Category Archives: Economy

The Dangers of Creeping College Privatization

By Peter Galuszka

Virginia residents have long enjoyed a special advantage with higher education. Tuition at some of the country’s best-rated public universities — the University of Virginia, the College of William and Mary and Virginia Tech — is relatively modest. The schools offer a great deal for parents and students compared with nationally ranked private colleges.

But this advantage is unraveling. The process began seven years ago, when the General Assembly agreed to a deal whereby it would pay not as much for top public universities. In exchange, the schools would get more autonomy, including more freedom to set their own tuitions, capital spending programs and curricula.

The result? A creeping privatization that threatens to undermine the very
advantages that make Virginia’s top public schools what they are.

To be sure, state education bureaucrats and legislators call it not “privatizing” but “restructuring.” This euphemism means the schools will
gradually demand tuition closer to what is charged at the top national, private institutions but won’t have to go through the hassle that true privatization would entail — such as the selling of public property and making good on repaying decades of public investment.

There is some logic to this approach: If Virginia’s elite public colleges
start approaching market rates for tuition, the thinking goes, state money could be freed up to spend on lesser institutions. More financial-aid money would become available. The state could use those resources to reach for its goal of 100,000 more students earning degrees. Since 2005, when the concept was formalized in General Assembly legislation, Virginia Commonwealth University added itself to the list of schools willing to trade funding for autonomy.

The same year that “restructuring” was approved, John T. Casteen II, then the president of U-Va., announced an ambitious campaign to raise $3 billion through fundraising. Most of that has been collected, although the effort to raise so much private money at a public school raised eyebrows. More recently, Taylor Reveley, president of William and Mary, proposed
bringing his school’s tuition levels to market rates
, which, for a nationally rated private institution, would be about $45,000 a year for tuition, room and board. Out-of-state W&M students now pay $44,854 a year, while in-state students pay $22,024.

Reveley notes that Richmond provides only 13 percent of W&M’s funding,
which is way down from the 43 percent of 30 years ago. This trend has been even more pronounced at other elite Virginia public colleges. At the University of Virginia, the state pays less than 8 percent of what the school needs. At Tech, the process has been slower. In 2000, the state provided 58 percent of the school’s needs; today it’s 28 percent.

Reveley argues that if more in-state parents or students paid full freight,
then his school could offer more generous financial-aid packages to middle- and lower-income students. He also believes that as top schools become more self-sustaining, a second tier of Virginia schools could be given more state funding and raise their own academic standings. These would include Old Dominion, George Mason, James Madison, Radford, Longwood and the state’s community college system.

But there is cause to worry about this argument. At present, many complain that lower-income Virginians have been forced to compete with an increasing number of deep-pocketed out-of-staters, whose higher tuition helps to balance the schools’ books. As those schools look to capture more revenue via in-state tuition, they will face strong incentives to accept a greater portion of in-state students with the means to pay all or most of their own way. And even with increased aid, worthy but less affluent students will confront barriers. Some will simply opt for less expensive, less competitive schools; others will emerge from school more deeply in debt.

Such an uneven playing field is contrary to the spirit of a state-funded
higher education: Why should a kid from affluent Fairfax have a better chance at attending U-Va. or W&M than someone with the same grades and test scores from Big Stone Gap?

I’ve noticed this kind of elitism beginning to appear in “Virginia” magazine,
published by the school’s alumni association. Its pages are filled with four-color advertisements hawking multimillion estates mostly in blue-blood
horse country. The message that’s suggested? “If you can’t afford these kinds of properties, then maybe you don’t belong at Mr. Jefferson’s University.”

Privatization is thought of by Virginia conservatives and even some moderates as a panacea for addressing the state’s budget woes while adhering to the state’s dominant anti-tax ideology. Tax hawks, for instance, constantly dodge the need for higher taxes to pay for highways by tossing the problem over to public-private partnerships. But applying the same thinking to public higher education risks undermining the very purpose of such institutions — building the highly educated middle class needed to keep Virginia competitive nationally and globally.

