Category Archives: Economy

The Cooch’s Freak Show Dream Team

cooch dream teamBy Peter Galuszka

Ken Cuccinelli just can’t keep away from the bizarre, but perhaps that’s what makes him what he is.

He stages a convention instead of a primary to neuter Bill Bolling. And since a convention is smaller, it draws more GOP hard-righters than  June bugs on a humid night and they succeed in getting Bishop E.W. Jackson and Mark Obenshain selected. They underline the social conservatism that turns millions off and makes Virginia the butt of jokes on late night talk shows.

The Bishop is an even bigger gay basher than Cuccinelli and says that Planned Parenthood is responsible for more fatalities among African-Americans than the Ku Klux Klan. This may be new to a Harvard Law graduate, but women of any color have a legal right to an abortion within limits. The U.S. Supreme Court said so. Look under Roe vs. Wade.

Then there is the attorney general candidate Mark Obenshain of the legacy Republican family. He proposed and withdrew legislation to require any woman in Virginia who miscarries a pregnancy to report it to the police. The idea is so repulsive it is beyond words. A woman may have miscarried to her great sorrow due to medical reasons and then would have to go through the added horror of having to report to the police? Yes, this comes from a cabal that otherwise wants to keep the government out of your lives. Even Josef Stalin wouldn’t think of this.

What does the dream team have to say on the many policy issues facing a troubled state? We have a bunch of lame and poorly thought out tax cuts and Cooch playing hardware store populist. Cuccinelli was against McDonnnell’s mammoth road building tax plan and has since backed away from his opposition.

Is this good news for Terry McAuliffe, who has plenty of issues of his own? Yes, I would think. Cuccinelli doesn’t need the fringe hard right voters. He’s already got them in his pocket. He needs the center and Mark and the Bishop aren’t going to be much help there.

It boggles the mind how Virginia is so schizo. It is attracting hundreds of thousands of newcomers who are running the state’s economy and are dragging it into the 21st century world. Yet the Republicans put up people like this who aren’t dragging us to Virginia’s recent dark past but to medieval times.

Global investors might think twice or three times before investing in this freak show.

What the Clams Know: Warming Waters

atlantic surf clamBy Peter Galuszka

Are warming seas forcing fish to migrate to cooler waters?

That’s the thrust of an intriguing report in Nature magazine as covered in this morning’s Post. The impacts on the seafood industry are already playing out. New England fishermen after cod and haddock report having to move farther north to catch them.

There are impacts in the Mid-Atlantic as well. According to The Post, warmer waters from Delaware to Virginia are pushing Atlantic surf clams to move farther north, and this has resulted in the closure of a clam processing plant in Virginia. Atlantic surf clams are a popular variety used for fried dishes or in chowders

I tried and failed to find out what plant it was. I did find one that was shut down in recent years near Mappsville on Virginia’s Eastern Shore but could not confirm the reason. The firm, Eastern Shore Seafood, was bought by Maryland-based Seawatch International which later shut the plant down.

I spoke with Mike Hutt, executive director of the Virginia Marine Products Board who had seen The Post story but couldn’t confirm details of any related plant closings or the impact of warming waters regionally

It would seem that warmer waters will add further stress to the region’s troubled seafood industry, especially for certain species. I’m not certain how it would affect favorites such as blue crabs that seem to thrive in tepid waters much farther south or oysters, which are struggling make a comeback in Chesapeake Bay. My guess, and I am no expert, is that other prized species such as bluefish and rockfish (striped bass to Northerners) might change their migration patterns because of climate change.

If the Nature research is correct, the fish may be sending us a powerful message that many haven’t figured out yet.

Data Shows Hospital Billing Outrages

Hospital BillBy Peter Galuszka

It’s long been fascinating how Big Hospitals, linked with Medicare, Big Pharma and Big Managed Care, have come up with an extraordinarily convoluted system of setting prices for various hospital procedures.

There is plenty of nonsense about including on this blog about bringing “free market efficiencies” to health care, as if human health is something like a widget or a jet engine fan blade that can be made cheaper and faster if you only got the right consulting firm to hit the right formula and the right software and the right system and the right package and kept the evil government out of it, everything would come up roses.

So to see how stupid and impractical the idea is, I was amused to see the big data base release on hospital cost charges for various procedures by the federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. It covers what was billed and what was paid by hundreds of hospitals for 100 procedures.

Big Health Care did not want the data released because they prefer working in an office with the shutters drawn as they try to game the Medicare system by overbilling and then cutting secretive deals with Big Managed Care over what they’ll really charge for group policy holders and screw the rest.

