Category Archives: Science & Technology

The Good and Bad of Exporting LNG

cove point 046By Peter Galuszka

Riding a chunky, balloon-tire bicycle may seem awkward enough, but imagine pedaling in a six-feet-wide concrete tunnel for one mile on the bottom of the Chesapeake Bay in Maryland.

It’s amazing what we Bacon’s Rebellion bloggers do to keep you readers informed, but it’s all in a day’s work — just like sucking in your gut when we read your nasty comments.

I’m here in a plastic white hardhat  and safety gases trying to get used to the sense of confinement as we cycle to the terminal one mile off Dominion Transmission’s Cove Point facility to handle Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG).  Richmond-based Dominion bought the facility in 2002 to import LNG from various global points such as Trinidad and Norway.

The last time a commercial LNG tanker actually showed up to unload, it was October 2011. The fracking revolution and the resulting flood of gas negated the logic of importing. Now Dominion wants to export LNG and has invited me along to see the facility. I wrote about it this Sunday in the Washington Post.

I found this one a hard call. The environmental lobby is against exporting gas, saying it will increase domestic prices and better time should be spent on developing renewables.

I say no to the first and yes to the second. Gas is now about $4 per million BTUs, far down from the $12 or so level of a few years ago. When the fracked flood hit, prices went way down to $2 mmBTU, but my logic is that they’d have to export a lot of gas to make a real difference in pricing.

On the second point, the greens are right. Maryland has a renewable portfolio standard of having 20 percent of electricity generation come from renewables like wind or solar by 2020. It is now about 7 percent. Granted, the gas that Dominion wants to export will go to Japan and India which are outside of the standards (Virginia’s, true to form, are voluntary, of course!), but their $3.8 billion or plan to allow Cove Point to export does absorb resources that could go to developing renewables.

If the project gets approval from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the Department of Energy as Dominion expects by 2014, it is in a position to tap two pipelines carrying Gulf Coast gas in Northern Virginia, which is also the terminus from another pipeline running from the north and Pennsylvania’s Marcellus Shale formation where fracking really has taken off in the past few years.

To be sure, the verdict’s still out on fracking, which involves tough chemicals and lots of high pressure water to shatter geologic formation and get gas and oil unavailable before. It still hasn’t been proven that the chemicals won’t end up in the groundwater somewhere and wells can give off methane which can be flammable and a global warming ingredient. New York State still has a moratorium on fracking. Out West, energy firms are slurping up precious water for fracking while leaving farmers and herders dry.

On the plus side, gas released half of  the CO2 as coal does, doesn’t kill miners and doesn’t result in highly destructive mountaintop removal. Only one person has been killed in a gas-related accident in more than 30 years of operation.

Cove Point has had a checkered history. It was built in the late 1970s during the energy crisis years and the suddenly went dormant when a pricing dispute with Algeria ended imports for a while. It’s been up and down since, with other owners. Dominion has agreements to lock in export shipping prices for 20 years and won’t own the gas which should make it immune from global gas price fluctuations. But before one thinks that exporting from Cove Point is some kind of Brave New World, consider that Dominion has all the contracts with two Asian utilities it needs. It isn’t looking for more customers.

There are 15 other export proposals in the U.S. and old field Senators are urging expediting permit processing. Dominion says that only six or so of the LNG export facilities will actually go through. That has more to do with economics than regulations.

Gearing up for the Smart Car/Road Revolution

by James A. Bacon

The automobile industry is undergoing the greatest technological revolution since… well, probably since the invention of the automobile. Cars are getting “smarter,” as in embedded with more powerful sensors and artificial intelligence, and they are getting more connected — with other cars and with roads, which are getting smarter as well. The way people drive 10 years from now will be radically different from the way they drive today, especially if driverless cars become the norm.

Will Virginia be ready? That’s the question I frequently ask on this blog. I don’t know the answer, but I will say this: If Virginia is prepared a decade from now, it will owe a lot to the Connected Vehicle/Infrastructure University Transportation Center, a research consortium supported by Virginia Tech, the University of Virginia, the Virginia Department of Transportation and Morgan State University.