A straight sell-off of state schools isn’t likely. What is possible, says
James Alessio, chief of higher education restructuring at the State Council for Higher Education, is a steady series of tuition hikes in the 5 to 7 percent range. “Within maybe 40 years, you’ll see tuition at the public schools go to $40,000 or $50,000,” he told me.

Once that happens, the stealthy, half-privatization of Virginia’s academic
jewels will be complete, and probably irreversible. One possible solution comes from the University of California at Berkeley, which announced this month that it will cap tuition at 15 percent of what “middle class” families make, defined as $80,000 to $140,000 a year.

Virginia could try something similar. Otherwise, on its current trajectory, the state is fast moving toward a two-tier public college system heavily based on income — the exact opposite of what public higher education is supposed to be.

First published in The Washington Post

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Merry Christmas, Amazon.com!

By Peter Galuszka

Christmas, regretfully, is forced, propagandized consumerism under the guide of market capitalism, albeit in new forms. One is digital sales, of which Amazon is dominant.

Amazon also is about to become a big player in Virginia since it will open distribution centers in Chesterfield and Dinwiddie that will cost $135 million and employ 1,350. Gov. Robert F. McDonnell announced the projects with great flourish. Typically, the Richmond Times-Dispatch played its role as McDonnell’s personal “Pravda” and bannered the news to make us all understand just what a great jobs magnet our photogenic governor is.

To its credit, however, the RTD did break some news. It turns out that Amazon, which is getting $3.5 million from the Governor’s Opportunity Fund and $850,000 from the tobacco fund, will not be required to pay any states sales taxes on the goods its ships to Virginia customers from the two centers.

If you are a traditional, non-digital retailer, you will have to continue charging and paying the usual 5 percent sales tax. You may be competing for the same market with Amazon (2010 sales of $34 billion) but Amazon automatically gets a 5 percent advantage. That, dear shoppers and taxpayers, is Bob McDonnell’s idea of free and unfettered market capitalism.

To be sure, very few states charge a sales tax on goods traded over the Internet. The rationale was, back in the 1990s, was that the Net was waaay too cool to tax. The guys who developed it are waay cool types with a 60s hippie bent, like Bill Gates of Jeff Bezos, and if you make them play by the usual rules, well that’s like, soooo Old Economy. Everyone bought into this nonsense, especially George Allen who lobbied not to tax anything on the Net.

Of course, a lot of these Net heros are really conservatives or libertarians who don’t wear neckties. They are not out for the betterment of mankind, rather the betterment of their bottom lines. Meanwhile,  routine mortals, such as journalists like me,  have seen our free lance pay plummet because we are forced to accept far less or nothing at all for our content posted on the Web rather than in print. Anyway, that’s my private hell.

This kind of “The Net is Sacred” thinking is McDonnell’s excuse to land needed jobs. No argument about the need. Dinwiddie is mostly rural and can use jobs. Chesterfield has an imbalance of too many subdivisions and not enough industry.

The hypocrisy of the McDonnells is that while they play free market and tight budget and stick it to the schools and retirees and Medicaid recipients, they have no trouble handing out goodies to big firms like Amazon, that have no trouble taking care of themselves. Other states seem to be driving tougher bargains than Virginia. Tennessee got a similarly-sized distribution center from Amazon but also starts getting its sales tax from Amazon in 2014.

Also, it’s not as if big distribution centers are unheard of in Virginia. Back in the early part of the past decade, China was exploding with exports of consumer goods. Hampton Roads was booming. Mid-Atlantic distribution centers were going up from Suffolk and others spots for Wal-Mart, QVC, Target and other big box, mass retailers. I believe they did have to pay the 5 percent sales tax.  Of course, the recession cooled that trend and Hampton Roads is stuck with the big box centers while competitors like Baltimore and Savannah eat Virginia’s lunch with other cargo. That’s another story, however.

