Category Archives: Entitlements

The Cooch’s Freak Show Dream Team

cooch dream teamBy Peter Galuszka

Ken Cuccinelli just can’t keep away from the bizarre, but perhaps that’s what makes him what he is.

He stages a convention instead of a primary to neuter Bill Bolling. And since a convention is smaller, it draws more GOP hard-righters than  June bugs on a humid night and they succeed in getting Bishop E.W. Jackson and Mark Obenshain selected. They underline the social conservatism that turns millions off and makes Virginia the butt of jokes on late night talk shows.

The Bishop is an even bigger gay basher than Cuccinelli and says that Planned Parenthood is responsible for more fatalities among African-Americans than the Ku Klux Klan. This may be new to a Harvard Law graduate, but women of any color have a legal right to an abortion within limits. The U.S. Supreme Court said so. Look under Roe vs. Wade.

Then there is the attorney general candidate Mark Obenshain of the legacy Republican family. He proposed and withdrew legislation to require any woman in Virginia who miscarries a pregnancy to report it to the police. The idea is so repulsive it is beyond words. A woman may have miscarried to her great sorrow due to medical reasons and then would have to go through the added horror of having to report to the police? Yes, this comes from a cabal that otherwise wants to keep the government out of your lives. Even Josef Stalin wouldn’t think of this.

What does the dream team have to say on the many policy issues facing a troubled state? We have a bunch of lame and poorly thought out tax cuts and Cooch playing hardware store populist. Cuccinelli was against McDonnnell’s mammoth road building tax plan and has since backed away from his opposition.

Is this good news for Terry McAuliffe, who has plenty of issues of his own? Yes, I would think. Cuccinelli doesn’t need the fringe hard right voters. He’s already got them in his pocket. He needs the center and Mark and the Bishop aren’t going to be much help there.

It boggles the mind how Virginia is so schizo. It is attracting hundreds of thousands of newcomers who are running the state’s economy and are dragging it into the 21st century world. Yet the Republicans put up people like this who aren’t dragging us to Virginia’s recent dark past but to medieval times.

Global investors might think twice or three times before investing in this freak show.

Do Racial Set-Aside Programs Create Opportunities for Blacks? It Appears They Do.

discrimination

The philosophical issue: Can discriminating in favor of African-Americans today recompense for discrimination against African-Americans in the past?

Government set-aside programs for minorities have had a positive impact on the rate of business formation by African-Americans, conclude the authors of a new study, “Impact of City Contracting Set-Asides on Black Self-Employment and Employment,” published by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Write the authors: “Black business ownership rates increased significantly after program initiation, with the black-white self-employment gap falling by three percentage points (25-40 percent). ”

The white-black employment gap closed as well. Black gains were concentrated in industries affected by the set-asides and accrued primarily to better educated blacks. “It appears that city programs led to a reallocation of self-employment from white to black men.”

Bacon’s bottom line: As a matter of philosophical principle, I dislike programs that divvy up the spoils of government spending by race. Such programs make a mockery of creating a color-blind society. As a practical matter, however, I acknowledge the history of discrimination against African-Americans and I see the logic (even if I disagree with it) of enacting policies to compensate for past injustice. The value of this study is that it demonstrates that set-side policies actually do accomplish what they set out to do (something you can’t take for granted), which is increase business and employment opportunities for African-Americans.

A couple more observations. First, it appears from this study that the primary beneficiaries are educated African-Americans, who, we can assume, tend to be better off than their less-educated brethren. Therefore, while set-aside programs arguably may comprise a rough form of racial justice, they seem less likely to constitute an effective anti-poverty program.

Second, the article does not address the effect of set-asides for other minorities who have suffered no history of discrimination at all, at least not in Virginia. In the Old Dominion, for instance, many winners of minority contracts are Hispanic or Asian — and many of them are immigrants! It is exceedingly difficult to argue that immigrant Hispanics and Asians living in Virginia today have suffered from discrimination in access to government contracts. Indeed, it would be interesting to know the extent to which these new-comer minorities have displaced African-Americans in the competition for racial spoils.

