Category Archives: Energy

The Old Boy’s Still Around

Posted on October 12, 2011 by Peter Galuszka| 5 Comments

By Peter Galuszka

(first of a series)

BEIJING, China — Red and gold emblems flap around Tiananmen Square in celebration of 62 years of the People’s Republic of China. This holiday, the sprawling square area is thronged with Chinese families of all ages on this warm and sunny fall afternoon.

I am here on a book research trip that will take me into three Asian nations. Of the three, China holds the spotlight as the coming thing. It’s been the coming thing since the 1980s when Deng Xiaoping turned more than three decades of Maoist central planning on its head and started market reforms. A combination of  pent-up entrepreneurial zeal that’s part of the Chinese DNA and a huge, young population soon sparked double-digit GDP growth rates that started to slow from 11.9 percent in 2010 to 9.7 percent only this year.

The results are stunning. The capital boasts of new buildings, clean streets, an efficient subway system, and luxury stores and restaurants. Growth is concentrated in coastal areas, such as Guangzhou and Shanghai where I stopped first to pick up my wife who is spending the year teaching there. Conventional wisdom has it that with its wealth and growth levels, China is fast eclipsing the United States as the world’s leading power — a view that my otherwise pleasant French Canadian seat mate mentioned as many as five times on the flight over from the states.

Shanghai is likewise a shiny jewel of Chinese modernity, shinier even than Beijing. Its riverfront skyscrapers soar high. Everywhere, gigantic flat screen televisions and LED lights flash out new light architecture. One example of this almost obscene longing for western-style commercialism is Wu Jiao Chang, a square that just got a new subway stop last year. At least four huge, multi-level shopping malls surround the square. Its focal point is a passenger rail line running through the center that has cladding shaped like a giant dirigible covered by thousands of tiny, color-coordinated flashing LED lights.

“People in Shanghai don’t seem to want anything more than eat, shop and have their hair done,” my wife says. Her words echo those of French philosopher Jean Paul-Sartre who once said: “Hell is all the people at a Shanghai department store at the same time.”

The mass-overconsumption so complained about on this blog is in full throttle in China’s big cities. Does it mean true modernity and western values? Not at all.

For an example, let’s go back to Beijing. We stayed at a no-star Chinese hotel near the massive airport because we had an earlier morning flight and couldn’t handle morning traffic. It wasn’t anything we couldn’t handle after years in the former Soviet Union, but it was tucked away in what you might think of as the real China. Garbage lay on the steps of the little eateries and hair dressers in a little strip mall that seemed destined soon for bulldozers. I needed the Internet to get in touch with Expedia.

I ended up in an “Internet cafe” up the dirty stairs of a building. The room was filled with 60 or more terminals with young Chinese playing Net games at some. But you don’t just sit down and boot up. You have to go to the bar where a man examines your passport and writes down all pertinent information for the police. The Net is tightly restricted since the Communist government fears the kind of Twitter-based backlash that this year brought down regimes in Egypt and Tunisia and probably Libya.

I sat down at an ancient Acer desktop with a keyboard that has been through several iterations of rebuilding. The keys are alternately black and red. It’s slow and pokey. A scary thought goes through my head: Do I want to put my Expedia personal data on this? Hell no.

I remember a Wall Street Journal story from earlier this year reporting that Chinese governments officials allegedly hacked hundreds of Google email accounts. The hacking was tracked to the People Liberation Army’s technical reconnaissance bureaus in the city of Jinan. This Big Brother approach is reminder of just how much China hasn’t changed, despite the glittering lights.

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Posted in Demographics, Economic development, Energy, Environment, Labor & workforce, Land use, The Economy, Transportation, Uncategorized

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Should Dominion Virginia Power Spin Off its Nukes?

Posted on October 4, 2011 by James A. Bacon| 5 Comments

Over the past two years, Dominion Virginia Power has experienced 14 unplanned shutdowns of its four nuclear reactors, by the Times-Dispatch’s counting. Is it time for the power company to consider spinning off its nukes or selling them to someone who can do a better job of running them?

