Category Archives: Demographics

Virginia Bleeds Red, White and Blue

Source: WalletHub

You’ve got to take these WalletHub listicles with a grain of salt, but the recent ranking of 2015’s most and least patriotic states was just too good to pass up for the 4th of July. Yes, friends, if WalletHub is to be believed, Virginia is the most patriotic of the 50 states!

WalletHub bases its ranking not on what people say they feel but on what they do. Half the patriotism rating consists of “military engagement”: what percentage of residents enlist in the military, consists of veterans and is comprised of active-duty personnel?

The other half consists of “civic engagement”: What percentage votes, volunteers, joins the Peace Corps? And what is the frequency of Google searches for American flags?

fireworksRed states are somewhat more patriotic than the blue states, according to WalletHub. That’s no surprise considering that progressives and liberals are more likely to pride themselves as being cosmopolitan citizens of the world and are less likely to believe “my country, right or wrong.”

The methodology is pretty arbitrary. There are many ways for people to demonstrate their patriotism not included in this methodology. Regardless, as one who holds patriotism to be a great virtue, I’m pleased to see that Virginia tops the list.

— JAB

 

Why There’s No Swimming Pool at Gilpin Court

gilpin courtBy Peter Galuszka

Heat and humidity seem to have been especially intense this summer. But it can be much worse at an inner city public housing project where there are few trees and other vegetation and lots of bricks and concrete that and retain heat.

So, wouldn’t a swimming pool seem nice, especially when your housing project already has one?

That’s what I thought when I visited Gilpin Court, one of Richmond’s 11 public housing projects. Housing 2,200 residents, many of them children, Gilpin is one of the worst ones run by the Richmond Redevelopment and Housing Authority. It was built in the 1940s. Here’s my story in Style Weekly.

There is a swimming pool. But, the indoor basin has been shut down for three years and the RRHA says it can’t be fixed. “The pool is closed for maintenance and repairs and diminishing funds we have available,” a spokeswoman says.

In the meantime, the RRHA has been spending money on other things, according to the Senate Judiciary Committee.

A list:

  • The RRHA spent $1,515 in 2012 to take 55 residents of Creighton Court, another project, for a bus charter to a West Virginia gambling casino.
  • The former RRHA police chief spent $900 on a television and more for cable services for an emergency operations center” that didn’t exist.He and his wife also got to go to a conference in San Diego with a side trip to Las Vegas.
  • Former authority chief executive Adrienne Goolsby, who resigned under a cloud in January, was being paid $183, 800 a year plus a $10,000 bonus. This is well above U.S. Department and Urban Development guidelines of $155,500 a year. The state governor makes less: $175,000.

U.S. Sen. Charles Grassley (R-Iowa) wrote to Goolsby last year asking for answers for these matters. His staff says he never got an answer.

Meanwhile, RRHA is being run by a temporary chief. No one seems to know when a permanent one will be appointed.

Gilpin children say they can swim at other city-owned pools or at Pocahontas State Park, which is 27 miles away.

One other takeaway: one hears a lot on this blog from writers about how the problems of poverty are a lack of personal responsibility. I guess if you grow up in a furnace like Gilpin, you just have to work harder.

Personally, I’d Like to See More Zulu Taught in Virginia Schools

LEP2The United States draws immigrants from all around the world, and Virginia is no exception. That creates a challenge for public schools, which are obligated to provide an education to all comers, even if they have limited proficiency in English. It’s one thing to find teachers to teach English as a Second Language to Spanish-speaking students, of whom there are more than 66,000 in Virginia, according to Virginia Department of Education data. Spanish-fluent teachers are not difficult to find. It’s quite another to track down someone to teach a native speaker in Eskimo, Middle High German, Efik, Kpelle, Gaelic, Northern Tiwa or Sanskrit, each of which has only one student speaking the language.

For your viewing pleasure, I have extracted the Top 10 foreign languages spoken by limited-English-proficiency students. Click on the link to view all the others.

