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Two
topics of critical importance to the creation of
functional human settlement patterns in the
National Capital Subregion have occupied
regional and community media over the last few
weeks: The sorry state of METRO, and the
proposed military base realignments.
Both
are important but most of the coverage and the
positions taken by many of the
“stakeholders” miss the critical issues: the
real problem with METRO, and the potential up
side of base realignments.
METRO's
Core Problem
Without
doubt, the problems with METRO documented in the
recent Washington Post series, the
follow-up editorials and the ensuing CYA
political posturing are real and important. They
stem, however, from a root dysfunction, a
premise upon which METRO was based: In a
Subregion with three million (now five million)
citizens and center-weighted jobs, the idea that
any shared-vehicle system could pump workers
into the core in the a.m. and out of the core in
the p.m. is fundamentally flawed.
The
concept
defies the laws of physics. (See our
backgrounder, “It
is Time to Fundamentally Rethink METRO and
Mobility in the National Capital Subregion,”
Oct. 18, 2004.)
The
result of this system/demand imbalance is that
"most of the trains leave most of the
stations most of the time essentially
empty."
Of
course at certain times--in the a.m. inbound and
in the p.m. outbound --METRO is crowded. At all
times it is inefficient.
How
does this result in mismanagement and other well
documented shortcomings? The system has
champions, and some riders are supporters as
documented by the letters to the editor that
have appeared since the series ran.
But
in spite of fans, impressive ridership numbers
and the well documented relief provided for
alternative mobility systems, METRO has never
developed subregion-wide popularity. Most people
perceive it as a way to get "the other
guy" off the roads "so I can
drive."
Without
Fundamental Change the METRO system will never
serve a large percentage of the residents (aka,
voters) and always will be crowded and breaking
down. The system never will generate support for
the revenue sources necessary to fix the
problems, and it never will attract the kind of
personnel needed to run a first-rate system
shared-vehicle system.
The
“solutions,” explored in detail in the
backgrounder cited above, include:
Extensions
of METRO to Greater Tysons Corner/Greater
Reston/Dulles and perhaps to
Baltimore-Washington International will make the
METRO system even more dysfunctional without
Fundamental Changes in station-area settlement
patterns. Now, due to military base realignment
there is a new set of extension proposals. Many
in Maryland would like METRO to serve Fort
George G. Meade and many in Virginia would like
METRO to serve Fort Belvoir.
These
changes could make METRO either more
dysfunctional or, with intelligent action,
improve its viability.
Military
Base Realignment
In
most parts of the country, the base realignment
issue means closing “our” base. In the
National Capital Subregion it entails moving
military personnel out of rented space and
relocating them to existing military bases. It
turns out that the major relocation destinations
are within the logical location for the Clear
Edge.
The
proposed relocations could help create Balanced
Communities both in the places where defense
jobs move from and where they move to.
For example, intelligent changes in Crystal City
could move Greater South Arlington toward being
a Balanced Community. An intelligent relocation
of jobs to Fort Belvoir plus a METRO extension
with balanced station-area land uses could help
make Lorton/South Fairfax into a Balanced
Community.
Most
governance practitioners and many smart growth
advocates are missing a great opportunity to
kill two birds with one stone: fixing what
really ails METRO, and creating Balanced
Communities.
The
first step is understanding the need to create
Balanced Communities and the need to develop a
transport system that matches the distribution
of demand.
One
oft-mentioned obstacle to creating Balanced
Communities is the myth that it will
take “forever” to change human settlement
patterns. But the evidence
shows that change can take place with remarkable
speed in the urban core. The Smith
organization, which owns the buildings
Crystal City, is talking already about
converting office buildings to residential. The
Crystal Lofts could be on the market in less
than a year after the military leaves--far more
quickly than a developer could build a
comparable number of dwellings in a green-field
site. As a bonus, Crystal City is already served
by METRO and VRE.
By
contrast, it would take decades to balance the
current residential pattern near the Clear Edge. The market proves that most
enterprises and agencies prefer to locate closer
to the urban core: They want to put the jobs
where employees will work most productively.
That is why office rents are highest in the core
of the National Capital Subregion.
It
would be impossible to provide functional and
efficient residences and services for workers in
widely scattered locations or jobs for urban
residential development scattered across the
Countryside. The private sector has been
trying to do this for 30 years and the outcome
is always the same: It does not work for most
categories of highly killed workers. Just ask America
Online.
Security
by Dispersal
The
location of the relocated defense jobs and the
new GSA building security standards raise
another issue: the Myth of Security by
Dispersal.
We
will address the issue of the new “security”
standards for federal buildings in a future
column. These standards may have as much or more
impact as the base realignments and need to be
treated with as much urgency.
First,
it must be understood that the only long-term
defense against terrorism is to remove the
causes of terrorism.
Second, the best
defense against all forms of disorder including
terrorism at the Alpha-Dooryard, Alpha-Cluster,
Alpha-Neighborhood, Alpha-Village,
Alpha-Community and regional scales is
functional human settlement patterns. Functional
human settlement patterns results in a stable
social fabric and as Jane Jacobs put it “eyes
on the street.”
Dispersal
and isolation has the opposite impact as we
document in "The Shape of the Future."
Dispersal of jobs in "secure campus" configurations
only shifts the target from one location to
another, and does not create attractive
places for the most skilled and creative want to
work.
The
METRO problems, the base realignments and
security concerns all underscore the need for a
comprehensive plan for the Washington-Baltimore
New Urban Region and for the National Capital
Subregion that provides for evolution of
Balanced Communities.
--
June 20, 2005
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