President Obama had the CMMS release the data to show what a sham setting hospital prices is, although it is doubtful that ObamaCare that goes into full effect next year will change things much. I believe more and more that socialized medicine is the only way to go.

Anyway, here is a short piece I did for Style Weekly that looks at what Richmond area hospitals actually charge for Medicare and what they get:

If you’re a Medicare patient and need a major joint replaced — perhaps a hip — consider the initial cost.

In 2011, HCA Healthcare’s CJW Medical Center billed Medicare $117,477 and got about $12,926 from the government. Virginia Commonwealth University Medical Center billed $55,327 and got $20,308. Bon Secours Memorial Hospital charged $53,195, and got $12,458.

Sound screwy? It is. For all the talk about a free-market system, setting health care prices is anything but.

Instead of open bidding, think of hospital officials meeting behind closed doors, strategizing how much to charge to get reimbursed. Medicare, which usually represents about half of a hospital’s revenues, sets a fixed rate for various procedures. But hospitals can’t by law offer a specific set of prices for just Medicare.

So they factor in other price variables such as what insurance companies might pay on a percentage basis. A big insurer may pay only 20 percent of charges or what they negotiate privately. That automatically jacks up the asking price. Another variable is getting financial aid to help pick up the bill for indigents.

Moreover, higher prices don’t necessarily mean better quality, says Michael Spine, senior vice president for business development at Bon Secours Health System.

What results is an incredibly skewed set of prices for essentially the same procedures. That’s the takeaway from a survey by the federal Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services, which shows what hospitals billed Medicare — and what Medicare paid — for procedures in 100 categories in 2011. The Obama administration released the survey to drum up support for the Affordable Health Care Act, which takes full effect next year.

A glance at the survey shows that CJW Medical Center was by far the priciest on some procedures, but also reimbursed the least.

Take kidney-tract infections, for example. CJW filed $30,552 while MCV asked for $19,819. Yet MCV got more. For some heart-failure cases, HCA billed $40,274 while St. Mary’s Hospital, owned by nonprofit Bon Secours, billed $18,460. And St. Mary’s was reimbursed more. Go figure.

Because insurance companies base policies around what Medicare is billed and will pay for, just about everyone’s affected. Those without insurance could be stuck with the entire bill, although they can receive treatment free or through discounts.

“Hospital charges vary because they reflect the individual hospital’s mission, the patient population it serves and the subsidies necessary to provide essential public services,” says Anne Buckley, a spokeswoman for VCU Medical Center.

Mark Foust, a spokesman for HCA, says a “patient’s medical coverage — rather than charges — is what primarily drives what he or she pays a hospital.”

HCA and VCU help poor patients with their bills through discount or charity programs. So does Bon Secours, says Spine, who adds that releasing the results of such surveys is an important step in moving from “legacy” pricing to something more transparent.

Next on Obama’s list: releasing surveys of physicians’ fees.

Cuccinelli makes progress with new ad


The Wonder Years.  Despite his fetish for Mayberry-like settings, Ken Cuccinelli makes some good progress with his latest TV ad.  Set in what looks like a local hardware store Cuccinelli talks about cutting taxes for small businesses and the middle class by eliminating tax breaks for the well connected. Candidate Cuccinelli is still short on details.  However, the general philosophy of lowering tax rates by closing loopholes is a good one.

Chap stick.  I am going to assume that the loopholes Cuccinelli hopes to close are the endless and permanent giveaways engineered by the Imperial Clown Show in Richmond.  Cuccinelli hasn’t specified what loopholes he’ll try to close but there has been increasing scrutiny of the Virginia General Assembly playing Santa Claus for their friends.  Jim Bacon wrote about the disgrace of the Orion Air giveaway.  Sen Chap Petersen (D-Fairfax), one of the non-clowns in the General Assembly, went as far as proposing a constitutional amendment that would cap all special tax breaks at five years.  The tax breaks would end after five years unless specifically extended by the General Assembly.  Petersen’s exercise in common sense (SJ281) lost by a 12 – 27 vote in the senate.

Across the aisle.  One of the most interesting things about the SJ281 vote was the  composition of those voting “yea”.  Joining Petersen were NoVa Republicans like Dick Black, rural Democrats like Creigh Deeds, Republican Attorney General hopeful Mark Obershain and Democratic Lt Governor candidate Ralph Northam.  In fact, the votes for SJ281 pretty much lays out an inventory of non-clowns vs clowns in the Virginia Senate.  Sadly, the clowns outnumber the non-clowns by more than two to one.