McAuliffe: Can a Schmoozer Transform?

By Peter Galuszka

On Easter Sunday, I was driving in a cold rain to Charlottesville for a family event. My cell phone started beeping with messages from Democratic gubernatorial hopeful Terry McAuliffe.

He said he was on his way to his own family brunch but wanted to tap me for $5. I got similar messages from two other staffers.

Why bother me at Easter? Political analyst Larry Sabato wondered the same thing. In a tweet that day he complained about finding “11 obnoxious messages for $$$. Now I know the answer to the age old Q; Is nothing sacred?”

And that may be McAuliffe’s biggest problem as he faces arch-conservative Ken Cuccinelli in the off-year governor’s race. In my profile of him in Style Weekly, I note that McAuliffe is trying to rein in an expansive personality that has made him a top political schmoozer and fundraiser for Democrats from Jimmy Carter to Bill and Hillary Clinton.

A decades’ long political operative who has never been in elected office, he can be bombastic and smooth, as his recent dealings with GreenTech Automotive shows. He flirted with Virginia for a hybrid  car plant before going to Mississippi. He has been accused of somehow using the car plant to win special visas for foreign workers and maybe misleading the Virginia Economic Development Partnership about his intentions in the Old Dominion.

Meanwhile, he must overcome some of his misunderstandings of traditional Virginia thinking. However, it’s probably a good thing that he’s going to skip the Shad Planking in Wakefield tonight with its Confederate flags where Cuccinelli will be keynote speaker.

While polls are about 50-50 in the race, McAuliffe’s fundraising prowess has shown brightly. In the first quarter, he raised more than $5 million — more than double the take of Cuccinelli, who has hamstrung by not being allowed raise money during the General Assembly session because of his position as Attorney General. Read on…

(Also, here as a Q&A with McAuliffe)

McDonnell Lays Out Principles for Medicaid Reform

by James A. Bacon

Predictably, Governor Bob McDonnell is taking flak for refusing to agree to an expansion of Virginia’s Medicaid program without significant assurances and concessions from the Obama administration. What I haven’t seen yet is a critique of his reasons for doing so. Name calling and disparaging motives doesn’t count. In a letter sent yesterday to Kathleen Sebelius, secretary of Health and Human Services, he made a persuasive case. If critics want to bash McDonnell, let them address the substantive issues.

The current Medicaid plan consumes 21% of Virginia’s General Fund budget, up from 5% three decades ago, the governor wrote. “This explosive 1600% growth in Medicaid spending in the past 3 decades, combined with the federal government’s unsustainable nearly $17 trillion national debt, makes Medicaid expansion cost prohibitive.”

It is unwise to expand Medicaid without “dramatic verifiable cost saving reforms of the program at the state and federal level,” McDonnell said. Virginia cannot proceed without statutory and regulatory flexibility and waivers, private-sector cost containment reforms and other tools to address Medicaid spending growth. In an attachment to the letter, the governor advanced five “tenets” of Medicaid reform.

  • Deliver all Medicaid services through an efficient, market-based delivery system. That means implementing a commercial-like benefit package for adult Medicaid beneficiaries, enrolling more people in managed care programs, and tightening enrollment standards and provider qualifications.
  • Establish provisions to reduce financial burdens to Virginia. This language is totally justified, although it might be a tad difficult for the Obama administration to swallow: “Obtain reasonable assurance from the federal government that a Virginia Medicaid expansion will not contribute to a future increase in the national debt. Virginia cannot participate in an expansion that will increase the financial burden on future generations of Americans.” McDonnell also wants “reasonable assurance” that the federal government will “implement a long-term path to financial solvency that can cover the ongoing cost of an expansion.”
  • Maximize tools currently available to the commonwealth … to achieve administrative efficiency. The key words here are “streamline, “reform” and “consolidate administrative authority.”
  • Achieve greater flexibility by pressing Congress to amend the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Virginia wants to drive behavior through value-based purchasing and by restructuring benefit and service-delivery design.
  • Implement broad-based, long-term, statewide reform. McDonnell wants to reform Virginia’s health-care system to reduce the cost of all medical care and long-term care services, reducing Virginia’s Medicaid expenditures while strengthening Virginia’s entire healthcare market.

