Author Archives: Groveton

Automation and Economic Upheaval

Posted on May 16, 2012 by Groveton| 32 Comments

by D.J. Rippert

Author’s Note:  This is the second installment of Understanding America’s Broken Economy.  The first installment can be found here.

The Anti-Luddite Pledge.  I have worked in technology for the past 31 years.  In that time I have met tens of thousands of “technology people”.  They are generally very mathematical, precise and quantitative in their approach to problem solving – with one huge exception – The Anti-Luddite Pledge.  The Anti-Luddite Pledge holds that technology will always create more new opportunities for employment than it erases old opportunities for employment.  I see no reason whatsoever to believe this to be true.  In fact, I see several reasons to believe that idea is fundamentally wrong.

Obama’s pseudo-gaffe.  On June 15, 2011 President Obama stated in an interview that ATM machines and airport kiosks were examples of technologies that took jobs away from people.  You can view the video of his remarks here.  Needless to say, the Anti-Luddite Pledge crowd came out in force to pillory the president for his remarks.  The vast majority of the comments in the blogosphere were ODS (Obama Derangement Syndrome) chattering.  However, there were some reasoned responses, such as the Economist’s take.  But even the best retorts missed some key points.  First, nobody seems to debate that airline kiosk technology replaces people.  All the debate was about ATMs.  Second, the Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows that the number of bank tellers in the United States is rising.  So, Obama must be wrong.  Not so quick.  According to the BLS, in 1985 there were 485,000 bank tellers in the United States, in 2008 there were 600,500.  In 23 years the number of bank tellers grew by 24%.  Unfortunately for the Anti-Obama crowd, the US population grew by 27% over that same period.  Moreover, the BLS predicts that the number of bank tellers will grow by a total of only 6.2% over the 10 years from 2008 to 2018.  The US population is expected to increase by 10% over that same period.  Even the jobs created in making and repairing ATMs can’t make up the difference – especially if the manufacture of ATMs is done in China.

Stabbed by the sharp end of an exponential curve.  Please take a close look at the graphic I have embedded with this blog post.  I intentionally used a “vanilla” curve without any labels on the axes.  We can debate the shape of the curve that represents technology change.  We can debate the shape of the curve that represents societal change.  Can we really debate whether the curve of technology change will eventually “break through” the curve of society’s ability to absorb change?  I don’t think so.  In fact, I suspect that the two curves have already crossed and are diverging from one another at a growing rate.

Out of the mouths of fiends oft-times come gems.

“On the other hand it is possible that human control over the machines may be retained. In that case the average man may have control over certain private machines of his own, such as his car or his personal computer, but control over large systems of machines will be in the hands of a tiny elite – just as it is today, but with two differences. Due to improved techniques the elite will have greater control over the masses; and because human work will no longer be necessary the masses will be superfluous, a useless burden on the system. If the elite is ruthless they may simply decide to exterminate the mass of humanity. If they are humane they may use propaganda or other psychological or biological techniques to reduce the birth rate until the mass of humanity becomes extinct, leaving the world to the elite. Or, if the elite consists of soft-hearted liberals, they may decide to play the role of good shepherds to the rest of the human race. They will see to it that everyone’s physical needs are satisfied, that all children are raised under psychologically hygienic conditions, that everyone has a wholesome hobby to keep him busy, and that anyone who may become dissatisfied undergoes “treatment” to cure his “problem.” Of course, life will be so purposeless that people will have to be biologically or psychologically engineered either to remove their need for the power process or make them “sublimate” their drive for power into some harmless hobby. These engineered human beings may be happy in such a society, but they will most certainly not be free. They will have been reduced to the status of domestic animals.”

– Theodore Kaczynski (aka “The Unabomber”)

In summary: The problem is not technology.  The problem is society’s ability to absorb the economic impact of technological change.  There are two curves – technological change and the ability of society to absorb the impact of that change.  I believe that the two curves are destined to cross.  In fact, I theorize that they already have crossed.

Next up, globalization and economic upheaval.

→ 32 Comments

Posted in 2012, Economy, Labor & workforce, Politics, Science & Technology, Uncategorized

Tagged

Understanding America’s Broken Economy

Posted on May 15, 2012 by Groveton| 7 Comments

by D.J.Rippert

American Airlines Flight 191 – As a frequent flier with over 3 million air miles I pay close attention to airline safety and have a somewhat morbid curiosity about airplane crashes.  One thing always stands out for me – airplane crashes rarely result from one big problem.  Instead, they are caused by multiple problems occurring at the same time.  American Airlines Flight 191 was just such a tragedy that resulted in the worst U.S. air disaster until the Sept 11 attacks.