Not on my tax break.  I am sure that there are plenty of special interests who believe that their tax breaks are sacrosanct.  I have heard that some environmental groups were worried that SJ281 could have threatened the tax breaks that come from putting land into conservation easements.  Of course, the General assembly could simply vote to extend those tax breaks once every five years.

How much?  If these tax breaks and tax credits are in Cuccinelli’s gun sights he may be able to afford a sizable tax cut by rolling them back.  Stunningly, the Virginia Pilot estimates that various tax credits and carve outs cost the Commonwealth $12.5B per year.  Cuccinelli could cherry pick only the worst giveaways and easily fund his proposed $1.4B per year tax cut.

Lemons into lemonade.  The recent scandals in Richmond have escalated the suspicion of Virginians that their state government is somewhere between sleazy and outright corrupt.  Cuccinelli himself is immersed in a mini-scandal around Star Scientific.  These scandals are small potatoes compared to the billions and billions given away to the well connected by the General Assembly.  Cuccinelli can go from goat to hero by taking on these freebies.

- D.J. Rippert  

Virginia: Pretty Darned Enterprising

enterprising_statesby James A. Bacon

For those who haven’t yet succumbed to state-ranking overload, here’s one more, this from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Its fourth annual Enterprising States report ranks states for the degree to which they are “best positioned to grow, create jobs and prosper in the coming five to ten years.”

The Chamber examines each state for 33 measures, which it organizes in six broad categories. Virginia snags a No. 5 spot for overall performance. Here is the breakdown by category:

Economic performance — 5th
Exports — 46th
Innovation and entrepreneurship — 3rd
Business climate — 16th
Talent pipeline — 5th
Infrastructure — 24th

Three of the top five performing states — North Dakota, Texas and Wyoming — are all enjoying natural resource booms. Of course, it could be said that Virginia has benefited from a federal spending boom. Here’s what the report says about the Old Dominion:

Virginia takes 1st place in our measure of general standard of living: median family income adjusted for cost of living. The state’s steady performance—ranking between 14th and 23rd in the other six performance measures—lands it 5th overall in growth and performance. Partly owing to its proximity to the nation’s capital, Virginia is a national leader in professional, scientific, and technical services. Virginia grew that sector 37% over the past decade — impressive growth for an already large sector.

And here is what Governor Bob McDonnell had to say:

Creating the best environment for private-sector job creation and innovation has been the top focus of our administration. Since we took office, our unemployment rate has fallen from 7.3 percent to 5.3 percent, the lowest rate in the Southeast and the second lowest east of the Mississippi. This report confirms that when it comes to supporting startups and new jobs, Virginia is a national leader and continuing to make substantive progress. But there is more to do. We have continued last year’s “Year of the Entrepreneur” campaign in Virginia with the ongoing “innoVAte” initiative, including an undergraduate business plan competition that brought some of the most promising startup ideas from 21 of Virginia’s colleges and universities to Richmond yesterday. Innovators like the young people who pitched their business plans to investors yesterday will form the backbone of a culture of entrepreneurship in Virginia that will continue to make the Commonwealth one of the best places to live, raise a family, and find a good job.

Bacon’s bottom line: To what extent can McDonnell, or any other governor, take credit for Virginia’s strong performance? That’s a really sticky question. Clearly, the national economy is a major factor in Virginia’s performance, and so is proximity to the federal spending machine in Washington, D.C. The boom in major industries, especially the energy and agricultural sectors, also has driven state performance recently — in Virginia’s case, an energy-importing state, acting as a drag on performance. It’s difficult to disentangle the effect of state or regional policy, and any claims must be taken with a grain of salt.

My first rule of economic development is, “Do no harm.” And other than raising taxes to crank up spending on transportation, McDonnell has done no harm. The initiatives he highlights in the prepared statement above have little more than symbolic value. What he has not done — he hasn’t passed a lot of expensive regulations or spending programs — is more important that what he has. And his record on that score is fairy good.

De-Gas Stationification

Endangered species? A gas station on Wilson Boulevard in Arlington.

You’ve no doubt seen the phrase, “degasification,” which refers to the removal of dissolved gases from liquids. Now modern American society is experiencing de-gas stationification, or the removal of gas stations from expensive urban settings.

The Washington Post highlights a trend in the Washington metropolitan area in which gas stations are disappearing from the inner suburbs.  “In Arlington County,” writes Katherine Shaver, ” four gas stations have given way to taller buildings in the Rosslyn-Ballston corridor over the past decade, and last year, a Shell station closed on Columbia Pike, where the county is planning a streetcar line.” Gas stations are shutting down in Bethesda, Md., as well. In one stretch of Wisconsin Ave., four stations have shut down and the remaining two are being eyed for redevelopment.

