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The
Conventional Wisdom says the Common-
wealth faces
shortfalls in transportation funding over the next
20 years amounting to tens of billions of dollars.
Without new sources of revenue, Virginians will
endure a dystopic future of overloaded highways,
chronic traffic congestion, lost productivity and
grueling, high-stress commutes. But, then, the
Conventional Wisdom never reckoned on Craig Franklin
or the extraordinary creativity of free markets.
Franklin,
CEO of Leesburg-based Trichord Incorporated, is
bringing the information technology revolution to Virginia’s
roads and highways, a realm not normally known for a
frantic pace
of innovation. He modestly refers to
himself as a “value added reseller” of the SAS-1
traffic sensor manufactured by another
Northern
Virginia company, SmarTek Systems in Woodbridge.
SAS-1, says Franklin, provides state-of-the-art
accoustic technology to calculate the number and
speed of vehicles in multiple lanes of traffic.
Franklin
powers these sensors with solar collectors and
hitches them to wireless technology to transmit real-time traffic
data to
his servers.
The
integration of technologies is cool. But what's
truly revolutionary is what Franklin does with the
information. In
years past, traffic data has sat in data vaults
accessible only to the Virginia Department of
Transportation. But Franklin is pumping it out to
businesses and commuters, who can use it to make
better-informed decisions on where and when to
drive. He can deliver real-time traffic data over
the Internet -- see WTOP TV's traffic
feature -- or to your cell phone. He can tell
commuters how long it will take them to drive down
Interstate 95. He can alert corporate fleet managers when
congestion is clogging up traffic along key routes.
Trichord's
information services are to VDOT's primitive
roadside traffic signs what Interstate highways are
to dirt roads. By putting detailed and actionable information
into the hands of thousands
of Virginia commuters before they hop into their cars and
commit themselves to particular routes at particular
times, Craig Franklin represents the vanguard of a
movement that will empower motorists and businesses
to reshape the demand for highway transportation.
Inevitably, planners will have to
re-think policies predicated on the notion that the
thirst for mobility can be addressed only
by adding more supply -- more roads, more buses,
more mass transit, all requiring billions of dollars
of more taxes.
Change
won't come overnight. At present, Franklin
is collecting information only along Northern
Virginia's Interstates; his service does not cover
dozens of other vital arteries such as U.S. 29, U.S.
28, U.S. 50 or the Fairfax County Parkway -- and it
isn't yet clear whether commuters will pay for
Interstate data without also knowing what's
happening on alternative routes. Also, like state
government, Trichord is constrained by finances. The
pace at which Franklin can install sensors on more routes is
limited by his ability to generate cash from
existing investments. But there are competitors
close on his heels. If he can't make it happen,
someone else will.
The
underlying idea is not new. The federal government has
been researching "Intelligent Transportation
Systems" for 15 years or more,
funding dozens of test projects around the country.
But the feds have been unable to move beyond
small-scale studies. Meanwhile, VDOT has installed
dozens of its own sensors along Interstates and
feeds it back to the public through programmable,
roadside signs. The system, advanced though it may
be by the
standards of state transportation departments, is
primitive compared to the technology that is readily
available. "Warning, Congestion Ahead in Five
Miles" does not give a driver much information
to go on. Franklin is the first person to figure
out how to make a business out of collecting traffic
data and putting it into the hands of people when
they can use it to alter the timing and route of
their trips -- and the first to figure out how to
pay for the information.
A
computer engineer by training, Franklin moved to the
Washington metro
area in the late 1980s to work for a government contractor on a
ballistic missile defense project. In 1992, he
switched lanes into transportation project, delving into
work on intelligent vehicle highway systems. In 2000, he
launched Trichord with the help of some outside
investors.
Trichord
provided a range of services at first, selling
consulting services and acting as a value-added
reseller of traffic sensors. In February 2002, his board made a vital decision: Focus on selling
data. Says Franklin: "Our primary role now is
as a wholesaler of real-time traffic data."
Trichord
negotiated a deal with VDOT, allowing it to
deploy its own sensors along Virginia interstates in
locations where VDOT didn't already have them, and
to share data with the transportation agency. Since then, Franklin says, five other
companies have either sought or entered into similar
agreements, although, to his
knowledge, no other private company has yet
installed its own sensors on VDOT right of way.
Now
Trichord is developing channels to re-sell the data. It has
closed deals with WTOP, a Washington-area television
station that provides extensive traffic and
commuting coverage. It has contracted with RatRace
USA to deliver data to subscribers' cell phones, and
it retails its own Jamtracker product aimed at fleet
managers. Long-term, says Franklin, he hopes to deploy
sensors along the Interstate in Hampton Roads and
Richmond, and then along other major arterials.
He'll also move into Maryland when he can close a deal with the
Maryland transportation department.
Franklin
doesn't oversell his technology -- he doesn't
pretend that it's some silver bullet that can save
Virginia
from the scourge of traffic congestion. But he does contend that
providing real-time traffic data can affect demand.
Acting on the information he supplies them, some people will
start their commutes earlier or later in the day than they normally
would, spreading demand for road access over time.
Some people will plot alternate routes,
redistributing demand from overloaded arteries to to
less congested byways. Finally, some will put their
car keys in their pockets and take the bus or Metro.
Perhaps most important of all people will use the
information to take much of the guesswork, uncertainty and
stress out of commuting.