I ask that question after encountering a new study by Lucas W. Davis and Catherine Wolfram, “Deregulation, Consolidation and Efficiency: Evidence from U.S. Nuclear Power,” published by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Here’s the argument they make:

For four decades all nuclear power reactors in the United States were owned by regulated utilities. Few utilities owned more than one or two reactors and utilities received a rate of return on their capital investments that was largely disconnected from operating efficiency. Beginning in the late 1990s electricity markets in many states were deregulated and 48 of the nation’s 103 nuclear power reactors were sold to independent power producers selling power in competitive wholesale markets. These divestitures have led to substantial market consolidation and today the three largest companies control more than one‐third of all U.S. nuclear capacity.

… We find that deregulation and consolidation are associated with a 10 percent increase in operating efficiency, achieved primarily by reducing the frequency and duration of reactor outages. Efficiency gains were experienced broadly across reactors of different types, manufacturers, and vintages, with the largest increases in the spring and fall during the peak months for refueling.

The resulting increase in electricity production exceeds 40 billion kilowatt hours annually, valued at $2.5 billion annually at current prices. “This increase is almost pure efficiency gain, achieved without building a single new plant or constructing a single additional mile of transmission capacity,” the authors note. The increased electricity output, they add, displaces mostly coal‐ and natural‐gas‐ fired power, implying an annual decrease of 38 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions.

I was always under the impression that Dominion ran its nukes pretty well, so that 10% efficiency gain may not apply here. But we won’t know for sure if we don’t ask. Such a gain, if possible, would delay the need to add more power-generating capacity, thus keeping a lid on electric rates. Lower CO2 emissions are a bonus that environmentalists should love. Perhaps the State Corporation Commission should look into it.

– JAB

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Posted in 2011, Energy, Regulation

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The Wonk Salon, September 24, 2011

Posted on September 24, 2011 by James A. Bacon| 1 Comment


The Impact of Minimum Wage on Somoa, Marianas
Government Accountability Office
Increases in the minimum wage have devastated the tuna cannery industry in Somoa but has been less of a factor in the tourism-based economy of the Northern Mariana Islands.

L.A. Gang Reduction Program Is Helping
Urban Institute
A drop in gang-related crime was evident before the Gang Reduction and Youth Development Program was launched, but the program appears to have accelerated the decline.

The Declining Impact of Extreme Weather Events
Reason Foundation
Global warming be damned. Aggregate mortality due to all extreme weather events globally — droughts, storms, floods and extreme heat — has declined by 90% over the past century in spite of a four-fold rise in population.

Empower States to Regulate Gas Drilling
Heritage Foundation
The feds should not hamper development of the country’s plentiful natural gas reserves. Let the states deal with environmental issues.

Creating Jobs by Conserving Public Lands
Center for American Progress
Conservation of public lands supports 388,000 jobs in recreation, tourism, renewable energy, restoration and landscape restoration.

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Posted in 2011, Children and families, Crime and corrections, Energy, Environment, Wonk Salon

Back to the Future

Posted on September 20, 2011 by Peter Galuszka| 23 Comments

By Peter Galuszka

Virginia’s “no tax” governor is on his way to sticking the state’s motorists with a tax by another name.

Robert F. McDonnell has won preliminary federal approval to stick drivers with a toll of from $2 to $4 on parts of Interstate 95 supposedly to help the cash-starved state fund “safety” improvements. The last time Virginia had a toll on I-95 was in 1992 when they were finally ended between Richmond and Petersburg.

A few problems with his plan. First, it is hugely out of character for a Republican governor with national ambitions who tries to keep in vogue with the “no tax” mantra of his GOP colleagues. A toll is a tax.

Second problem: McDonnell is most likely to place the tax on parts of I-95 that are the least traveled. Toll booths could be stuck at the North Carolina border and then again at Massaponax just south of Fredericksburg. Daily volumes  are 40,000 vehicles a day around the Ta Heel line and about 145,000 a day near Fredericksburg.

Road use is much higher in the D.C. area, namely 215,000 cars a day at the Springfield interchange in Northern Virginia. So if you are really going to stick it to the motorists and rack up some cash, why not put the tolls where there are the most cars?

The answer is that McDonnell doesn’t have the guts to annoy Northern Virginia drivers. My guess is that this is the advice that Secretary of Transportation Sean Connaughton, McDonnell’s in-house Cardinal Richelieu, gave him. If you want your tolls put them where the people with the least political clout have to endure them, namely, the folks who live in the rural, less affluent areas of Southside.