(Hat tip: James Weigand, who notes: “Taxpayers spend around $110 million annually for LEP children in Virginia.  Who ever knew there were this many languages?  Or this many LEP students?”

(P.S. There are four Zulu speakers in Virginia schools. I have been a huge fan of Zulu history and culture since my short-lived study of African history at Johns Hopkins forty years ago. I, for one, would welcome more Zulus in Virginia.)

— JAB

Tobacco Commission: Six of Eight Projects Fail

The old logo

The old logo

 By Peter Galuszka

Down Danville way, of eight companies that have received money from the Tobacco Region Opportunity Fund (the old, embattled tobacco commission) only two have managed to fulfill contractual obligations to create jobs and help the local economy.

According to a report by Vicky M. Cruz in the Danville Register & Bee, the six firms that have failed to meet their obligations mean a loss of 1,340 potential jobs and $63 million in local investment. It also means that Danville owes the tobacco commission $5.47 million.

Here’s a list of the companies.

The tobacco commission has been around since 1999 to supposedly help residents in the tobacco growing areas of the state move into non-leaf related jobs. The money came from the huge multi-billion dollar Master Settlement Agreement between four cigarette companies and 46 states that had sued them over health concerns.

The tobacco commission has been a bit of a sham. Money has been doled out without checks on how it was spent or how successful projects have been. A former director ended up in prison for siphoning off funds. A state audit has been ultra-critical of the fund, which figured in the political corruption conviction of former Gov. Robert F. McDonnell and his wife.

Last month, Gov. Terry McAuliffe renamed the fund, appointed a new director and changed its board. The cases reported by the Register & Bee obviously date before the reforms. Let’s hope they work.

(Hat tip to Larry Gross).

Richmond’s Pathetic Leadership

At the Diamond

At the Diamond

By Peter Galuszka

Richmond is going through an existential crisis. Its “leadership” can’t get anything done after wasting the public’s time and attention on the supposed possibilities of this so-called “Capital of Creativity.”

Two examples come to mind. One is the city’s and region’s utter failure to do anything about its crumbling ballpark. The other is wasting everyone’s time on pushing an independent children’s hospital and then having VCU Health and Bon Secours pull the rug out from everyone.

Mind you, you hear ramblings out the wazoo about how Richmond is all about “regionalism” and how the “River City” is just a dandy place to live. One of the worst offenders is Bacon’s Rebellion, which shamelessly crams Richmond boosterism down readers’ throats.

But what really sets me off is a full page and unabashedly revisionist editorial in this morning’s Richmond Times-Dispatch titled “Ballpark in the Bottom? Definitely not.” The writers claim they “having listened carefully, and at great length, to all sides, we have become convinced a proposal that seemed promising at first is fatally flawed.”

Yipes! This comes after a couple years of the newspaper’s flacking Mayor Dwight C. Jones’ dubious plan to put a new $67 million stadium in historic Shockoe Bottom for the city’s Minor League AA team, the Flying Squirrels, rather than refurbishing or replacing the crumbling Diamond on the Boulevard near the strategic intersections of Interstates 64 and 95.

TD Publisher Thomas A. (TAS) Silvestri, the one-time and obviously conflicted chair of the local chamber of commerce, pushed the Shockoe idea because that was the flavor of the month with parts of the Richmond elite, including some developers, the Timmons engineering group, the Jones regime and others.

It was a bad idea from the start and had been shot down before. The Bottom has no parking and is too cramped. Even worse, it would disturb graves of slaves and other reminders of the city’s darker past such as being the nation’s No. 2 slave trading capital (this is before the “creativity” part).

The AAA Richmond Braves hated the Diamond so much that they bolted to a new stadium in Gwinnett County outside of Atlanta in 2009. A new team associated with the San Francisco Giants decided to move in. The Flying Squirrels have been an outstanding success and in the five years they have been here, their team has drawn more fans than any other in the Eastern League. In fact, their stats place them among the best draws in all of minor league baseball.

