Category Archives: Economy

Expanding U.S. 460 and the Chinese Connection

By Peter Galuszka

In the past day or so, there’s been a bit of buzz about a decades-old plan to expand the northwest to southeast route U.S. 460 takes through Virginia’s peanut country on its way to Tidewater. This latest bit of boosterism posits that giant ships inbound to Virginia via the widened Panama Canal will make for a large opportunity in trade.

Since existing Interstates linking Virginia Port Authority facilities in Norfolk, Portsmouth and Newport News are inadequate to handle the transshipment of cargo containers (and the role of railroads Norfolk Southern and CSXT is curiously left out of the equation),  the thinking seems to be that U.S. 460 is the only way to go. Or, we miss out on a big bonanza. Or so “economic development officials” think.

I, for one, have never been completely trusting of economic development people.  They are like Realtors trying to make sales. The last bargain they brought us involved Amazon sans state sales taxes. That idea was so wrong-headed that the public screamed and the General Assembly actually slapped on the country’s largest digital retailer to same tax a small Virginia business has to pay. So much for intelligence or egalitarianism.

Yet there’s a much bigger issue out there that must be considered before Virginians start signing all those public-private deals to create superhighways through Planters-land. Most of the increase in imports that will enter the U.S. thanks to the Panama Canal project will be from China. Believe it or not, the U.S. has big and unresolved issues with the People’s Republic, which still is a Communist-controlled country that puts dissidents in jail or exiles them.

For evidence, look no farther than the op-ed page of today’s New York Times. Richard A. Clarke, who was George W. Bush’s special advisor for cybersecurity, warns that Chinese officials have long raided our Websites and data bases and emails to mine out advantageous bits of intelligence, mostly of an economic nature. Among victims of China’s data theft are such as firms as Sony, Citibank, Lockheed, Booz Allen, Google, EMC and Nasdaq. By hacking our files, the Chinese gain a leg up in research. They don’t have to spend so much on R&D because they can easily steal ours.

Meanwhile, a new report by the Brookings Institution is so worried about such thefts of intellectual property and cybersecurity that it urges a new round of negotiations between Washington and Beijing before things really get out of hand. “U.S.-China strategic distrust is growing, is potentially very corrosive, is little understood on either side, and therefore should be addressed directly as a major issue,” write authors Kenneth Lieberthal and Wang Jisi.

The authors cite some other familiar issues, such as Beijing’s one-sided currency trading and hard-edged trade policy negotiating as reason for wariness. Another issue is China’s acceleration of military strength. This may not involve the ability to strike globally with nuclear weapons as was the case with the former Soviet Union, but China is making big strides with regional weaponery that could ward off U.S. tactical moves or threaten Taiwan. A big component involves the ability to hack digital files and launch cyberattacks.

President Obama is wary of the threats China is posing. As wars in South Asia wind down, he is proposing placing U.S. Marines in Australia. They would be a small force designed to be a tripwire and send a message to Beijing that the U.S. is nearby and might respond to aggression.

As one who has covered the Soviet Union and Russia for many years, I have always been puzzled about why the U.S. was quick to slap the Russians with trade sanctions a’ la Jackson Vanik while the Chinese got away with similar human rights violations not to mention very hardball economic and trade policies.

From the sounds of it, Virginia’s economic development sector either doesn’t know or doesn’t want to know about the uncertainty of where America’s future with China is going. If they don’t start paying attention, however, we might end up with huge, empty ships at deserted docks with the rest of us paying for a huge, underused highway.

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What Baconauts Won’t Discuss

By Peter Galuszka

Reading the Bacon’s Rebellion Blog always displays breathtaking contradictions. Chief among them is the huge contradiction between pushing “smart growth” and shunning any form of increasing gasoline taxation.

The crux is that we have lots of horrendous sprawl in the state such as all of Northern Virginia, Route 3 in Fredericksburg and U.S. 29 in Charlottesville. We have underfunded and under-maintained roads. That all adds up to a death spiral of bad planning and a slavish adherence to el-cheapo ways of doing things – all in the name of the Cato Institute.

In Virginia, for instance, the state gasoline tax is 17.5 cents a gallon. It hasn’t been raised in 25 years. It hasn’t even been made to adjust for inflation. By contrast, North Carolina’s gas tax is 38.9 cents per gallon.