Plus, Yankees, ahem Northerners, running their vans up and down 95 to see grandma in Florida or go to Disney World don’t vote in Virginia and are used to paying tolls on the New Jersey Turnpike. Don’t even bother to think about the North Carolinians. Years ago, being from the Tar Heel state could bring a jail sentence in a Richmond court.

The McDonnell interstate tax would generate a mere $30 million to $60 million a year. That’s pin money when the state’s transportation needs are $20 billion.

This troubling news comes just as federal cutbacks could kill the highly-successful Amtrak train from Lynchburg to Washington passenger train. In fact, 60 percent of Amtrak service in the state would end.

Meanwhile, let’s hope McDonnell’s toll idea goes the way of his plans to privatize liquor stores and drill for offshore oil.

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Posted in Demographics, Economic development, Economy, Energy, Environment, Infrastructure, Public safety & health, Taxes, Transportation

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Ecologists Need Not Apply

Posted on September 10, 2011 by Peter Galuszka| 3 Comments

By Peter Galuszka

Stacking the deck seems to be the modus operandi of the administration of Virginia Gov. Robert F. McDonnell.

First, he annihilated nearly the entire board of the Virginia Ports Authority.

And on Friday, he announced his new picks for the Virginia Coal and Energy Commission. It is a very important decision since the commission will have significant influence on whether the General Assembly decides to end a decades’ long ban on uranium mining and go forward with a proposed and highly controversial operation near Chatham in Southside. Plus, commissioners will influence whether Virginia continues with the highly destructive mountaintop removal method of coal mining in which thousands of areas of mountaintops are destroyed to get at thin coal seams. They also will set policy about how the state deals with hydro-fracking to get at deep natural gas reserves. The method could threaten groundwater with toxic chemicals.

McDonnell has appointed seven people. All are either energy company executives or lobbyists of some sort of large corporations that use coal, nuclear power or natural gas. Not one is from an environmental group. Not one has a scientific background. Let’s run through the list:

  • Barbara Altizer of Jewell Ridge in the far western coalfields is president and executive director of the Eastern Coal Council.
  • Jodi Gidley of Virginia Beach is president of Virginia Natural Gas.
  • Ken Hutcheson, is a top lobbyist at Williams Mullen, one of Richmond’s most powerful advocacy firms.
  • James K. Martin is a senior executive and lobbyist at Dominion Resources in Richmond. He is also a former executive at Peabody Coal. I had a run-in with Martin at the World Affairs Council of Greater Richmond of which is is president and I am a member. Martin refused to tell me anything about corporate contributions for the non-profit group or any information that is publicly available in their tax filings. I wouldn’t count him as an outspoken advocate of transparency.
  • John Matney of Bristol has been in the coal mining industry since the 1970s besides leasing coal reserves in Kentucky is head of a company that has a big golf course community in Georgia.
  • Donald L. Ratliff of Big Stone Gap is a lobbyist for coal-producer Alpha Natural Resources, which just took over troubled Massey Energy in June. Twenty-nine miners died in an underground mine explosion at a Massey mine in West Virginia in April, 2010 and Massey has been accused to ruining the Appalachians with its mountaintop removal surface mining operations.
  • Rhonnie Smith of Lynchburg is a retired executive from nuclear reactor maker Babock & Wilcox, which has fuel facilities in Lynchburg.

McDonnell did not choose one person from the Sierra Club, National Resources Defense Council, Union of Concerned Scientists or any of the groups that study the impact of fossil fuel on climate change.

This is entirely predictable of McDonnell, but the impact of his profound one-sidedness could be felt for years.

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Posted in 2011, Energy, Environment

The Ghost of June Allen

Posted on September 2, 2011 by Peter Galuszka| 1 Comment

By Peter Galuszka

The ghost of a classical piano player with a knack for penetrating huge engineering reports is watching over the latest problems at Dominion Virginia Power’s North Anna nuclear power station.

Throughout the 1970s, June Allen, who headed the North Anna Environmental Coalition and died of breast cancer in 2010, fought Virginia Electric & Power co., Dominion’s predecessor, over what her group claimed was a massive coverup of the dangers presented by building North Anna near a geological fault line.