Gas stations have been vanishing in cities like New York and downtown Washington for 20 years, Shaver notes, but the phenomenon seems to be spreading geographically, and accelerating due to a decline in gasoline consumption driven by more fuel-efficient cars, a lagging economy and demographic trends in which Millennials and Baby Boomers are driving less. The phenomenon is national in scope:

Nationwide, the number of gas stations has dropped from about 170,000 in 2002 to 156,065 in 2012, according to National Petroleum News. The District had 87 last year, compared with 119 a decade earlier, and Virginia lost about 1,000 stations — a drop from 4,981 to 3,939 — in that time. Last year, Maryland had 1,990 stations, almost 400 fewer than a decade earlier.

But an unappreciated factor could be rising land prices and property taxes. Gas stations take up a lot of space, and the land they sit on often can be more profitably used for offices or high-rises.

The trend raises a big issue for people who rely upon their automobiles for mobility and access. Sometimes they have to drive out of the way to reach a gas station. Surviving gas stations have more market power to price more aggressively. If de-gas stationification continus, the cost of automobile ownership will increase while the convenience of driving will decline. In dense urban areas with high land prices, all other things being equal, the trend could accelerate the shift to alternate modes of transport.

– JAB

How to Create 79,000 Jobs without Really Trying

Norfolk unemployment office. Photo credit: Virginian-Pilot.

by James A. Bacon

In the previous post I discussed Virginia’s sluggish economic performance and the power of institutional inertia to discourage fresh thinking about economic development. One exception is a recent report published by the Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy (TJI).

Calling upon the resources of Chmura Economics & Analytics and the Beacon Hill Institute, TJI President Michael Thompson asked if it were possible to restructure Virginia’s tax code to spur private investment and job creation.

In “Tax Restructuring in Virginia: A Revenue Neutral Path for Improving Our Economy,” Thompson’s team explored nine scenarios for eliminating three hated business taxes — the Business Professional Occupation Licensing (BPOL) tax, the Machine and Tool (M&T) tax and the Merchants Capital (MC) tax — and replacing lost revenue by means of a restructured sales tax.

According to the report, the optimum scenario would increase employment by 79,000 jobs over the baseline projection, bolster investment by $287 million, and pump up real state Gross Domestic Product by $8.4 billion. The key features:

  • Eliminate the BPOL, M&T and MC taxes
  • Eliminate the lowest bracket in the personal income tax ($0 to $3,000), and cut other income tax brackets by 10%
  • Expand sales tax to cover all exempt sectors of the service economy, except health care.

We can debate the particulars. How good are Thompson’s data and how valid is his economic simulation model? Can the results be improved upon by considering other scenarios. And, my main concern, would we be creating problems for ourselves by taking state tax revenues (the sales and income taxes) to reimburse local governments for lost BPOL, M&T and MC revenues? Governor Jim Gilmore did something very similar in partially phasing out the car tax. How did that work out?

Those issues are all worthy of discussion. But let’s look at the big picture. What other initiatives can you name that (a) are tax neutral and (b) have the potential to create 79,000 jobs over the next five years? If TJI’s idea creates only half the jobs forecast by its economic model, this idea is well worth pursuing.

Virginia’s Big Metros Lagged in 2012 Job Creation

Winded

by James A. Bacon

Has Virginia already felt the impact of the slowdown in federal spending? That would seem to be the obvious conclusion from 2012 metropolitan-area job data released last month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and highlighted by Aaron M. Renn on the New Geography blog.

After years and years of growing more rapidly than the United States economy, the Washington metropolitan area scored 10th from bottom among the nation’s 51 largest regions in 2012. The number of jobs increased by 32,200, a 1.07% increase for the year.

Hampton Roads, did even worse, scoring 7th from bottom — putting it in the same company as rust-belt basket cases like St. Louis, Rochester, Providence, Buffalo and Philadelphia. The metro area created only 6,100 jobs, an increase of 0.83%. Like the Washington region, Hampton Roads is heavily dependent upon military spending. The difference is, it lacks the dynamic technology sector that, one might hope, can take up the slack.

The Richmond region scored in the muddled middle, creating 12,500 jobs, for a 0.83% increase. The virtue of Richmond’s economy is that it is diversified. The downside of Richmond’s economy is that it lacks a star industry cluster to lead job growth.

Bacon’s bottom line: Two key points:

First: These job numbers reinforce the fears that I have expressed repeatedly that job and population growth in Northern Virginia is veering from trend lines and that long-term forecasts that form the basis of future transportation demand are, at best, highly speculative, and at worst, terribly flawed.