On May 25, 1979 American Airlines Flight 191 took off from O’Hare field and quickly crashed into Des Plaines, lll.  All aboard and two people on the ground were killed.  The reason for the crash seemed apparent – one of the airplane’s engines fell off the wing during takeoff.  However, even this seemingly straightforward explanation was wrong.  The tragedy was actually a horrible play in five acts.  The engine placement was poorly designed and maintenance crews often damaged the engines during servicing.  The plane would have flown without the engine but the falling engine severed the hydraulics, which are required to control the plane.  Most planes had designs that kept the slats retracted in case of hydraulic failure but the DC-10 did not.  Finally, there were two warning systems that should have sounded but the engine that had fallen off powered them both.

In the end, these multiple problems caused the deaths of 273 people.

Today’s American economy is like an airplane crash – what appears, at first, to be one or two big problems is actually the interplay of many big problems. However, airplane crashes are carefully and dispassionately studied to improve safety while our economy is mere election year fodder for our corrupt political class.

The Dirty Half Dozen.  Six powerful and deeply ingrained trends have conspired to put America in its present economic condition.  The trends themselves must be studied.  Perhaps more importantly, the relationships among these trends must be understood.

Automation – Jobless recoveries occur when the underlying economy improves but that improvement does not serve to sufficiently spike the demand for labor.  Jobless recoveries were an oxymoron until the early 1990s.  Today, they are a fact of life.  One reason is the relentless automation of everyday tasks.  Anybody who understands exponential growth knows that the curve of that growth starts out pretty flat but ends up very vertical.  It’s easy to get lulled to sleep in the early stages of exponential change and equally easy to get gored by the curve once it hits “the elbow”.  We are currently experiencing “the elbow” of technology change.  Today, robots dispense cash, web sites book travel, chemistry controls cholesterol and the world champion chess and Jeopardy players are both software programs written by IBM.  More detail on this trend can be found here.

Globalization – What automation isn’t stealing from an American recovery globalization is taking instead.  The 1970s and 1980s proved that the American economy was strong enough to “pull up” millions of Mexicans from poverty as manufacturing jobs were moved offshore.  The last 15 years have proven that the American economy is not strong enough to pull up billons of Indians and Chinese from poverty by off-shoring everything else.

Illegal immigration – Supply and demand determine price.  The American labor market is but one of a billion commodities subject to the law of supply and demand.  Allowing tens of millions of illegal immigrants into the US raises the supply of largely under-educated labor and that, unsurprisingly, lowers the price of that labor.  This keeps America’s poor impoverished and widens the wealth gap.

Deficits – I’ve always suspected that Lyndon Johnson was a closet magician.  During his relatively brief tenure as President he tried to make the Vietnam War disappear in the smoky haze of The Great Society.  The war remained in plain sight and the smoke of the Great Society congealed into the stifling smog of today’s entitlement society.  Unfortunately, like most Presidential inventions – this Frankenstein of demographic illiteracy has not just endured but grown.  Nixon, Ford, Reagan, Bush and Bush all kept the printing presses rolling one way or another.

Easy credit – Bill Clinton wasn’t known as Slick Willy for nothing.  Clinton unseated an incumbent president with the classic campaign cry, “It’s the economy, stupid.”  Unfortunately for President Clinton, no magic bullet appeared on the day of his inauguration to change that economy.  So, he invented a magic bullet – easy credit for everybody.  He pushed the banks to make loans to anybody who could afford a ball point pen to sign the paperwork.  Bush, Jr. kept the party alive by convincing the Fed to keep interest rates at artificially low levels.  The early results proved the palliative was working.  Consumption inequality rose much more slowly than income inequality in the years before the current crisis.  But America was living on borrowed money and borrowed time.

Moral decay – The consumerist society has reached new heights in the U.S.  Advertising hits us from every direction while Mom, Dad and the local reverend are either too busy shopping for themselves or drowned out by the cacophony of our over-consumptive country.  Corporate CEOs, sports stars, rap artists and the current First Lady all seem to define themselves through the extravagance of their lifestyles.  Image over substance replaces the church and nuclear family as Americans vainly strive to “keep up with the Joneses”.   Savings rates plummet and our children learn to define themselves by what they have versus who they are.  Neuro-plasticity is real.  Prolonged exposure to repetitive messages can change the way our brains work.  The relentless advertising whispering, “buy, buy, buy” in every facet of our lives is creating a society that can’t afford to be what it wants to become.

United Flight 232.  Not every set of mid-air catastrophic failures result in the death of all aboard.  In 1989, United Airlines Flight 232 left Denver for Chicago.  Somewhere over Iowa its rear engine disintegrated and sent shrapnel through all three independent hydraulic control systems shutting them down.  The fact that there were three independent control systems mattered little when one exogenous failure destroyed them all.  The air crew somehow improvised and used the thrust from the two engines to control the plane.  The plane was crash landed and broke in two.  The brilliance of the aircrew and the creativity of the pilot could not stop the horrible tragedy of 111 deaths.  However, the stunning result was less the tragedy of the 111 people who died but rather the amazing fact that 185 people lived.