Her fears seemed to be held true on Aug. 23 when a rare, 5.8 level earthquake with an epicenter a few miles from North Anna shook the area for hundreds of miles. North Anna shut down instantly, but the quake was strong enough to move 25 huge casks used to hold spent nuclear fuel at the site. Each cask weighs 115 tons.

Now, according to an Associated Press investigation, the earthquake dangers faced at North Anna are 38 percent more likely to cause damage to the cores of the two nuclear reactors at the plant than believed 20 years ago. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission believes that a quarter of the commercial reactors in the U.S. may need new modifications to help them withstand earthquakes.

Allen, who graduated from the University of Vermont in 1950 with degrees in music and English and later moved to Virginia, knew of the dangers in the early 1970s. She was instrumental in cutting through Vepco’s corporate jargon and dense and voluminous reports from the utility and federal regulators to raise serious questions about the reactors.

In 1967, when North Anna was on the drawing boards, an environmental consulting firm found there may be fault lines near the planned nuclear site. In 1970, a construction excavation wall collapsed and inspecting geologists reported finding a major fault line. Vepco did not report the fault to federal regulators for three years. Vepco got its license to proceed with the plant.

Allen and other grass roots activists smelled something rotten. In 1973, they formed their coalition and sued, claiming Vepco was lying about the fault lines. In 1975, the NRC accused Vepco of deleting files listing the fault lines in its reactor applications. The following year, Vepco was fined $32,000 for making materially false statements in its North Anna application.

At the time, Vepco was a very different company. It was a good-ole-boy outfit with close ties to Richmond’s business elite. To fight the coalition lawsuit and appeal the NRC’s fines, Vepco hired Hunton & Williams, Richmond’s most prominent law firm. In the same decade of th 1970s, Vepco’s management was so lax that its other nuclear power station, Surry, built a record as being the most-fined by the NRC.
Yet, the power brokers didn’t seem to know what to do with June Allen. They seemed flabbergasted with the soft-spoken woman showed up at hearings and asked penetrating questions. Vepco’s chairman is said to have stopped a proceeding, pointed his finger, and proclaimed with indignation, “There is Mrs. Allen.”

Sadly, June Allen has been proved clairvoyant. The unusual 5.8 level quake approaches the level that North Anna was built to withstand. Dominion is considering adding a third unit at North Anna. As they proceed with their plans, and worry about upgrades at the two older units, Mrs. Allen’s ghost will be somewhere in the hearing rooms.

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Posted in Economic development, Economy, Energy, Environment, Infrastructure, Technology

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Grumpy Old Men

Posted on September 1, 2011 by Peter Galuszka| 13 Comments

By Peter Galuszka

Here I was, sitting in a strip mall Panera, waiting for the next electric socket to open up.

It was the aftermath of Hurricane Irene and I had been without electricity since 4:35 p.m. Saturday. I have a home office, so having no power can be deadly. Plenty of other people had the same problem, so we all hightailed it to Panera to borrow their power and local wifi so we could be in business (sort of).

It was there that I pondered the government role in disasters. Let’s see. Dominion (free market-private) was knocked out by a storm not as bad as Isabelle in 2003. So I had  no power. I went to Lowe’s (free market-private) to get some 6 volt batteries so my camp light would work at night. But Lowe’s was sold out. I had planned to go to the Chesterfield Public Library (public) to use their wifi but they were closed and if I recall budget cuts would keep them closed for a little while. So, I was at Panera (free market-private) waiting in line like the old USSR just so I could see if American Airlines (free-market-private) was flying that day so I could make it to Texas for a long-awaited business appointment.

My turn finally came. Just for fun, I tripped over to Bacon’s Rebellion to see what the boys were up to. I wish I hadn’t.

There’s Ole Norm Leahy giving us a completely pointless history lesson on what Grover Cleveland had to say about the federal government helping out in disasters. Essentially, not their problem, you should be on your own, relying on the magic of the free market.

Next there’s James A. Bacon quoting some right wing outfit saying that the first Bush declared disasters areas 43 times, then Clinton more, then W’ more,  then Obama (the most). I spent a few long moments watching the steam float from my coffee wondering what the hell Bacon’s point was. Then his fuzzy math became obvious: “43+89+130+340 = Obama’s a socialist!”