As politicians, especially Republicans such as Gov. Robert F. McDonnell stubbornly refuse to consider the obvious solution to their many road issues, they have the rest of us jumping through one convoluted hoop after the other trying complicated ways to get funds without taxation. It’s a bit like trying to breathe without air.

That brings up another point – the insane accusations that Barack Obama is responsible for $4 a gallon gasoline. GOPers like Mitt Romney and Bobby Jindal (oil state guy) claim that gasoline prices have doubled under Obama and his energy policies are now creating havoc at the pump. The reality is that setting gasoline prices has a lot more to do with Asian demand the Iranian nuclear facilities than the policies of one U.S. president, who, by the way, has made big progress in weaning the country away from foreign oil.

Yet the biggest irony is spelled out in the latest issue of The New Yorker and comes, surprise, from Romney’s own economics adviser, Greg Mankiw. The Harvard professor recently wrote: “Economists who have added up all the externalities associated with driving conclude that a tax exceeding $2 a gallon makes sense…By taxing bad things more, we could tax good things less.”

Now, if you happen to read Bacon’s Rebellion’s most prominent blogger, we get an education how smart growth could make our lives better. We need to build more housing in more densely-packed areas, go for green zones, reduce wasteful and polluting gasoline use and try mass transit (all dipped in a libertarian flavor of course!)

The unspoken part is what Mankiw brings up. Federal gas tax is a puny 18.4 cents a gallon. If you raise  it to $2 a gallon, as Mankiw suggests, you’d suddenly have smart growth – presto! You’d have a lot of other things, too, such as much higher mileage cars, a fatter federal checkbook and less stupidity when it comes to highway and housing planning.

Are we going to get this? Of course not. The status quo politicians are hardly going to pretend the gas hike issue exists while blaming Obama for something not of his making. Meanwhile, readers of Bacon’s Rebellion will be treated to the increasingly amusing acts of contortionists stretching and folding any way they can to avoid discussing tax hikes. As a former altar boy I can appreciate trying to keep the dogma pure.

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Hate ObamaCare? Try Social Media

By Peter Galuszka

For all the chatter before the U.S. Supreme Court and pundits, ObamaCare has raised critical questions striking at the heart of individual rights and the Constitution. Yet there’s another, far more powerful and potentially more sinister force out there that is far more ominous along similar grounds: social media.

True, “social media” is considered “private industry” since it is dominated by fast-growing companies such as Facebook and therefore is considered “ok” by the libertarian crowd. They said the same thing back in the 1980s when Bill Gates cleverly forced more than 85 percent of the market to use his mediocre computer operating system, often by predatory tactics, or so critics say.

Now we have Facebook, created by yet another brainy Harvard geek, everywhere, dominating everything and changing, for the worse, how people communicate, how they can protect their privacy, intellectual property, how they think and how they write. (Mind you, it is “OK” because it is “private industry.”)

If you want to check into newspaper stories, you are often forced to go to a Facebook page where you must wade through a swamp of irrelevant crap such as what someone’s latest cat looks like and what they thought of last night’s Fettuccini Alfredo. Grandmothers feel a little heartbroken when their grandchildren say they can’t come over because they have to study, but then post their same-day trips to a theme park on their Facebook pages where Grandma can easily see them. Even common courtesy is being taken apart by this latest fad.

The issues created by Facebook go far beyond ObamaCare requiring everyone to get health insurance. The Virginia State Police is now under fierce attack by civil libertarians for forcing applicant state troopers to hand over passwords so investigators can vet their Facebook pages. In ancient days, it would be like giving inquisitors every personal letter you ever wrote or your diary.

True, vetting state employees especially cops is important. If Gov. Robert F. McDonnell had been a little more attentive about who his personal chef was, he wouldn’t be getting front-page publicity. One wonders why he needs a chef to handle 100 events a year, but I guess it’s better that way, since if he didn’t have a chef, there are plenty of powerful corporations and lobbying firm all too happy to handle his canapés for him. But there must be limits. Not only the State Police, but many companies, are stepping over the personal privacy lane because enormously public Facebook makes it easy.

