Category Archives: Land use & development

The Movement Grows

City living -- not just for liberals anymore.

City living — not just for liberals anymore.

Political and philosophical conservatives in the United States are far more likely to live in rural areas or suburbs than in the city  – and that augurs ill for the conservative movement and for America, observes Michael Hendrix, in the inaugural guest blog post in a new blog, “New Urbs.”

Cities are the centers of wealth creation and cultural influence in the modern world. By concentrating disproportionately in small towns and rural homesteads, conservatives isolate themselves from the institutions that dominate the country. “If conservatives feel like they’re on the outside looking in on culture-making now, just wait a decade or so—it’ll get worse,” Hendrix writes. “Both for our culture’s sake and our own, conservatives should learn to stop worrying and love the city.”

If Hendrix’s contribution is any indication, New Urbs is likely to make a lively contribution to the small but growing ranks of conservatives who advocate development of more compact, urbane, fiscally sustainable communities.

The blog is an initiative of The American Conservative. Explains Associate Editor Jonathan Coppage:

This is an emerging discussion on the right, and we’re excited to take a leading role in pushing it forward. Talk of conservative reform can only get so far before it accounts for the actual ways in which people live. Transit, development, zoning codes all shape our culture, and are ripe for conservative engagement. Conservatives have too often neglected cities to their own disadvantage. We aim to fix that.

Keep it coming!

Update: I just came across by a great essay by Matt Lewis (a denizen of Alexandria) explaining why New Urbanism (an urban design movement which bears much in common with Smart Growth) “isn’t just for liberals.” Conservatives, he argues, should embrace it, too.

– JAB

How Planners Can Rescue Virginia from the Fiscal Abyss

This is a copy of a speech that I presented to the Virginia Chapter of the American Planners Association Monday, with extemporaneous amendments and digressions deleted. — JAB

Thank you very much, it’s a pleasure to be here. Urban planning is a fascinating discipline. As my old friend Ed Risse likes to say, urban planning isn’t rocket science – it’s much more complex. Planners synthesize a wide variety of variables that interact in unpredictable, even chaotic, ways. In my estimation, you don’t get nearly enough respect and appreciation for what you do

OK, enough with the flattery. Let’s get down to business.

toastThis is you. You’re toast. Unless you change the way you do things, you and the local governments across Virginia you represent are totally cooked. … Here’s what I’m going to do today. I’m going to tell you why you’re toast. And then I’m going to tell you how to dig your government out of the fiscal abyss, earning you the love and admiration of your fellow citizens.

Why You’re Toast

old_people2Here’s the first reason you’re in trouble — old people. Or, more precisely, retired government old people. Virginia can’t seem to catch up to its pension obligations. The state says the Virginia Retirement System is on schedule to be fully funded by 2018-2020. But the state’s defines 80% funded as “fully funded,” which leaves a lot of wiggle room. The VRS also assumes that it can generate 7%-per-year annual returns on its $66 billion portfolio. For each 1% it falls short of that assumption, state and local government must make up the difference with $660 million. As long as the Federal Reserve Board pursues a near-zero interest rate policy, depressing investment returns everywhere, that will be exceedingly difficult. A lot of very smart people think 5% or 6% returns are more realistic. In all probability, pension obligations will continue to be a long-term burden on localities.

potholesSecond, the infrastructure Ponzi scheme — that’s Chuck Marohn’s coinage, not mine — is catching up with us. For decades, state and local government built roads and infrastructure, typically with federal assistance, proffers or impact fees with no thought to full life-cycle costs. State and local governments have assumed responsibility for maintaining and replacing this infrastructure. Well, the life cycle done cycled, and the bill is coming due. We’re finding that we built more infrastructure than we can afford to maintain at current tax rates, leaving very little for new construction.

accotinkThird, after years of delay, serious storm water regulations are kicking in. Local governments bear responsibility for fixing broken rivers and streams like Accotink Creek, showed here. (Yeah, that’s a creek. It’s having a bad day.) Best guess: These regs will cost Virginia another $15 billion. But no one really knows. And it may just be the tip of the iceberg. I recently talked to Ellen Dunham-Jones, author of “Retrofitting Suburbia,” and she noted that a lot of the storm water infrastructure that developers built in the ‘50s and ‘60s is crumbling. The developers are long gone. Someone’s going to have to fix that, too. Guess who?

property_taxMeanwhile, the largest source of discretionary local tax dollars – real estate property tax revenues – is stagnating. According to the Demand Institute, residential real estate prices in Virginia will increase only 7% through 2018 – the third worst performance of any state in the nation. Don’t count on magically rising property tax revenues to bail you out.