Last week the Center strutted its stuff in Northern Virginia, putting on a demonstration of emerging connectivity technologies. Dave Forster has the story for the Virginian-Pilot:

To “connect” the car and the motorcycle, they equipped each with a small antenna and a black boxlike device. That allowed them to talk using what’s known as Dedicated Short Range Communications.

“Think of it as robust roadside Wi-Fi,” said Andrew Petersen, the director of technology development at the Virginia Tech Transportation Institute. …

Another device …looked like a large Wi-Fi router. …  That was the roadside part of the equation. It sent alerts to the vehicles as they passed, including one for a work zone and another for a stopped vehicle.

VDOT has installed 43 of those devices on a stretch of Interstate 66 and nearby roads close to the Capital Beltway. For researchers, it’s a real-world lab to test and collect data with a fleet of 12 connected vehicles, including four motorcycles, a semitruck and two SUVs.

Technology connecting cars and smart roads will be widely available to the public within five to ten years, researchers predict. The potential exists to make roads a lot safer, and perhaps to squeeze more capacity out of the existing road network.

Right now, the commonwealth is ramping up to spend billions of dollars to address Virginia’s transportation needs based on the assumption that future roads will be as stupid as today’s roads, that the revolution in automobile/infrastructure technology won’t change much of anything. Why? Because transportation funding is driven by a bureaucratic process in which projects inch through endless review and funding hurdles. Once a project enters this pipeline, rarely is it dropped. Projects conceived today, based upon today’s technology and land-use realities, will be extruded through this process a decade or two from now, when the transportation environment will be totally different. It’s depressing to think how many billions of dollars will be mal-invested.

A critical transportation challenge at this juncture is to figure out how to make that approval process more flexible, allowing future administrations to yank projects that no longer make sense and to accelerate projects that do.

Let’s Jump on the Peer-to-Peer Bandwagon

Vested interests in cities around the country are mobilizing to thwart a new generation of peer-to-peer technologies threatening to disrupt the lodging and transportation industries.

I have documented the difficulties of Uber, the e-hailing service (tap on your smart phone app and an Uber limo comes to pick you up), in Washington, D.C., where it has run afoul of the taxicab cartel. There must be at least a dozen more start-ups coming out of Silicon Valley or Europe — I’ve included YouTube shorts for RelayCars, Airbnb and Flightcar — that allow people to catch rides, share rides, rent someone else’s car or rent someone a room in someone else’s house.

As start-ups, these companies focus their efforts first on major markets like San Francisco, Chicago, New York and Washington. But they often run into regulatory barriers, as described here and here. Not surprisingly, the stakes are really big in those markets and the special interests are really entrenched.

So, here’s the idea. Why don’t second-tier cities (or regions) like Richmond and Hampton Roads make themselves hospitable to the peer-to-peers? Sure, there are local taxi services in each region but they have very small travel-share and they lack the political clout of their big-city counterparts. Why don’t we go out and promise to help work through any regulatory obstacles if these guys commit to establishing a serious presence in our regions.

We could end up with a greater variety of transportation and travel choices, which benefits everyone (except the entrenched competitors). And having more of these Internet-based services active in the region adds a coolness factor that the younger generation might find attractive. Yeah, I know, half or more of these companies will be out of business in two years. So what? The other half might transform their industries. And, as regions, we could send out a signal to the world: We’re open to competition, open to innovation. Check us out.

Another idea from the fertile (some might say febrile) brain of Jim Bacon…

“You Want Maggots With That, Hon?”

Paula DeenBy Peter Galuszka

Free trade capitalists may cheer the proposed $4.7 billion takeover of Virginia icon Smithfield Foods by a Chinese firm, but there is plenty to give pause and the blowback is creating some strange bedfellows.

The major issues are whether one should want Chinese-style management in charge of American corporations given their record on safety and market ethics.

Even arch-conservative Del. Bob Marshall is sounding alarm bells. He wrote in letter to Smithfield’s brass that: “China’s widespread food safety problems are known to American consumers and will engulf Smithfield Foods regardless of the names under which they are sold.”

Among Marshall’s points is that Shuanghui International Holdings Inc., which wants Smithfield, has a record of unsafe practices in its current food operations. He cites press accounts that the firm bought pigs 2011 that contained clenbuterol that was banned in 2002 and that ribs the firm sold last year had maggots and sausage had too much bacteria.