Among the groups rightly angry with the big Mickey D are members of Richmond’s Retail Merchants Association, who still have to pay that pesky 5 percent sales tax. “The bottom line is that we just want a level playing field,” says Nancy C. Thomas, the group’s CEO and president.

Well, not in Virginia and not with Mickey D.

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Richmond, Get Your Act Together

by James A. Bacon

The Richmond region has never been an “it” Sunbelt metropolis like Atlanta, Austin, Charlotte or Raleigh-Durham, but it did plug away pretty consistently, racking up better-than-average economic growth year after year. That was fine by most of us natives who enjoyed the fruits of moderate prosperity without the hassles of super-heated growth. But the time for complacency is over. We need to get our act together.

Two new reports drive the message home.

First, the Brookings Institution’s Metro Monitor shows that Richmond ranked in the bottom quintile for economic performance among the nation’s largest metropolitan areas in the 3rd quarter of 2011.

A longer-term measure of economic potential, “Best Performing Cities of 2011,” published by the Milken Institute, measures “where America’s jobs are created and sustained.” Richmond ranked among the Top 25 losers, diving from a 79th ranking last year to 119.

What’s going on? There are many transient reasons but one enduring one: insufficient innovation. The Richmond economy has given birth to relatively few fast-growth “gazelles,” the midsized companies that create the most jobs and wealth in the U.S. economy. Why would that be? Part  of the answer is that we have no dominant industry clusters that spark innovation. But the problem, I think, runs deeper. Richmond is late to the game in talking about innovation ta all. The conversation about how to breed creativity has finally begun in earnest, but we’re 10 or 20 years behind more progressive communities.

When I left Virginia Business magazine in 2002, I helped create the program and line up speakers for a conference, “Virginia 2020,” which highlighted strategies for creating economic prosperity through innovation and productivity. We had great, cutting-edge topics and an excellent line-up of speakers. And the event was a total flop. It was embarrassing — no, humiliating. There were a number of reasons for the fiasco. It didn’t help to hold the event on the first anniversary of 9/11. It didn’t help that the event organizer had credibility issues relating to a previous business failure. (Close-knit Richmonders are less forgiving of failure than inhabitants of other regions.) But I’m also convinced that a lot of people just didn’t “get” it. Innovation? Productivity? In an era before Richard Florida warmed up the audience with his brilliant thesis about the rise of the creative class, people simply didn’t understand what we were driving at.

Times have changed, and so has the conversation. Slowly — painfully slowly — but surely, we’re getting some things right. People are moving back downtown into the region’s creative core. The City of Richmond is fostering the creation of a vibrant arts district. Cool development is taking place along the downtown Canal. The Virginia Biotechnology Research Park is gaining critical mass. The region is finally coalescing around a vision for the James River as an incredible recreation and entertainment asset. We have vibrant cultural events, from the French Film Festival (the largest outside France) to the Folk Festival to the James River Writer’s Festival.

As Richmond slowly morphs into the kind of community the creative class will find attractive, the next generation of corporate leaders is emerging. Health Diagnostics Laboratory, which identifies risk factors and biomarkers for personalized health, is a phenomenal success story. So is Bostwick Laboratories, which provides world-class clinical pathology laboratory services. And so is Tridium, whose Niagara Framework has become the global-standard software platform for building automation systems. Those are my favorites; there are others. We just need a few more.

I am confident that Richmond eventually will reinvent itself. The renaissance will not come from city elites acting on recommendations reflecting conventional thinking and packaged in some highly paid consultant’s report. It won’t come from building a new baseball stadium or establishing a (semi) high-speed rail link to Washington, D.C., or trying to copy some other city’s success story. It will bubble from the ground up and the results will surprise us all.

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Hold Hands, Sing Kumbaya and Avoid Taxes

The least studied, hence least understood, component of 21st-century America’s political economy may well be the rise of the not-for-profit sector of the economy. While real GDP grew by 38% from 1995 to 2010, real total revenues reported by charitable nonprofits registered with the IRS grew by 65%. Nationally, medical services and education, two vast sectors dominated by not-for-profits, accounted for 15.1% of all employment in 2010.