America’s economy is currently experiencing multiple catastrophic failures. However, some courageous improvisation, a willingness to take risks and the steel will of those piloting the economy may be sufficient to avoid complete disaster.  The real trick will be the hard work of dropping the class warfare, partisan politics and simpl -minded sound bite logic of our our current political class.  This November might be a good time to start.

Next up … a detailed look at how the pace of automation is exceeding our economy’s ability to adapt.

By … DJ Rippert

→ 7 Comments

Posted in 2012, Budget, Children and families, Demographics, Economic development, Economy, Entitlements, Federal, Immigration, The Economy, Uncategorized

Tagged

Obama’s Propaganda Machine

Posted on April 13, 2012 by Groveton| 5 Comments

He’s just …. acting!  Modern presidents try to paint a picture of themselves that is larger than life and flattering.  In the old days, that meant FDR hiding his handicap and JFK hiding his harem.  Nowadays, it takes more than hiding the unsavory.  It means “Hollywood like” images of vim and vigor.

Clearing the Bush.  Who could forget the many pictures of George W. Bush clearing the brush at his Texas ranch?  It seemed that all of his vacation time as president was spent clearing the underbrush at his beloved rural ranch.  One got the impression of a selfless public servant suffering through his time in Washington while pining away for his inevitable return to the ranch.  In fact, he left Washington and moved into a suburban mansion in Dallas but you get the idea.

I’ve got a basketball, Jones.  Obama has taken the phony baloney antics of GW Bush to a new level.  As a candidate, Barack Obama tried to cultivate his young, athletic image by participating in various sports.  He went bowling with some recently acquired “blue collar buddies”.  Unfortunately for Barack, he rolled a 37.  As an occasional bowler, I can say from experience, “That’s hard to do.  Especially as an adult.” Obama also has a penchant for golf.  He seems to spend more time on oval greens than in the Oval Office.  Only one thing missing from these Sam Snead episodes – a scorecard.  The White House jealously guards the number at the end of Obama’s round.  I think I know why.  However, for all his foibles with bowling and golf Obama is best known for his prowess on the basketball court.  And why not?  Basketball is “active athletic”, it is hip, it is chic, basketball players are cool.  And, best of all, the recorded results can be staged to look much better than they were.

From stumble-bum to Shaq in five easy takes.  The following two videos illustrate the lengths that Obama’s propaganda machine will go to in order to deify the “anointed one”.  The first video, shot by an amateur camera person, shows Barack Obama missing four consecutive basketball shots before finally making his fifth attempt.  The second video, produced by the White House, shows Obama smoothly sinking the ball without the inconvenience of displaying the first four attempts (fast forward to 1:50 if you want to skip the rest of Obama’s mindless propaganda).

What really happened:

How it looked after the propagandists’ edit (which, apparently, included preventing YouTube embedding … nice!) – go to 1:50:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=0_olLOuzSNs

– DJ Rippert

→ 5 Comments

Posted in 2012, Federal, Governance reform, Politics, Uncategorized

Can Virginia’s Republicans Save Themselves?

Posted on March 26, 2012 by Groveton| 7 Comments

Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.  After the battle of Fredericksburg in 1862 Abraham Lincoln decided to remove Union General Burnside from command.  Honest Abe famously quipped that Burnside could, “snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.”  Today, Virginia’s Republicans find themselves in much the same situation as the hapless General Burnside.  They entered the 2012 legislative session holding all the cards and left the session thoroughly humiliated and defeated.  The Republicans went from heroes to goats in eleven short weeks.

Bizarre behavior is a flaw not a feature.  The Republicans wasted no time in putting forth one bizarre idea after another.  The ideas themselves were odd in their own right.  However, it was the execution of those odd ideas that vaulted the state’s Republicans from eccentric to bizarre.

I am person, hear me roar.  They opened with a Personhood bill sponsored by Del. Bob Marshall.  The GOP opined that the bill simply gave legal rights to a fetus in case the fetus is harmed or killed by the misdeeds of others.  They cited other states with similar bills and claimed that their proposed legislation had nothing to do with abortion or Roe v Wade.  Had anybody other than Bob Marshall patroned the bill they might have been able to convince somebody that the bill had nothing to do with abortion.  However, Bob Marshall has a long and very public record of opposing abortion under any circumstances.  Nobody outside of the Tea Party bought the Republican storyline on personhood.  The bill in question was HB-1.  An inauspicious start to the session for the GOP.

Deducting space ashes.  Next up was tax breaks for orbiting funeral urns.  This time, the Republicans had good intentions.  The goal was to get a spaceport on Virginia’s Eastern Shore up and running with some economic help from the Nanny State.  They could have proposed to donate state land.  They could have provided corporate tax breaks or tax credits for training the workforce at the space port.  Oh no.  None of those ideas passed the Republican Bizarre-O-Meter test.  Instead, they proposed personal tax exemptions for people who wish to send their cremated ashes into orbit from rockets launched at Virginia’s space port.  The late night comedians got their first dose of usable material from Virginia’s Republicans.  It would not be their last.