Another Facebook issue is who controls content. The company has gotten into trouble over this one before. The company line is that what you post is yours, but Facebook pretty much gets to do whatever it wants with it until you officially remove the item. Sometimes, it is hard to change anything with these faceless, computer-driven firms who often don’t even bother to have phone trees, let along Customer Relationship Managers, to handle your problem.

Intellectual property is another big issue. If you post your creative work, how do you know it isn’t being ripped off? This question drills down to a generational divide. Some of the 20-somethings I work with part-time are so part of the Facebook culture, they judge their success by their number of hits, rather than the chances that their content is being ripped off. On the other hand, one of my daughters, a college senior studying art, told me than none of her colleagues will ever post any of their work on Facebook, not even photos of paintings, because they are too afraid of losing ownership control and there seem to be no safeguards.

Lastly, since Facebook and Tweets and Twitters (whatever) are designed around quick, instant messages, they are as forgettable as they are extremely brief. The process puts enormous pressure on users not to do any deep thinking, develop an argument or share any more than the simplest of creative ideas.

What you are seeing is the medium truly becoming the message (or, even better, the massage).  Oops, that sounds so 1960s Marshall McLuhan. I am showing my age.

 

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The Uranium Quagmire

By Peter Galuszka

For the 50 or so people sitting in the quaint Pepsi-Cola building Tuesday in Danville’s tobacco warehouse district, the information seemed to spawn more frustration than clarity. They had gathered to hear two economic impact reports regarding controversial plans by Virginia Uranium to mine an ore deposit a dozen miles to the north in Chatham.

“The bottom line is that we don’t know what will happen in the future,” said Katherine Heller, a senior economist at RTI International. The Research Triangle Park, N.C. consulting firm had been hired by regional agencies to estimate what happens if Virginia Uranium, owned by local and Canadian investors, proceeds with its plans for a uranium mining and milling complex.

The RTI report, in addition to one prepared for the state by Chmura Economics and Analytics in Richmond, says that barring human error and adequate regulations, the uranium project could be a boon for the depressed, former textile and furniture region. RTI predicts it could bring in 724 jobs and $162 million in a year affecting an area 50 miles from the mine and milling operation. Chmura’s report says essentially the same thing.

Those predictions, however, assume the state overcomes big hurdles, as yet another report by the National Academy of Sciences says it must face. Among those obstacles:

  • Virginia has no laws regulating uranium mining or milling ore into useable yellowcake. Gov. Robert F. McDonnell recommended delaying any decision on voiding a nearly three-decades-long ban on uranium mining in the state until more study is done. He has set up a group to study the issue.
  • According to RTI, the tailings from the uranium deposit that runs 1,500-foot deep will be stored permanently underground in an area near vital drinking water supplies. According to Heller, those dump sites will have to be monitored indefinitely, most likely for thousands of years. There are no plans yet to do such monitoring or how to pay for it.
  • There are no plans yet on requiring Virginia Uranium to set aside funds in escrow to help localities deal the costs and loss of businesses and taxes due a potential spill or accident. It also isn’t clear who will pay for the necessary state regulators and inspectors especially when the upcoming budget is tight and has yet to be approved.
  • There are lingering questions and confusion over how transparent the McDonnell group will be as it studies uranium mining. At first, Cathie J. France, a deputy director of the Department of Mines, Minerals and Energy who heads the uranium committee, said that her group would not hold public hearings but would accept written comment and provide a Web page. After public criticism, Martin L. Kent, McDonnell’s chief of staff, wrote legislators that due to “misunderstanding” there had been a “mischaracterization” of how public comment will be obtained. He says that the group will “accept public comment during four open meetings.”
  • The economic health of the uranium plans depends on highly volatile global uranium pricing. Heller said that RTI based its predictions on a “middle high” estimate that could be subject to big and unexpected swings.
  • So far, studies regarding uranium mining have cost various government entities more than $2.7 million. The RTI study cost $530,000. Yet they all confront the same problem, the impossibility of assessing risk or economic fallout if there are no state regulations or enforcement mechanisms in place to set a benchmark.

The bottom line is that the uranium idea seems terribly premature. Virginia Uranium has already drawn negative attention for taking legislators on expenses-paid trips to places such as Paris. McDonnell wants his committee to make recommendations to the 2013 General Assembly. That may be way too soon.

