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Creative Destruction
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Driving
Around in Circles
Virginia's
transportation system is bad and getting worse. Clueless
on how to fix it, Virginia's political leadership is like the guy who's
totally lost and refuses to ask for directions.
My
first reaction upon reading that Gov. Mark R. Warner had
proposed doling out an extra $824 million for
transportation funding was to throw up my hands and beg,
"Please don't shoot." I felt like I was being
robbed. Instead of giving the surplus generated by this
year's unneeded tax increases back to taxpayers, the
Governor wanted to use much of it to fund construction of road
and transit projects that, in the long run, would
benefit no one but a handful of big developers and
contractors.
Upon
closer examination of his proposal, I wasn't quite as
upset. Sure, the Governor's transportation package
represented Business As Usual, a continuation of the
mindset and policies that have wrecked Virginia's transportation
system over the decades. But at least it was fiscally
responsible Business As Usual--an improvement over
the reckless policies of the previous administration.
Politically,
the Governor has staked out a position smack dab in the center. He threw an $824 million bone to the
business lobbies, drawing mainly upon the fiscal
2005 surplus and other one-time revenue sources. By
avoiding a tax increase, however, the plan does appease the anti-tax crowd
and the environmentalists who, for quite different
reasons, oppose a tax-spend-build transportation
strategy. Posting
himself at the fulcrum of the political balance of
power, Warner stands a very good chance of getting his
way.
Sadly,
the Governor missed an opportunity to overhaul
Virginia's transportation system in the same dramatic
fashion that he has pushed re-engineering of the state
government bureaucracy. In a press
release outlining the key points in his proposed
legislative package, Warner never questioned that
building more road and transit projects is what Virginia
ought to do if only it could
afford to. Not one word acknowledged that any
long-term solution to traffic congestion in Virginia
requires not only increasing the capacity of the
transportation system but also addressing the
sky-rocketing demand for new capacity as
reflected by the ever-increasing number of miles
motorists drive every year.
I
was doubly disappointed because, over
the past several months, Secretary of Transportation Whitt
Clement and Virginia Department of Transportation
Commissioner Philip Shucet had made promising noises
about transportation policy. Both gentlemen have stated
publicly that Virginia cannot address traffic congestion without also correcting
the scattered, low-density pattern of development that compels people to take more
automobile trips and drive ever greater distances.
Although both officials believe the
transportation system requires more funds, they also
have argued that spending the money wisely requires a meaningful connection between transportation
planning on the state level and land use planning on the
local level.
There
is no evidence, however, that these insights have penetrated the Governor's
Office. The proposed funding package doesn't give even a token nod in the direction of land use reform,
telework or other demand-side transportation strategies,
Nor, for that matter, does the plan invest in what
Shucet refers to as "operational" efficiency--using
traffic light sequencing, for instance, to move cars
more efficiently through the existing network of roads
and streets. (See Shucet's observations in "Silicon
for Asphalt", September 20, 2004.)
“Our
Transportation Partnership Act of 2005 is not
business-as-usual," Warner proclaimed in announcing
the initiative. His plan does put transportation funding
on a more fiscally sound footing by returning to a
pay-as-you-go system rather than borrowing against
future revenues. Otherwise, the document is very
much Business As Usual, emblematic of the simplistic
notion that if roads are congested, we must build more
roads.
I
must hasten to add that Mark Warner has no monopoly on myopia. If
anything, senior members of the state senate are even
blinder to reality.
Where Warner would mainly wash the current state surplus
down the storm drain, Senate Finance Chair John
Chichester,
R-Fredericksburg, would happily enact permanently higher
taxes so we could waste an extra billion dollars year
after year. Attorney General candidate Steven Baril,
seemingly a sensible person otherwise, has called for a
"Marshall Plan" that would borrow
billions of dollars to flush away, obligating future generations. As for the
anti-tax forces in the House of Delegates, they come
across as muddled and confused on transportation. If anyone in the House
has developed a coherent alternative to tax-spend-build,
I haven't seen it.
Right
now, Gov. Warner is the only person with a concrete
proposal on the table--The
Transportation Partnership Act of 2005--so let's
take a look.
First,
the Governor advocates "cleaning the slate"
from past deficit spending practices. The Gilmore
administration had figured out how to accelerate road
funding by borrowing against anticipated transportation
revenues from the federal government. It was a departure
from Virginia's fiscally conservative pay-as-you-go
policy and Warner is quite correct to end it. The
Governor’s transportation package will devote $256 million
to eliminating deficits on projects completed
as of July 1, 2004.
“Cleaning
up the books isn’t just the right thing to do from
some abstract, accounting point of view," Warner
stated. "By paying off debts, we hasten the day
when new projects can move from the drawing board to
construction to actual completion.”
OK,
I'll buy that. I am totally opposed to pumping more
money into the state's dysfunctional transportation
system, but that doesn't mean I favor draining the
limited, overcommitted revenue sources that we do
have.
Second,
Warner proposes adding $147 million in funding for
projects in Virginia’s six-year program. Says the
press release: “This new revenue is the result of
sustainable, long-term revenue growth, and the
Commonwealth Transportation Board will use the existing
transportation allocation formula to distribute these
funds to ports, airports, transit providers, and
highways by July 2005.”
Warner's
press release is not clear where that $147 million comes
from. If it originates from the organic
growth in existing transportation revenue streams, as
the document implies, then
I have no problem with it. If I am correct, this money
does not represent a new obligation to the state.
Indeed, it's little more than a sop to the
developer/road builder lobby and an effort to spin this
transportation package into something bigger than it
really is.
