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In
Virginia this past year, the John Kerry presidential
campaign spent nearly $2 million on television
advertisements and manned statewide offices with
30-plus staff members.
But
in October, it's been all tricks, not treats,
for statewide Democrats.
Most
Virginia Democrats thought Gov. Mark R. Warner would
become an effective Kerry stand-in and assist with
the campaign victory to the end. But where is Warner
now? He's not barnstorming the state, that's for
sure.
Warner
had promised a rousing Democratic fight
and potential Kerry victory at Boston Democratic
convention.
But
then again, Gov. Mollycoddle promised not to
raise state taxes either.
How
about that potential Kerry victory in Virginia you
promised Democrats? Is
that a pipe dream as well?
Last
month, the Kerry for President campaign pulled TV
advertising money from the Commonwealth, and
last week the campaign added insult to injury with
the removal of two-thirds of the Virginia Kerry
campaign staff members.
It's
the buzz right now.
The
Kerry staff left 12 volunteers to maintain the
office and get-out-the-
vote efforts in Virginia,
which is 11 more staff than Democratic
candidate Al Gore maintained in 2000. But
that's not an apples-to-apples comparison.
It's
more like comparing Kerry's polished
apples to a rotten banana of a Gore
campaign.
Based
on my past campaign experiences, I'd say the Kerry
staffers who remained behind are legit and
professional field campaign managers, but the
regional offices are most likely being manned
by unemployed teen-agers and younger adults who will fill
their days playing on the 'Net - and IM'ing
(instant messaging) their friends for the rest
of the campaign.
In
other words, campaign signs and bumper stickers will
be available, but you need to pick them up at the
local Democratic campaign office. And probably pay
for the signs, bumper stickers, etc. on your dime, I
might add.
The
statewide coordinated phone bank for Kerry just hung
up. But you can volunteer to carry the torch, and
pay the phone bills - if you're feeling lonely and
depraved and have lots of extra phone minutes.
Those
coordinated rides to the polling precincts are
probably gone as well.
The
air has been let out of that tire.
"It's
like a sucker punch to the gut," wrote a Valley
Democrat to the Blue Dog.
After
the TV money ran dry, the Kerry campaign staffs
probably made the decision to removed to greener
pastures, and have been packing their luggage
and probably purchasing heavy-duty
winter-weather coats.
That
was more than a month ago - in late
August.
The
Associated Press wrote, "Shawn Smith, a
spokesman for the Republican Party of Virginia,
called the move a 'huge setback for the Virginia
Democrats' effort to compete for the state's
electoral votes."
But
why, may you ask, redirect staff to Wisconsin and
Minnesota, of all places?
In
2000, Gore won the cheese head state by 6,000 votes,
but the latest 2004 Wisconsin polls show Bush with
an 8 percent lead with likely voters.
Right
now, that's about the same gap as Virginia - at
52-44 percent. Coincidentally,
in the presidential election in 2000, Bush won
Virginia 52-44 percent.
In
Virginia, Republican Bush won 1,437,490 votes to
Democrat Gore's 1,217,290 votes.
In
2004, Wisconsin is pivotal with the Kerry campaign
strategy - which is based on the winning key states
and those electoral votes - but in hindsight, that
twisted strategy didn't work for Al Gore in 2000.
Another
liberal Mecca, the state of Minnesota, is likely
endangered Democratic territory as well.
While
Bush has never surrendered his solid lead in
Southern states, the Bush and his handlers have campaign
diligently in those swing states of Wisconsin and
Minnesota. Heck, Bush never really made the personal
appearance effort a high priority in Virginia - and
the TV advertising money has been average-to-low
end.
Interesting,
huh?
With
the huge surge in registered voters, winning debate
encounters and Kerry's rising poll numbers, nationwide
Democrats appear to have the momentum in other
regions of the country, but will it be enough for
Kerry to top the incumbent in electoral votes?
The
presidential battleground has always been a
battle for the Mid-Atlantic region and
Great Plains states, not the Southern states.
Does
that mean Virginia was never in play?
Last
week in The Washington Post, Ken Hutcheson,
the Virginia Bush-Cheney campaign director, said,
"Clearly, this was coming all along."
Hutcheson
added, "The Kerry camp has realized after
numerous polls that the campaign is under water and
has no prayer in Virginia."
Too
bad that Kerry campaign relocation happened on the
same day as the local Rockingham-Harrisonburg
Democratic HQ grand opening. That's a case of bad
timing for those folks, and a good time to start
praying for that divine intervention" come
Election Day.
But
with a half-million new voters registered in
Virginia, and the 59,000 Nader votes from 2000 that
are potential swing votes for Democrats, is the
Virginia election still in play?
Is
there a light at the end of the liberal, err...
tunnel vision.
Let's
do the dumb math: Even with the potential Nader
votes going to Kerry, and let's say for the sake of
argument, that the majority of newly registered
Virginia voters are Democrats.
That
adds up to victory for Kerry, don't you think?
Bacon's
Rebellion editorial
columnist and GOP icon Pat McSweeney warned fellow
Republican Party members not to underestimate
Kerry's potential in the Commonwealth
concerning the upcoming presidential election.
In
Rockingham and Augusta County, the Blue Dog has
noticed that the number of "Kerry for
President" signs on lots, and property formally
reserved for Mountain Valley Republicans is
sprouting up like spring corn stalks on the
major Valley byways.
It's
notable for Democrats, Republicans and independents that
keep an eye on the neighborhood politics, but it's
not prevalent, or Earth-shattering. At least,
not yet.
Despite
the GOP warnings and signs of the times, the
Blue Dog still believes Kerry will need the
luck of the Irish to win the conservative Valley,
and the Commonwealth.
--
October 18, 2004
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