Fortuitously,
the revolution in Intelligent Transportation Systems
coincides with a major rethinking in Virginia policy
circles on how to cope with traffic congestion. Since the defeat last year
of the sales tax-increase referenda, designed to
raise money for massive new highway and transit
construction,
transportation lobbies have shifted tactics. Now, in
Northern Virginia at least, they're touting the idea
of converting HOV lanes to HOT lanes. These High
Occupancy Toll lanes are not limited to carpoolers
-- a declining species on Virginia's highways -- but
can be used by anyone willing to pay the extra
charge.
Contrary
to the characterization of critics, HOT lanes aren't
just for Yuppies in Beamers too spoiled to slog it
out in the slow lanes. HOT lanes create a fast-track alternative for any driver in a time
pinch, whether they're running late to the office, a
business appointment
or day care.
The
drawback of HOT lanes is not that they are
"unfair," but that they require drivers to
possess more information about traffic conditions
than they currently have. If a driver encounters traffic congestion
after he's passed the HOT lane entrance, the toll
alternative does him no good. But if drivers subscribe
to Trichord's data services -- RatRace USA costs $9
per month -- they know ahead of time how much delay
they will encounter. They can weigh the savings
in time against the cost of the toll before getting
into the car.
Delivering real-time traffic data to
motorists will help them take full advantage of the transportation options that HOT lanes will
provide
them. Real-time data combined with HOT lanes
represents a win-win scenario for everyone. Motorists
enjoy more alternatives, thus more control, over their
commutes, while the state collects tolls, paying for
the conversion from HOVs to HOTs and perhaps even
raising enough money to fund other
transportation projects.
While
Trichord has an undisputed coolness factor working
for it, it's not the only Intelligent Transportation
System game in town. A key vendor, SmarTek Systems, manufactures accoustic
sensors that can be deployed in a traffic corridor
to monitor traffic conditions and coordinate traffic
signals. Typically, cars engage in stop-and-go
driving, rushing from one stoplight to the next.
Smart transportation systems would expedite
"platooning," or the movement of large
cohorts of cars at high speeds through sequenced
stoplights. "If you have detection in advance
of the stoplights, you can adjust the timing and
extend the green light," explains Greg Peiper,
a SmarTek v.p.
At
a cost of roughly $100,000 to rig a major intersection
with sensors, overheard beams and communications
boxes, a major transportation corridor with
50 stoplights could be outfitted for around $5
million. Coordinating the works might cost a couple
of million more. (Arlington County recently hooked
up 65 intersections to an "adaptive signal
control" system for $2.4 million.) Now, do
the math. What makes more sense -- use sensors and
signal controls to squeeze an extra 10 percent to 20
percent capacity out of a transportation corridor
for $7 million, or add an extra two lanes (one each
way) at the cost of tens of millions of dollars per mile?
Achieving
incremental gains by tweaking traffic light signals,
the rate of flow on Interstate on-ramps and other
such micro-projects doesn't make a statement of
"Your Tax Dollars at Work" as bold as a
construction crew laying a carpet of steaming
asphalt. But it may be vastly more economical in
urban environments where the cost of acquiring right
of way and widening roads can be prodigious.
The
advantages of Intelligent Transportation Systems
seem so
obvious I can't understand why the Warner administration
hasn't elevated it to a top priority -- or why
Republican legislators aren't pushing the executive
branch to move
more aggressively. Fearing that I might be
overlooking something, I checked in with
Philip Shucet, the Commonwealth Transportation
Commissioner, for a reality check.
Collecting
and disseminating real-time traffic data is part of
the transportation solution, Shucet says. "I
don't believe we've finished building our
infrastructure yet. But
realizing the enormous cost and environmental impact
associated with the infrastructure, it's only
prudent to look at traffic demand management. And
technology is part of that."
Real-time
traffic data would work best where there are
alternatives to driving, such as buses and light
rail, Shucet says. If Virginians don't do a good job of
providing those alternatives -- and they do
cost money -- "the situation isn't likely to change
much."
But
the commissioner conceded that real-time information might well
make HOT lanes work more effectively. A
public-private partnership has put a HOT lane
proposal on the table in Northern Virginia. If
information technology could bolster the financial
returns on that project, he suggested, it might inspire similar
proposals elsewhere in the state. Combining
real-time traffic info with increased private
investment in transportation projects could make a
big impact.
Likewise,
Shucet sees potential to use sensors and real-time
data to push more cars through existing
transportation corridors. Traditionally, VDOT has
focused attention on road and highway construction. Perhaps
it's time to put more emphasis on operational
efficiency as well, he says. "We've got to
think about how our organization is going to change
and adapt" to achieve operational excellence.
Given
the magnitude of the transportation problems
Virginia faces, sensors, signals and HOT lanes by
themselves won't keep up with ever-increasing
traffic counts. In the long run, Virginia must
address the increasingly scattered, low-density
pattern of development that forces people to take
longer and more frequent car trips to get anywhere.
But reforming the way we design and build our
communities and transportation systems requires
fundamental reforms to governmental structures that
have no prospect of taking place any time soon.
At
the same time, Virginia voters have demonstrated
repeatedly that they are in no mood for tax
increases. Unable to raise taxes and unwilling to
reform Virginia's dysfunctional pattern of
development, policy makers have few alternatives.
Either they aggressively explore ways to apply state-of-the-art
sensor and signaling technologies, in conjunction
with market mechanisms like HOT lanes, or they
consign the rest of us to a lifetime of ever longer,
teeth-grinding commutes.
-- October
20, 2003
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