Third,
the Governor proposes creating a $140 million revolving
loan fund to encourage private firms to invest their
resources in public-private partnerships. I was long a
big fan of public-private partnerships--until the darn
things started started running into trouble. The
privately financed Dulles Greenway went belly up, and
the state had to take it over. The Rt. 28 tax district
near Dulles Airport has been a fiasco for years. And now
the toll-driven Pocahontas Parkway project, which
completes the circumferential highway around Richmond,
is in danger of default. Once again, the press release
is not clear where this money would come from either. As
always, I hew to the position, not one dime more for
transportation funding without fundamental reform.
Fourth,
there's another $103 million for rail and transportation
partnerships. I don't know enough about the projects
Warner has in mind to say whether they're sound or not.
But I maintain a perennial attitude of suspicion. A lot
of people like railroads, buses and light rail simply
because they get people out of automobiles. But I'm not
a rail romantic. To my way of thinking, a stupid,
money-losing investment in mass transit makes no more
sense than a stupid, money-losing expansion of the road
network. Mass transit requires an urban configuration of land
uses--more compact development,
pedestrian-friendly environments, and tighter
integration of work, office, shopping and other
activities--to be economically viable. Subsidizing
transit in places like Fairfax County, given the current
pattern of development around METRO stops, will simply
create a long-term drain on the treasury.
The
Governor rounds out his package with $80 million to
"strengthen local partnerships" and $97.4
million to maintain "Virginia's highways, bridges
and neighborhood streets." Sorry, but that sounds
like pork to me. Let me know what the projects are, and
whose legislative districts they reside in, and I'll
tell you if this is a good way to spend transportation
dollars.
As
justification for entrusting VDOT with close to $1
billion in extra money, Warner cites the department's
improved performance over the past three years. VDOT has
eliminated 1,000 positions and saved $50 million in
payroll. It's also developed business tools to measure
and manage projects, bringing in a higher percentage of
them on time and on budget. That's all very true, and
the Warner administration deserves credit for bringing
VDOT back from the brink of managerial chaos.
Further,
I'm all in favor of cycling that $50 million in annual
savings back into transportation spending. Revenue sources
like the gas tax, enacted with the promise
that they would be dedicated to transportation, should, in fact, be dedicated to transportation
and not siphoned away to pay for other programs.
Conversely, non-transportation revenues
should not be siphoned away to pay for transportation.
But, according to coverage in the Richmond
Times-Dispatch, 40 percent of the spending
contemplated in Warner's proposal, or $374 million, will
come from this year's General Fund surplus.
Now,
let's talk about what the Warner transportation package
does not do.
The
package never acknowledges the underlying reason why
Virginia faces a transportation crisis today. The crisis
stems not from a lack of money but the fact that
Virginians have been increasing their driving faster
than the state can add new roads and transit capacity.
And
why are Virginians driving so much more? Because state
and local policies have combined to create a built environment in our suburbs that makes it
impossible to participate in normal, everyday life
without an automobile. Because it is all but impossible
across most of Virginia to reach any meaningful
destination by foot, bike, bus or METRO. Because every
person over 16 must have his or her own car or live like
a hermit in an isolated cul de sac. Because we have
separated different land uses--where we live, work,
shop, attend school, go to church, etc.--by such large
distances, we must drive farther and farther to get
anywhere.
There is
nothing controversial about these observations. Everyone involved in
local government, development and road building knows it.
The only thing that's controversial is when a public
official dares utter this
truth out loud.
Until
we achieve Fundamental Change in our scattered, haphazard,
pedestrian-toxic patterns of development, no amount
of funding, no number of highway projects and no amount of
mass transit, will relieve traffic congestion for an
appreciable length of time. Indeed, there is an ample
body of theory and evidence to suggest that roads create
their own demand by lowering the cost for households and
businesses to scatter their locations over ever greater
land masses. Without
Fundamental Change, spending more money on
transportation projects does little to improve mobility
and access. It only postpones the inevitable reckoning--at considerable cost to
taxpayers.
Admittedly,
achieving Fundamental Change--repairing the
dysfunctional pattern of land use that characterizes 80
percent of our built environment--will be a complex and
drawn-out process. Even if the political will existed,
it would take decades. To help us cope before we gag on the exhaust
fumes of our traffic-stalled cars,
there are a variety of ameliorative strategies we could
pursue. They include:
-
Promote
telework, hoteling and the "network of
space". (For those unfamiliar with the
concept of the "network of space," see the
column
of the same name, July 12, 2004.)
Unless
there are details omitted by the press release, the
proposed Warner transportation package allocates no new
money to increase operational efficiencies, it does
nothing to manage transportation demand, and it is
oblivious to the potential of telework. It's all about
finding more money to build, build, build.
The
political class, as I observed last week (See "The
Triumph of the Political Class," November 29,
2004), dominates the
public discourse on transportation policy. Political
reporters, understanding nothing of transportation or
land use, have failed utterly and completely to
explicate the real issues. With one or two exceptions, editorial
pundits across Virginia remain obsessed with irrelevant partisan
distinctions--
Republican vs. Democrat, liberal vs.
conservative--have evinced not the slightest
understanding of transportation dynamics. The business lobby, once a
foe of higher taxes, has bought the line of its developer/construction/financier faction,
partly out of
misguided loyalty to fellow businessmen perhaps, or,
more likely, out of
a desperate need to do something.
In
sum, Virginia's political, business and civic elites
suffer from a calamitous failure of imagination and
collapse of critical facilities. Driving aimlessly with
no clear idea of where they're going or how to get
there, our lawmakers are making up policy as they go
along. It is up to us, the citizens, to give them a
sense of direction.
--
December 13, 2004
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