The takeover, which still needs approval from U.S. regulators, took a hit when a few days after its announcement, at least 119 people were killed in a poultry slaughterhouse in Northern China. The Chinese media says that many workers had been locked in the factory, which is a common workplace practice in that country.

In the past two years, some 70,000 Chinese have lost their lives in industrial accidents – a record that make any reasonable person think twice.

To be sure, U.S. firms have had their troubles including some in Virginia. In 2008 and 2009, a salmonella outbreak that killed nine and sickened 666 was traced to filthy operations at a Georgia plant owned by Lynchburg-based Peanut Corporation of America. And, according to the Journal, U.S. firms operating in China may tend to adopt to local practices. In 2011, dust explosions killed four and injured 59 at factories owned by suppliers for Apple Inc.

Shuanhui officials say they want to “learn” about safer practices from Smithfield. And, there could be a case that Western involvement may help the Chinese modernize. Coal mine deaths in 2012 dropped to 1,384, a decrease of nearly 30 percent. Last year, 19 American coal miners died. Of course, China mines nearly three times the amount of coal as China does and a number of U.S. deep mines were slowed or shuttered by market conditions. Not that long ago, however, China was losing up to 5,000 miners every year.

The problem with the Smithfield takeover – if the Chinese executives are to be believed – is that it puts the cart before the horse. If the Chinese own Smithfield their practices and cultural will prevail, no matter how bright a picture they want to paint.

That is something the free traders might want to think about before they follow a Paula Deen recipe calling for Smithfield brand sausage or bacon.

Crunch, Rumble, Shake. Georgia Tech Goes MOOC.

Georgia Tech has a great campus -- which many of its new students will never need to visit.

Georgia Tech has a great campus — which many of its new students will never need to visit.

The tectonic plates of higher education continue to shift and slide. The latest rumble you heard emanated from Atlanta, where the Georgia Institute of Technology recently announced that it would offer an online master’s degree in computer science at less than one-third the cost per credit hour.

Georgia Tech is partnering with Udacity, a company that runs massively open online courses (MOOCs), and AT&T, which is donating $2 million to get the program started, reports The Chronicle of Higher Education. The program is expected to take most students three years to complete and to cost less than $7,000. The university and Udacity will split the tuition revenue 60/40.

“This is not going to be a watered-down degree,” said Georgia Tech Provost Rafael L. Bras. “It’s going to be as hard and at a level of excellence of a regular degree.”

“These students will never have to set foot in a classroom to earn degrees on par with those received in traditional on-campus settings—degrees that will be equally valued by their future employers,” blogged Scott S. Smith, senior vice president for human resources at AT&T, which aims to ensure a stream of qualified job applicants. “By harnessing the power of MOOCs, we can embark on a new era for higher education and for the development of a highly skilled work force.”

Bacon’s bottom line: There are several significant aspects to this story. First, Georgia Tech, a highly reputable academic institution, is willing to stake its reputation on offering an online degree program. We’re not talking about Phoenix University here. Second, AT&T, a Fortune 500 company, hopes to snap up a large number of the program’s graduates. So much for the concern about the value of MOOC credentials. Thirdly and most importantly, the economics of MOOCs are such that Georgia Tech can slash prices by two-thirds.

This experiment should send paroxysms of fear into every established institution of higher education in Virginia — and across the country. Academics can talk all they want about the putative advantages of traditional, face-t0-face education, but we’ll see what students say when they are given the opportunity to cut tuition costs by two-thirds. Higher ed — and in all likelihood, much of K-12 education — will be disrupted as thoroughly as newspapers, music CDs and book retailing have been. The big question for the Old Dominion is this: Will we be in the vanguard, or will we be bringing up the rear?

The move to MOOCs will not proceed glitch-free. Much to its embarrassment, Georgia Tech had to cancel one of its MOOCs, “Fundamentals of Online Education: Planning and Application,” after a series of technical snafus. But the technology will evolve, the online pedagogy will innovate, and the experience will continue to improve.

A sign of the times: Interest in MOOCs is now so fevered that Hybrid Pedagogy, which bills itself as a digital journal of learning, teaching and technology, is launching a MOOC… about MOOCs.