Considering all the hassle I had had that day because of the non-functioning of PRIVATE, FOR-PROFIT entities, I didn’t get just annoyed. I got pissed. Actually, the federal government DID work in Irene.

At least American Airlines worked and I got to Texas. The next day, work concluded, I had a couple of hours to kill. So I turned my shiny yellow Camaro I had rented and headed west through the scrappy, live oak-saturated and ultra-dry Hill Country to visit the LBJ ranch. Texas has been in the middle of and intense drought. Local columnists love to point out how conservatives still insist that it has absolutely nothing to do with humans and global warming.

LBJ’s first fight was trying to get the Hill Country electrified. This was back in the day that some sort of public or semi-public effort or cooperative was necessary in remote and poor areas that for-profit firms would not touch. Has to do the market, you see. And then I went through all of the exhibits about LBJ — Civil Rights Act, Medicare, Medicaid, Voting Rights Act. If Obama’s a socialist, then Johnson was Vladimir Lenin.

Anyway, I made it home the next day. And guess what? Still no electricity (Dominion–free market-private).

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Posted in Consumer protection, Disaster planning, Economy, Energy, Entitlements, Environment, Federal, Finance, Infrastructure, Public safety & health, The Economy, Uncategorized

All Shook Up

Posted on August 23, 2011 by Peter Galuszka| 10 Comments

By Peter Galuszka

Today’s earthquake near Mineral should shake up a lot of thinking.

All sorts of things happened about 10 minutes to 2 p.m. The Pentagon was evacuated. Airplanes up and down the East Coast were put on ground hold. A stairwell in Richmond is said to have collapsed.

As for me, I was sitting under a pine tree in Nottoway County. I had had meetings in Richmond in the morning and then a doctor’s visit (good result) and I decided to take my trusty, 11-year-old German Shepherd for a midday break.

We drove to Fort Pickett near Blackstone and sat in the shade of a pine tree watching paratroopers jump from a lumbering C-130 transport plane. A few hundred feet away were two sea-grey Navy Seahawk helicopters. One started its jet engines. Then the ground started to tremble, and tremble and tremble. I was amazed the jet turbine could shake things so. It lasted a good 30 seconds. The pine needles shook. I actually thought how amazing that these few World War II era hangers could last so long, given all the shaking from planes and helicopters.

It wasn’t until 10 minutes later when I heard it was a 5.9 earthquake centered, as they usually are, near Mineral. It’s the same approximate location of an earlier quake in 2003. I had been on the phone for a work matter with a colleague and she said, “Gee, I have to stop drinking so much coffee.”

The U.S. East Coast is not as prepared as the West Coast is for earthquakes. We’ve had some — notably in Charleston S.C. Dominion’s two North Anna reactors are near the epicenter and word is that they lost power but diesel generators shut them down safely. I also learned that North Anna is designed only to handle a 5.9 to 6.1 level quake. We’re already there.

Years ago, when North Anna was proposed, environmentalists endured some rather nasty attacks from then-Virginia Electric Power Co. for suggesting that it might be a bad idea to locate nukes near a fault. The fault is ancient and never active, Vepco’s then-aggressive flaks insisted. You know how it is. Anyone who dares question Big Business is tarred as negative, regressive and un-American. Don’t believe me? Read this blog.

Granted, a 5.9 level quake is nothing like the 9.0 level one that struck Fukushima, Japan, causing the worst nuclear disaster since Chernobyl earlier this year. That quake turned the growing popularity of commercial nuclear power on its head. Germany will now get rids of its reactors over the next 20 years. Still, Southside politicians and farm owners want Virginia to become a locus of uranium mining near Chatham.

There’s plenty to think about. And who knows? Maybe the Baconauts and Fox “fair and balanced” News will try to afix blame on Barack Obama. Why not? They are blaming him for everything else.

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Posted in Disaster planning, Economic development, Economy, Energy, Environment, Federal, Infrastructure, The Economy

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The EMP Embroglio

Posted on August 21, 2011 by James A. Bacon| 10 Comments

by James A. Bacon

One of the most frightening end-of-the-world scenarios that bedevils my apocalyptic mind — scarier even than Boomergeddon — is the threat of an electromagnetic pulse over the United States. Whether caused by the detonation of a rogue nuclear weapon above the atmosphere or a blast of solar radiation, an EMP could wipe out the electric grid across the continental United States. Without electricity, modern civilization would collapse. Within no time at all, most of us would be reduced to subsisting on eight-year-old jars of artichoke hearts in the back of the pantry and, when they ran out, trapped chipmunks, squirrels and other suburban fauna.