In fact, the tax situation is worse than it looks. Demand for commercial real estate is dismal, too. Consider what’s happening to the retail sector. We’re going from this…

shopping_centerTo this..

amazon_warehouse

Every Amazon.com distribution center represents dozens if not hundreds of chain stores closing. It means more vacant store fronts, more deserted malls, less new retail development. Continue reading

RAM, Coal and Massive Hypocrisy

The Pikesville RAM clinic in 2011. Photo by Scott Elmquist

The Pikesville RAM clinic in 2011. Photo by Scott Elmquist

By Peter Galuszka

Sure it’s a photo op but more power to him.

Gov. Terry McAuliffe is freshly arrived from the cocktail and canape circuit in Europe on a trade mission and is quickly heading out to the rugged and impoverished coal country of Wise County.

There, he, Attorney General Mark Herring and Health and Human Resources Secretary William A. Hazel will participate in a free clinic to help the mountain poor get free health care. The political opportunity is simple: Many of the 1,000 or more who will be attending the Remote Area Medical clinic are exactly the kind of people getting screwed over by the General Assembly’s failure to expand Medicaid to 400,000 low income Virginians.

RAM makes its Wise run every summer and people line up often in the wee morning hours to get a free medical and dental checkup. For many, it’s the only health care they get all year unless it’s an emergency. Another problem: Distances are great in the remote mountains and hospitals can be an hour away.

Mind you, this is Coal Country, the supposedly rich area upon which Barack Obama is waging war and harming local people by not going along with coal executives’ demands on environmental disasters such as mountaintop removal, keeping deep mine safety standards light and avoiding carbon dioxide rules.

The big question, of course,  is why if the land is so rich in fossil fuel, are the people so poor and in need of free medical care? It’s been this way for 150 years. And now, coal’s demise got underway in Southwest Virginia in 1991 when employment peaked at about 11,000. It is now at 4,000 or less. It’s getting worse, not better.

In June 2011, by coincidence, I happened along a RAM free clinic in Pikesville, Ky., not that far from Wise when I was researching my book, “Thunder on the Mountain: Death at Massey and the Dirty Secrets Behind Big Coal.” My photographer Scott Elmquist and I spotted the clinic at a high school. There must have been hundreds of people there –  some of whom told me they had been waiting since 1:30 a.m. It was about 8:30 a.m.

Attending them were 120 medical and dental personnel from the U.S. Public Health Service. They were dressed in U.S. Navy black, grey and blue colored fatigues. The University of Louisville had sent in about 80 dental chairs.

Poverty in Pike County had been running about 27 percent, despite the much-touted riches of coal. Pike is Kentucky’s biggest coal producer.

One man I spoke with said he had a job as a security guard, but he doesn’t qualify for regular Medicaid and can’t afford a commercial plan. In other words, had I interviewed him more recently and had he been a Virginian, he would have been lost through the cracks of Medicaid expansion. Alas, he’s in luck. In 2013, Kentucky opted for a “marketplace” expansion system where federal funds would be used to help lower income buy health plans through private carriers.

Lucky the man isn’t from here. The marketplace plan is exactly the kind that McAuliffe has proposed and exactly the one that stubborn Republicans such as Bill Howell in the General Assembly are throttling. The feds would pick up the bill for expanding Medicaid to 400,000 needy Virginians, at least initially.

Yet another irony. Expanded medical benefits are available just across an invisible border in two states whose coalfield residents somehow never got the great benefits of King Coal.

More Defense Cuts Plague Virginia

Special deliveryBy Peter Galuszka

Virginia continues to see painful military spending cuts in the aftermath of the years’- long U.S. intervention in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Among the latest news is that the Army may cut 3,600 jobs at Ft. Lee, ironically the site of a recent and large expansion, by 2020. That could result in a decline of 9,000 residents near Petersburg which is close to  the base.

Plus, the Air Force plans on cutting 742 positions at its Air Combat Command headquarters at Langley Air Force Base in Hampton although some of the positions are already vacant and won’t be filled.