A new study, “Property Tax Exemption for Nonprofits and Revenue Implications for Cities,” explores the impact of the growth of the not-for-profit sector upon municipal finances. Not-for-profit exemption from property taxes can blow a big hole in municipal budgets, especially in metropolitan areas such as Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Boston where medical services and education exceed 20% of employment (and probably a  higher percentage of economic activity). Arguing that the rise of not-for-profits displaces a greater tax burden on homeowners and for-profit businesses, the authors present a variety of arrangements, from municipal-service user fees to Payments In Lieu Of Taxes (PILOTs), to avoid the hollowing out of the tax base.

In Virginia, the challenge is particularly acute in jurisdictions such as Blacksburg that are dominated by a large educational institution, or in the case of Charlottesville, by a large educational institution coupled with a large not-for-profit health care system.

The rise of the not-for-profit economy is significant in other ways not touched upon in the paper. E M Risse refers to not-for-profits as “institutions” in his Estate Matrix, as opposed to “agencies” (government) and “enterprises” (corporations). Institutions include, among others, foundations, labor unions, professional and trade associations, universities, hospitals, museums, political parties, political action committees, conservation advocates, chambers of commerce and other consumption advocates, churches and think tanks.

A growing “institutional” economy means that an ever-larger chunk of the supposedly private sector is exempt both from the wealth-extracting exertions of the federal government and from the Darwinian, for-profit imperative to innovate, boost productivity or die. Not-for-profit status is a great tool to channel the economy’s energy into socially beneficial uses. But the not-for-profit-ication of U.S. society does not augur well for economic dynamism, growth of the tax base and fiscal sustainability.

– JAB

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Why People Are Pissed

There are good reasons why the American people are angry at the big bankers on Wall Street. The latest news is the revelation by way of Bloomberg that the Federal Reserve Bank discretely lent up to $1.2 trillion to United States banks at below-market interest rates during the height of the financial meltdown, a gift that translated into roughly $13 billion of income. There was no transparency to the action, and no accountability. This subsidy came on top of the subsidies made available through the Troubled Assets Relief Program.

With their purses thus padded by public intervention, executives in the financial sector went on to pay themselves obscene compensation packages. (The New York Times estimated pay packages averaged $595,000 per employee at Goldman Sachs and $463,000 for JPMorgan Chase.) While millions of Americans were losing their jobs, scrimping by on part-time work and coping with wage cutbacks, they were also paying for the privilege of enriching the masters of the universe whose great claim to business acumen was the ability to borrow and risk extraordinary sums of money, pocket the gains when they won their bets, and socialize their losses when they lost.

This is not free-market capitalism. This is heads-I-win-tails-you-lose crony capitalism. Wall Street does provide a legitimate and valuable function for society in allocating capital. But it was a party to a grotesque mis-allocation of hundreds of billions, if not trillions, of dollars in the 2000s, and the Attilas and Tamerlanes in pinstripes who pillaged the nation should be prostrating themselves in gratitude that they live in a country where the peasants don’t string up their oppressors by the gibbet.

Of course, the mercy bestowed upon these wealth destroyers may have something to do with the fact that the financial sector has donated $130 million so far in 2011-2012 to Congressional and presidential candidates of both parties, including President Obama. Donate millions to the politicians, reap billions in ill-gotten gains. That’s a pretty good Return on Investment.

– JAB

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The Era of Foreclosed Possibilities

The 2007 recession marked the end of the era of Mass OverConsumption. Suburban sprawl is over. It’s time to think about what comes next – and to adapt state and local government policies to new realities.

by James A. Bacon

The United States reached a historic inflection point during the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2008. Many politicians and pundits anticipated that the economy would quickly right itself, as it had after every other recession since World War II. But it didn’t. From massive deficit spending to “quantitative easing,” federal authorities have tried stimulating the economy through time-tested methods of pumping up aggregate demand and lowering interest rates. But the economy shows no sign of returning to normal – and the future doesn’t look any brighter. The national debt, now surpassing $15 trillion, has grown so enormous that the dead weight of interest payments will constitute an increasing drag on the economy for years to come.