– JAB

Joining the Waze Craze

wazeby James A. Bacon

I had never heard of Waze until I read this morning that the Israeli mobile-map company was coveted by the likes of Google, Apple and Facebook and potentially worth more than $1 billion. But as soon as I visited the Waze website, I realized it was my dream come true — a smart-phone app that not only allows me to find the fastest route to a destination but is capable of adjusting the route based on real time traffic data.

Waze reportedly has 40 million users worldwide, and the numbers are growing exponentially. In a typical networking effect, the more people who download Waze and give it permission to track their movements, the better its traffic-data and the more useful the service…. and the greater the number of people who will download the app. As a 60-year-old family guy, I don’t engage in illicit activities or have any girlfriends on the side, so I’m not paranoid about “big brother” tracking my movements.

Besides taking into account real-time traffic movement, Waze has tools that allow people to report accidents, obstructions, police presence, current gasoline prices and other items of interest to drivers. Frankly, I don’t know if I have the level of interest to delve into that level of detail, but having the option is cool.

I have no earthly idea whether Waze is worth $1 billion, but I do feel certain that Google, Apple and other map-and-routing apps will seek either to acquire or  replicate its functionality. It’s just a matter of time before real-time traffic data affects the driving patterns of everyone.

Showing people where they can find alternate routes for reaching their destination should allow a gridlocked region like Northern Virginia to eke a little extra capacity from its network of roads and highways. But we have to be realistic: When a transportation system is already overloaded and the capacity of every arterial is already maxed out, the potential gains from re-routing routine travel paths is limited.

I am hoping that Waze will be more useful in the Richmond region, where I live and the transportation system has more slack and flexibility built in. I also expect Waze to be helpful when visiting my parents in Norfolk — how backlogged is the Hampton Roads Bridge-Tunnel? Should I take the longer, less congested route through Petersburg and Suffolk?

Waze wave shows how IT is transforming the transportation landscape in ways that no one could have imagined four or five years ago. If anyone purports to know where all this change is taking us, they are deluded. Transportation systems are far too complex and interactions far too unpredictable to say anything with certainty.

In situations like this, I fall back upon Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s maxim that forecasting the future is a fool’s game. Instead of trying to predict the future, we need to make our systems “antifragile” — robust, resilient, flexible, adaptable and capable of exploiting new circumstances.

The Cooch’s Freak Show Dream Team

cooch dream teamBy Peter Galuszka

Ken Cuccinelli just can’t keep away from the bizarre, but perhaps that’s what makes him what he is.

He stages a convention instead of a primary to neuter Bill Bolling. And since a convention is smaller, it draws more GOP hard-righters than  June bugs on a humid night and they succeed in getting Bishop E.W. Jackson and Mark Obenshain selected. They underline the social conservatism that turns millions off and makes Virginia the butt of jokes on late night talk shows.

The Bishop is an even bigger gay basher than Cuccinelli and says that Planned Parenthood is responsible for more fatalities among African-Americans than the Ku Klux Klan. This may be new to a Harvard Law graduate, but women of any color have a legal right to an abortion within limits. The U.S. Supreme Court said so. Look under Roe vs. Wade.

Then there is the attorney general candidate Mark Obenshain of the legacy Republican family. He proposed and withdrew legislation to require any woman in Virginia who miscarries a pregnancy to report it to the police. The idea is so repulsive it is beyond words. A woman may have miscarried to her great sorrow due to medical reasons and then would have to go through the added horror of having to report to the police? Yes, this comes from a cabal that otherwise wants to keep the government out of your lives. Even Josef Stalin wouldn’t think of this.

What does the dream team have to say on the many policy issues facing a troubled state? We have a bunch of lame and poorly thought out tax cuts and Cooch playing hardware store populist. Cuccinelli was against McDonnnell’s mammoth road building tax plan and has since backed away from his opposition.

Is this good news for Terry McAuliffe, who has plenty of issues of his own? Yes, I would think. Cuccinelli doesn’t need the fringe hard right voters. He’s already got them in his pocket. He needs the center and Mark and the Bishop aren’t going to be much help there.