You want to put what where?  A transparent anti-abortion bill quickly degenerated into a debate over demanding an invasive procedure for women wanting an abortion.  The quackery went back and forth as a slew of Republican state legislators (mostly lawyers) decided to play “doctor for a day.”  Inaccurate medical comment followed inaccurate medical comment until Jay Leno and his ilk had enough material for a Labor Day Marathon.

Lights, camera, idiocy.  Unsatisfied by bad legislation being poorly executed, the Republicans went back to their old habit of filming their buffoonery for posterity.  The needle on the Bizarre-O-Meter pegged the red line as Dave Albo regaled the General Assembly with a videotaping of his story of a lack of bedroom interest from his wife.  One can only imagine George “Macaca” Allen smiling to himself as he thought, “Well, my videotape is no longer the stupidest thing ever caught on tape.”

Opportunity knocks but once many times.  The Democrats put forth a far-from-stellar performance in what was the most inept legislative session in memory.  Yet, the Republicans failed to take substantial advantage of even one of the Democrats’ many mis-steps.

You can take these votes and shove them.  The Democrats started the session by somehow insisting that the Republicans and the Republican Lieutenant Governor lacked the authority to vote on committee assignments. Their teary-eyed, wimpy, weeping failed to arouse even a half-assed response from the GOP.  The GOP could have cited precedent, they could have touted the total votes cast for Republicans vs Democrats in the recent Senate elections or they could have just called the Dems cry-babies or sore losers.  However, they did none of these things with any effect.  Apparently, they were too preoccupied with planning funerals in space and writing the script for Animal House II to be bothered with the Dems’ “John Boehner moment”.

Massachusetts on the James.  The Dems next faux pas was a 20 – 0 vote in the Senate supporting mandatory PLAs for Rail to Dulles, Phase II.  This was a perfect set up for the Republicans.  A right to work issue in a right to work state.  Extra costs for an already massive government project.  Big Labor’s huge campaign contributions to Democrats.  A swing and a miss.  The Republicans passed the anti-PLA vote with Bill Bolling’s tie breaker.  However, they got scant political mileage from what should have been a bonanza.  It seems the GOP was too busy debating how many pull ups a woman should be forced to do before she can have an abortion.

The lights are on but nobody’s home.  Many Virginians watched the early antics of the RPV and surmised that the party lacked leadership. They were right.  In fact, the RPV’s lack of leadership was crystallized when Ken Cuccinelli abruptly announced that he would contest the Republican nomination for governor with Bill Bolling.  One can only imagine that the Republicans’ presidential nomination battle has gone so well that it must be replicated in Virginia.

The Democrats have positioned themselves as friends of Tidewater and NoVa on transportation.  They have been the “adults in the room” during the legislative session.  Meanwhile, Bob McDonnell seems to be daydreaming about being the VP while Cuccinelli and Bolling set up for an epic nomination fate.

The Republicans in Virginia are in very, very bad shape.

– DJRippert

→ 7 Comments

Posted in 2012, Abortion, Money in politics, Politics, Uncategorized

Tagged

Update: Menhaden 1, General Assembly 0

Posted on March 13, 2012 by Groveton| 5 Comments

                                                                                                                

Little White Lies.  Politicians in Virginia support motherhood, apple pie and the Chesapeake Bay.  Just ask them.  Of course their support for motherhood comes complete with state police in riot gear when actual mothers show up in Richmond.  And the frat boys in the General Assembly like apples because they can be turned into booze with uncapped alcohol content.  This uncapped hard cider makes the tales of bedroom exploits all the more humorous when told from the floor of the General Assembly.  The Bay, however, is sacrosanct.  Unless it impinges on campaign contributions from those who would destroy it.

Of Mice and Men … haden.  Menhaden are small, oily, inedible fish that once swam in great quantity in the Bay.  Essentially useless as a food for humans, menhaden are among the greatest of delicacies for many of the Bay’s famous fish.  Striped bass, bluefish and weakfish will stand in long lines for a table at the Menhaden Cafe.  At least, they used to dine at the Menhaden Cafe.  That was before the Virginia legislature bucked pressure from the other Atlantic seaboard states and let a Texas company do its level best to wipe out the Menhaden stock in the Chesapeake Bay.  This cowardly action has led to a deplorable drop in the menhaden stock.