But the Squirrels had been led to believe they would get new or greatly improved digs. Instead of focusing on the Diamond (which has ONE elevator for the sick and elderly and it often doesn’t work). A couple of weeks ago, Lou DiBella wrote an open letter to the community noting that nothing has happened. Their deal with the city end next year, raising the issue of whether they will bolt as the Braves did.

Squirrels owner DiBella

Squirrels owner DiBella

I did a Q&A with DiBella for Style. Here’s how he put it:

“We have been a great asset for the whole Richmond region. Where am I looking? I’m not trying to look. You want me to look, tell me. I want to create a dialogue. I want people to be honest and open and candid right now. If you’re going to screw around with us the same way you did with the Braves, the way Richmond did under false pretenses, and there’s no chance of any regional participation or the city being creative in building a stadium — let me know now because I do have to start thinking about the future.”

He has a point. Richmond did screw around with him. Chesterfield and Henrico Counties did, too. The Squirrels get most of their spectators from the suburbs but their political leaders don’t want to spend anything to help. They neatly got off the hook when they conveyed the Diamond from the Richmond Metropolitan Authority, of which they are members, to the city exclusively.

The Jones administration, meanwhile, wasted everyone’s time (except that of the Richmond Times-Dispatch) by pushing the Bottom idea. The business elite sponsored trips for so-called local leaders to fly around the country and look at other stadiums.

Then, nothing. A development firm called the Rebkee Co. came up with a plan to build a new stadium near the Diamond with private funds. But the city refused to even review the plan. They did not accept formal written copies of the idea.

The Jones team did manage to come up with a summer practice area for the Washington Redskins that is used about two or three weeks a year. It hardly draws anything close to what the Squirrels do, but they had little problem pushing with their idea.

Bill Goodwin

Bill Goodwin

Next up is a stand-alone children’s hospital, an idea backed by a group of pediatricians and Bill Goodwin, a wealthy philanthropist and one of the most powerful men in Richmond. He and his wife pledged $150 million for the project and many, including the RTD, talked about it to death. Goodwin’s idea would be to create a world class hospital on the level of the famous Childrens Hospital of Philadelphia.

Then, without warning, non-profits VCU and Bon Secours health system pulled the rug out from under Goodwin and everyone else. They said an independent children’s hospital wasn’t needed, there was no market for it and pediatric care is moving more towards out-patient service, anyway.

The real reason, says Goodwin, is that a stand-alone children’s hospital would mean that other local hospitals would have to scale back their money-making pediatric units.

Also for Style, I asked Goodwin for his thoughts. He was flabbergasted at shutting down the idea without warning. He said:

“We were planning for an independent children’s hospital that was regional and would provide more comprehensive coverage than what VCU and Bon Secours are currently providing. This effort would have been a heck of an economic driver for our community and would provide significantly better medical care for children. Better medical education and research were also planned. We would be creating something that was creating good jobs, and it would be something that the community would be proud of, which we haven’t had recently.”

So there you have it, sports fans – a moment of truth. With its current leadership, Richmond couldn’t strike water if it fell out of a boat. You know it when the editorial writers on Franklin Street start revising history.

Map of the Day: Disconnected Youth

youth_disconnection

Source: Social Science Research Council

A new report by the Social Science Research Council, “Zeroing in on Place and Race,” defines “disconnected youth” as Americans between the ages of 16 and 24 who are neither working nor in school. Disconnected youth, who consist disproportionately of minorities and the poor, are at higher risk for a variety of social pathologies such as criminal activity and teenage pregnancy. Their delay in acquiring workforce skills and experience portends ill for their longer-term earning prospects. Here are the numbers for Virginia’s largest metros (listed by their ranking among the nation’s 98 largest metros):

disconnected_youth

— JAB

Dubious Oil Lobby Bankrolls Dubious Poll

CEABy Peter Galuszka

In a recent post, Bacons Rebellion extolled the findings of Hickman Analytics Inc., a suburban Washington consulting firm hired by the Consumer Energy Alliance, which found that according to a survey of 500 registered voters, the vast majority of Virginians support Dominion’s Atlantic Coast Pipeline.