These are just some of the changes that are affecting Virginia, which is the No. 2 defense industry state after California. Many of the cuts involve active duty personnel whose vacancies are not being filled or are being asked to take early retirement.

Defense industry jobs are likewise taking cuts. A report by the National Association of Manufacturers states that in 2014, California will lose the most military-related jobs (148,400) followed by Virginia (114,900) and then Texas (109,000). Maryland will lose 40,200 jobs, the report says.

Many of the jobs are in heavy manufacturing, such as aerospace and ship building, and search and navigational services, but general business and other services will also be affected.

The news is especially hard on Petersburg and nearby Ft. Lee which just a few years ago enjoyed a major boost after a Base and Realignment and Closure round consolidated many multi-service logistics and supply functions. The influx of thousands of soldiers, contractors and their families boosted the city and surrounding areas.

Hampton, the location of Langley Air Force Base, doesn’t seem to be in store for such heavy impacts since the cuts involve some jobs already being lost to attrition. Other bases and areas hurt by the Air Force cuts include Washington, D.C.; San Antonio; Texas; Dayton, Ohio; and Belleville, Illinois.

Newport News Shipbuilding, now owned by Huntington Ingalls Industries, could lose a deal to build one submarine and might delay another to build as Ford class nuclear attack carrier, if automatic defense budget cuts return in 2016. Another potential hit: refueling the nuclear-powered carrier George Washington but may mothball the ship if the budget cuts kick in. About 24,000 people work at Newport News Shipbuilding, making it the largest private employer in the state.

Besides the Washington area, Hampton Roads is greatly dependent upon defense spending. Some 47 percent of the regional economy depends on it. Anticipating more defense cuts, former Gov. Robert F. McDonnell formed a commission to come up with ideas before he left office this year. One of them is to be pro-active and recommend cuts of its liking before the federal government acts.

One of its recommendations cuts both ways on environmental issues. It recommends against offshore oil and gas drilling in watery areas where the military trains, thus making them available over the long term. It likewise recommends against wind turbines in the same areas.

These are interesting, but very difficult choices.

Should Virginia Beach Subsidize a New Arena?

Image credit: ESG Companies

by James A. Bacon

United States Management (USM), a Virginia Beach development company, wants to build a $200 million, 18,000-seat arena and sports complex adjacent to the city’s convention center, which, it claims, will create jobs, boost the local tourism industry, bolster city property values and bring events to Hampton Roads that enhance the regional quality of life. Backed by $150 million in financing from Chinese interests, the company would spend $200 million of its own money.

All it will take from the City of Virginia Beach is a $52.7 million contribution to infrastructure costs for road improvements, utilities and parking. … Plus $26 million in optional streetscape improvements and additional road improvements…. Plus $7 million yearly in tax revenue generated by the project to pay down USM’s debt.

This project has consumed the attention of Hampton Roads much in the way that the Shockoe Bottom baseball stadium has absorbed Richmond residents. The arena is back in the local news thanks to the release of a consultant report detailing the commitment the city would have to make under the terms of the deal proposed by USM. That commitment, though large, is significantly smaller than called for in a proposal made and rejected earlier in the year, which makes it look good by comparison. Virginia Beach Mayor Will Sessoms is supportive of the project, although some City Council members have expressed concern about the public cost.

If Hampton Roads residents wonder why their region has been such an economic laggard in the current business cycle, the fact that Virginia Beach is debating how much to subsidize a sports arena should tell you all you need to know. Sessoms had shown a penchant for grandiose public projects — extending light rail from Norfolk to the Virginia Beach resort area is another — that require the expenditure of massive public funds for highly speculative benefits. Rather than focusing resources on making Virginia’s largest city more competitive in a technology-intensive knowledge economy, the mayor is doubling down on the city’s past as a tourism destination – a second-tier tourism destination, at that.

It is undoubtedly true that the proposed arena, which could host everything from a pro basketball team to monster truck rallies, would stimulate economic activity. In a 2012 study, economist and former Old Dominion University James V. Koch estimated that an arena would generate $98 million in revenue throughout Hampton Roads, two thirds of it in Virginia Beach itself. (Two critical caveats: Koch’s study assumed that the arena would attract an NBA team that would play regular games there, and it included a multiplier effect as initial spending rippled through the economy.)