Historians will look back upon the recent recession as a bookend on an epoch in American history, the period beginning after World War II in which politics and the economy were organized around a bipartisan consensus to promote mass consumption or, as E M Risse prefers to call it, Mass OverConsumption. Politicians of both political parties competed on their ability to deliver economic growth, an expanded safety net and material comfort. Every American should own his own home. Everyone should be able to go to college. Everyone should own a car filled with cheap gas. Everyone should have high quality medical care. Everyone should enjoy a long and comfortable retirement.

The problem, simply put, is that we are running out of money. That’s not an easy truth to accept. Since the recession, politics has been marked by political gridlock in the nation’s capital and the search for scape goats in the hinterlands. The populist Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street movements have fixed their wrath upon ruling elites who plunder the nation by manipulating a corrupt political system. They have ample reason to do so. But in their more reflective moments, most Americans would admit that they have brought some of their troubles upon themselves by living beyond their means, both individually and collectively. Consumers maintained living standards by borrowing more than they could afford. Government maintained spending by borrowing more than it could afford.

Consumers were the first to collide with reality. The debt-fueled, consumer-driven economy came crashing down in 2007 and it cannot be reconstituted. The party is over, the hang-overs are throbbing, and someone has to mop up the puke on the floor. Meanwhile, it is increasingly apparent to all that the debt-fueled, government-driven economy is headed for the same fate, if not worse.

While the fall’s raucous presidential debate has focused the electorate’s attention on the fiscal constraints of the federal government, similar currents are running through state and local governments. States, cities and counties, too, are grappling with a structural budget gap stemming from chronically weak revenues and the public’s unremitting demands for more services. Local governments are more restricted in their ability to borrow to pay for spending, so their financial plight is more immediate and more pressing. To date, the primary fault line has formed over the issue of public-employee pensions and benefits. But other changes taking place at the level of cities, counties and towns are even more profound and unsettling.

Core state-and-local institutions invented or perfected in post-World War II Epoch of Unlimited Possibilities are rusting, rattling and running on fumes. Schools are graduating illiterates. Four-year college tuitions are the size of house mortgages. Health care inflation is pushing citizens, businesses and governments to the brink of insolvency. And the nation’s infrastructure, once the envy of the world, is crumbling all around. Call it the Era of Foreclosed Possibilities.

Across the country, states, cities and counties are ill equipped to deliver their contribution to the American dream. Nowhere is the crunch more evident than in the cluster of issues associated with “growth management” – the ability to accommodate growing populations with affordable housing supported by roads, transit, water, sewer, fire, police, schools and other public services. Just as Americans had come to expect an endless list of benefits from the federal government without fully paying for them, they developed entirely unrealistic expectations about what state and local governments could afford. Middle-class Americans wanted to live in neighborhoods of detached, single-family houses set on big lots. They wanted untrammeled mobility, meaning a car for every, and they wanted “the government” to build a road network that would allow them to drive anywhere, anytime, without undue congestion. And they wanted to keep taxes low.

The paradigm that guided growth and development for six decades has hit a dead end. State and local governments can no longer afford to build infrastructure for and deliver services to a population scattered over hundreds of millions of acres in scattered, low-density, disconnected human settlement patterns – commonly referred to as “suburban sprawl.”

Decades of experience have demonstrated that “sprawl” is fiscally unsustainable. The communities that have arisen from sprawl aren’t even what people prefer. Americans tolerated dysfunctional settlement patterns because they seemed preferable to the high taxes, troubled schools and horrendous crime in the core cities. But urban flight is a spent force. In healthy metropolitan areas, there is ample evidence that household preferences are changing and the flow of people out of the urban core is more than matched by a migration back into it. Jobs, especially the best paying ones, remain clustered within a relatively tight radius of the metropolitan core. Cultural attractions such as the arts, museums and restaurants loom larger as lifestyle magnets for the growing ranks of empty nesters. Frightful crime rates that once repelled middle-class households are showing marked declines.