Bacon’s bottom line: The devil is in the details, of course, but McDonnell is absolutely on the right track. This letter almost persuades me to forgive him for pushing his transportation-funding bill, which doesn’t reform anything (except how we raise money) about the way we approach transportation and land use. If he would put as much political capital behind health care reform as he did behind his transportation bill, he just might redeem himself among conservatives.

Calvinists, Libertines and the Medicaid Debate

John Calvin — lousy fashion sense, but otherwise misunderstood.

by James A. Bacon

So, we learn from Peter G. in the previous post that conservatives who oppose the willy-nilly expansion of Medicaid in Virginia are either preppies who dress like they just walked off the plantation after giving the darkies a good hard whipping or are hard-right cheapskates with a Calvinist bent. This is essentially the same message of a Washington Post article today, though without the inflammatory rhetoric.

Believe it or not, conservatives are not immune to the sufferings of the poor. Conservatives would like to see poor people enjoy the benefits of health care insurance. But unlike liberals, conservatives are concerned with results. The United States has fought a 60-year war on poverty, but we seem to be the only ones who noticed that poverty won. Liberals, for whom moral posturing and do-goodism appear to be ends in themselves, appear to have missed the fact that the expenditure of trillions of dollars has created a sub-culture of poverty that is even more deeply entrenched and more dependent upon government largess than ever. Of course, many liberals don’t have a problem with dependency — Americans who rely upon government spending are reliable voters for liberal politicians.

But conservatives, as I said, are interested in real-world results and we fret about unintended consequences. We worry what will happen if Virginia expands the number of people dependent upon the government, either through Medicaid or through federally funded health care exchanges. We worry what will happen to them when the federal government can no longer support its monstrous debt and can no longer fulfill its promises. Who will care for the wards and dependents of the leviathan state when federal finances collapse? How will the poor cope when the rug has been pulled out from under them? How much misery will ensue?

Liberals don’t worry about such scenarios because they don’t believe they will happen. To their mind, fears of a fiscal apocalypse are nothing but scare mongering by hard-hearted conservatives who want to dismantle the social safety net. All I can do is remind readers of a few facts. The national debt is $16.5 trillion a year and growing by close to $1 trillion a year. And that’s during a period of record-low interest rates. Should interest rates ever return to their long-term norms of 4% to 5%, interest on the national debt will balloon by some $600 billion a year as the debt rolls over — far more than we can ever cut spending or raise through taxes. If that happens, we will enter a vicious cycle from which we cannot recover.

The only way interest rates won’t rise is if economic growth remains tepid, creating little demand for credit and debt. If that happens, economic growth will fall below the long-term budget forecasts, which means that tax revenues will fall chronically short… and deficits will run higher than projected. And, oh, by the way, none of the long-term budget forecasts allow for the possibility of another recession over the next 10 years, which is patently absurd. Current budget forecasts, as worrisome as they are, are pure fantasy.

To Peter’s mind, the act of committing elementary mathematics constitutes a form of Calvinism. To my mind, the liberal inability to see past the day after tomorrow constitutes spend-thrift libertinism. I believe strongly that within our lifetimes, the moral bankruptcy of welfare state liberalism will be plain for all to see. The only question is whether liberals will be held to account for all the lives they destroyed.

“I Got Mine from Mah Daddy!”

By Peter Galuszka

One of the stranger attributes of Virginia’s conservatives is their cheesy, Calvinist streak.

Their world view tends to celebrate the rich and powerful, regardless of whether the individual worked diligently and creatively to generate the wealth or if it was inherited. For example, one man (not a Virginian) whom I respect described the attitudes of the old Richmond elite this way: “I got mine from mah Daddy and to hell with everybody else!”