As Koch made clear in his study, he drew no conclusions regarding whether the arena should be built or how it should be financed. Nor did he, nor anyone else that I have been able to find, analyze the city’s Return on Investment of public dollars. Nor did he or anyone else conduct a risk analysis of what could go wrong, and what exposure the city would have, if, say, a recession came along and the wonderful assumptions behind the economic forecasts fell short. Risk analysis, as citizens of Southeastern Virginia should have learned from the U.S. 460 fiasco, is critical. Finally, I have seen no analysis of what alternative uses Virginia Beach might have for $53 million to $79 million.

Personally, I can think of many other ways for Virginia Beach to invest sums of that magnitude, although none would be as flashy as a new arena. The city could invest in creating islands of mixed-use, higher-density urbanism that bring in far more taxes, with fewer offsetting spending liabilities, than traditional suburban-style development. The city could invest in “smart cities” technologies that could cut energy expenditures, reduce water consumption and do a better job of managing traffic. The city could invest in integrating online learning into the curriculum of Virginia Beach schools. If city officials were feeling especially adventurous, they could foster the creation of innovation districts that would stimulate sustainable, entrepreneurial-based economic growth. Most of those priorities, however, require a decidedly un-sexy, stick-to-the-basics approach in which government focuses on those things that government can do well while leaving risky development schemes to the private sector. Alas, stick-to-the-basics doesn’t garner headlines or add to the aura of activist mayors.

Local governments in Virginia face chronic fiscal challenges. Virginia Beach doesn’t have a lot of money to waste. City officials need to show discipline in allocating tens of millions in discretionary spending. Once they commit to spending that money, they foreclose alternatives that could offer bigger payoffs at less risk.

Finally, Some Sense on Climate Change

mowbray archBy Peter Galuszka

Pulling the state’s head out of the sand, Gov. Terry McAuliffe has reversed his predecessor’s policy on addressing climate change.

He has reestablished a 35-member panel to see what the state can do to deal with what many scientists believe is an impending crisis. McAuliffe revived the panel first created by Democratic Gov. Tim Kaine and then left to wither away by former Republican Gov. Robert McDonnell.

Ironically, the new panel includes Michael Mann, a former University of Virginia climatologist who was the target of bitter and petty attacks by former arch-conservative Atty. Gen. Kenneth Cuccinelli over his view that mankind was responsible for carbon dioxide-driven greenhouse gases that are helping warm up the earth, melt polar ice caps and potentially flood huge sections of coastal cities such as Norfolk.

It’s about time that Virginia rejoined the 21st Century. McDonnell took the state backwards on environmental issues by gutting commissions such as this one and creating others that were devoid of ecological viewpoints and stacked with members of the fossil fuel industry and utility executives.

McAuliffe’s new commission has utility people like Dominion Virginia Power President Robert M. Blue and Bernice McIntyre of Washington Gas Light Company. But it is also well stocked with green types such as the Sierra Club, the Chesapeake Bay Foundation and the Southern Environmental Law Center whose views were pretty much in the wilderness during the McDonnell term.

It is finally time for the state to realize that climate change is real. Study after study shows that the state is vulnerable – from agricultural impacts brought on by different weather patterns to rising water in coastal areas. One area worth study is doing more to speed the switch to renewable energy sources like solar and wind.

McDonnell had pushed a policy that would make Virginia “the Energy Capital of the East Coast,” but the effort excluded renewables in favor of offshore oil and gas companies, nuclear power and coal.

Curiously, McAuliffe also favors such endeavors as offshore petroleum development. That raises questions in the face of massive fracking onshore for natural gas and the revolution it has sparked. Perhaps the new commission can provide some guidance.

It is refreshing that Virginia is finally emerging from the intellectual horse blinders that kept the debate stuck in Benghazi-style debates over emails at a British university or trying, unsuccessfully, as Cuccinelli did, to harass scientists globally over a ridiculous claim that Michael Mann had defrauded Virginia taxpayers by asserting what most climatologists do – that climate change is real and mankind is a reason for it.

Finally. . .

Denying Truth on the Outer Banks

Sun Realty

Sun Realty

By Peter Galuszka

North Carolina’s Outer Banks have always been a touchstone for me – in as much as anyone can associate permanence with sandy islands being perpetually tossed  around by tremendous wind and water forces.

The Banks and I go back to 1954 and Hurricane Hazel when I was an infant. They mark many parts of my life. So, I read with great interest The Washington Post story by Lori Montgomery about how real estate officials in Dare County and other coastal parts of North Carolina are trying to alter clear-cut scientific projections about how deeply the islands will be under water by 2100.