The $5 billion project would take natural gas released by hydraulic fracturing from West Virginia southeastward through Virginia into North Carolina. Dominion has taken some strong-arm tactics to force the project through, such as suing property owners who declined to let surveyors onto their property.

Having reported on the controversy in such places as Nelson County, I was surprised to note the Hickman results showing such a strong support for the pipeline.

Maybe, I shouldn’t have been so surprised.

Let’s start with the so-called “Consumer Energy Alliance.” For starters, it is a Texas based lobbying group funded by such fossil fuel giants as ExxonMobil and Devon Energy, perhaps the largest independent oil rim in the country plus as host of utilities.

It has been traversing the United States drumming up support, often through dubious polls, against initiatives to cut back on carbon emissions. It supports the Keystone XL and other petroleum pipelines.

Says SourceWatch, quoting Salon.com, “The CEA is part of a sophisticated public affairs strategy designed to manipulate the U.S. political system by deluging the media with messaging favorable to the tar-sands industry; to persuade key state and federal legislators to act in the extractive industries’ favor; and to defeat any attempt to regulate the carbon emissions emanating from gasoline and diesel used by U.S. vehicles.”

The group was created in the late 2000s by Michael Whatley a Republican energy lobbyist with links to the Canadian and American oil sector.

The alliance’s modus operandi is to use “polls” presumably of average voters on key energy issues.

In Wisconsin, the CEA got involved in a battle over an attempt by electric utilities to hike rates if individual homeowners used solar panels to generate power. The state is dominated by coal-fired power and hasn’t done much with renewables. The utilities claim that they paid for the electricity grid and therefore home-power generators must pay extra for its use and the cost should be shared by all through rate hikes.

Many ratepayers opposed this blatant attempt to push back at solar power. Then, all the way from Texas and Washington, the Consumer Energy Alliance jumped in with the names of 2,500 local ratepayers who backed the rate hikes. It wanted to give their names to Wisconsin regulators.

The Grist asked: “What dog does CEA, a trade group from Texas, have in Wisconsin’s fight, anyway? Well, CEA represents the interests of mostly fossil fuel companies, so it is engaged in a nationwide campaign to slow the spread of home-produced renewable energy. It has a regional Midwest chapter, which pushes for fracking and for President Obama to approve the Keystone XL tar-sands pipeline.”

I was likewise puzzled by the Virginia pipeline survey that CEA paid for by Hickman Analytics, a Chevy Chase, Md. firm that does a lot of political polling. The firm is powerful and its principals were heavily involved with disgraced Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards.

There was a poll by Hickman for CEA showing that New Hampshire vote just love Arctic offshore drilling. That’s off because the Granite State isn’t anywhere close to the Arctic despite its cold winters.

There was another Hickman/CEA poll showing how much Coloradans love the Keystone XL pipeline – another curiosity because the last time I checked that pipeline doesn’t run through Colorado.

And, fresh with a “five figure” sponsorship from Dominion, Bacon’s Rebellion publisher James A. Bacon Jr. starts writing about this dubious poll from a dubious source showing that Virginians are tickled pink with the ACL pipeline. When questioned, he says it’s nothing different from a poll funded by the Sierra Club.

Maybe, on another matter, it is curious that Bacon’s Rebellion’s sponsorship deal with Dominion which Jim posted online is signed by Daniel A. Weekley, vice president for Dominion corporate affairs.

The very same Mr. Weekley signed an informational packet sent out to Virginia homeowners impacted by the proposed pipeline route telling them what a great thing the pipeline is.

Am I connecting the dots correctly?
 