This form of self-entitlement stretches into making moral judgments. If someone is poor and perhaps sick, then it is their fault. They have not punished themselves enough. They have not worked hard enough. If you give them too much, they will just stay that way.

Which brings me to a Washington Post editorial this morning that really rang true. It notes that Gov. Robert F. McDonnell had to be bludgeoned by Democrats into expanding Medicaid for the poor in order to get his convoluted but needed tax hikes to help save the state’s road system.

Why was this quid pro quo necessary? Good question.

Virginia, the Post notes, is a top 10 state for wealth but is No. 48 in per capita spending on Medicaid which protects needy, low income people who can’t afford health insurance. ObamaCare would let the states expand coverage to 400,000 Virginians who need help. The feds will pick up the tab for the first three years and 90 percent to 2020.  Later, it’s a half-half split. Republican governors in Arizona, Florida, Michigan and Ohio have gone along with the expansion, seeing little value in denying the needy.

So why was McDonnell holding his nose?

Because hard right conservatives with a Calvinist streak have too much power, that’s why. McDonnell is paying a price for his tax hikes on roads. The Conservative Political Action Conference, for instance, is not inviting him to their upcoming confab. Arch rival and conservative Ken Cuccinelli is invited.

At the end of the day, who cares what the hard-right thinks? The point is to help the poor, especially when a rich state like Virginia can help.

As conservatives gnash their teeth after their November drubbing and try to find a new bearing point (or drift as the case may be), they need to come to a better idea of compassion.

It might not go down well with the Baconauts and Boomergeddons, but flinty Calvinism and strict dogma on lifestyles, income levels and immigration are not the future. Just ask the millions of Hispanic-Americans in this country who did not exactly support Mitt Romney.

What’s needed in this state is more compassion, not more lectures on how to be successful from the right wing chattering upper classes who probably got their’s from Daddy and Mommy anyway.

The Lessons of the 2013 General Assembly

By Peter Galuszka

If there’s any good news from the 2013 General Assembly session, it is that the hard right’s strange hold on taxation has been broken. Republicans can start acting like responsible adults once again instead of dogmatic shills or spoiled children.

Gov. Robert F. Donnell and legislators found a way to raise badly needed money for transportation although it came via a very bad law that ties itself up like a contortionist doing this and that when all that needed to be done was to simply raise the gasoline tax for the first time in 26 years.

The Democrats were right to strong-arm McDonnell into going along with expanding Medicaid. It would have been absolutely ridiculous for Virginia to hold its stubborn head high and deny thousands of needy people medical assistance so they can feel good about some ludicrous oath from Grover Norquist they may have recited at one point to get votes. The feds will be paying for the expansion until 2016 and then for 90 percent of it. Imagine a well fed delegate saying, “No, you poor person can’t have health care because it is doctrinally impure!”

The upshot is is that we need to get of the Grover Norquists, the Tea Baggers and all their ilk to get on with the serious business of running the state and country. The sequestration debacle is more than embarrassing for its stupidity. So is Kenneth Cuccinelli with Bob Marshall cheering him to to find any bogus constitutional challenge to anything he finds political impure as far as taxation.

The bottom line is that if you want fixed roads, good schools and a decent place to live, you have to pay for them through taxes. Simple. You can’t depend on private industry to see you through, especially not when a good chunk of it in the Old Dominion is actually federal government money that’s about to be cut off in a big way. You can’t do it through little shell games with public private partnerships to build roads you often do not need. And you just can’t kick the can to younger generations so you can remain holy.

In other words, the days of the Tea Party, “Boomergeddon” and all the clarion calls to the need for budget cutting are over. They’ve been over for a while. We get it. We’ve been spending too much. But it is idiotic to go cold turkey without some thought given to it because you will crash the economy and die of the DTs. You don’t cure a crash victim by denying him blood. That’s not voodoo economics, that’s vampire economics. You need a balance and that’s exactly what the Boomergeddons and Baconauts want to deny us.