People far more knowledgeable than I are worried about this. U.S. preparations for an EMP are woefully inadequate, says the Heritage Institute in a new backgrounder, “Before the Lights Go Out.” The military has hardened may of its facilities, but civilians have not. There are some initiatives afoot at the Congressional level, says Heritage, but state and local governments remain poorly prepared.

What’s happening in Virginia? Regulation of the electric power industry is a state responsibility. Is anyone even looking at this issue? (It would be asking too much to actually expect anyone to be doing something about it. I’ll be happy if someone is merely looking.)

Follow up question: Which is easier to harden against EMPs — an electric power grid in which power and distribution facilities are concentrated in a relatively few corporate hands? Or a distributed grid characterized by many small, local power providers? I’d like to know.

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Posted in 2011, Energy, Infrastructure

LOCATION-VARIABLE COSTS — LINE LOSS

Posted on May 26, 2010 by James A. Bacon| 7 Comments

In a comment following Peter G’s 25 May 2010 post “A Coal Plant Proposal Gets Even Dirtier,” Groveton said:

“Side note to EMR … I had a chance to talk with the head of engineering at a mid-western electricity company today. I asked him about line loss. He says a good rule of thumb is 7% of electricity is lost in transport – 3% in the transmission facilities and 4% in the distribution network.

“I am not sure how you arrive at the estimate of 30% line loss in calculating location variable costs. It sounds like the number should be 3% not 30%.”

EMR could make a ‘Peter G.-like” comment about the quality of Groveton’s research but will refrain.

The latest report of DOE’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) notes that of the 21 Quadrillion Btus devoted to the delivery of residential and commercial electrical energy, about 62 percent is “lost during generation, transmission and distribution.”

A utility can lower line loss by shortening distribution systems and keeping the transmission voltages high. Utilities can also cut line loss by lowering the temperature of the conductor – surrounding it with liquid nitrogen, etc – but that is not cost effective for most applications.

A smart utility would carry electrical service to big users at as high a voltage as possible to minimize line loss and that would lower the average system-wide line loss.

All that makes NO difference with respect to the 10 X Rule.

The numbers for total cost of delivering electric service in the 10 X Rule calculations — including line loss — were based on the actual cost of delivering the electricity over the actual distance required to distribute the service to 10 acre lots in a 10,000 acre area using the cost due to actual loss at the voltage used for distribution by the utility that provided the data for the specific distribution pattern in that specific location.

There is no back door. The bottom line is:

It is not possible to scatter Urban dwellings across the Countryside and provide them with electrical service – and other goods and Services – at a price that the end user would be willing to pay IF THE USER HAD TO PAY THE TRUE LOCATION-VARIABLE COSTS.

A few notes:

We suspect Groveton got an irrelevant answer because he has yet to wrap his mind around all the implications of dysfunctional geographic distribution. He was thus not able to articulate what he needed to know from the engineer.

EMR has pointed out for 37 years that FAR HIGHER efficiency can be achieved from Cluster, Neighborhood, Village and Community scale systems (including Modular Integrated Utility Systems) that capture and use the heat and generate the electricity ‘at’ the consumption site.

About 57 years ago EMR was privy to a powerful demonstration of the overwhelming economic advantage of bringing big users of electricity to the site of hydro-electric generators.

EMR is not sure where the “30 percent” figure Groveton cites came from. System wide, EMR has assumed that line loss was between 8 and 15 percent but does not recall the basis for that assumption. But again, that has nothing to do with the 10X Rule.

It is interesting to note that in EIA’s Annual Energy Review, they are specific about the waste of energy in producing electricity but not other forms of fuel. It must take energy to pump, transport, refine, transport and distribute gasoline – the ‘best’ internal combustion engines in Autonomobiles on the market today are only 30 percent efficient – but that data is not front and center as is the “loss during generation, transmission and distribution” of electricity.

Hope that helps Groveton.

EMR

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