A silver fish with green highlights.  The only saltwater fish in Virginia regulated directly by the General Assembly is the menhaden.  This is because the menhaden is the only fish that can turn directly into campaign contributions from its greatest enemy – the Omega Protein Company.  Based in Houston, Texas, but operating out of Reedville, Virginia, the Omega Protein Company uses its ten factory ships, planes and helicopters to pillage the Chesapeake Bay of its menhaden.  Omega is such a pariah in the marine management world that every Atlantic state, except Virginia, has banned its factory ships from their coastal waters (although North Carolina allows limited access).  Virginia’s love affair with Omega Protein is buoyed by waves of cash.  $55,000 to Gov Bob McDonnell, $106,000 to state legislators, $53,000 to Virginia’s federal politicians and another cool $3M in lobbying.  All of which has given the Clown Show in Richmond sufficient “courage” to persecute the little fish to the edge of extinction.

The universal fate of bullies.  Unfortunately for Virginia’s politicians, not all states have legislatures laden with greasy fingered, greedy eco-cowards.  Last November, representatives from the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission (ASMFC) helped the little fish pivot on its left dorsal fin and throw an overhand right straight into the faces of Virginia’s political class.  Metaphorically speaking, of course.  Virginia’s political class was left with two black eyes, a broken nose and a mouth full of blood and tooth fragments.  Metaphorically speaking, of course.  The ASMFC voted 14-3 to implement a strict menhaden fishing limit across all of the Atlantic states – including Virginia.  The net effect of the cap will be a 37% reduction in the commercial landings of menhaden.  Or, put another way, the Chesapeake Bay will finally start to recover its menhaden stock.

Numbers?  We don’t need no stinkin’ numbers.  Much of the opposition to menhaden fishing limits has come from Virginia politicians concerned about the impact a limit will have on the 300 largely seasonal jobs provided by the Omega Protein Company to the people of Reedville, Va.  It is a legitimate concern.  However, math has never been our political class’ long suit.  There can be no doubt that overfishing of menhaden is hurting the sportfishing industry in the Chesapeake Bay.  Striped bass are now routinely found to be malnourished in the Chesapeake Bay.  Anecdotally, the charter fishing business seems to have fallen on hard times.  It seems that annihilating the source of food for sport fish hurts the sport-fishing industry.  Go figure.

Omega is the only large scale commercial menhaden fishing operation on the East Coast so calculating the benefits of that industry is fairly easy.  They have sales of $60M per year.  They employ 300 Virginians at peak and generate demand for another 219 affiliated jobs outside the Omega Protein Company.  Meanwhile, the recreational fishing industry in Virginia and Maryland generates $332M of economic activity and provided 3,500 jobs in 2008.  It seems to me that a 37% reduction in commercial menhaden landings is justified by the recovery of a 3,500 job industry.  Of course, the recreational fishing industry is largely composed of small businesses which cannot match a single corporation’s ability to shove wads of cash into the pockets of our political class.

The Good, the Bad and the Clown Show.  Four separate bills were introduced into the General Assembly’s 2012 session regarding menhaden management.  The bad bill was SB18 patroned by Sen. Richard Stuart, R-Westmoreland.  Stuart’s bill was a half-assed attempt to have Virginia resign from ASMFC once that organization voted to limit menhaden fishing.  The bill was reported out of committee on a 9 – 6 vote.  However, it was carried over until 2013 by the Finance Committee on a 14-0 vote.  The menhaden have a reprieve of at least another year and Sen Stuart gets to tell his constituents that he tried.  Actually, Stuart is a good enough guy.  He has pressed legislation to reduce phosphate pollution and is sensitive to conservation efforts.  The good bill was SB466 patroned by Sen Ralph Northam, D-Norfolk.  Sen Northam’s bill was the mirror opposite of Sen. Stuart’s bill.  It specifically authorized Virginia’s regulator to adopt the ASMFC’s fisheries plan for menhaden.  It was also continued to 2013 with a 15 – 0 vote in committee.  The General Assembly’s inability to get much of anything done was a blessing.  They’ll get to solicit more money from Omega to join battle next year and I’ll get to put more delicious striped bass, bluefish and weakfish on my table.

– DJ Rippert (friend of the Bay menhaden)

→ 5 Comments

Posted in 2012, Economic development, Economy, Environment, Governance reform, Money in politics, Politics, Regulation

Tagged

Virginia is for Sheeple

Posted on March 7, 2012 by Groveton| 13 Comments

Where does virgin wool come from?  Ugly sheep.  And where does the least competitive state legislature in the United States come from?  Virginia.  That’s the simple conclusion of Ballotpedia’s somewhat complex Competitiveness Index.  The index compares the relative competitiveness of state elections using a three factor analysis.  The details of the calculation can be found here.

Nothing’s ever easy in Virginia. Ballotpedia tracks election competitiveness by year.  But Virginia is only one of four states to hold odd year legislative elections so there are only three other states in the sample.  Of course, that’s one of the tricks of the Clown Show – odd year elections.  In non-typical election years, voter turnout is lower than the usual presidential or mid-term elections. Virginia could move to even year elections but does not.  If there’s one thing that cockroaches and the political class in Richmond have in common it’s a love of the dark.