State officials say that the ocean should rise 39 inches by the end of the century. This would mean that 8,500 structures worth $1.4 billion would be useless. Naturally, this has upset the real estate industry which is pushing for a new projection of an 8-inch rise 30 years from now. Think of it like a photo in a rental brochure. You don’t choose shots of dark and stormy days. The skies must be blue.

Ditto science. The insanity is that so many still don’t believe what is going on with climate change and carbon dioxide pollution. Over the past several years, Virginians, many of whom vacation on the Outer Banks, endured and paid for former Atty. Gen. Kenneth Cuccinelli’s legal attacks against a former University of Virginia climatologist who linked global warming to human activity. The assaults went nowhere.

Instead of addressing such profoundly transitory events, too many in the region say it isn’t so or pick away at what is really happening as we speak. And as Mother Jones magazine points out, it isn’t because weather change deniers, usually conservatives, don’t understand science.

The Outer Banks are an extreme example because of their incredible fragility. Anyone with even a cursory understanding of the islands knows that they are completely under the thumb because they are where two major ocean currents meet.

The only reason Hatteras has developed at all is the Bonner Bridge, an ill-conceived, 51-year-old span over Oregon Inlet so decrepit that it is often closed for repairs. Replacing it has been constantly delayed by the lack of funding and the threat of lawsuits. The federal government has been complicit for decades by spending at least hundreds of millions on sand replenishment programs or offering flood insurance coverage.

About 15 miles south of the bridge is Rodanthe, a flyspeck village just south of Pea Island National Wildlife Refuse. It is at the point of the Banks that sticks out farthest into the Atlantic and is under the strongest attack by ocean currents and storms. Route 12, the only way to evacuate by car when a hurricane comes, is on a narrow spit of constantly shifting sand trapped between the ocean and Pamlico Sound.

I’ve been going to Rodanthe for years. Starting in the 1980s, friends and I would pool our money and  rent one of the big beach houses. We have been constantly amazed how the distance between the structures and the surf is disappearing. One favorite spot was “Serendipity,” a skinny, tall beach house that we rented perhaps twice and featured fantastic views from the top-floor bar.

It was dressed up as a bed and breakfast in the movie ”Nights At Rodanthe,” a 2008 weeper starring Richard Gere and Diane Lane. The film was panned and the house was equally threatened. In fact, the next year, the owner had the whole thing placed on a truck and moved nearly a mile down the coast where there’s a little more sand.

More hurricanes followed, cutting a new inlet a few miles into Pea Island and its watery bird impoundments. The oceanfront houses we used to rent are in trouble. The ones across Route 12 now have dramatic new views.  A small, new bridge spans the inlet.

One can argue that building on the Banks is madness, global warming or not. There’s a lot of truth to this. But rising ocean water is truly going to accelerate the changes no matter how hard politicians or North Carolina’s real estate industry say it isn’t so.

Coming up: Car-Lite Burbs

David Grannis

David Grannis

A California developer is teaming with Daimler AG to bring buses, shuttles and ride sharing to an Orange County community — with no government subsidies.

by James A. Bacon

Rancho Mission Viejo south of Los Angeles is developing a 23,000-acre planned development with all the amenities one would expect from an affluent California community: parks, hiking/biking trails, yoga and fitness studios, community gardens and a hacienda-style clubhouse. But the biggest selling proposition may be the potential to slash living expenses by thousands of dollars yearly by living a car-lite lifestyle.

Working in partnership with Daimler AG’s Business Innovation group, Rancho Mission Viejo will introduce to its Ladera Ranch community in July a service that provides residents access to scooters, cars, circulator buses, destination shuttles, Car2Share carpooling and other bundled transportation services, all accessible through a smartphone app. Those services will be provided as well to the neighboring Sendero project, with an expected 14,000 new residents and workers in five million square feet of commercial space, now under development.

David Grannis, a partner with pointC Partners, who is leading the initiative for the developer, says the goal is to cut the cost of mobility in half from the $14,000 or more it takes to own and operate an automobile today in south Orange County, California. Households in the target demographic typically own two or three cars. “I’m not telling you to get out of your car,” he told attendees of the 2014 LOCUS conference in Washington, D.C., earlier this month. “I’m telling you to get out of your third car.”