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Virginia: Best State to Make a Living

MoneyRates.com has ranked Virginia the “Best State to Make a Living” in its annual study , beating out Washington state, Texas and Illinois to snag the top spot.

The ranking considers four factors: Average Income, which increased in Virginia over the past year; Cost of Living based on ACCRA Cost of Living Index, which slightly decreased; Unemployment Rate, which decreased; and State Income Tax, which stayed the same.

Last year, Virginia ranked No. 4.

It’s refreshing to see the Old Dominion score so well, especially after the State Integrity Investigation project, in which it scored an “F” for government transparency and accountability.

– JAB

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Factoid of the Day: Virginia’s Biggest Agricultural Customer

Morocco? Really?

Virginia agricultural exports are on a roll, having increased 6% in value in 2011. And our biggest export customer was… Morocco. Yes, that small African country purchased $360 million in Virginia farm and wood products, more than China ($304 million), Canada ($220 million), Switzerland, Egypt, Tunisia, Cuba, Venezuela, Indonesia, or any other country.

Top export products in 2011 included soybeans, poultry, wheat, pork, lumber and wood products, corn, animal feed, un-manufactured leaf tobacco, fats and oils, cotton, marine and aquaculture products, fresh vegetables, raw peanuts, hides and skins, processed foods, and beverages, including wine. So says this press release from the Guv’s office.

– JAB

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Who Gets Credit for Virginia’s Recovery?

By Peter Galuszka

As with fruit tree blossoms, economic recovery is in the springtime air in the Old Dominion. Virginia’s unemployment rate dropped to 5.8 percent in January, a three-year low. The question now is who gets credit for it.

Leading the “credit me” pack is Gov. Robert F. McDonnell who insists that his job creation policies are responsible for the uptick.  “Now the good news that we’re beginning to come out of this economic downturn stronger and better than most other states,” he says.

Setting himself him as a “jobs” creator is especially important to McDonnell now that his ambitions to be considered as a vice presidential candidate have taken major hits with his handling of the extremely divisive moves by hard-right legislators to promote their anti-abortion agenda. McDonnell’s positions have been mocked on televisions shows such as Saturday Night Live. Doonesbury is running cartoon strips this week lambasting conservative white males in Texas (read “Virginia,” too) for their extreme ham-handedness in how they regard women considering their legal right to abortion.

To be sure, McDonnell has worked hard to get more jobs in Virginia. One notable example is Amazon.com which will open distribution centers in Dinwiddie and Chesterfield Counties that will create hundreds of new jobs. Problem is: McDonnell let Amazon get away with paying a state sales tax as an incentive until the General Assembly shot down that idea.

Another problem with McDonnell’s claims is that some of the jobs he may be creating are just in the pipeline. He did win a $3 billion transportation bond package, but the bulk of those jobs are a bit down the road.

What’s unsettling about McDonnell’s claims, however, is that he leaves out the role that federal jobs and government spending played in the recovery. As a former Army officer, he ought to know that Virginia is chock-a-block with defense jobs. President Barack Obama gets no credit, either. Virginia benefited from Obama’s stimulus package in 2009 and 2010, while Republicans such as McDonnell whined away about “socialism” and runaway deficit spending. Yet those very policies have finally borne fruit.

James Koch, an economics professor at Old Dominion University, says that McDonnell’s job creation program was helpful. “But the truth is governors don’t have very many tools to influence what’s happening nationally, and what’s happening in Virginia reflects the national recovery in many respects,” he adds.

Predictably, Democratic Party had stronger criticism of McDonnell for ignoring Obama’s contribution. The bottom line is that McDonnell does have the right idea on creating jobs. But really should give credit where it is due.

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Complacency Check: Virginia’s Employment Picture

We can all take some comfort in the fact that Virginia’s unemployment rate has fallen to 5.8%, a three-year low. Only a year ago, unemployment was 6.4%, and it had been as high as 7.2%. Clearly, the economy is strengthening. It would be beastly not to savor the gains for a least a moment. So, let’s all bow our heads for a moment of silent thanks. … There. Now, what do we make the the numbers?