As for McDonnell, well, he’s finally got his legacy. It looks pretty messy. He did manage to get more money for roads, but he did through a Rube Goldberg contraption of taxation. He has a totally wrong-headed tax on alternative vehicles which shows,once again, just how Neanderthal much of the thinking in the General Assembly is.

McDonnell failed to get legacies through privatizing state alcohol stores or erecting offshore oil rigs. Last year, the legislature got so out of control with social conservative nonsense — another Tea Party legacy — that Virginia scored on national Snark TV for its inane war against women. That cost McDonnell a hell of a lot, namely the vice presidential nomination.

Now, he’s reportedly thinking about something bigger and I gather his platform for that will be his tax victory. Good Luck.

The Case For Transportation User Fees

by James A. Bacon

Say this about Governor Bob McDonnell’s plan to scrap the gasoline tax and substitute a sales tax to fund transportation: Virginia has plenty of company around the country when it come to abandoning the user-pays principle. Americans apparently consider free roads, bridges and highways as an inalienable birth right — right up there with Medicare, Social Security, cheap mortgages, subsidized college tuition loans and the entire array of middle-class entitlements.

According to the Tax Foundation, state and local governments raised $37 billion in motor fuel taxes and $12 billion in tolls and non-fuel taxes, but spent $155 billion on highways. This, state user fees covered about 32% of total highway expenses. (Important caveat: Tax Foundation numbers include federal spending, most of which is funded by a gas tax, in spending figures but not in the state user-fee numbers.)

The ratios vary somewhat for other transportation modes, all of which rely upon a combination of user fees and subsidies. Air transportation was least dependent upon subsidies, at 22%. Transit relied the most upon subsidies, about 78%.

Virginia does not stray far from the national average. User fees (not including the federal gas tax) cover only 31.5% of road and highway spending and 39.8% of all transportation spending. By eliminating about $900 million a year in gasoline taxes, the McDonnell tax plan would largely sever any connection between how much people drive and how much they pay to maintain and grow the state road network.

Why is this a bad thing? For anyone conversant with economics, the value of user fees is self evident. I shall try to make the logic clear. People should pay the cost of the goods and services they consume unless there is a compelling public policy justification to do otherwise. If people get something for less than it costs, they demand more of it than they would otherwise. In the case of roads, that demand leads to an incremental increase in travel, traffic congestion and higher costs imposed indirectly upon the driving public in the form of gasoline consumed, vehicle depreciation and lost time.

Mark Burris with the Texas A&M Transportation Institute has said that eliminating the 17.5-cent-per-gallon gasoline tax would increase the number of miles driven in Virginia might by about 1.25%. That’s enough to add measurable stress to the transportation system — there’s a multiplier effect in which a one-percent increase in traffic will lead to two or three percent increase in congestion — but not enough to materially improve economic opportunity or the quality of life.

If schools, why not roads? Proponents of subsidies for roads use the analogy of the K-12 schools system. We subsidize schools, why not roads? Here’s why: A significant percentage of the population could not afford schooling if it were not free. The social spillover benefits of educating lower- and middle-income Americans so they can participate in the workforce — greater economic productivity, higher incomes, more taxes paid — is vast. Indeed, a modern economy cannot function without an educated workforce. By contrast, eliminating the gas tax will not suddenly make automobiles affordable for millions of people who do not now own cars — a few, perhaps, but not many. That’s because gasoline taxes represent a relatively small fraction of the total cost of automobile ownership. And even if it did, the economic benefit of subsidizing more automobile travel is incremental at best.

Everybody benefits from roads. Then there’s the argument that roads are necessary for commerce, therefore, everyone benefits whether they drive, walk, ride a bike, take the bus or work at home. Your employer probably benefits from having roads, goes this line of logic, so you benefit indirectly. Goods are cheaper at the store, so, if you buy stuff, you benefit indirectly.

By this reasoning, why not make roads totally free for everyone, including heavy trucks, which are directly engaged in commerce? After all, everybody benefits. The reason is that it would sent distorted price signals that lead to inefficient behavior, diverting containers from rail or barge, for instance, to trucks. Likewise, making roads free for commuters changes their economic calculus, leading to more driving and less walking, biking, ride sharing that otherwise. Electricity helps our economy function, too, but we don’t charge less than it costs. Likewise, Internet access greases the wheels of commerce, but we don’t give it away for free either.