It boggles the mind how Virginia is so schizo. It is attracting hundreds of thousands of newcomers who are running the state’s economy and are dragging it into the 21st century world. Yet the Republicans put up people like this who aren’t dragging us to Virginia’s recent dark past but to medieval times.

Global investors might think twice or three times before investing in this freak show.

What the Clams Know: Warming Waters

atlantic surf clamBy Peter Galuszka

Are warming seas forcing fish to migrate to cooler waters?

That’s the thrust of an intriguing report in Nature magazine as covered in this morning’s Post. The impacts on the seafood industry are already playing out. New England fishermen after cod and haddock report having to move farther north to catch them.

There are impacts in the Mid-Atlantic as well. According to The Post, warmer waters from Delaware to Virginia are pushing Atlantic surf clams to move farther north, and this has resulted in the closure of a clam processing plant in Virginia. Atlantic surf clams are a popular variety used for fried dishes or in chowders

I tried and failed to find out what plant it was. I did find one that was shut down in recent years near Mappsville on Virginia’s Eastern Shore but could not confirm the reason. The firm, Eastern Shore Seafood, was bought by Maryland-based Seawatch International which later shut the plant down.

I spoke with Mike Hutt, executive director of the Virginia Marine Products Board who had seen The Post story but couldn’t confirm details of any related plant closings or the impact of warming waters regionally

It would seem that warmer waters will add further stress to the region’s troubled seafood industry, especially for certain species. I’m not certain how it would affect favorites such as blue crabs that seem to thrive in tepid waters much farther south or oysters, which are struggling make a comeback in Chesapeake Bay. My guess, and I am no expert, is that other prized species such as bluefish and rockfish (striped bass to Northerners) might change their migration patterns because of climate change.

If the Nature research is correct, the fish may be sending us a powerful message that many haven’t figured out yet.

Data Shows Hospital Billing Outrages

Hospital BillBy Peter Galuszka

It’s long been fascinating how Big Hospitals, linked with Medicare, Big Pharma and Big Managed Care, have come up with an extraordinarily convoluted system of setting prices for various hospital procedures.

There is plenty of nonsense about including on this blog about bringing “free market efficiencies” to health care, as if human health is something like a widget or a jet engine fan blade that can be made cheaper and faster if you only got the right consulting firm to hit the right formula and the right software and the right system and the right package and kept the evil government out of it, everything would come up roses.

So to see how stupid and impractical the idea is, I was amused to see the big data base release on hospital cost charges for various procedures by the federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. It covers what was billed and what was paid by hundreds of hospitals for 100 procedures.

Big Health Care did not want the data released because they prefer working in an office with the shutters drawn as they try to game the Medicare system by overbilling and then cutting secretive deals with Big Managed Care over what they’ll really charge for group policy holders and screw the rest.

President Obama had the CMMS release the data to show what a sham setting hospital prices is, although it is doubtful that ObamaCare that goes into full effect next year will change things much. I believe more and more that socialized medicine is the only way to go.

Anyway, here is a short piece I did for Style Weekly that looks at what Richmond area hospitals actually charge for Medicare and what they get:

If you’re a Medicare patient and need a major joint replaced — perhaps a hip — consider the initial cost.

In 2011, HCA Healthcare’s CJW Medical Center billed Medicare $117,477 and got about $12,926 from the government. Virginia Commonwealth University Medical Center billed $55,327 and got $20,308. Bon Secours Memorial Hospital charged $53,195, and got $12,458.

Sound screwy? It is. For all the talk about a free-market system, setting health care prices is anything but.

Instead of open bidding, think of hospital officials meeting behind closed doors, strategizing how much to charge to get reimbursed. Medicare, which usually represents about half of a hospital’s revenues, sets a fixed rate for various procedures. But hospitals can’t by law offer a specific set of prices for just Medicare.

So they factor in other price variables such as what insurance companies might pay on a percentage basis. A big insurer may pay only 20 percent of charges or what they negotiate privately. That automatically jacks up the asking price. Another variable is getting financial aid to help pick up the bill for indigents.

Moreover, higher prices don’t necessarily mean better quality, says Michael Spine, senior vice president for business development at Bon Secours Health System.