Second: How much more data do we need to be persuaded that Virginia is losing its economic mojo? Yes, I’m delighted that Richmond’s Hamilton Beach Brands will be shipping small appliances to China, that WhiteWave Foods Company is investing $70 million to expand operations in Rockingham County, and that Orbital Sciences Corporation has successfully launched its new Antares rocket from Wallop’s Island, to mention three bits of good news from the past week. But that’s anecdotal froth upon the economic wave. The underlying numbers are grim.

Virginia is pursuing economic development pretty much the same way it did in 1986 when I first started covering the subject for Virginia Business magazine. Our economic development professionals have gotten smarter, more sophisticated and more tech savvy but they’re still doing essentially the same thing they always have — recruiting corporate investment, marketing to tourists and promoting sales of agricultural products.

Every gubernatorial administration is required by law to update the state’s strategic economic development plan. Every administration consults the same “stakeholders” (vested interests), and every plan comes out looking largely the same as the one before. It’s time to wake up, people!

The Job Sprawl Stalls

The decentralization of jobs areas that characterized metropolitan growth and development in the early 2000s stalled after the Great Recession, according to a new report, “The Job Sprawl Stalls,” by the Brookings Institution. But the concentration of jobs in the urban core still declined when measured across the decade. Only the Washington region, which experienced a slight uptick in urban-core jobs, proved an exception to the national rule.

One reason for the geographic change in employment patterns is that construction and manufacturing, the most likely to be decentralized, were among the hardest hit during the recession, writes Elizabeth Kneebone.

Kneebone tracked the change in employment in the urban core (within three miles of a Central Business District), between 3 and 10 miles, and between 10 and 35 miles. Viewed over the decade, the urban core of most regions saw a decline in their percentage share of jobs. Here are the numbers for Virginia’s major metros:


Judging from these numbers, the scatteration of jobs was most pronounced in the Richmond region and least pronounced in the Washington region.

A few thoughts… The numbers are somewhat interesting but Kneebone’s decision (perhaps forced by the way the data was collected) to track the change in jobs between 2000 and 2010 may obscure more than it reveals. A little incident called the Great Recession, which brought with it the collapse of the real estate boomed fueled by Wall Street mortgage securitization, marked what some observers believe to be a major inflection point in growth and development.

The first seven years of the decade saw a dramatic shift of jobs toward the urban periphery. The Great Recession and the real estate crash halted or reversed that trend in the last three three years. How marked was that reversal? The data don’t tell us. What has happened in the three years since 2010? The data doesn’t tell us.

Another problem is Kneebone’s choice to impose a standard measure of distance on metropolitan regions of vastly different sizes. Thirty-five miles may be a reasonable radius for the Washington metro. For Richmond, the radius extends halfway to Charlottesville, encompassing a lot of very sparsely populated territory.

I report this data because it’s getting a lot of play in media reports, but I’m really not sure how useful it is.

– JAB

McAuliffe: Can a Schmoozer Transform?

By Peter Galuszka

On Easter Sunday, I was driving in a cold rain to Charlottesville for a family event. My cell phone started beeping with messages from Democratic gubernatorial hopeful Terry McAuliffe.

He said he was on his way to his own family brunch but wanted to tap me for $5. I got similar messages from two other staffers.

Why bother me at Easter? Political analyst Larry Sabato wondered the same thing. In a tweet that day he complained about finding “11 obnoxious messages for $$$. Now I know the answer to the age old Q; Is nothing sacred?”

And that may be McAuliffe’s biggest problem as he faces arch-conservative Ken Cuccinelli in the off-year governor’s race. In my profile of him in Style Weekly, I note that McAuliffe is trying to rein in an expansive personality that has made him a top political schmoozer and fundraiser for Democrats from Jimmy Carter to Bill and Hillary Clinton.

A decades’ long political operative who has never been in elected office, he can be bombastic and smooth, as his recent dealings with GreenTech Automotive shows. He flirted with Virginia for a hybrid  car plant before going to Mississippi. He has been accused of somehow using the car plant to win special visas for foreign workers and maybe misleading the Virginia Economic Development Partnership about his intentions in the Old Dominion.

Meanwhile, he must overcome some of his misunderstandings of traditional Virginia thinking. However, it’s probably a good thing that he’s going to skip the Shad Planking in Wakefield tonight with its Confederate flags where Cuccinelli will be keynote speaker.

While polls are about 50-50 in the race, McAuliffe’s fundraising prowess has shown brightly. In the first quarter, he raised more than $5 million — more than double the take of Cuccinelli, who has hamstrung by not being allowed raise money during the General Assembly session because of his position as Attorney General. Read on…

(Also, here as a Q&A with McAuliffe)