We subsidize transit, why not cars? This may be the worst argument of all. We do subsidize transit, and transit operations constitute a running sore on the public fisc. (Just ask the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority where it expects to raise $10 billion or more to replace depreciated track, stations and rolling stock!) We desperately need to find a fiscally sustainable model for transit. But as long as we subsidize cars, defenders of the transit status quo will respond with “We subsidize cars, why not subsidize transit” as an excuse not to reform. The solution is for all transportation modes to absorb their full costs so society can make rational choices, not to make the true costs opaque for everybody.

The argument that we subsidize X, therefore, why not Y, is a creeping sickness permeating our entire economy, justifying the mis-allocation of trillions of dollars. And look where it’s leading us. We’re deeper than ever in debt and economy is more sluggish than any time in U.S. history. This pernicious  thinking simply must change.

Here Comes Cooch-ageddon!

Illustration credit: Ed Harrington, Style Weekly.

Hard right conservative Kenneth T. Cuccinelli has a very good chance of becoming the next governor. At least that’s my view 11 months out.

I disagree with Cuccinelli on almost everything and will spare my readers the list. But I do agree on one thing: he has proved to be a wily politician. He’s turned the Republican establishment on its head. His likely opponent Terry McAuliffe has yet to prove himself as a viable opponent if he is indeed the Democratic choice, as he now seems he will be. Cuccinelli’s off-year race will be one of the most closely watched by the national media.

Enough talking. Read my cover story in Richmond’s Style Weekly.

Medicaid Madness

State bean counters have revised their estimates for what it would cost to expand the state Medicaid program under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. The good news is that Virginia actually would save money, thanks to federal reimbursements and other provisions in Obamacare, through 2019. And when it does start costing the state, Virginia will lose only $1.1 billion over 10 years — half an earlier estimate and a modest sum for a budget that could exceed $500 billion over that period.

Moreover, Uncle Sam would cough up an extra $23 billion over that period, injecting billions of dollars into Virginia’s health care sector and extending health coverage to 250,000 who didn’t have it before, reports the Times-Dispatch.

Bacon’s bottom line: The positive economic stimulus is a powerful argument in favor of expanding Medicaid — an argument, I predict, that will be hard to overcome. But there is good reason to question the deal proffered by Obamacare. How confident is Virginia that the federal government will be able to make good on its promises into the indefinite future? If Washington fails to deliver, what expectation will there be for state taxpayers to make up the difference and maintain the entitlement? Once granted, an entitlement is extremely difficult to take away.

My perspective stems from my appraisal of the budget negotiations in Washington. I regard them as a catastrophic farce. Without getting into the partisan blame game, a useless exercise as far as predicting what will happen, it is increasingly clear that Republicans and Democrats are negotiating on the margins. The future likely holds some combination of slightly higher taxes on the rich, modest defense cuts, incremental changes to entitlements and a cap on discretionary domestic spending, which won’t come close to closing the $1 trillion-year budget gap.

In the slow-growth economy that the United States is likely to encounter for the foreseeable future, deficits will continue to run close to $1 trillion a year indefinitely. The national debt will exceed $20 trillion in four years. America’s fiscal path is unsustainable. The only question is how long we can prolong the inevitable reckoning. Against the backdrop of Boomergeddon, the idea of expanding entitlements is certifiable, throw-them-into-the-loonie-bin madness.

If you accept this analysis, then you have to ask this question: Will Virginia be willing and able to take up the slack for a faltering federal government? Or will it pull out the rug from consumers and health care providers after the industry has restructured itself to accommodate an expanded Medicaid program? It’s a huge risk to take. Governor Bob McDonnell is certainly correct in driving a hard bargain with the federalistas — he is seeking waivers that would give the state more flexibility in the benefits it provides — before signing on to an expansion.

– JAB