This is the transportation story so far:
Current strategies to provide mobility and access,
perpetuated by myth and fraud, are tragically
flawed. (“Self
Delusion and Fraud,” June 7, 2004.)
Current mobility strategies kill
tens-of-thousands every year, cause dependency
on foreign oil, run up balance of payments
deficits, and befoul the air and water. (“Death
and Taxes,” June
21, 2004.)
All citizens hear from the public officials
responsible for mobility and access is that
they need money. When voters say no to tax increases,
governance practitioners turn to private
“partners.” (“The
Perfect Storm,” July
12, 2004
).
The Other Solutions
Many, including those who know that the only long-term cure
for immobility and congestion is Fundamental
Change in human settlement patterns, say,
“Yes, you are right, but there must be other
solutions.” No
knowledgeable observer claims that any of
these are "the" solution, but
advocates of Business As Usual and those who
fear Fundamental Change spin discussion of
these tactics in ways that make it seem
that way.
In the July 12 issue of Bacon’s Rebellion ("The
Network of Space") Jim Bacon profiled
the wonders of telework. Tele-work can be
useful, but it can also exacerbate
regional immobility. Telework is not “the"
solution. If it were, it would have reduced
immobility and energy consumption already.
The idea of telework in all its current forms has been
around for over 30 years. The 1973 Arab oil
embargo brought forth scores of good telework
ideas (including telecommuting), teleservices
(including telemedicine and teleshopping) and
telerecreation. These ideas were predicted to
save energy, slash automobile dependency and
usher in the good life.
Three weeks ago, we recycled from
S/PI’s library well over 200 pounds of
private and public reports, including our own,
written between 1969 and 1994 on these topics.
As technology (hardware, software and bandwidth) improves,
so does the complexity of applications. That
is clearly the case regarding the substitution
of telecommunications for travel. When
telework was first a topic of intelligent
discussion, 60 percent of AM Peak trips were
Journey-to-Work trips. Now because
automobility has disaggregated all elements of
contemporary life, Journey to Work accounts
for only 25 percent of AM Peak trips.
In
Virginia,
the case on telework is very clear: Every
solution on the table in 2004 was outlined at
an April 1993 Williamsburg
Telecommuting Institute and Telework
Conference. “Workplace
2000" was sponsored by Virginia’s
Departments of Transportation and of Economic
Development. I am sure these topics were
covered because Linda (my wife and S/PI
partner) and I were responsible for the
content and selection of nationally recognized
speakers for the conference. In addition,
along with Secretary of Transportation John
Milliken, Secretary of Economic Development
Cathleen Magennis and Virginia Chamber of
Commerce Chairman Bob Skunda, Linda and I
participated in regional “opportunity to
expand your competitive options” fora on
telework. Well attended fora for private
executives from across the Commonwealth were
held in Hampton Roads, Richmond
and in the northern part of Virginia
to lay the ground work for the
commonwealth-wide conference.
That was 11 years ago. The regional
fora, the
Williamsburg
conference and a blue-ribbon Governor’s
Telework Advisory Council spread the word on
telework but it barely made a dent in the
mobility problem. Congestion has grown faster
than telecommunication substitutions for
travel could remove automobile trips. In some
cases, telework has encouraged
counterproductive disaggregation of travel
demand.
Besides telework, other tactics are often called “the
solution.” Transportation demand management
tactics including congestion pricing can help.
Jim Bacon makes the case for demand management
in “Straws in
the Wind,” April
12, 2004,
a column to which Ray Pethtel of Virginia Tech
took exception. Also see “Demand-Side
Economics,”
October
20, 2003.
Congestion management in all its forms is
exhaustively discussed in Tony Downs revised
book Still
Stuck in Traffic. Intelligent
transportation demand management can help, but
it is not “the solution.” In spite of
enthusiastic implementation in selected
regions, congestion continues to get worse in
every single region in the
United
States
and that trend is projected to continue.
Smaller cars can help. In the early 1990s, one could see
two mini Mercedes backed into a single parking
place perpendicular to the curb in Berlin,
Kobenhavn and elsewhere in Europe.
Mercedes says they will be importing these
cars to the United
States
by 2006. Pooled short-term rental cars at METRO
stations can help. See “Step
Up to Flex,”
May 10, 2004
.
Small, more efficient electric motors and hybrid
gas-electric cars can help with both car size
and energy consumption. However, even if Iraq,
Russia
and Saudi
Arabia
sent the United
States
their oil as a free goodwill gift and even if
every private vehicle had a new clean
emissions engine, it would not solve the
mobility problem.