If successful, the transportation-as-a-subscriber-service initiative could transform the economics of automobile transportation. Daimler, parent company of Mercedes Benz, could evolve from a company that primarily manufactures and sells automobiles into a company that provides mobility services. Other auto companies that are exploring similar strategies could follow suit. The new business model could slash the cost of mobility for Americans, improving their standard of living, while shifting people out of single-occupancy automobiles into buses, vans and other shared-ridership modes, thus burning less gasoline and releasing less greenhouse gas.

Experience has shown that moral suasion — it’s good for the environment — doesn’t work very well, Grannis says. When Rancho Mission Viejo offered the option of environmentally beneficial solar roofs or granite counter tops, 97% of buyers selected the granite counter tops — until the recession came along and people appreciated the fact that photovoltaic roofs could reduce their energy bills. He sees the mobility service the same way. A handful of people will go for it because it’s the right thing to do; the rest will embrace it because it saves them thousands of dollars per year. “It’s economics, all economics.”

The Ladera community in Rancho Mission Viejo

The Ladera community in Rancho Mission Viejo

Rancho Mission Viejo’s multimillion-dollar experiment, says Grannis, responds to confluence of environmental, regulatory and demographic trends.

On the regulatory front, California has mandated massive cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, which will require major shifts in transportation habits and development patterns. It is all but illegal to continue building the kind of low-density suburban communities associated with heavy automobile use and high GHG emissions. At present, 80% of Ladera Ranch residents drive alone to work, most of them to destinations outside the community. None of them bicycle or ride transit to work. To meet regulatory goals, the developer has to find a way to reduce the solo commute.

Another trend is demographic. Rancho Mission Viejo is focused mainly on Baby Boomers and Millennials. Boomers are selling the houses they lived in when raising families. As they age and find it more difficult to drive, Boomers are concerned about losing their mobility. They also see walkability as a fitness imperative. They want communities where they can get around on foot. Buses, vans, bikes and scooters complement walkable neighborhoods very nicely. Meanwhile, Millennials are less enamored with car ownership than previous generations. If they can find a less expensive mode of transportation, they will gladly take it.

People still want to live in well-designed communities such as Rancho Mission Viejo where they enjoy access to good schools, open space and lots of healthy activities, says Grannis. Automobile ownership is superfluous. What matters is mobility and access. And that’s what the venture with Daimler will provide them.

Transportation-as-a-service represents the next great evolution of the automobile industry. Grannis equates the innovation in importance to Henry Ford’s assembly line that introduced cheap cars and to the financing revolutions that made it easier for people to buy and lease cars. The next big step will be to eliminate much of the cost and risk associated with auto ownership.

A necessary prerequisite for making transportation-as-a-service work is to design walkable communities. Rancho Mission Viejo is planning compact residential neighborhoods with sidewalks and commercial districts with complete streets.  The next step is pitching the service to a population not accustomed to it by making it as easy as consulting your smart phone to reserve a ride, and by providing incentives, offering rewards and making it fun. Continue reading

More Evidence of Virginia’s Urban Renaissance

urban_growth

Urban geographer Richard Florida has published a map comparing population growth of “primary cities” (core jurisdictions) with growth in outlying localities in the United States’ 51 largest metropolitan regions. The map at left, extracted from Florida’s map published in CityLab, hones in on the metropolitan regions in the northeastern quadrant of the country. The Washington and Richmond metros were among the 19 where primary cities grew faster than their suburbs between 2012 and 2013. (To see the national map, click here.)

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While Hampton Roads did not number among the metros showing stronger city growth, city growth fall short of suburban growth by a narrow margin. Without doubt, 2013 was the year of the city for Virginia’s major metros.

 – JAB

Must Read of the Day: Complex Cities

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Complicated, not complex

As former Bacon’s Rebellion contributor EM Risse likes to say, urban planning isn’t rocket science — it’s a lot more complex. Ed’s quip came to mind when reading the latest post by Charles Marohn on the Strong Towns blog. The thrust of Chuck’s post is that local government leaders act as if towns, cities and counties are complicated systems — similar to a Swiss watch with a lot of moving parts that interact in a complicated but an ordered and predictable way. But local governments and the economies and societies in which they are embedded are complex systems. The various parts interact with often ill-understood feedback loops. Complex systems have emergent properties. Local government actions often have unpredictable results. It’s an important essay. I urge you to read it.