Does the Gig Economy Need Fixing?

warnerby James A. Bacon

Senator Mark Warner, D-Virginia, has latched onto a fascinating issue: the “disaggregation of the workplace.” That’s wonk talk for the Uber-ization of the United States economy, in which an increasing percentage of the population engages in contingency work outside the highly regulated setting of full-time employment. Warner rightly calls this trend “the most radical transformation of the American workplace in the past 30 years,” and he thinks that people in Washington need to start talking about it.

Warner’s right about one thing: The rise of the contingency workforce is indeed rewriting the social contract between employer and employee. But I’m not so sure it’s a good idea for the politicians to get involved. I’d like to see evidence that contingency employment is broken before Congress tries to fix it.

In the gig economy, also called the sharing economy, workers engage in a contractual relationship with customers to provide services — the conveyance of passengers in Uber cars, or completion of a writing contract, or fulfillment of an IT task. The advantage is an unprecedented degree of flexibility. Workers are free to take on as much work as they can find, or as little as they want. They are more geographically mobile, not tied to one particular location. They can set their own hours. They can pick and choose whom they want to work with, and if they don’t like a relationship, they are free to leave it.

The downside is that there are no government-mandated employment benefits or protections. Free-lancers don’t get company-provided pensions or health-care benefits. They don’t get unemployment benefits, worker’s compensation or disability. “If there is no safety net,” says Warner in the USA Today interview seen here, “someone can hit a rough patch and have no alternative but to fall back on government assistance programs.”

Warner does not necessarily advocate extending the old workforce model to the contingency workforce. He wants to start thinking about how to improve the new model. Washington, he says, needs to look at things like hour banks (a currency exchange in which the unit of exchange is a person-hour of time) or opt-ins (I’m not sure what he’s referring to) or models emerging in Europe.

Contigency workers already have the option to purchase health and disability insurance on the open market, and they have the option to put money into IRAs. It’s not always easy finding the money to divert to those self-insurance programs, however, so not everyone chooses to take advantage of them. Paternalists no doubt fret that current arrangements that leave “too much” discretion to workers and that bad decisions might result in people relying upon the federal safety net.

As a contingency worker myself, living off Bacon’s Rebellion sponsorships and free-lance work, I value the freedom I have to work at home, meet with a driveway paving contractor (as I did today), pick up my kid from school (as I will do later), zip over to the neighborhood pool to swim a few laps (which I’ll do if I have enough time), and prepare dinner for when my wife gets home from her 8-to-7 job. If that freedom means working nights and weekends to get the job done, that’s my decision. I like this way of life.

I’m all in favor of expanding peoples’ choices, something that the private sector is particularly adept at doing. I would bitterly oppose legislation in which Congressmen or bureaucrats decide that they know what’s best for me and tell me how I need to allocate my income. Unfortunately, I’ve never known Congress to look at a “problem” and fail to find a “solution.” Right now, I’m not convinced there’s a problem that needs fixing, and, despite Warner’s perspicacity in spotting a new trend, I’m not sure I want Congress monkeying around with it.

Housing Affordability for Millennials

millennial_affordability

by James A. Bacon

As the global epicenter of technology innovation, Silicon Valley creates a massive amount of wealth — but the housing supply, hemmed in by geography and zoning regulations, is incredibly restricted. The resulting housing crunch is so severe that Millennials are hard pressed to live there. The median income for Millennials in the San Jose metropolitan area is the highest of any of the 50 largest metropolitan regions in the country — $53,000. But the median home value of $925,000 requires an income of $133,000 to pay a mortgage (not to mention a 20% down payment). The earnings gap, according to a new housing index published by Bloomberg, is $80,000!

If Millennials are the life-blood of creativity and innovation for metropolitan economies, the cost of housing could be Silicon Valley’s Achilles heel. The housing supply is so out of whack, as it is in neighboring San Francisco, that, as much as Millennials are drawn to the excitement and glamour of working at companies like Apple and Google, they simply can’t afford it unless they’re willing to live five or six to an apartment.