Just as the Obama administration is taking credit for the improving employment picture nationally, the McDonnell administration is taking credit for the improving employment picture in the Old Dominion. As I have blogged previously, I am little impressed with the Obama track record, which is based upon fiscal and monetary stimulus that is unprecedented for a peace-time economy and will wither as soon as that stimulus is withdrawn. I also remain unimpressed with the McDonnell administration’s track record, which has been sub-par compared to national numbers over the past year.

The following numbers from the Associated Press show that although unemployment declined in Virginia between January 2011 and January 2012, it dropped more in 32 other states.


McDonnell and his jobs czar, Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling, do deserve kudos for one thing. Unlike their executive counterpart in Washington, D.C., who utilized the economic crisis in order to engineer an unsustainable expansion in the size and scope of government, they have cobbled together an economic strategy that functions within tight fiscal constraints: no tax increases, no unsupportable increases in debt and little increase in inflation-adjusted spending. Also, they have done a competent job of utilizing the tools that have been available to all Virginia governors for time immemorial — promoting inward corporate investment, tourism, agricultural exports and the like. What they have failed to do — and they reflect the blinkered thinking of Virginia’s political class and civic leadership in this regard — is think about economic development in creative and imaginative ways.

In truth, there is little to celebrate. Virginia’s economy recovery is as fragile — and reversible — as the nation’s economic recovery. We should not take this brief revival in our fortunes as a reason to get complacent. Rather, we should redouble our efforts, while we have the resources to do so, to bring about fundamental and lasting change to the underpinnings of a strong economy: education, health care, transportation, land use and efficient government services.

Update: Virginia had a good year by traditional economic development standards — the state ranked No. 5 in Site Selection magazine’s top states by number of corporate facilities and expansions, snagging 273 new projects, up from 190 the year before. (See press release.) This is what Virginia is good at, but clearly it’s not enough to move the jobs meter very far.

– JAB

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IG of the Day: Exports in Virginia’s Economy

Virginia may boast one of the premier ports on the East Coast and one of the premier international airports in the country, but Virginia’s metropolitan regions are not very plugged into the global economy. According to the Brookings Institution’s “Metropolitan Exports Dashboard,” the percentage of GDP accounted for by exports in the Washington, Hampton Roads and Richmond economies is less than 10%. That’s too bad because export-related jobs tend to be better paid than non-export jobs.

I’m old enough to remember when Jerry Baliles was governor. He saw exports and Foreign Direct Investment as the key to economic development for Virginia. He led numerous overseas trade missions and he emphasized the teaching of geography in Virginia schools. He helped launch other initiatives to make Virginians more cosmopolitan in their thinking, such the Japan-Virginia society, which at one time was a very active organization. Since the late 1980s, Virginians have become more insular. Governors lead fewer missions overseas. Virginia’s eonomy has suffered the downside of globalization — our apparel, textile and furniture industries have been obliterated — but my sense is that Virginia businesses have not taken full advantage of the opportunities that globalization offers. Our loss.

Update: The Governor’s office issued this press release noting that Virginia agricultural exports increased 6% in 2011, reaching record levels. The exports totaled $2.35 billion in value. Presumably, agricultural exports are not captured in the metropolitan statistics cited by Brookings: Urban areas don’t have a lot of farms and woodlands.

– JAB

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Update: Menhaden 1, General Assembly 0

                                                                                                                

Little White Lies.  Politicians in Virginia support motherhood, apple pie and the Chesapeake Bay.  Just ask them.  Of course their support for motherhood comes complete with state police in riot gear when actual mothers show up in Richmond.  And the frat boys in the General Assembly like apples because they can be turned into booze with uncapped alcohol content.  This uncapped hard cider makes the tales of bedroom exploits all the more humorous when told from the floor of the General Assembly.  The Bay, however, is sacrosanct.  Unless it impinges on campaign contributions from those who would destroy it.

Of Mice and Men … haden.  Menhaden are small, oily, inedible fish that once swam in great quantity in the Bay.  Essentially useless as a food for humans, menhaden are among the greatest of delicacies for many of the Bay’s famous fish.  Striped bass, bluefish and weakfish will stand in long lines for a table at the Menhaden Cafe.  At least, they used to dine at the Menhaden Cafe.  That was before the Virginia legislature bucked pressure from the other Atlantic seaboard states and let a Texas company do its level best to wipe out the Menhaden stock in the Chesapeake Bay.  This cowardly action has led to a deplorable drop in the menhaden stock.