On the island of mis-fit toys.  Lousiana, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia.  And the loser is … Virginia.  Using an absolute index of legislative elections in 2011 yields the following results (100 would be most competitive):

  • New Jersey 45.3
  • Lousiana      40.2
  • Mississippi  26.3
  • Virginia        19.6
Yes, not just the worst but way worst.  You can see the results here (use 2011 tab).
.
The tears of our clowns.  Despite the odd-year elections, the absolute index can be used across years.  The least competitive state legislature election in 2010 was in South Carolina with an absolute score of 20.6.  Virginia would have been worst that year too.  Yet another low water mark for the Clown Show in Richmond.  You can see the results here (use 2010 tab).
.
GA uber alles, clowns for life.  Virginia’s General Assembly has passed laws neutering the executive and legislative branches of the state government.  It has adopted a strict Dillon’s Rule implementation that effectively shuts out the local governments.  Yet this is only the tip of the iceberg.  The Clown Show in Richmond assures not only its omnipotence but the permanence of its members.
.
This permanence is created through odd-year elections, unlimited campaign contributions, shameless gerrymandering and other artifices.  The end result is the state with the least competitive legislative elections in every year where the level of competitiveness has been measured.
.
Wake up, Virginia sheeple!  We are being played for fools by the Clown Show in Richmond.
.
– DJ Rippert

→ 13 Comments

Posted in 2012, Courts and law, Demographics, Electoral process, Politics, Uncategorized

Tagged

Virginia’s Numerous Governance Problems

Posted on March 6, 2012 by Groveton| 27 Comments

Absolute Power Corrupts Absolutely.  Virginia’s present system of government is inappropriate, inadequate and corrupt.  It is inappropriate given the long legacy of Virginians who risked everything for a fair government with checks and balances – Washington, Jefferson, Madison, Henry, etc.  It is inadequate since its genetic rigor mortis calcifies the old in favor of the new, and it is corrupt in the way that it allows the money of a few to serve as a yoke on the necks of many.

A series of unfortunate events.  The macabre brilliance of the corruption and fossilization of Virginia’s present system of government is that no isolated decision can be singled out as “the problem”.  Instead, the entirety is the multiplicand, rather than the sum, of the pieces.  Individually, no decision can be seen as absurd or corrosive.  Taken as a whole, the package has rendered to Virginia the worst state government in the nation.

To do list … 1. Make a list.  The list of absurdities in Virginia’s governance practices is long and varied.  Shortly, Virginians voting in the Republican primary will not be able to select Gingrich or Santorum due to one of the state’s idiocies - namely, making getting on the ballot in Virginia a herculean process far more onerous than in any other state.  However, that insult to the intelligence of the electorate is but the tip of the iceberg from the political class in Richmond.  Let’s take stock of just a few of the “biggies” from our General Assembly (GA) – otherwise known as “The Clown Show in Richmond”:

  • Only state in the nation where the governor cannot serve two consecutive terms.
  • Only four states place no limits on campaign contributions.  Virginia is one of the four.
  • Only four states let their state legislature elect high court judges.  Virginia is one of those four states.
  • Only four states hold state elections on “off years” (i.e. odd numbered years).  Virginia is one of those states.
  • In 27 states, citizens can place matters on the ballot through some form of initiative or referendum process.  Virginia is not among them.
  • Four states have independent cities.  Missouri, Maryland and Nevada each have one.  Virginia has 39.
  • Virginia has many counties (and equivalents) relative to its total size.  Virginia ranks #49 in average county (and equivalent) size, by sq mi.  Only Rhode Island has a lower average size.
  • 19 states allow some form of recall election for state politicians.  Virginia is not one of them.
  • 17 states have term limits for their state legislature.  Virginia is not one of those states.
  • 13 states have some form of non-partisan redistricting commission.  Virginia allows the state legislature to draw the district maps.

Let’s Summarize: Virginia’s governance system has an all-powerful General Assembly.  The governor is a short timer from the day he or she is elected.  The localities are too small and underpowered to challenge the Clown Show.  The judiciary exists at the behest of the Clown Show.  And the citizens have no recall, initiative or referendum rights.  Meanwhile, anybody with money can buy an unlimited level of influence from our General Assembly.

Clown Show Uber Alles.  My next post will be a summary of the relative competitiveness of state legislature elections.  Here’s a shocker – Virginia rates DFL (Dead Freaking Last) - #50 of 50.

– DJ Rippert

→ 27 Comments

Posted in 2012, Courts and law, Money in politics, Politics, Uncategorized

Tagged

Gingrich Loses It

Posted on January 12, 2012 by Groveton| 19 Comments

If you can’t say something nice …  I just finished watching Newt Gingrich’s attempted character assassination of Mitt Romney.  This particular hit piece comes in the form of a 30 minute video chronicling the problems which attended four corporate takeovers conducted by Bain Capital.  Mr. Romney was the CEO of Bain Capital so, apparently, these four failed leveraged buy-outs are Mr. Romney’s fault.  The Gingrich propaganda film can be seen here.