What results is an incredibly skewed set of prices for essentially the same procedures. That’s the takeaway from a survey by the federal Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services, which shows what hospitals billed Medicare — and what Medicare paid — for procedures in 100 categories in 2011. The Obama administration released the survey to drum up support for the Affordable Health Care Act, which takes full effect next year.

A glance at the survey shows that CJW Medical Center was by far the priciest on some procedures, but also reimbursed the least.

Take kidney-tract infections, for example. CJW filed $30,552 while MCV asked for $19,819. Yet MCV got more. For some heart-failure cases, HCA billed $40,274 while St. Mary’s Hospital, owned by nonprofit Bon Secours, billed $18,460. And St. Mary’s was reimbursed more. Go figure.

Because insurance companies base policies around what Medicare is billed and will pay for, just about everyone’s affected. Those without insurance could be stuck with the entire bill, although they can receive treatment free or through discounts.

“Hospital charges vary because they reflect the individual hospital’s mission, the patient population it serves and the subsidies necessary to provide essential public services,” says Anne Buckley, a spokeswoman for VCU Medical Center.

Mark Foust, a spokesman for HCA, says a “patient’s medical coverage — rather than charges — is what primarily drives what he or she pays a hospital.”

HCA and VCU help poor patients with their bills through discount or charity programs. So does Bon Secours, says Spine, who adds that releasing the results of such surveys is an important step in moving from “legacy” pricing to something more transparent.

Next on Obama’s list: releasing surveys of physicians’ fees.

Made in Virginia: Boron Nanotubes

boron_nanotubresby James A. Bacon

I’ve long held a pet theory  that Virginia should strive to achieve a leadership position in high-performance fibers. We’ll never wrest semiconductors and software from Silicon Valley, we’ll never replicate the biotech assets of Boston. There’s no point in chasing faddish industries. Just pick a cool but under-appreciated industry to build on and stick with it. No one  region dominates the manufacture of advanced materials, so that field is still wide open, and it happens to be an area where Virginia has some real strengths.

Among the Old Dominion’s assets are two industrial giants, DuPont, the maker of Kevlar, and Honeywell, the manufacturer of Spectra, super-strong fibers spun in a textile process that are found in a wide array of high-performance materials. Another asset is the presence just down Interstate 64 of the Jefferson Lab’s free-electron laser, which has extraordinary abilities to manipulate matter and develop materials with remarkable properties.

At long last, the Lab has given rise to a material with great commercial potential — Fibril Boron Nitride Nanotubes, a polymer having the appearance of cotton but with a molecular backbone 100 times stronger than steel. BNNT Inc., a start-up company that will produce the fiber next door to the Jefferson Lab in Newport News, asserts that its product matches the strength of carbon nanotubes.

Boron and carbon nanotubes are “the strongest two fibers that will ever be made,” states the company website. But the boron nanotubes out-perform their carbon cousins in important respects,  including the ability to hold their strength at higher temperatures.

The ability to spin the nanotubes into a fiber means means the material can be fabricated by well-understood textile manufacturing processes to blend into body armor, solar cells or other applications. And that’s where DuPont and Honeywell come in. They have that expertise just a few miles down the road in Richmond.

The NASA Langley Research Center, which licensed the technology to BNNT, sees the potential to use the material in new types of armor, thin coatings, batteries and aerospace components. Among their advantages in, say, space-faring vessels, the boron nanotubes can be used in temperature environments up to 800 C, they have unusual electrical properties and they shield against neutron and ultraviolet radiation. The product also has biomedical uses in cancer treatments and nerve and bone regeneration, as well as for electrical insulation, fire retardant cabling, and materials for sensors and robots.

“This is the start of a revolution in materials,” says Dennis Bushnell, a NASA engineer who wants to use the nanotubes for space vehicles.  “Just about everything can be made lighter, and hopefully, cheaper. You’re talking about energy savings all over the place.”

“The current world supply of Fibril BNNT is under 10 grams, less than the weight of four pennies, but the demand for this material is tremendous,” said Mike Smith, the company’s chief scientist, according to Virginia Business. “We believe we can sell as much as we make.”

Here’s hoping that Hampton Roads and Richmond one day will become known as the high-performance fiber capital of the world!