Meanwhile suburban counties have developed intractable problems of their own: traffic congestion, overcrowded schools and increasing pressure on tax rates. Even before the 2007 recession, few Americans would have described life in “suburbia” as idyllic. Read more.

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The Wonk Salon, November 21, 2011

U.S. Industries Need a “Competitiveness Audit”
Progressive Policy Institute
Local, state and federal government need a “competitiveness audit” of American industries to guide the allocation of economic development resources. Target those industries that have a chance of becoming economically competitive and write off the losers.

New Technologies More Effective than Compact Development at Cutting Greenhouse Gases

Reason Foundation
If your goal is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, new technologies such as hydrogen fuel cells and plug-in electric cars paired with electricity from hydro-power would accomplish the goal far more cost effectively than mandating more compact development.

South Carolina Colleges Too Expensive, Graduation Rates Too Low
South Carolina Policy Council
Everybody’s applying a critical eye now to state systems of higher education, even South Carolina. The interests of individual institutions outweigh those of the state.

Time to Focus on Community College Graduation Rates
Center for an Urban Future
Community colleges are a key vehicle for upward social mobility, but New York’s are falling short of the potential. Increasing the graduation rate by 10 percentage points could give a $71 million one-year boost to the state and students.

How to Make College More Affordable: Expand Tax Credits
Third Way
College is increasingly unaffordable. So let’s do more of what caused the problem in the first place — increase tuition subsidies, this time through a consolidation and expansion of tax credits.

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If You’ve Lost David Brooks, You’ve Lost America


When keepers of the conventional wisdom and guardian of the status quo like David Brooks say the United States is becoming another Greece, you can pretty well assume that we’re becoming another Greece. The political divide between Ds and Rs is so wide that the New York Times columnist can’t see how the $1 trillion-a-year budget gap can be bridged.

That’s pretty much the conclusion that I came to a year and a half ago when I was writing “Boomergeddon.” Back then, the idea that the U.S. might one day default upon its debt seemed laughable — the raving of a Tea Party fanatic. Now Mr. Establishment, David Brooks, is resigning himself to the inevitable. “The short answer,” he says, “is, welcome Greece. We’re going to be Greece.”

Just a refresher of what I wrote before the 2010 election:

Tea Partiers may propel the Rs to electoral gains in November, but it’s not clear that the Elephant Clan has the will to defy the organized special interests in Washington, D.C., much less to make transformative reforms that can return the country to a sustainable fiscal trajectory. As long as Obama is president, until January 2013 at the very least, even the eviction of the Donkey Clan as the majority party in Congress will result in little change for two more years. By then, the nation will be $3 trillion deeper in hock, the economy will be as hooked as ever upon Keynesian spending stimulus to keep growing, society’s “unmet needs” will be as acute as always, the evaporation of the Medicare Part B trust fund will be looming on the horizon, and foreign investors will be even more antsy about the ability of the U.S. to repay its debt.”

Taxpayers may vehemently oppose deficit spending and the mounting national debt, but those who pay no federal income taxes — about 43 percent of the population, according to the center-left Tax Policy Center — will oppose with equal vehemence any move to cut entitlements, and both parties will demagogue anyone who proposes to touch Social Security and Medicare. Just look at what the Democrats did to George Bush’s proposal to reform Social Security, and observe how Republicans accused Obamacare of undermining Medicare. Any change, if it comes, will likely be incremental and insufficient to divert the federal government from its downward slide.” …

Although it may be theoretically possible to extricate ourselves … the prospects that the political class, either of the two party/clans or even a majority of the American people will be willing to make the necessary sacrifices are remote.

Once again, I repeat my refrain that the only bastion of functional government in the post-Boomergeddon world will be those forward-looking state and local governments that saw the calamity coming and acted aggressively to shore up their finances and reinvent core institutions, such as transportation, land use, schools, higher ed and health care, upon which our well being depends. The Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street are nothing compared to the unrest to come when the financial markets begin dictating U.S. fiscal policy. They are no more than a warm-up act for what’s to come. They’re not even that, they’re the roadies who walk onto the stage and tinker with the amplifiers before the warm up act. Repent, sinners, the judgment day (of the financial markets) soon will be at hand!