HBO, CBO, LBO, Who Knows?  Bain Capital is essentially a leveraged buyout (LBO) company.  No doubt those at Bain would quibble with that designation since LBO companies have predatory reputations.  However, if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and … well, you know the rest.  LBO concerns buy underperforming companies using a small amount of the LBO company’s cash and a lot of high yield debt (i.e. junk bonds).  Sometimes the acquired companies are public companies, sometimes private concerns, sometimes subsidiaries of larger companies.  In any regard, the LBO concern believes it sees a fundamental flaw in the acquired company along with a path to fix that flaw.

The Roadrunner Show.  An LBO transaction is essentially a race.  The LBO company is racing to fix the company faster than the high interest junk bonds are racing to consume the company’s cash.  Sometimes the LBO concern wins the race, sometimes the junk bond interest wins the race.  Occasionally, the LBO company wins the race long enough to flip the company, cash out and leave the new owner with a big bag of dinosaur dung.  Regardless of how you perceive LBO companies, their leaders are among America’s top financiers, risk takers and economic luminaries.

The catcher’s mitt.  Bain Capital has undertaken over 250 corporate investments in its history.  While Mitt Romney was CEO, Bain entered into dozens of LBO transactions.  Some of Bain’s investments included Brookestone, Sealy Corporation, Domino’s Pizza and Sports Authority.  Bain also acquired companies which ultimately ended up bankrupt such as Ampad.

Pick any four.  Newt Gingrich’s pathetic pseudo-documentary follows the failure of four firms in which Romney’s Bain made investments.  All four of the firms ended up bankrupt and shuttered.  The film is a hatchet job, pure and simple.  There is no mention of the financial crisis that enveloped the firms before Bain bought them.  There is no discussion of the risk taken by Bain.  There is no mention of the many successful turn arounds performed by Bain while Mitt Romney was CEO.  Instead, Newt Gingrich’s propaganda film considers only four out of hundreds of Bain investments.

A professional politician.  Newt Gingrich’s adult life started with a long stint as a professional student and progressed to a failed career as a professor at West Georgia College.  He entered politics after being denied tenure at West Georgia.  He ran for the US House of Representatives in 1974 and 1976 losing both times.  In 1978 he had his “Forrest Gump” moment when the incumbent he opposed suddenly decided not to seek re-election.  Gingrich would spend the next 20 years in the House eventually becoming Speaker where he would face an astonishing 84 ethics investigations.  He would become the first Speaker in history sanctioned for ethical wrongdoings.  While investigating President Clinton during the Lewinski scandal Gingrich was himself having an extra-marital affair with a House staffer.  After the disastrous 1998 election, Gingrich retired from the House to write books, consult for Freddie Mac, make himself a multi-millionaire and bon vivant of the chattering class.

Hoping the Mayans are right.  In 2011, Gingrich came out of the cold and decided to run for president in the 2012 election.  His disorganized campaign got off to a slow start and then decelerated.  Observing Mitt Romney’s well run campaign from behind, Newt decided to do his best Leni Riefenstahl impression and have his PAC create “When Mitt Romney Comes to Town”.

15 minutes and eighteen  years.  Newt Gingrich had his 15 minutes of fame when he was touting the “Contract with America” 18 years ago.  He should have quit while he was behind.  Instead, he has embarrassed his party and himself with a simple-minded and shallow campaign including the low light of a 30 minute smear campaign disguised as a documentary.  Shame!

….. DJRippert

→ 19 Comments

Posted in 2012

Tagged

Deconstructing Virginia’s Primary Ballot Fiasco

Posted on January 4, 2012 by Groveton| 2 Comments


The Disappearing Candidates:  This year’s Republican Presidential Primary has opened the proverbial can of worms in Virginia.  Two prominent candidates, Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry, did not qualify to get on Virginia’s Republican primary ballot.  Many voters in Virginia are upset that they will not have the chance to consider Gingrich and Perry despite the fact that these two candidates are on virtually every other primary ballot in the country (Gingrich in Missouri may be another exception).  Virginia’s voters understandably wonder why this has happened in the Old Dominion.

A small bit of digging reveals that Virginia has America’s most onerous rules for getting on a presidential primary ballot.  Not only do the candidates have to acquire 10,000 validated signatures they also need a quota of signatures from each congressional district in the state.  By comparison, the next most onerous rules belong to Indiana which requires only 4,500 signatures.

Notice how my fingers never leave my hand.  There has been something of a backlash from both conservatives and liberals against this seeming incongruity in Virginia’s election laws.  Over at Black Velvet Bruce Li, conservative blogger Greg Letiecq wonders why there are only two candidates on the Republican primary ballot.  Meanwhile, at Blue Virginia, the spotlight is turned on to some questionable actions by Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling in this mess.