According to Bloomberg, housing is unaffordable for thirteen of the 50 largest U.S. metros. The biggest affordability gaps are on the West Coast, but Boston, Washington and New York are on the list as well. Young people are willing to tolerate sub-par living conditions for a while, especially while they are single. One of my daughters shared a tiny rental apartment with four roommates while living in Jackson,Wyoming, which, due to its awesomeness, has similar affordability issues. But she rented her own place when she moved back to Richmond. And now that she is getting married, she and her fiance have no trouble affording a comfortable starter home in a nice neighborhood near the University of Richmond. When educated Millennials are ready to get married and start families, the idea of sharing a house with four or five roommates is not a serious option.

At the opposite end of the spectrum are metros like Detroit, Buffalo and Cleveland where housing is easily affordable — but job opportunities for Millennials are scarce. If your goal is to recruit and retain educated Millennials with the hope of stimulating the creative economy, it appears that the sweet spot is the middle of the affordability range in which jobs are available and housing is affordable.

Millennials consider many other factors when choosing where to live, to be sure. Larger metros have appeal because the supply of potential mates is larger. They also look for coolness, hipness and authenticity, indefinable characteristics that are difficult to measure but definitely apply to places like San Francisco, New York, Austin and Portland. But once young people have found their mates, the size of the mating pool is no longer a consideration. And once they have children, hipness no longer looms as large.

Metros like Richmond and Virginia Beach will have difficulty competing with San Francisco and New York in luring single Millennials right out of college. But the comparative advantage shifts dramatically in their favor when Millennials are ready to settle down. In the competition for talent, the best bet for downstate Virginia communities is to target educated Millennials at that life-stage. How to target them is quite another question. It’s a question that Virginians need to give more thought to.

A Close Look at Virginia’s Gender Wage Gap

by James A. Bacon

We repeatedly hear the claim that women earn only 77% as men, as if the difference were attributable entirely to workforce discrimination.  Annie Rorem at the Demographics Research Group at the University of Virginia believes that “there is reason to believe” that women earn less than men in the United States, but concedes “it takes a lot of careful work to meaningfully demonstrate it.”

Writing in the StatChat blog, Rorem walks readers through the perils of drawing superficial conclusions. One source of wage data by sex, the Quarterly Workforce Indicator Explorer, comes from the Census Bureau. Here’s what it shows for selected Virginia localities:

average_wages

Wow, it looks like a massive wage disparity! But beware. These numbers do not distinguish between full-time jobs or part-time jobs, says Rorem, and women are more likely than men to work part-time. Fewer hours worked undoubtedly accounts for some of the earnings discrepancy. To distinguish between full-time and part-time work, one must resort to the American Community Survey, which compares full-time earnings.

full-time

Hmmm…. the wage gap narrows considerably, except in Fairfax and Arlington counties. But there’s another problem, says Rorem. These wages are self-reported, which means they are not as reliable and precise as the first set of numbers. They come with a margin of error. So, she adjusts for the margin of error.

margin_of_error

That closes the gap even more. Indeed, in several localities, there is not enough data to state unequivocally that men out-earn women at all.

Perhaps more importantly, this analysis leaves out other critical variables: education, experience, age and industry. Rorem will delve into those factors in a future blog post.

A snide aside: I find it interesting that the wage gap, by this reckoning, is widest in the two localities — Fairfax County and Arlington County — that have the “bluest” electorates. Could it be that liberals, progressives and Democrats are closet misogynists who discriminate even more blatantly against women than conservatives do? Certainly that’s the conclusion we would draw if we parroted the simplistic-to-the-point-of-being-brain-dead factoid that women earn only 77% as much as men. Of course, no honest person would never make such a flawed comparison.

There may be workforce discrimination against women, I don’t know. From what I’ve seen of her analysis so far, I have far more faith in what Rorem has to say on the subject than anything coming out of the White House. I look forward to Part II of her analysis.