

The enrollment loss this year will cost VSU $1.6 million in revenue. The loss of enrollment is all the more alarming, given the significant debt burden the university took on to build new residence halls. The university has pinched pennies by closing two old dorms, cutting back on furniture replacement and non-essential maintenance, pruning the full-service dining options on campus, and requiring students to live on-campus. But those changes could boomerang by diminishing the residential experience and depriving students of lower-cost options off campus.

Virginia’s HBCUs are the canary in the coal mine for higher ed. The combination of declining enrollments and heavy debt loads will create problems for other non-elite universities, whatever the ethnic mix of their student body. Washington and Lee University, whose students rank fourth highest in the country for mid-career earnings (see previous post) and which has a large endowment, shouldn’t have much trouble weathering the storm. But VSU doesn’t have a rich alumni base — average midcareer earnings, $71,800 — to tap. And its less affluent student body is especially sensitive to tuition price increases.

The situation likely will get uglier before it gets better.