The reaction of our elected officials in Richmond has been more bizarre than usual (which is saying something).  Democratic State Senator Chap Petersen flip-flops in a recent blog post but ultimately concludes that, “Either way, the system is legitimate and weeds out the un-serious candidates.”  Del.Jackson Miller has taken to the comment sections of local blogs to add his support of the process citing numerous candidates from the past who have gotten on the ballot. Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli first sought to overturn the ruling but then decided to accept it.  One imagines that John Kerry is sitting somewhere thinking of Ken Cuccinelli and smiling.

The question that seems to be universally missed is why we have this odd, outlier of a process in the first place. Why is Virginia, by leaps and bounds, the most difficult state on which to join a primary ballot?

How much is that Romney in the window?  The answer, as usual, comes from the willingness of our state legislature and other so-called elites in Richmond to sell out the citizens of Virginia in the furtherance of their personal political ambitions.

The primary season is a time where there is a new front-runner almost every day, leading candidates drop out when their libidos are proven to outweigh their common sense and money is “here today, gone tomorrow.”  Against this backdrop, a candidate facing an onerous state process must decide whether to establish his or her own organization in that state or go “hat in hand” to the establishment politicians and ask for help.  Virginia’s absurdly difficult primary ballot process is designed to send national politicians to Richmond to grovel for organizational support in getting on the ballot.  The kingmakers in Richmond are only too happy to sell out their constituents’ right to choose in order to further their personal political careers with politicians who just might become the next President of the United States.  The only cost is the right of Virginia voters to chose their own candidate for president.  And, in the minds of Richmond’s elite, that is a small cost indeed.

The new ambassador to North Korea.  One day in the future, a formerly prominent Virginia state politician will have lost a major election or timed out on a term limit.  That politician will be on the outside looking in.  Yet, lo and behold, that same pol will end up being appointed as an ambassador to some far off land or under secretary of some obscure federal department.  Who knows, he may even end up as the chairman of the national party or the candidate for Vice President of the United States.

And all it cost was your right to choose who you want to be on the ballot for President of the United States.

Is Area 51 in Virginia?  Am I a conspiracy theorist?  Is there some innocent explanation as to why Virginia is an outlier in the matter of primary balloting? Perhaps.  However, I have yet to hear a single member of our “ruling class” explain the benefits of being an outlier to the citizens of Virginia. But, if one of our “masters” in Richmond cares to comment, I’d also like to better understand the prohibition against write-in votes and the loyalty oath.

– DJ Rippert.

→ 2 Comments

Posted in 2012, Federal, Governance reform, Politics, Uncategorized

HB19: Fly (What’s Left of) Me to the Moon

Posted on December 13, 2011 by Groveton| 5 Comments


2012: A space oddity.  I have long commented on the bizarre nature of Virginia’s General Assembly.  The annual General Assembly session in Richmond usually creates a sense of frustration and dismay among us voters.  In addition, it always provides ample material for comedy.  This year is no exception as Terry Kilgore (R – Scott County) has pre-filed legislation which would allow an individual income tax deduction for those opting to launch their cremated remains into orbit.  I am not making this up.  The bill can be found here.

Ground control to Major Terry.  Del. Kilgore’s proposed legislation would provide an $8,000 personal income tax exemption for those who elect to have their cremated remains launched into either Earth or lunar orbit.  And here’s the good news – you don’t actually have to die to get the deduction.  You just have to sign a contract with a Virginia spaceport to have your remains blasted into the cosmos.

Corporate welfare vs. corpse welfare.  Presumably, Del. Kilgore wants to drive a nail into the coffin of those who say that Virginia is not a modern society. He wants to kill the idea that Wallops Island is a lesser space base than Cape Canaveral.  Ashes to ashes, deduction to deduction.  You have to be as dead as Terry Kilgore’s political career to get into space with this proposed legislation.

Low budget cosmonaut.  I know what you are thinking, “A tax deduction is all well and good but how much will it cost to actually launch my cremated butt into orbit?”   A company named Celestis is already slinging people’s particles into the firmament.  Their price list allows for a final road trip at the affordable cost of between $2,995 and $12,500.  The higher price allows for the extra costs of launching into “deep space”.  For anybody considering this, please make it a point to wave to Terry Kilgore when you actually arrive in deep space.

Thinking outside the urn.  Terry Kilgore might be on to something here. Start with space ashes but then move to living people.  Pop them into a rocket and sell space sight-seeing tours.  Go into orbit and look down at the traffic chaos in Virginia caused by the General Assembly.  Virginia’s space port could even offer volume discounts for groups.  I wonder what Wallops Island would charge the taxpayers of Virginia for 140 one way seats into deep space?

Hat tip.  Greg Letiecq at Black Velvet Bruce Li.

By … Groveton

→ 5 Comments

Posted in Economic development, Entitlements, Politics, Science & Technology, Transportation, Uncategorized

Tagged ,