– JAB

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IG of the Day: Innovation in the 5th Federal Reserve District

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. (Click on map for more legible image.)

The U.S. Economic Development Administration measures a region’s innovation performance relative to that of the nation based on component indices of human capital, economic dynamics, productivity and employment and economic well being. The first two measures are inputs to innovation, the second two are outputs that reflect the results.

The Washington-Baltimore area is the largest cluster of innovation in the district, followed by the North Carolina research triangle. The one other standout is Montgomery County, Va., home to Virginia Tech. (For the second time today, eat your hearts out, Wahoos! And I say that as a Wahoo myself.)

The rest of the region, including Richmond, Hampton Roads and Charlottesville, perform slightly below the national average for innovation.

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Elephants Squeak By

By Peter Galuszka

Virginia’s Republicans failed to replicate their national party’s success in last year’s mid-term national elections and barely squeaked by to win both houses of the state General Assembly.

The 20-20 split in the state Senate hung on a spare 222 votes in a Spotsylvania County race. By conceding his election race Democratic State Sen. R. Edward Houck does give Republican Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling the opportunity to cast the deciding vote on critical issues in the Senate.

Overall, however, Tuesday voting results are hardly a mandate for the GOP, despite how much pro-GOP commentators such as the publisher of this blog and Wall Street Journal columnists wish it to be so. The key is how the Gov. Robert F. McDonnell and other GOP leaders intend to use their new power in the legislature.

Possible agendas are not promising. McDonnell probably wants to change the state worker retirement system in ways that screw state workers and dump more costs back on them. He’s already raided the system indirectly by deferring payments the state is obliged to make in a smoke and mirrors attempt to present the state with budget that is in the black. Doing so lets him cast himself as a hotshot new Republican governor so he can pursue national ambitions.

He’s going to try to somehow change public schools, but he has already cut critical education spending and Virginia children are suffering the results with their worsening performance on national tests.

He might try to revive, once again, his efforts to privatize ABC stores but even with the seven new Republican state senators that’s going to be a battle since many GOP legislators abandoned McDonnell in his earlier efforts.

What is likely is more of the same corporate pork barrel we’ve seen for big corporations and Hollywood moguls like Steven Spielberg and West Coast defense industries. Spielberg got millions from the state film office to make a Lincoln movie in Richmond where the payback to the state seems to be limited to actress Sally Fields patronizing cute downtown and Cary Street restaurants in the capital. As far as corporate welfare, expect a new charge to lift the ban on uranium mining by a group of rich Southside farmers and Canadian businessmen who have already been taking legislators on suspicious, all-expenses-paid trips to uranium mining hotspots such as Paris.

In other areas, there’s not much McDonnell can hope to accomplish. His dream of erecting dozens of oil derricks off the Virginia caps to make Virginia “The Energy Capital of the East Coast” have come to naught. The U.S. Department of the Interior left Virginia off the list for new leases for at least a few more years.

The way appeals courts are running against right-wing Atty. Gen. Kenneth Cuccinelli’s efforts to block Obamacare, McDonnell will be hard-pressed to do much to further challenge the law which faces the ultimate constitutionality test in the U.S. Supreme Court. The ball here is no longer in Virginia’s court.

Lastly, despite McDonnell’s efforts to make himself over from staunch social conservative to moderate, the election results Tuesday have a conspicuous nut factor. Corey Stewart, the Prince William County politician who wants to make Virginia the next Alabama in terms of racist anti-immigrant laws, won. Loudoun County has a completely GOP board, including homophobe Eugene Delgaudio. And, ultra-nut Dick Black is heading for the Senate.

True, the Democrats did poorly and Obama is weak. But the real message is they are not as weak as the Republicans wished.

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