As a matter of science, not policy, none of these tactics
–- telework, demand management and smaller
vehicles, energy efficiency, etc. -– are
“the solution” to growing immobility.
More widespread use of these tactics
may make congestion “better,” but each
“improvement’ separately barely makes a
blip, and all together they cannot solve the
problem of immobility and lack of access
caused by dysfunctional human settlement
patterns. In fact, adding these tactics to a
program to build more roadways without
fundamental change in human settlement
patterns would only result in immobility
getting worse a little less quickly. As noted
in “The Perfect
Storm,” July
12, 2004
,
adding shared-vehicle systems to the mix
without the creation of supporting
station-area land uses just wastes money
faster.
It turns out that none of “the other solutions” are
really “solutions.” Individually and
collectively, the best that can be said is
that they can help mitigate immobility and
lack of access while human settlement patterns
are changed and transport system capacity is
balanced with travel demand.
Unfortunately, just talking about these tactics in glowing
terms gives governance practitioners –- both
elected and appointed -– an excuse to
obfuscate reality.
It gives editorial writers the
opportunity to champion this or that idea. (See column by A. Barton
Hinkle in the Richmond
Times Dispatch on July 13 citing with
approval Jim Bacon’s column “Straws in the
Wind” noted above.)
A Matter of Physics
The core problem with private-vehicle-based mobility (aka,
automobility) in an urban society is a matter
of geometry and physics, not public policy. Length
x width x height = volume for each vehicle.
This quantity plus the width x length x
headroom of roadways =
the space required for automobility.
This is space that is consigned to
automobility even if there are no automobiles
using the space. Based on this geometry,
physics determines the parameters of traffic
congestion. (See the PowerPoint presentation
“The Physics of Gridlock” by
SYNERGY/Planning, April 2003.)
Each standard-size private vehicle occupies 200 +/- times
more space to park and from 400 to 4,000 times
the space to drive as a person requires to
stand and walk. Collectively, the space
occupied by a mobility system relying on
automobiles has disaggregated the origins and
destinations of trips in contemporary society
to such an extent that the pattern of land use
is not amenable or convenient for human use
unless they resort to a vehicle. (One way to
come to an understanding about the role of
automobiles in human settlement patterns is to
understand the place of horses in urban areas
over the past 6,000 years. See End
Note One, a reprint of a box from Chapter
13 of The
Shape of the Future.)
Creating pathways and safety devices to accommodate
bicycles and Ginger/Segway, the two-wheeled
human transporter offered on Amazon.Com, cut
space and energy consumption as compared to
automobiles. These alternates also can make
walking almost as convenient. But they cannot
be effectively applied in an
automobile-dominated human settlement pattern.
The bottom line is that there must be Fundamental Change in
human settlement patterns.
That is good because the settlement
patterns that do “work” from a
transportation perspective also are the ones
where humans feel most happy and safe, as
measured by the square-foot value of urban
property. (See “Wild
Abandonment,” September
8, 2003.)
Humans cannot achieve safety and happiness
relying on automobility.
How We Got Here
Before a path out of immobility is sketched out, it may be
useful to understand how we got here.
It would not have had to come to this, if only...
1.
There
were not an oversupply of land for urban
development. This oversupply means that
developers, builders and the others in the
“business-as-usual” crowd can make larger
profits in the short run by building in places
where land is cheaper. The land is cheaper
because it is not well located with respect to
other, critical land uses.
These important uses are the same ones
necessary to create a balance of
jobs/housing/services/recreation/ amenity --
the resources needed to create Balanced
Communities. Building automobile roadways
provides access to remote land. This
facilitates land and building sales and
short-term profits for developers, builders
and related sectors of the economy. These
roadways thwart the market which, but for the
subsidy, would agglomerate Balanced
Communities.
2.
Developers,
home builders, road builders, land speculators
were not quite so greedy. Citizens need
some land developed and a lot of land
redeveloped. They need new and renewed housing
and probably some new roadways. However, the
roadways citizens need are ones to serve
functional human settlement patterns, not
roadways to create new access to cheap land
for scattered urban land uses.
3.
Transportation
planners told the truth and governance
practitioners had the backbone to tell
citizens they have been led to have
unrealistic expectations and are deluding
themselves with respect to the realities of
access and mobility. (See “Self
Delusion and Fraud,” June 7, 2004. and
“The Perfect
Storm”,
July
12, 2004
.)