A silver fish with green highlights.  The only saltwater fish in Virginia regulated directly by the General Assembly is the menhaden.  This is because the menhaden is the only fish that can turn directly into campaign contributions from its greatest enemy – the Omega Protein Company.  Based in Houston, Texas, but operating out of Reedville, Virginia, the Omega Protein Company uses its ten factory ships, planes and helicopters to pillage the Chesapeake Bay of its menhaden.  Omega is such a pariah in the marine management world that every Atlantic state, except Virginia, has banned its factory ships from their coastal waters (although North Carolina allows limited access).  Virginia’s love affair with Omega Protein is buoyed by waves of cash.  $55,000 to Gov Bob McDonnell, $106,000 to state legislators, $53,000 to Virginia’s federal politicians and another cool $3M in lobbying.  All of which has given the Clown Show in Richmond sufficient “courage” to persecute the little fish to the edge of extinction.

The universal fate of bullies.  Unfortunately for Virginia’s politicians, not all states have legislatures laden with greasy fingered, greedy eco-cowards.  Last November, representatives from the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission (ASMFC) helped the little fish pivot on its left dorsal fin and throw an overhand right straight into the faces of Virginia’s political class.  Metaphorically speaking, of course.  Virginia’s political class was left with two black eyes, a broken nose and a mouth full of blood and tooth fragments.  Metaphorically speaking, of course.  The ASMFC voted 14-3 to implement a strict menhaden fishing limit across all of the Atlantic states – including Virginia.  The net effect of the cap will be a 37% reduction in the commercial landings of menhaden.  Or, put another way, the Chesapeake Bay will finally start to recover its menhaden stock.

Numbers?  We don’t need no stinkin’ numbers.  Much of the opposition to menhaden fishing limits has come from Virginia politicians concerned about the impact a limit will have on the 300 largely seasonal jobs provided by the Omega Protein Company to the people of Reedville, Va.  It is a legitimate concern.  However, math has never been our political class’ long suit.  There can be no doubt that overfishing of menhaden is hurting the sportfishing industry in the Chesapeake Bay.  Striped bass are now routinely found to be malnourished in the Chesapeake Bay.  Anecdotally, the charter fishing business seems to have fallen on hard times.  It seems that annihilating the source of food for sport fish hurts the sport-fishing industry.  Go figure.

Omega is the only large scale commercial menhaden fishing operation on the East Coast so calculating the benefits of that industry is fairly easy.  They have sales of $60M per year.  They employ 300 Virginians at peak and generate demand for another 219 affiliated jobs outside the Omega Protein Company.  Meanwhile, the recreational fishing industry in Virginia and Maryland generates $332M of economic activity and provided 3,500 jobs in 2008.  It seems to me that a 37% reduction in commercial menhaden landings is justified by the recovery of a 3,500 job industry.  Of course, the recreational fishing industry is largely composed of small businesses which cannot match a single corporation’s ability to shove wads of cash into the pockets of our political class.

The Good, the Bad and the Clown Show.  Four separate bills were introduced into the General Assembly’s 2012 session regarding menhaden management.  The bad bill was SB18 patroned by Sen. Richard Stuart, R-Westmoreland.  Stuart’s bill was a half-assed attempt to have Virginia resign from ASMFC once that organization voted to limit menhaden fishing.  The bill was reported out of committee on a 9 – 6 vote.  However, it was carried over until 2013 by the Finance Committee on a 14-0 vote.  The menhaden have a reprieve of at least another year and Sen Stuart gets to tell his constituents that he tried.  Actually, Stuart is a good enough guy.  He has pressed legislation to reduce phosphate pollution and is sensitive to conservation efforts.  The good bill was SB466 patroned by Sen Ralph Northam, D-Norfolk.  Sen Northam’s bill was the mirror opposite of Sen. Stuart’s bill.  It specifically authorized Virginia’s regulator to adopt the ASMFC’s fisheries plan for menhaden.  It was also continued to 2013 with a 15 – 0 vote in committee.  The General Assembly’s inability to get much of anything done was a blessing.  They’ll get to solicit more money from Omega to join battle next year and I’ll get to put more delicious striped bass, bluefish and weakfish on my table.

– DJ Rippert (friend of the Bay menhaden)

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