4.
Citizens
understood transport reality and could
therefore avoid making bad location decisions
based myths and misrepresentations.
Fortunately, in a democracy, there is a silver bullet -–
citizen education.
Governance practitioners must begin
arming citizens with the information necessary
to understand what it requires to provide
mobility and access.
How Do Virginians
Extract Themselves from Delusion-Induced
Misrepresentations?
If government policy, programs, controls and incentives are
the problem, what is the solution?
An answer is not “less government,” but “better
governance.” Better governance does
not mean bigger state or municipal
governments. It means that a Fundamental
Change in governance must go hand-in-hand with
Fundamental Change in human settlement
patterns. It
means there needs to evolve a governance
structure that reflects the organic structure
of human settlement patterns at every level
from the cluster to the New Urban Region.
Every sage observer of land-use/transportation dysfunction
correctly suggests the need for “regional
transportation planning.” Some even suggest
“balanced, regional-scale land-use and
transportation planning” is necessary. The
idea of a “regional” transportation agency
is a good one. However, in large jurisdictions
made up of multiple beta communities like Fairfax
County,
no governance practitioner (and no citizen)
would support giving away power to some even
more remote body without profound governance
reform that also provides a voice to
cluster-scale, neighborhood-scale,
village-scale and community-scale concerns.
Some argue that we need a strong hand to dictate where
transportation facilities go, even if it has
to be over the dead bodies of NIMBYs and
BANANAs. Sorry, we have had Robert Moses, and
that does not work. Transportation
dictatorship does not function any better than
other forms of dictatorship. Neither does
sneaking a project by the woodchucks while
they are sleeping, as was done in the third
quarter of the 20th century. The
sleeping woodchucks are now wide awake, active
citizens.
It comes down to this: If
there is to be a significant improvement in
mobility and access, there must be Fundamental
Change in human settlement patterns and in
governance structure.
How will this happen? Citizens must understand
transportation/land-use relationships and the
need for Fundamental Change. Then there must
be a process such as the one outlined in “The
Shape of Richmond’s
Future,”
Feb
16, 2004.
What are the alternatives? Growing traffic
congestion, economic stagnation, social
instability and environmental degradation.
You say that is good in theory, but “It will not
happen.” This is not a multiple choice
issue. See
“Yes, But...”
April
26, 2004
.
The next column will consider the role of the media in
getting from where we are to where we must be.
End
Note 1: The Carriageless Horse
Horses have been part of urban civilization for 6,000
years. Horses were (and are) consumptive and
expensive to maintain, and so for most of this
period, horses have been limited to use in
high value-added activities. These have
included war and transport of those at the top
of the economic food chain.
When large groups of humans -- e.g., those living on the
Steppes of Central Asia or the High Plains of
North America -- wanted to (or were forced to)
take advantage of the speed and range that the
horse provided, they had to move to much
lower-density settlement patterns in order to
provide pasture for the horse and to dispose
of the horse manure. The horse required a
density so low that these peoples became
nomads and/or mobile raiding parties because
they could not support themselves and their
horses in some more amenable pattern.
The pattern of human settlement that accommodated the wide-spread use
of the horse proved, over time, to be less
desirable than an alternative pattern which
forsakes a horse for every adult. Humans found
it better to live in settlement patterns where
citizens did not need to use the extended
range and speed of the horse in order to carry
out their everyday activities.
Horses made a run at changing human settlement pattern
early in the Industrial Era. The steel wheel
and the gravel crusher made horse-drawn
omnibuses, coaches and buggies useful urban
vehicles. The rising affluence and expansion
of the middle class, coupled with the
conversion of pre-industrial cities into
industrial centers with expanding
“suburbs,” led to an expansion of horse
ownership for travel by individuals. The
private horses plus the horses used in public
transit, i.e., the omnibus, caused the urban
horse population to briefly skyrocket.
Horse manure piled up in the streets. The European House
Sparrow introduced to North America
to combat enemies of the Linden Tree learned
to feed year round on the grass
and hayseed that had passed through the horse. Horse manure
and sparrows became
twin urban problems in the cores of late 19th century North
American Industrial
Centers. The first automobiles were seen as a nonpolluting
alternative to the horse.
When humans have used the automobile for as long as they
have used the horse, citizens will find the
auto, like the horse, serves civilization in
much more limited ways than it is currently
imagined by auto manufacturers or most
citizens who do not yet realize there is
a choice.
--
July 26, 2004